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    Houston, We Have Liftoff

    Tuesday, February 26, 2008, 12:17 AM EST [General]



    I've been following the Houston Rockets at a distance this whole season, and I was pretty disappointed in them up until recently. I even considered dropping them from my list of contenders at midseason because they just hadn't played well at all. In fact, here's what I said about them on January 25th, 3 games after McGrady came back:

    "They're the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they're an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman's system...However, they've still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing."

    You know, I think 16-1 since McGrady's return might qualify as taking off. So, what's changed in the last few weeks that has Houston playing so well? Like I did a while back with Portland, I'm going to take a look at the Rockets' streak both statistically and what I've seen when I watched them.

    The first thing to note is the recent play of McGrady. I've remarked multiple times on how T-Mac's ball domination and constant isolation plays were killing the Rockets' offense. That's changed since McGrady came back from his injury. He's still scoring, but not as much, and he's taking less shots. The drastic difference though is seen in his passing ability, from 4.6 APG in November to 7 APG in January. McGrady's size gives him the ability to see and pass over basically any defender he's faced with, which is deadly in Rick Adelman's offense which features a lot of back-cuts. He's still a great option to have when the clock is running down and he still has those times when he gets hot and carries the team, but more and more he's fitting into the offense and getting his teammates easy looks.

    The other big thing that's immediately noticeable is the increased production from the PF spot. Luis Scola has begun to start games and get more minutes and he's doing more with them. He moves so well without the ball and he's finally figuring out Adelman's offense, so he's getting himself easy shots and converting (leading to his 58.9% shooting this month). One of the most surprising developments in the league has been emergence of Carl Landry as a legitimate contributor on a playoff team. I panned the drafting of Landry at the time, but 'm eating my words now. He's ridiculously strong and has great hands, so he finishes almost everything he gets near the rim, and he's a pretty decent mid-range shooter. Most impressive might be the way he has quickly adjusted from being the primary option in college to moving off the ball and finding open space for easy shots. He and Scola both are very good with their spacing, and they're making teams pay for helping off them. What surprises me though is that the increased minutes have come at the expense of Chuck Hayes and the Rockets haven't suffered defensively or rebounding the ball. As a result, they've been a much-improved offensive team while maintaining their solid defense.

    So, what do the stats from Houston's streak tell us? Well, most notably they're averaging almost 7 more points per 100 possessions, a huge jump from where they were from the rest of the season. Why are they so much better? Immediately what jumps out are the teams' assist numbers. The Rockets are averaging almost 5 more assists per 100 possessions, and they've assisted on 66% of their made FGs during the streak vs 57.7% for the rest of the year. All that extra ball movement and their turnovers are actually down, averaging 3 less TOs per 100 possessions. That ball movement results in the increased shooting percentages and better offensive efficiency that we see. It certainly looks as though the team is getting adjusted to Adelman's offense.

    Defensively, I think Houston might be playing the best defense of any team in the league right now. I'm not sure how many people realize just how good this defense is because it doesn't jump out at you as you watch them. They don't block a ton of shots or force a lot of turnovers, and if you were just watching them play your team you'd probably think your guys just had a bad shooting night. However, if you pay attention to the Rockets, you'd notice that a lot of teams seem to have "bad shooting nights" against them. It's the thing that statistics finds almost impossible to quantify in individual players, the ability to play solid D and force tough shots. Houston has a few guys who are very good at making you take a tough shot over them (Battier, Hayes, Landry), but they also play fantastic help defense, rotating well in pick and roll situations and doing a good job of "helping the helper". Lastly, of course, there's Yao, who has the ability to block or alter shots without leaving his feet, meaning that he doesn't give up rebounding position to make your shot tougher. Put it all together and you've got a really good defensive team.

