A week ago when I wrote my last post, I almost posted something about the Trail Blazer's 5-game winning streak, but I decided it was a bit premature and that they probably wouldn't keep it up. Silly me. Portland has added 3 very strong wins to that, and it's time to take a look at what the Blazers are doing.

You can basically dismiss the first three games of the streak because they came against pretty poor competition (man did I miss the mark with Memphis). However, the last 5 wins have been extremely impressive, coming against 4 Western Conference playoff teams (Utah twice), and playing without LaMarcus Aldridge. Perhaps even more impressive than the level of competition is the fact that 2 of the wins came on the road, where the young Blazers have really struggled. So, what is Portland doing so well that they've managed to win 5 quality games without Aldridge's 19 and 8 each night?

First of all, note that the Blazers haven't changed their mindset with Aldridge out. They've been one of the slowest teams in the league this year, with only Detroit playing less possessions per game than Portland. Through the streak, they haven't upped the tempo at all, and in fact have even slowed down a bit more, averaging a turtle-slow 90.6 possessions per game. Another important statistic is that they haven't been shooting much better than usual these last 5 games (roughly equivalent FG% and lower 3PT%), which actually bodes well for the future since it indicates that they aren't just on a hot streak. Lastly, the Blazers' assist, turnover, steal, and block totals are almost exactly on their season average during this streak, nothing that jumps out there.

So what are the Blazers doing? Well, for the season they're one of the league's poorer defensive teams, with their defensive rating of 104.4 coming in at 21st in the league. During this 5 game streak against 4 good offensive teams (New Orleans was the worst at 16th in the league offensively), Portland has posted a defensive efficiency of 100.6, an improvement of nearly 4 points per hundred possessions. That's a huge jump for a team to make. Where did the improvement come from? The biggest factor is the increase in minutes for Joel Przybilla in Aldridge's absence. Przybilla may be an offensive non-factor, but he's a terrific defender and rebounder, and Aldridge just isn't a defensive presence at this point in his career. The other significant factor is that less minutes are going to defensively-challenged Martell Webster, and more are going to solid defenders Travis Outlaw and James Jones.

So, the defense is better, but they've had a few offensive problems without Aldridge, right? Not exactly. Even more impressive than their defensive improvement is the Blazers' offensive execution without Aldridge. Their offensive efficiency for the season is 102.7, but during the streak it has been a blistering 111.5, a point and a half above Dallas' league-leading season average. They put up a 128 offensive rating AT DENVER (the second best defense in the league)!! What's going on here? They're shooting about the same percentage, they're turning the ball over the same amount, they're not getting more offensive rebounds. What the heck is making Portland so much better offensively? The answer is that they're going to the easiest place to get points, namely the free-throw line. the Blazers are playing aggressively, getting to the line nearly 6 more times per game during this stretch, and shooting 3 percentage points higher from the stripe. The two driving forces behind this change are Outlaw and Brandon Roy (who has been spectacular), who are both averaging around 6 FTAs per game in the last 5 games. The lesson? Practice your foul shots kids, they aren't fancy, but they win games.

While we are at it, I'd like to take a look at those two guys, who really have fueled this streak. The way Outlaw is playing this year, he'd be a front-runner for Sixth Man of the Year if this weren't The Year of the Reserve (Manu, Terry and Barbosa all playing so well). He's a terrific athlete and we've talked about his potential for years, but this year he has started to put together consistent performances. He's averaging 17-6 with a block and a steal in 30 minutes a game during December (including five 20-point games). Between he and James Jones (who is playing out of his mind right now) and the occasional strong game from Webster, the Blazers have a very strong SF rotation.

















Meanwhile, Roy has been playing out of his mind. It still boggles my mind how this guy slipped as far as he did in the draft (when he was obviously the best player in that draft class). His hesitation move in the lane is as good as anyone in the league. He'll beat his man and get into the lane, then slow up for half a second to let the big step towards him, then he goes right to the rim, often completely unchallenged because he got the post player so far out of position. It's really subtle, but between that and his ability to crossover in traffic, he's one of the league's best at maneuvering in the paint. His December has been ridiculous as he's putting up 22-5-7 with under 2 turnovers a game.

