Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Washington Wizards

Coach: Eddie Jordan
2006-2007 Record: 41-41
06-07 Expected Record: 39.5 - 42.5
Offensive Rating: 109.8 (4th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 110.9 (28th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 49.1% (18th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 94.1 (5th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

I want to like Gilbert Arenas. Really, I do. I think he has tried harder than most athletes to connect with fans, and his blogging efforts have spearheaded a movement of NBA player blogs. I think he genuinely tries hard to get people interested in not only himself, but in the NBA as a whole. The problem is that, whatever intentions he may have, Gilbert comes across as a moron. He has no filter, so he ends up saying a bunch of really stupid stuff. Attitude-wise, he's got a me-against-the-world perspective that has served him well in motivating him to improve from 2nd rounder to All-Star, but at this point, that chip on his shoulder is a bit too big, and he needs to learn how to tuck it away and put team success ahead of his individual performance. On the court, Agent Zero is one of the toughest matchups in the league, and nearly impossible to check 1 on 1. He's blindingly quick, he shoots well from all over the court, and he gets to the line as well as anyone in the game. In addition to all that, he relishes the big moment, when he can take a team on his back and bury that game-winner at the buzzer. He's one of the few guys in the league who legitimately scares you with the ball in his hands at the end of a close game. Defensively, it's another story. Gilbert doesn't seem to have inclination to apply his physical gifts to defense, preferring instead the "matador"-style of defense.

I think Caron Butler gets overlooked a lot when you're talking about the top players in the East, but he quietly goes about his business and is consistently one of the better 2-way forwards out there. He's an excellent defensive player when he wants to be and is a great rebounder, as well as being a very good offensive player. Butler isn't much of a perimeter shooter, but he has a great mid-range game and he's an excellent free throw shooter. In fact, the biggest complaint about Butler's game might be that he doesn't get to the line enough, given that he spends a lot of time slashing to the rim and that he shoots such a high percentage from the stripe. If he can work on drawing contact and getting to the line more, he'd become a much more efficient offensive player. Of course, on the defensive end, Butler suffers from Wizarditis, also known as a complete and utter distain to giving any effort on defense. All the tools and talent is there, but too often the attitude isn't

You've got to respect Antwan Jamison. He's not particularly flashy, and he plays against guys with 2-3 inches on him a lot, but he's got great hands and a quick release, so he gets tons of garbage points around the basket. That used to be as far as his game went, but in recent years he has really improved his three-point stroke, becoming a true threat from there as well. He's a tough matchup because he can score in bunches, and he can also score naturally in the flow of the offense without many plays run for him because he moves so well without the ball. Of course, this comes at a cost because Jamison has never been confused with a good defender. As you'll note, this is kind of a theme for the Wizards.

The platoon of Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas is, shall we say, not so good. They're both fairly solid rebounders and shotblockers, but they're also both very bad offensive players. The extent of their offense is that they can dunk it if you throw it to them, neither can shoot free throws, and both are turnover machines.

Antonio Daniels is highly underrated. Sure, he doesn't play defense, but offensively he's one of the best backup guards in the game. He's a very smart player who shoots well, draws fouls as well as anyone (one of the league's highest rates of FTAs per FGAs), and passes well without turning the ball over much. Very solid, very overlooked.

Nick Young is a great talent and he has the potential to be very good one day, but he's not really what the Wiz needed. They desperately need a defensive post presence of some sort, and they didn't get one. They've got plenty of perimeter scoring, but they're awfully thin on the inside.

X-Factor: Andray Blatche - I've read a lot about Blatche's great talent and his potential to be a dominating rebounder and shotblocker. I've also read a lot about his immaturity and lack of interest in practice. If he could get his head on straight, Blatche could be the interior presence that the Wiz need to give them some semblance of a decent defense, which, given their explosive offense, would make the Wiz a very tough team. On the other hand, if he continues down his current path, Blatche will be riding on the Kwame Brown Express to nowhere.