    So what do things look like going forward for the Rockets? Well, first of all they play their next four games at home against Washington, Memphis, Denver and Indiana before they go play at Dallas, so there's a pretty good chance that they run this streak to 16 games. More importantly, this doesn't seem to me like a team that just got hot. This is a team that has genuinely made some huge progress during the season. I think McGrady came back from injury looking to integrate himself in the offense, and that Scola is getting better and better as he adjusts to the NBA game. Combine that with the emergence of Landry and the recent acquisition of Bobby Jackson (who played under Adelman in Sacramento) and you have a deep and talented team that is improving each game. The McGrady injury is looking more and more like a blessing in disguise. It got the rest of the team sharing the ball and moving it around well in order to score, and when McGrady came back he fit in and the role players were better for the experience. Also, that's 11 less games on McGrady's back this season, meaning he should be fresher come playoff time.

    To me, few teams are exhibiting the kind of offense/defense balance that Houston is showing right now, and I think they're legitimately one of the top title threats. Obviously there's almost no predicting who comes out of the West this year. However, after seeing how they've begun to play offensively, I feel more comfortable now with saying the Rockets are contenders than I was at the beginning of the season.

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    Trade Thoughts, and other assorted observations.

    Saturday, February 23, 2008, 03:05 AM EST [General]

    I love the trade deadline. I really do. Watching contenders load up for the playoff run, watching inept GMs heinously screw up, it's really a great time. Anyway, now that the wheeling and dealing is done, I thought I'd go back and review this year's midseason trades (leaving a few out because, frankly, they're boring and not of great consequence).

    Utah gets Kyle Korver
    Philadelphia gets Gordan Giricek and a 1st round pick.


    It passed with very little fanfare at the time, but in the wake of Utah's 19-3 record since acquiring Korver, people are starting to notice. One of the Jazz's big problems during a terrible December was that they couldn't score against zone defenses. Enter Kutcher...I mean Korver. He's one of the league's better spot-up shooters, and he (along with the return of Mehmet Okur) has really given the Jazz the ability to stretch defenses, and their offense has been blistering along ever since.

    For Philadelphia, they get rid of a slightly overpaid piece who wasn't part of their future plans, and they pick up a draft pick. That's about as good as you're going to get for someone like Korver, and trading him opened up more minutes for stud rookie Thaddeus Young.

    Solid trade for both sides

    Lakers get Pau Gasol and a 2010 2nd round pick
    Memphis gets Javaris Crittenton, Kwame Brown Aaron McKie, the rights to Marc Gasol and 1st round picks in 2008 and 2010.

    This deal has been well chronicled already, so I won't say too much. The Lakers getting Gasol without having to give up any stud prospects or any of their solid rotation players was an absolute steal.

    Memphis gave away Gasol for much less than his value, and it ended up not only hurting them here, but also in other trades as the deadline got closer. The net result of this trade is a young point guard who they didn't need (they had two excellent young points already), salary cap relief, 2 draft picks in the low 20s and a guy who would go in the back end of the first round if he were in it this year. Think about it, with the way late first-rounders are a crapshoot, the Griz might not end up with any solid rotation players from this trade. None! How do you trade away an All-Star caliber big man and get no sure-fire rotation players in return? Crittenton has potential, but is he better than Lowry? Because he took so little for Gasol and was grilled for it, Chris Wallace demanded more for Mike Miller and Lowry and wasn't able to get anything for them. So you lose Lowry at the end of the year for nothing because you can't keep all three guards. Why not make this trade closer to the deadline and see what other teams would offer? Were they afraid that the Lakers would take their 30 cents on the dollar offer off the table? Even if ownership was pressuring him to cut salary, this was a terribly mismanaged trade by Wallace.

    Phoenix gets Shaquille O'Neal
    Miami gets Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks


    I'll have some more observations on Shaq later, but I'll say that I'm not as down on this trade as everyone else is. I didn't think Phoenix was a championship contender with Marion, and I think Shaq could possibly give them a puncher's chance. Between the widespread criticism of the deal, playing on a quality team and Phoenix's top-notch medical staff, there's a fairly good chance that Shaq turns back the clock a few years and  improves the team. If nothing else, everybody on the team is re-energized in a way that they've been lacking all year.