Looking forward at the schedule, Portland plays the next 5 games at home, where they've been fantastic (10-3), and only 2 of those are difficult opponents (Toronto and Denver). With a little luck, it's entirely possible that the Blazers could be 18-12 and riding a 13 game winning streak as they start their road trip in Utah at the end of December. This seems like a good time to mention that the odds of a sub-.500 team having a 10-game winning streak are 3%. Now, that's not to say that the Blazers are world-beaters, but I think we can say with some reasonable certainty that this is a solid team. At worst, they're an absolute menace at home, and you certainly don't look at a game against them and say "that one's a gimme".

As one final note, I'm feeling renewed confidence in saying that Portland will bring home a championship within the next five years. They have a solid team built of basically all young players this year, and they have even more talent waiting in the wings. Remember, in addition to Oden they own the rights to Rudy Fernandez, Joel Freeland, and Petteri Koponen, who are playing overseas (I've read scouts say that all 3 of those guys have lottery-level talent and potential, but they all fell to late-first round because they would have to wait in Europe to develop). This team has more young talent than any two other teams in the league combined. It's a good time to be a Blazers fan.

Two posts in two days, I'm on a freaking roll :P

I normally like to keep things mixed up and not just spit out a smattering of NBA opinions day after day, but I can't help myself. I watched the tail end of Houston-Detroit and then Utah-Phoenix last night, and I just had too many thoughts bouncing around to not write.

-Before I move on, I just want to go back and look at that quote I posted about Dwight "The Hammer" Howard in my last post. I'll repost it so you don't have to go look for it, and because it's so awesome.

At one point Suns guard Raja Bell, never one to shy away from contact, asked assistant Alvin Gentry what approach to take when Howard comes steaming down the lane on a screen-and-roll.

"Should I step in and plug?" said Bell.

"I'd just get the hell out of the way in that situation," answered Gentry.

"Just making sure we were on the same page," said Bell.

I didn't really harp on this much in my last post, and I should have. Bell had his coach basically eschew solid defensive positioning because of how powerful Howard is. That, my friends, is respect. There are few players who had that kind of intimidation factor, guys like Shaq or Barkley, who you make you genuine fear for your safety.

- Absolutely brutal performance on the foul line by Houston, and it nearly cost them the game. It just became epidemic, and normally very good free throw shooters (Yao and T-Mac) were struggling. You know, I was really high on the Rockets before the season if they could stay healthy, but even healthy they don't look all that great. In addition to some personnel problems, they lack the mental toughness necessary for success. Some of their bit guys bring the physical toughness (Hayes, Battier, Wells), but as a team, and it seems especially their two stars, they lack mental sharpness. Particularly telling was this quote:

"It's mental. It's just you and the basket," said McGrady, who missed all five of his attempts. "And the fans definitely don't make it easy on you. Every time you miss, [they say], 'Awwww!' 'Awwww!' That's the worst thing you can do to a player -- especially at home."
I've always been a T-Mac fan, but that's not what you want your star to say.

- I don't get some of the things Rick Adelman is doing with this team. How does Mike James not play while Rafer Alston plays 35 minutes? Every time I've watched Houston this year, James has outplayed Alston. Also, there are times when Yao has it going and just can't be stopped, and then inexplicably they'll pull him out to run pick and roll with McGrady, who ends up taking a tough 1 on 1 shot most of the time. If Yao is scoring at will on the low block, why not go to him every single time until the opponent makes a change. It's not like teams can easily take him away, Yao is one of the best big men when it comes to passing out of the double team.

- If Yao wants to call out his team for being soft, maybe he should wait until he can run the length of the court 5-6 times without panting and grabbing his knees. Everything I've ever read about Yao says he's very dedicated to improving his game, and I respect that, but he has to improve his conditioning.

- Watching the highlights of Detroit's game against Memphis Tuesday and comparing it to this one reveals a lot about the Pistons' offense. The Pistons are phenomenal against bad defensive teams, since they're so efficient and they make you pay for every mistake you make. However, they tend to struggle against upper-echelon defensive teams because they don't really have anyone who can create their own shot. They're going to win a lot of games because they're a solid offensive team and they have a strong defense, but one of the reasons I don't see them as a title contender is because they struggle so much against good defenses, and they'll certainly see that in Boston, San Antonio, Houston, Denver, even Chicago (who are 2-0 so far against the Pistons).