Overview

The story of the Wizards last year was pretty simple. Great offense, terrible defense. That was about it. Very simply, Washington's big three were going to expend all their energy trying to outscore you, and they succeeded enough times to get into the playoffs. Of course, the end of their season was then ruined when injuries to Arenas and Butler kept them out of the postseason, all but ensuring that the Wiz had no chance.

Prediction

For a team that finished 7th in the East and showed less defensive intensity than a middle school girls team, the Wiz seemed surprisingly content to stand pat on what they had. The fact is that this team got great years from all 3 of their best players and were still very mediocre. This year they'll be facing tougher competition from an improved Eastern conference, and Arenas is still battling injuries early in the season. I just can't see this team sniffing the playoffs this year, they just don't give any defensive effort.

10th in the East - The Enigmas

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Toronto Raptors

Coach: Sam Mitchell
2006-2007 Record: 47-35
06-07 Expected Record: 44-38
Offensive Rating: 107.2 (9th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 105.8 (12th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 50.4% (10th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 92.6 (9th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

That Chris Bosh guy, he's pretty good. I remember watching the US Team's Red/White game over the Summer and thinking that he looked like Tim Duncan-Lite. He faces up a lot and is tough to stop because he's got such great quickness for a big man. He's also an exceptional mid-range shooter, so you can't just play off him. He's got great touch around the rim, and defensively he blocks shots without fouling. His big problem so far has been injury. The Raptors need him to shake off the foot problems that bothered him this summer, cause they don't have a prayer without him.

The Two-Headed Monster of T. Jose Forderon gives the Raps surprisingly good production at the point guard position. Ford had the best year of his young career, becoming a more proficient mid-range shooter and continuing to cut down on his turnovers (2.55 A/T Ratio). He had a great year last year, but it didn't seem very fluke-like, and I don't think there's much reason to expect him to play worse this season. He's a high-usage guy who is probably the one guy on the team outside of Bosh who can get hot and really carry the load for a stretch. Calderon, on the other hand, is a low-usage, high-efficiency guy who does a great job coming off the bench. He's an excellent passer and mid-range shooter, and last year he was an obscenely good finisher around the rim (63.8%). You can probably expect that percentage to drop off, but I also expect that Calderon will add more of a perimeter shot this year, which should offset that somewhat. Defensively he's very solid, and at 6'3 has the height to make it tough to shoot over him (as opposed to Ford, who often might as well not even be there).

Raise your hand if you knew who Anthony Parker was before last season (put it down, I know you're lying). Parker came back to the NBA after a long hiatus in Europe and ended up being one of the keys to Toronto's success. He was killer from behind the arc, draining  44% of his looks from downtown, and was one of the more underrated defenders in the league last year. Most likely he won't shoot quite as well this year as he shot last year, but his defense should still be plenty of reason to get him plenty of minutes.

I'm kind of torn on the acquisition of Kapono. On the one hand, I love that the Raps are surrounding Bosh with shooters on the wings, Kapono is a great fit for the team. On the other hand, they overpaid for him, and he doesn't do anything besides shoot. Defense and rebounding all seem to be foreign concepts to Jason, but man does he have a pretty shooting stroke, to the tune of a league-leading 51.4% from three-point land last year. Kapono has been a great shooter his whole career, so there's little reason to think he'll fall off too much, and that kind of shooting can forgive a lot of wrongs.

Word is that Carlos Delfino's perimeter shot looked WAY better over the summer than it has in previous years, which is good news for the Raps. Delfino has made good progress in each of his professional seasons, and he should fit in well with the international flavor that the Toronto has going on. He loves playing in the open court, and he's got very good court vision for a forward. Defensively, Delfino is above-average, and he's a very good rebounder for his position. He'll probably be the main backup at the 2 and 3 spots, and if his jumpshot really is that improved, he could steal the starting spot from Kapono.