    The deal was a slam dunk for Miami. They get cap relief and don't have to buy out Shaq's enormous deal, and they get an All-Star caliber forward in return. If Marion opts out, they get huge cap space. If he doesn't, they get another year of Marion who can help them contend for the playoffs in the East or they can ship him to a contender for future assets.

    Atlanta gets Mike Bibby
    Sacramento gets Shelden Williams, Lorenzen Wright, Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue and a 2008 2nd round pick

    STOP THE PRESSES!!!!! The Hawks made a deal? And it was a good one??? Now, Bibby isn't an All-Star, but he's way better than what the Hawks had at the point. They didn't give up much, Williams wasn't going to get any burn with Horford around, and Bibby might be enough to push Atlanta into the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade.

    Sacramento starts the rebuilding process by getting Williams, who can potential add some post toughness off the bench, and by getting out from under Bibby's salary. They also get more minutes for Beno Udrih and John Salmons. It's a pretty decent return on Bibby all things considered. I'm sure they wish they could've gotten something for Ron Artest too, but getting Bibby's contract off the books was the biggest concern.

    Dallas gets Jason Kidd, Malik Allen and Antoine Wright
    New Jersey gets Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris, Trenton Hassell, Maurice Ager, Desagana Diop and 1st round picks in 2008 and 2010.

    I'm one of the few people who doesn't really like this trade. Listen, I like Kidd as a player and I think he's had a fantastic career, but I think people are really overlooking the areas in which he has declined over the last few years. He isn't a threat at all to get to the rim and finish, and he has declined as a defender. Kidd used to be a defensive terror, but he can't keep up with quick guards anymore and basically has to guard shooting guards. So you're left with Jason Terry trying to guard Paul, Williams, Parker and the rest. Do I think Kidd will be better with better teammates around him? Yes, but I don't think it's going to be nearly as big a difference as everyone thinks due to Dallas' lack of athletes to finish on the break and their isolation-heavy offense. Dallas is hoping that Kidd's veteran presence and toughness is enough to make a big difference, and it's certainly going to help. However, they also gave up their best post defender in Diop. I just don't know if Dallas improved all that much as a team with this trade.

    The Nets ended up with a solid young point guard, two first rounders and expiring contracts. Considering how some superstars have been been traded for much less value recently, you have to consider that a pretty good haul for the Nets. The rebuilding process has a long way to go, but that's a heck of a start.

    San Antonio gets Kurt Thomas
    Seattle gets Brent Barry, Fransisco Elson and a 2009 1st round pick

    Great trade for the Spurs, who are still my favorites to win the title and will be unless Tim Duncan breaks his femur. Not only did the Spurs get a fantastic post defender and veteran who can hit the mid-range jumper, but they keep other contenders from picking up the guy who played the best defense of anyone on Tim Duncan last year. Lastly, the Spurs left themselves just far enough under the luxury tax to sign someone to the veterans minimum, maybe even someone like Brent Barry (who was waived by the Sonics right after the trade).

    For those of you keeping track, that's 3 first round picks that Sam Presti has gotten for practically nothing. First, the Magic traded a 2nd round pick to Seattle in a sign and trade for Rashard Lewis, creating a huge trade exception for the Sonics. Phoenix then traded Thomas and two 1st rounders for that 2nd round pick in a salary dump. Now, Thomas turns into another first round pick. That, my friends, is fantastic work.

    New Orleans gets Bonzi Wells and Mike James
    Houston gets Bobby Jackson and Adam Haluska
    (other assorted stuff that no one cares about to Memphis)

    I love the trade for New Orleans. Rasual Butler has played well enough to make Jackson expendable, and they desperately needed some post help off the bench. Wells isn't a great player, but he's a tough, veteran guy who can create his own shot and get to the line, and that's something you want come playoff time. I'm still not sure if they're legit contenders, but this is a step in the right direction.

    Houston had basically no need for Bonzi with the emergence of Carl Landry (more on him later), and Jackson should help with their backcourt depth. Mike James had fallen out of favor, and Jackson should take some of the load off Rafer Alston.

    Not a groundbreaking trade, but both teams traded guys they don't need anymore for guys who should help them, and that's a good trade.