- Kevin Durant has dropped 30+ in 3 of his last 7 games. That slamming sound you heard? That was the sound of the door closing on anyone else's chance at RoY.

- If you wanted to show a young player the importance of fundamentals like using your weak hand or putting arc on your jumper, you could've just sat them down in front of the Jazz-Suns game and said "just watch Nash and Boozer". I'm firmly convinced that Nash is the best weak-hand passer ever, he's just amazing. He's also got one of the most consistent shooting strokes you'll see on a player today, every jumper is textbook. Nash rarely gets mentioned among the league's elite shooters, he should be. Boozer flies a bit under the radar, but he shoots 58% from the field, and very few of those are dunks. He's as good as anyone in the league at finishing with either hand at the rim, and it makes him extremely effective. His short to mid-range jumper is also a thing of beauty. Few players get the kind of arc on their shots that Boozer does, so despite playing center at 6'9 a lot, he rarely gets his shot blocked. He absolutely killed Yao with this in the playoffs last year, dropping ridiculously high-arcing jumpers over a guy who had 9 inches on him.

- Phoenix and Utah seem like almost mirror images of each other to me. High-scoring, but poor defensively. Star point guards who are great shooters and have exceptional floor vision. Star F/Cs who are offensively-minded and don't play great defense. Versatile, athletic, do-everything forwards who are top defenders. Defensive-minded shooting guards. Obviously, there are still a lot of differences, but they strike me as very similar teams. Phoenix's top 7 are better, but Utah's bench runs much deeper.

- If you're Denver, don't you have to be trying as hard as possible to pry Jason Kidd away from the Nets? What better way to re-energize Carmelo (who thrived playing with Kidd on Team USA this summer) and invigorate a stagnant offense? He's also the perfect fit with Iverson because he can guard 2s while Iverson guards point guards, but he lets Iverson play off the ball on offense. He helps them with rebounding (they're in the bottom 10 in the league in that category), and fits right into an up-tempo system. If you're Denver, don't you have to be mortgaging anything and everything to try and get him without giving up AI, Melo, or Camby? I'd be telling the Nets that they have their pick of anyone besides those three, and they can have any draft picks they want over the next few years. How about something like this:

New Jersey gets: Nene, J.R. Smith, Eduajdo Najera, Chucky Atkins, Von Wafer, 08 first-rounder, 09 first-rounder, the kitchen sink.
Denver gets: Kidd

Denver could also use it's $3 mil trade exception to try and take on a multi-year contract for someone in exchange for them sending a 2nd rounder to New Jersey (example: Denver takes on Mark Madsen's contract (3 years remaining) and Minnesota sends a 2nd round pick to New Jersey). It's certainly not a great haul for Jersey, but there really aren't that many trading partners out there who are willing to offer much (or have the contracts to make it happen), and they get a young big man with solid potential, Smith (who oozes potential and could be great, but has an expiring contract if they just want to let him go and save the money), Najera's expiring contract, Atkins, who could be trade bait to another contender along with Najera, Wafer (who has, at very least, torn up the summer league), and 2 first-round picks. It's certainly a better package than what the Nuggets used to get AI. You have to make this offer, don't you? Would anyone want to play a team starting Kidd, AI, Melo, K-Mart, and Camby? That would be a heck of a team.

- Stat of the Night tonight: Brendan Haywood had 12 points and 10 rebounds on 6-8 shooting in 32 minutes. Shaq had 7 points and 6 rebounds on 3-6 shooting in 27 minutes. I did warn you all that Shaq's time as a dominant player was over.

Video of the Day: Power Thirst

Those of you familiar with Pat Forde's Forde-Yard Dash/Forde Minutes will know the format here. 24 names in various NBA thoughts

I'm a bit bummed about the sports world in general after watching my Wolfpack basketball team underachieve game after game and lose to EC FREAKING U (now 1-57 all-time against the ACC). I also lost in my fantasy football playoffs because I have Adrien Peterson (the good one), Kolby Smith, and Carson Palmer, who combined for a grand total of 6 points. Not that I'm bitter or anything.