Garbajosa is another one of those guys who statistics don't do a good job of quantifying. He's a pretty bad offensive player and he's not a very good rebounder, but his defensive toughness and versatility made him a big part of the Raptors' improvement as a defensive team last year (from 28th in the league to 12th). He's the consummate effort guy, and you love to have guys like that on the bench. In addition, he's a very good passer and shoots fairly well from the perimeter (34.2%).

X-Factor: Andrea Bargnani - He's 6'10, European, and has a quick release on his jumper, so he'd better get used to hearing the Dirk comparisons. While it's far too early to make that judgment, the talent is obviously there. Already, we've seen a bit of a nasty streak and penchant for trying to dunk over people in Bargnani that European guys sometimes lack, and that's a good thing. He moves really well for a big guy, and of course he's got that very good jumpshot. His struggles last year (defense, decision-making) are common mistakes for young players, and not surprising for a 21-year old player coming over from the European game, he also improved a huge amount in the second half of last year. He's got a lot to work on, rebounding and defense being the highest priority, but Bargnani should be a solid player, and possibly a star in the making. His playing style and ability to hit from the outside makes him a great compliment to Bosh in the interior, and his improvement will go a long way towards determining where this team finishes.

Overview

The Raptors made a huge jump in the standings last year by becoming a much better defensive team. They went from being the 3rd worst defensive team in the league to being above-average, which made a huge difference in the win column. The additions of Parker, Garbajosa, and Rasho Nesterovic made a big improvement, especially since they were replacing the likes of Charlie Villanueva, Jalen Rose, and Mike James. That defensive jump took them from having the 4th worst record in the East to having the 4th best. Offensively, the Raptors shoot a high percentage and very rarely turn the ball over, making them very efficient despite being the league's worst offensive rebounding club. On the defensive end, Toronto rebounded surprisingly well, getting quality rebounding from basically every spot on the floor instead of having multiple dominant post rebounders.

Prediction

The success of the Raptors this season will be largely dependent on the health of Chris Bosh. If his foot problems turn out to be no big deal, then Toronto should easily make the playoffs and be a threat in the postseason. The additions of Delfino and Kapono should improve the team, and it's not unreasonable to think they'll be a 45-47 win team. More importantly, I like the way this team is being built. They remind me a lot of the Spurs. They found a great big man to build around, and they're surrounding him with good defensive players, good shooters, and guys who take care of the ball. There's a good mix of youth and veteran talent here, and I think that bodes well for both the present and the future.

4th in the East - Playoffs or Bust

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Philadelphia 76ers

Coach: Maurice Cheeks
2006-2007 Record: 35-47
06-07 Expected Record: 33-49
Offensive Rating: 103.7 (26th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 106.8 (16th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 48% (26th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 90.7 (22nd in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Andre Iguadola surprised me last year, I didn't think he was as good as he showed he was. At this point, the only things keeping him from becoming a star are his jumpshot and his turnovers. He's a great finisher, gets to the free throw line, rebounds well, has great court vision for a G/F, and he's a very good defender. He's a great piece for them to build around, and he may well be an All-Star this year.

I like Andre Miller. He's a terrible long-range shooter, but he's not a bad midrange guy, and he's a very good passer and rebounder for his position. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him traded sometime this year. The Sixers aren't going anywhere, and there are plenty of teams out there looking for a veteran true point guard.

Only in the NBA can a guy with one real basketball skill be getting paid $5 mil a year over the next 4 years. For his career, 56% of the shots Kyle Korver has taken have been 3s. He doesn't play defense, he doesn't rebound, he doesn't pass well, he doesn't get to the free throw line, and he still plays 30 minutes a game. Fortunately for Korver, he's 6'7 and a dead-eye shot, so he'll always be in demand.

What is it with the Sixers and guys who have only one discernable skill. Reggie Evans is a FANTASTIC rebounder, especially for a guy who is 6'8. However, he's a turnover machine, and he doesn't really do anything other than rebound. So, of course, he's also making $4.5 mil a year over the next 4 years. If only they could combine Korver and Evans into some sort of super-rebounding/super-shooting Frankenstein's monster.