    Cleveland gets Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace, Delonte West, Joe Smith and a 2009 2nd round pick
    Chicago gets Drew Gooden, Larry Hughes, Cedric Simmons and Shannon Brown
    Seattle gets Ira Newble, Donyell Marshall and Adrian Griffin

    I love the deal for Cleveland, absolutely love it. One thing that people have been overlooking this year is the fact that the Cavs have been a mediocre defensive team so far, a far cry from last year. Wallace isn't the dominant defender that he once was, but he's still an above average rebounder and a guy who can alter shots and gets in position for steals as well as any post in the league. He and Smith (who doesn't suffer Gooden's constant mental lapses) should improve their interior defense. Offensively, Smith is an upgrade over Gooden because he's such a good mid-range shooter, and Wally is a fantastic shooter. LeBron was easy to game plan for last year because he didn't have shooters around him. You space the floor out with shooters and who's going to stop LeBron the way he's playing right now? I think the Cavs just got upgraded to having a puncher's chance as a title contender.

    I have no idea what the Bulls are doing. They got rid of Wallace only to bring in Larry Hughes' terrible deal. I suppose this is good because they get more playing time for their young bigs (Noah and Thomas), but they aren't really going anywhere. For a team that looked like they had everything going for them the last few years, the Bulls have fallen hard.

    Seattle is just shedding salary again. I love what they're doing. They're creating cap space and stockpiling draft picks to build around Green and Durant.

    Other Thoughts

    - I watched the Rockets the other night and was really impressed. A few things really stand out.
        1) T-Mac looks WAY more comfortable with Rick Adelman's offense than he did at the beginning of the year. He's forcing things far less, and he's making
    good decisions to get his teammates open looks. He's still being used in the pick and roll and they can still go to him with the shot clock winding down, but they're running far less isolation plays for him. He's tall enough to pass over most guys, and that makes him really effective setting guys up in this offense.
        2) The Rockets play help defense as well or better than any team in the league. Individually they aren't all exemplary defenders, but they slide in to help and rotate over so well that they don't give up a whole lot of open shots.
        3) I panned the Carl Landry pick, and I'm eating my words right now. Landry is a really good player. He's really strong, has great hands and finishes strongly at the rim almost every time. He can also shoot a decent mid-range jumper and he's a very solid post defender. He moves really well in the flow of their offense to get a lot of open shots.
        4) Not so much about Houston, but this video of a guy proposing at halftime of a Rockets game is just painful. Can you imagine a more awkward situation? The NBA, it's where amazing happens.

    - I'm not going to jump to any conclusions, but just one thing to point out about Shaq's term in Phoenix so far. The Suns have a negative rebounding differential on the year, but they've outrebounded their last two opponents by 18 and 13. Remember that reducing second chance opportunities is a facet of defense too, and if Shaq can help Phoenix do that then he might have the kind of defensive impact that the Suns want.

    - Does anybody use the behind-the-back dribble as well as Manu Ginobili? Ginobili has taken a huge leap forward this season. He was good last year, but he's been awesome this year, carrying the Spurs on many occasions. He's as versatile a scorer as you're going to find, he shoots threes, midrange jumpers, finishes at the rim and gets to the line.

    - One of the winners at the trade deadline might be the Celtics. Sam Cassell didn't get traded, which means he's probably going to get bought out. A bought out Cassell means a veteran backup point guard in Boston, and that's good news for the Celts.
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    Out of the Phone Booth and Into the Spotlight

    Tuesday, February 19, 2008, 05:10 PM EST [General]



    I've been trying for the last few months to get the nickname "the Hammer" stuck on Dwight Howard, but that's over now. Make no mistake, Dwight Howard is Superman.

    We've just gotten the first iconic moment in a career that promises to be full of them. On a night when he actually had two better dunks, the Superman Dunk will be remembered for the way Howard galvanized the crowd and put on display just how freakish an athlete he is. Whatever you think about the dunk/non-dunk (yes, I know he didn't really dunk it), it was a stunning display of athleticism, and it had the rest of the All-Stars going nuts.