There have been a bunch of articles over the last few days on ESPN.com and SI.com about Dwight Howard, highlighting what an amazing season he's had so far. David Thorpe's breakdown of Dwight's game (it's an Insider article, sorry if you can't get to it) says basically what I've been saying for months now, that "The Hammer" looks a whole lot like a young Shaq. I particularly liked this article by Jack McCallum (who is an amazing writer), where he gives us this story:
At one point Suns guard Raja Bell, never one to shy away from contact, asked assistant Alvin Gentry what approach to take when Howard comes steaming down the lane on a screen-and-roll.

"Should I step in and plug?" said Bell.

"I'd just get the hell out of the way in that situation," answered Gentry.

"Just making sure we were on the same page," said Bell.

Howard might be the most impressive physical specimen ever to play the center position, and at the rate he's going now, he has a great chance to end up as one of the all-time greats. (This paragraph brought to you by the committee to initiate Dwight "The Hammer" Howard as the official nickname)

You hate to see something happen like the T.J. Ford injury last night. Ford and Al Horford are both classy players and there was no harm intended, but things happen. It sounds like he's going to be alright, and hopefully will be able to return to the court soon. In the meantime, the Raps have Jose Calderon to man the point, so they should be alright. Before the injury, Ford was having his best game of the season, just slicing through the Atlanta defense at will. I think he's the fastest player in the league with the ball in his hands. Defenders give him a huge cushion, but he still blows right past them. Best wishes, T.J., get back soon.

Speaking of Horford, he's throwing up 9 and 10 in 32 MPG and is a big reason why Atlanta has had success early on this season. He definitely makes Shelden Williams expendable, and the Hawks should be trying to move Williams in order to get a PG (Andre Miller anyone?).

What's the earliest that an MVP race has been decided? Barring a MAJOR slump or an injury, I don't see any way LeBron doesn't take home the hardware this year. After watching Cleveland be far and away the worst team in the league for 5 games without him, his value is really highlighted.

Anyone else look at the Spurs-Warriors box score and do a big-time double take. Seriously, Matt Bonner gets 25 and 17? This Spurs team goes 10-11 deep and you can tell by their minutes distribution that they're all about the postseason. Manu is playing like an MVP, and they're taking care to make sure that Duncan will be healthy and rested come playoff time. They look even better now than they were last year.

Celtics haters despair, cause they're getting quality backup minutes out of Big Baby Davis now (8 and 6 in 20 MPG over the last 4 games). Davis also has the best profile picture on ESPN.com. The much maligned Boston bench (Eddie House, Davis, James Posey, Tony Allen) is producing, and doing so efficiently. The big three still need to play less minutes (especially Ray Allen's 39 MPG on two surgically repaired ankles).

I'd just like to point out that in the Denver/LA game I highlighted in my last post, Marcus Camby dropped the ridiculous 0 point, 20 rebound stat line. Just thought you should realize that.

I think it's funny that people keep calling the Heat "most disappointing" or one of the biggest surprises so far. Did you not see this coming, seriously? Were you expecting Shaq to average 20-10? Were you expecting actual production from Penny Hardaway (who just got cut for, get this, Luke Jackson)? This team isn't a disappointment, they just aren't very good.

Game To Watch Tonight: Utah v. Phoenix - Deron against Nash. Two of the league's most dynamic and highest-scoring teams (so strange to say that about a Jerry Sloan team). Not a lot of defense going on in this one, first one to 130 wins.

It's been a while since my last post. I think I kind of burned myself out with my humongous NBA Season preview. Anyway, I came in and turned on the TV a few minutes ago only to see that it was halftime of the Denver/LA game, and Iverson had dropped 33 in the first half. Needless to say, I feel compelled to watch and keep track of just how high that total is going to go. So I'm going to monitor AI and intersperse some other NBA stuff along the way.

Right now AI has 38 with 7:00 left in the 3rd, and Kobe has 4 fouls, so he's being guarded by Sasha Vujacic. Basically, that means he has free reign to do whatever he wants. He just had a play where he danced around Vujacic for a few seconds before getting himself a wide open fadeaway.