Louis Williams has been carving up the summer league for the last two years, but we've yet to see him do much in the league yet. This year he'll probably get a chance to win the backup point guard job and prove that he can be the point guard of the future for the Sixers. He's not much of a shooter at this point, but he's blindingly quick and a pretty good finisher. Look for a semi-breakout year from him this year.

Thaddeus Young is an awesome talent to get as late as the 12th pick. In fact, before the season last year he was regarded by many scouting services as a better prospect than Kevin Durant. While that's obviously not true, Young is a huge talent who should make a big impact a few years down the line. He's still really raw, and his ballhandling and strength will be the two things he really needs to work on, but Young is a solid shooter, a strong finisher, and already has good post moves if he gets a smaller guy on him.

X-Factor: Samuel Dalembert - If the Sixers want to make any noise over the next few years, Dalembert needs to start earning that outrageous contract he got from them. If you're making that kind of money, you can't just be a good rebounder and shotblocker. The Dalembeast either needs to add some offensive component to his game other than turning the ball over an inordinate amount of times, or he needs to become an elite-level shotblocker and rebounder. If he doesn't improve, he might combine with Evans to give the Sixers the most turnover prone and offensively inept frontcourt in the league.

Overview

It was a very strange year in Philadelphia last year. After half a season of terrible play and trade rumors, they finally parted with the face of the franchise, trading Allen Iverson for Andre Miller and some first round picks. Unpredictably, the Sixers then played much better, actually having a winning record with Miller on the floor. Of course, that probably wasn't a good thing, since all those wins probably cost Philly 4-5 spots in the draft. Really, looking at the roster, it's absolutely amazing that this team could be above .500 for half a season.

Prediction

This team has little hope of continuing the success that they ended last season with. They're turnover prone, they have no post scoring presence at all, and they have no good shooters outside of Korver. I'd expect to see Miller traded sometime this season if they can find a taker (Atlanta would be a good choice). The nucleus of Young, Carney, Iggy, Williams, and Dalembert has the potential to be good since they're all such great athletes, but all of those guys have a long way to go before this team will be a contender.

14th in the East - If You're Bad in the East, You're Really Bad

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Orlando Magic

Coach: Stan Van Gundy
2006-2007 Record: 40-42
06-07 Expected Record: 43-39
Offensive Rating: 104.6 (24th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 104.4 (7th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 50% (13th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 89.9 (26th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

 

Dwight Howard is a monster. I watched him on the US team over the summer and was struck by how much he stood out among some of the world's best players. He's just completely physically overpowering, almost like a young Shaq. Scary thought, Howard is only 21 and would be a senior in college this year without early entry. He's really turnover prone and doesn't shoot well from the line, and he's still a dominant player. The turnovers are a common problem with young players, and he showed some improvement from the charity stripe in the preseason. He's still very raw on the offensive end, but he's a solid offensive player because of his incredible physical gifts. He's already an elite rebounder and very good shotblocker, once he polishes up his offensive game, watch out.

The Magic paid Rashard Lewis WAY too much, but he's still a very good player. He's an extremely efficient scorer who can shoots great percentages and doesn't turn the ball over much. If you could quibble with any part of Lewis's offensive game it's that he doesn't get to the free throw line much, though he's been getting better at that the last few years as he's developing more of a post-up game. Defensively, he's really limited despite his length and athletic gifts. He's going to have to play mostly power forward this year with the Injury to Tony Battie, and he doesn't do well with banging in the post. I wouldn't be surprised to see Orlando play a good deal of zone this year where Lewis can be a decent asset due to his length.

Hedo Turkoglu is, in many ways, a very similar player to Lewis. He's a very good perimeter shooter, and a poor defender despite his size. He was set to lose a lot of minutes with the acquisition of Lewis, but the injury to Battie gives him an opportunity to play a big role and prove his value to the team. He's actually a very good ballhandler and distributor for his size, posting a great assist ratio for a non-PG. He's another guy who would benefit greatly from playing in a zone due to his length.