    In case you missed it guys, the dunk contest is back. The only contests that immediately come to mind as being as good as this one are the original ABA Dr. J vs David "Skywalker" Thompson, MJ vs. Dominique and Vince Carter completely blowing everyone away in 2000.

    Jamario Moon and Rudy Gay actually had some really quality dunks, but nobody noticed because Green and Howard set the bar so high. Rudy's first dunk  was basically the same as the 2nd dunk that Jordan threw down in that '88 contest, only Rudy finished with just his left hand, and his second dunk was similar to Green's dunk from last year, only with a higher degree of difficulty. Moon's left-handed free throw line dunk was extremely impressive, only he sabotaged himself by setting the tape up. Just think what he might have been able to do if he'd practiced that dunk.

    Green's cupcake dunk was mind-blowing and incredibly entertaining, but suffered the same problem that Howard's Sticker Dunk did last year, the judges just couldn't see it properly. Great dunk and great showmanship though, that's one that people will remember for a while. The barefoot dunk was great, but he would've been better off combining that with the lob over the backboard. He suffered from doing two similar dunks back-to-back.

    However, the night belonged to Howard, who did things that big men  just aren't supposed to be able to do. For his first dunk, he basically took what Andre Iguadola did, then added an insane degree of difficulty by tossing the ball himself and then finishing with a left-handed windmill. Um...wow. The Superman Dunk was so ridiculous that I can't get over it. To see a guy that big jump that high and then just throw the ball down into the basket...just awesome. He had everybody in the building on their feet in disbelief. His third dunk, to me, was the most impressive. To be able to catch a ball off the bounce with your left hand, tap it off the backboard, then catch it with your right hand and stuff it through is just an awesome display of athleticism and coordination. For a 7-foot center to be able to do that? Unreal. We throw the term "freak" around a lot in sports when describing athleticism, but Dwight Howard truly is a freak. He's like something from another planet...you might even say he's like "The Man of Tomorrow".


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    My Western Conference All-Star Team (and other assorted NBA thoughts)

    Friday, February 15, 2008, 11:44 AM EST [General]

    I thought I was going to have time to write an in-depth article about my picks for the Western Conference All-Star Team like I did for the East (btw, Shawn Marion retroactively kicks Jefferson off the team), but I just ran out of time this week. You guys will have to settle for a quick list with a bit of explanation, and some other vatious NBA musings.

    Starters

    G - Chris Paul
    G - Kobe Bryant
    F - Dirk Nowitzki
    F - Tim Duncan
    C - Yao Ming

    Three of these (Bryant, Yao, Duncan) can't be argued, they're clearly the best at their position. Much as I love Nash, Paul has had the better season so far. He looks like a young Isiah Thomas, and he's been the best point guard in the league so far this season. Dirk wins out over Boozer by a narrower margin. I love Boozer's toughness and rebounding, but Dirk's just too good. Even with his early season shooting-slump, he's got great numbers.

    Bench

    G - Steve Nash
    G - Allen Iverson
    F - Carlos Boozer
    F - Amare Stoudemire
    C - Marcus Camby
    WC - Manu Ginobili
    WC - Brandon Roy

    Nash, Boozer and Stoudemire were gimmes. Nash and Boozer have been fantastic, and not enough people are talking about how impressive STAT has been in only his second season back from major knee surgery. Iverson had to be here, he's been fantastic for the Nuggets while Melo is having a bit of a down year. There were questions as to how well Iverson would adapt to not being the main option and having a bit more of a distributor role, and the answer is that he has thrived. This is the most efficient season of his career. Camby is proving last year's DPOY wasn't a fluke, as he has surprisingly stayed healthy and almost single-handedly made Denver a good defensive team. Despite some truly terrible defensive teammates, Camby's presence as a shotblocker and rebounder has kept the Nuggets among the league's top five defensive teams. He's also a great passer for a big guy. The last two spots were the tough ones. I had to reward Manu for the way he has carried the Spurs at times this year. He'll do anything you ask him, he's humble enough to come off the bench, and he's one of the most versatile offensive threats in the game. The last spot came down to Roy vs. Baron Davis to me. I've watched both play this year, and while Davis is the more spectacular and eye-catching of the two, but Roy is equally impressive in the way he is always under control. Both are fantastic clutch players, and when you account for pace (GS is the league's 2nd fastest team, Portland the 2nd slowest), their production is very similar. For me, it came down to the fact that Roy has less talent around him (experienced talent at least) and has been the unquestioned leader of a team that has had far more success than anyone thought they could. That gives him the edge.