You know Denver is going to score, but one of the reasons I thought they could be a real contender was the defensive presence of Camby and Martin, but they haven't been as good a defensive team as I expected because they inexplicably give up tons of open jumpers. Still, the season is young, and all the pieces are there.

There's nothing that LA can do against AI. Farmar just played great defense against him on two fadeaway J's, but Iverson is just so quick and elevates so quickly that he just drilled them both. He's hitting everything. 3 minutes to go in the 3rd, and he's got 47. I think you can just about pencil him in for 60+ right now, there's no one on the Lake Show that can stop him.

It's amazing that LA is still in this game. Denver just keeps giving them wide-open jumpers and they're knocking down enough of them to stay in it. BTW, J.R. Smith checked into the game, missed a lob, turned the ball over, missed a 3, and committed a dumb reach-in foul. Such a huge talent, but the work ethic and basketball mind just aren't there.

End of the 3rd. AI has 49. The way the Lakers have started keying on him, I think he'll probably get 59 or 61 by the end of the night.

Start of the 4th and Kobe is back in the game. Beautiful lob from Camby to Melo. Is there a more underrated passing center than Camby? He never gets mentioned among the league's best passing centers (probably because he isn't European), but every time I watch him he seems to show great court vision from the high post.

Jordan Farmar just got his clock cleaned by a Kenyon Martin screen. Smith ran him right into it bringing the ball up the court, and it took him a few seconds to even get back into the picture.

8:50 left in the game, and AI is still at 49. Nobody else on the Nuggets can hit a jumper.

4:24 left and AI still scoreless in the quarter. Denver has taken the lead though because the rest of the Nuggets have stepped up their production when Iverson is passing out of the double team.

Looks like we're not going to see anything too spectacular. Anyway, I'm off to make a late-night cookout run. I'll probably edit this and add some final thoughts when I get back.

Well, AI ends up with 51 and I think 5 assists in the 4th after they started really keying on him, but LA gets the win. For playing a lot of the game without Kobe and having AI go off like that, that's a very good win for the Lakers. It's obvious that this is a very good offensive team, and that's a tribute to Phil Jackson. Even when Kobe isn't out there, they move the ball well to get open looks. Offense never was the problem though, the problem is on the defensive end, where they still have a lot of issues. Getting Trevor Ariza was a good step, but they still lack anyone on the inside who really intimidates you, and they have a lot of guys (Walton, Radmonovic, Vujacic, Odom often) who are just terrible defenders.

As for Denver, they've got all the pieces. We knew coming into the season that they were tremendously talented, but it's all about attitude and effort with this team. They're one of the more interesting squads to watch the rest of the way, especially with Nene and Atkins coming back from injury.

Some other thoughts from around the league:

Yi continues to surprise me. I know his team got beat by 30, but 9 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 blocks in 29 minutes is a good night of work. I never would have expected him to be as solid as he's been, not this soon.

After watching a bunch of highlights of the Suns outracing the Raptors tonight, it got me thinking, "Has anyone ever passed as well with their off hand as Steve Nash does?"  Seriously, go outside and try dribbling at full speed with your off hand and then, without touching the ball with your strong hand, throw it one-handed across your body to some target 10-15 feet away. Congratulate yourself if you get within 3 feet of it. Seriously, Nash makes that play 2-3 times a game at least and hits his teammates right in the hands. His ability to make the one-handed pass from either side is one of the main things that makes him so effective, Nobody is quicker at delivering the ball.

Impressive win for the Spurs over Dallas without Duncan. Manu Ginobili is just playing at a transcendent level right now. Much like Parker did during last year's playoff run, Manu has taken his game to another level, and the Spurs look incredibly scary because of it. BTW, you think Greg Popovich knows how to keep his team fresh for when it matters? Duncan is playing a career low in minutes, and the Spurs are one of only 4 who have nobody averaging over 35 MPG (with Detroit, Seattle and Toronto). No sane person should be betting against them come playoff time.

Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.

Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.

I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-Ho, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?

The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.

In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.

Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.

Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.

Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.

It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.

Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.

Have A Happy Turkey Day All!!