I would expect Ariza to take over most of Keith Bogans' minutes this year. He's a great athlete who rebounds really well for a SF, and is among the best finishers in the league (68.5% of his FG attempts were right at the rim, and he made 64.2% of those shots). He's a pretty terrible shooter, but he's the one player on the Magic who is a really dynamic slasher on the wings. He's also developing into a really good defensive player with his quickness, averaging 2 steals per 40 minutes so far in his career.

I was really surprised when I watched J.J. Redick playing in the preseason. Now, I know tha preseason rarely means anything, but I watched one game where he missed 4 or 5 wide open shots. For most players, that's not a big deal, but Redick NEVER missed wide-open shots in college, it's what made him such a great player. He can't play defense at all (guys were driving by him like he wasn't even there), and he's not a great ballhandler, so he can't just be a good shooter, he has to be a great shooter. It could be nothing, and he could end up shooting fine this season, but it was pretty shocking to watch J.J. front rim jumper after jumper.

X-Factor: Jameer Nelson - Nelson really came back to earth last year after having a sensational second year. His shooting percentages really plummeted, most noticeably finishing around the rim, where his percentage dropped 80 points. Nelson is such a young player that it's tough to determine which year's result to trust. I'm inclined to think that Nelson will return more to the form he showed 2 years ago. Despite his lack of height, Nelson was been a good finisher and rebounder throughout his playing career because he's so strong, and I just can't see him shooting so poorly around the rim again. Also, with the improvement of Howard and all the shooters around him, as well as Nelson's own improvement, we can probably expect his assist totals to go up by a substantial amount. If he ends up being a MIP candidate as some are predicting for this season, the Magic will be in real good shape.

Overview

Last year was a really good year for the Magic by most accounts. Despite some regression from their young point guard, they leapt into the playoffs behind a full year from Grant Hill and a huge jump from Dwight Howard. They won with defense, relying on the twin shotblocking machines of Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic. Offensively, Orlando actually did a decent job in most categories, shooting above average from the field, rebounding real well on the offensive end, and getting to the free throw line a lot. Their one problem was turnovers, and it absolutely killed their offensive efficiency. With turnover machines Milicic and Howard getting the ball a lot in the post, the team turned the ball over more often than any other team in the league. In the offseason, the Magic decided to whip out their checkbooks in a big way, signing Rashard Lewis to a huge max deal, but losing Hill and Milicic at the same time.

Prediction

This year projects to be a very different look from last year with their personnel change. Replacing Milicic with Lewis and losing Battie for the year will hurt them defensively, but with defensive-minded Stan Van Gundy as coach and the presence of Howard underneath, they still figure to be a good defensive team. Offensively, Lewis is going to offer a big upgrade, but most of their offensive development is going to be determined by the improvement of their young guys (Howard, Nelson, and Ariza) and their ability to cut down on turnovers. Realistically, I think we can expect a 45-46 win season from the Magic, but they're not yet really a threat to win the Eastern Conference. I'd give them one more year to grow and mesh together before expecting real big things out of them.

5th in the East - Playoffs or Bust

 

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

New York Knicks

Coach: Isiah Thomas
2006-2007 Record: 33-49
06-07 Expected Record: 33-49
Offensive Rating: 105.5 (17th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 108.9 (24th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 49.4% (16th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 90.8 (20th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Marbury is a scoring point, always has been, always will be. There have been attempts over the years to turn him into a pass-first guy, but it doesn't work. He's actually a pretty efficient scorer, he's just more of 2 guard than a distributing point. His overall numbers last year were down from his career numbers, but he actually had a very efficient year as far as scoring the ball. He got to the free throw line more often and shot the best 3PT percentage of his career. The main problem with Marbury is that he just doesn't fit with this team. Even at his best, he's not a great outside shooter, and he isn't the distributor that this team needs. He'd work much better on a team like Miami or Cleveland where someone else (Lebron or Wade) can be the primary playmaker.