    Apologies to the many players who have the misfortune of playing in the West, and didn't get chosen. Among these are: Melo, David West, Deron Williams, Al Jefferson, Baron Davis, Tyson Chandler, Josh Howard and Tony Parker, all of whom would've made the East squad.

    Other Stuff

    - Where does Bill Walton get off calling out Shaquille O'Neal for being arrogant? Not only was Walton injured his entire career but, according to his NBA.com bio, "
    Walton's combative relationship with the press further sullied his image. He spoke only to reporters he knew would present him favorably... And he was cocky, even to the Trail Blazers' coaching staff. According to The Sporting News, during one game Coach Ramsay said to Walton as he was coming off the court, 'Great job.' Walton shot back, 'Great job yourself.'" This guy is calling someone out for arrogance? Bill, you sat out AN ENTIRE SEASON because you were mad at management and wanted a trade! I'm not saying that some of what he said about Shaq isn't true, but he certainly isn't the guy to be saying it.

    - Is anyone else as excited about the dunk contest as I am? People keep asking for guys like Kobe and LeBron to participate, but honestly I don't care. Instead, we've got 4 guys who actually care and are really getting into this competition. Dwight Howard has been waiting for this since he got cheated at last year's contest. Rudy Gay has asked YouTubers to submit their own dunks, one of which he will pick to do in the contest. Jamario Moon has his own YouTube video, complete with the super-secret finale dunk. Green hasn't been heard from much, but you know he's going to bring it. How can you not be excited about this? The only negative? For some reason that defies logic, the league has again rejected Howard's petition to raise the rim to 12 feet for some of his dunks. What are they trying to do, protect the integrity of the dunk contest? Seriously, this is about entertaining the fans, let Howard show what he can do.

    - People like to compare Golden State and Phoenix because of the pace they play at, but watching their game Wednesday, it was clear that they are very different teams. Golden State's offense is based on spreading the floor with slashers and shooters and finding mismatches. Phoenix's offense is based much more on cutting and screening to get guys open. The Suns also depend more heavily on one guy (Nash) than perhaps any offense in the league. What's funny to me is that (this is for all you college basketball fans) people keep comparing Duke's offense this year to Phoenix, when it is actually almost a carbon copy of Nellieball.

    - The Kidd to Dallas trade just hit another snag when Jerry Stackhouse opened up his big mouth.

    - Don't look now, but that Boston bench that nobody believed in is producing big-time with KG and Perkins out. We could've seen this coming from Glen Davis, but Leon Powe? Where did he come from? If they do end up adding Sam Cassell, the bench becomes a huge strength for this team.

    That's it for me, I'm out for the weekend. Later all, and enjoy the All-Star festivities.

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    My All-Star Teams, Eastern Conference

    Saturday, February 9, 2008, 11:05 PM EST [General]

    Well, I wanted to make this post a while ago, but I've been fighting sickness for the last two weeks, so it's slightly belated. Anyway, I'm gonna give you my All-Star Teams, and explain to you why some of the guys you might expect to be there aren't.

    First of all, note that this is not a lifetime achievement award. I do not care what you did last year, nor do I care what you might be expected to do for the rest of the year. Performance is what matters.

    Second, while I do consider your team's record, it's not a huge factor to me. I'm not going to penalize you for having crappy teammates.

    Finally, I'm going to list some relevant statistics for each player. These are not going to be PPG or RPG statistics, cause frankly those are usually poor measures of performance and you can find them anywhere. Because I'm going to be listing some statistics that some of you might not recognize, I'll give you a quick synopsis of some of them.

    eFG (effective field goal percentage) - This is simply field goal percentage, except it gives extra credit for three-pointers.