You know who's been really overrated the last few years? Jamal Crawford, that's who. He shoots terrible percentages because he's not a great shooter, but keeps settling for long range shots. Last year he shot more three-pointers than layups, and over 20% of his shots were long two-pointers. If you shoot 32% from behind the line, you can't hoist up shots like that. He's a good free throw shooter and is actually a pretty good distributor for a scoring combo guard, but his reliance on a poor jumpshot really kills him.

Eddie Curry does one thing well, and that's score around the rim. He's terrible at everything else. Turnovers, rebounding, free throw shooting, defense, every other facet of the game. Lucky for Curry, post scoring as at an absolute premium in the NBA today. That said, this team would be way better off if David Lee took more minutes from Curry. Curry just has way too many weaknesses in his game.

I really didn't like the Zach Randolph move, even though they gave up almost nothing to get him. Randolph isn't a good defender, he isn't great at getting to the line (though he does shoot a good percentage from the stripe), and he doesn't shoot a very good percentage for a post player. He's not a good compliment to Eddy Curry as they're similar offensive players, both have problems with their weight, and both are really bad defenders. Randolph is a very good rebounder though, which might be the biggest thing he brings to the table for them. Still, his contract is huge over the next 4 years, and he's just not worth that, especially in New York.

I, like everyone else, bashed the Balkman pick at the time, but it's turned out pretty well for the Knicks. It still wasn't a great pick because they could've gotten him much later in the draft, but he's a solid talent. He's important because he's really the only good defender on the team. Energy guys like Balkman coming off the bench are really important, especially for a team like the Knicks which has so many score-first players.

There's not a team in the league that wouldn't love to have David Lee coming off the bench. He's a rebounding machine, and almost single-handedly made the Knicks a decent rebounding team (cause it sure as heck wasn't Eddie Curry). He's a great player because he knows his limits offensively, so he shoots a great percentage, and he's probably the best instinctive rebounder in the league.

X-Factor: Quentin Richardson - Q has a really unique skillset, and it's one that fits really well for this Knicks team. He's a really good 3PT shooter and a solid rebounder for his position, both things New York definitely needs. The problem with Richardson is that he's injury-prone, having missed large chunks of 4 of the last 5 seasons.He's battled with his weight at times in his career, and it has caused him a lot of minor injuries and back problems. The Knicks really need him to be healthy because he can be effective without the ball in his hands and because he works hard on defense, which you can't say for most of their guys. He's also probably the best shooter on the team.

Overview

The Knicks are a prime case subject in the importance of chemistry. They had loads of talent last year, but so many players on their team have similar skillsets that they just don't work well together. On top of that, they were a terrible defensive team and didn't rebound well when David Lee wasn't on the floor. Offensively, their lack of a true point guard was readily apparent in the fact that they weren't a good shooting team and the only team that turned the ball over more often than New York was Orlando. So, with so many bad contracts and similar players who don't play defense on the roster,what did Isiah decide to? Well, he brought in the massive contract of Zach Randolph, who is a very similar player to Eddy Curry except that he can rebound.

Prediction

I just don't see a whole lot of difference between this year's Knicks team and last year's team. Sure, they added Randolph, but does he really bring them anything they didn't have before? The essential problem is that their guards aren't the kind of shooters or distributors who you would want for a team based around post players like Curry and Randolph who require a lot of touches. Crawford and Marbury both require the ball in their hands for large portions of the clock in order to be effective, but both their posts also need the ball, and neither of them are good passers. The Knicks will have dual black holes in the middle, cause when the ball goes in to Curry or Z-Bo, it doesn't come back out very often. On the defensive end, they're just as bad as they were last year. They have no shotblockers, they don't even have any servicable post defenders. Balkman is a good defender, but he's really the only one on the team. Richardson is strong and he works hard, but he's just too slow to guard the quicker guys he's often matched up against. In an improved Eastern conference, this team just isn't built right to be a playoff team.

14th in the East - The Enigmas