    ORtg (Offensive Rating) - A measure of how efficient an offensive player is. It's a ridiculously complicated formula, but basically it estimates how many points a player creates per every 100 possessions they use.

    USG% (Usage %)- The estimated percentage of the team's possessions that a player uses  while they're on the floor. As a general rule, as USG% goes up, ORtg goes down (harder to be efficient the more you're asked to do). Point Guards often have lower USG% (around 20%), whereas high-volume scorers (DWade, LeBron, Kobe, etc.) usually have a USG% of 30% or more.

    AST% - An estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals that you assist on while you're on the floor.

    TO% - estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions. Anything below 10 is outstanding, over 20% is usually pretty bad.

    REB% - An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds that a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

    (most statistics courtesy of basketballreference.com)

    That said, on to the teams.

    xphoenix87's Eastern Conference All-Stars

    Starting Lineup

    Guard-
    Chauncey Billups
    (53.4% eFG, 90.4% FT, 22.5 USG%, 128 ORtg, 34.6 AST%, 12.7 TO%)
    One of the steadiest players in the league, and one of the most ruthlessly efficient offensive players out there. He's a nightmare to match up against for most teams because he's so good at backing down opposing point guards and abusing them with short turnaround jumpers or headfaking them into fouling him. Billups was an easy pick.

    Guard-Jose Calderon (58.7% eFG, 91.7% FT, 130 ORtg, 44.8 AST%, 13.8 TO%, 5.58 A/T)
    I know, he didn't even make the All-Star team, I must be out of my mind to have him as a starter, right? Well, lets look at him versus the actual All-Star starters, Jason Kidd and Dwayne Wade. There's been a lot of hype about Kidd and his near-triple double pace this season, but how abo
    ut the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.

    Forward-LeBron (33.6 USG%, 116 ORtg, 51.3% eFG, 37.8 AST%, 11 TO%, 11.8 REB%)
    Any argument that LeBron should be the starter here? Didn't think so, moving on.

    Forward-KG (24.2 USG%, 120 ORtg, 55.1% eFG, 17.2 REB%, 20.5 AST%)
    More than any statistic, the impact of Garnett is most pronounced in these numbers.

    106.9
    24

    98
    38

    The first two numbers are Boston's defensive rating and win total from last year. The second two are those same numbers from this year. Defensive impact has been notoriously tricky to quantify, but the effect of Garnett on Boston has been palpable.

    Center-Dwight Howard (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 21.6 REB%, 60.2% eFG)
    Again, anyone want to argue this? Howard is easily the most dominant center in the conference, if not the entire league.

    Bench

    Guard-Dwyane Wade (33 USG%, 103 ORtg, 35.8 AST%, 9 FTA/36, 75.6% FT, 46.8% eFG)
    Is he having a down year? Yeah, sure, but he's still Dwyane Wade. He still gets to the line as well as anyone in the lea
    gue, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.

    Guard-Rip Hamilton (24.7 USG%, 114 ORtg, 53.1% eFG, 23 AST%, 10.4 TO%, 81.5% FT)
    Honestly, I searched really hard to find someone who deserved this spot, maybe someone that everyone else had missed. No dice. As I mentioned above, the guards in the East are so bad that I'm really kind of reaching here (as opposed to the West, which is overflowing with candidates). In the end, nobody I looked at was having a better year than Hamilton. A lot of people like Ray Allen here because of how well Boston has played, but I'm not buying that, and Rip is having a better year. Hamilton is an extremely efficient scorer, and might be the league's best at using off the ball screens (It's between he and Kevin Martin IMO). In addition, he's also a very solid defensive player (as with most Pistons players).

    Forward-Caron Butler (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 50.8% eFG, 91.3% FT, 20.5 AST%)
    Butler supposedly made "The Jump" last year when he made it into his first All-Star game. Well, if he was jumping last year, he's flying this year. His turnovers are down, his assists are way up, his shooting percentages are way up, and he's carrying the Wizards in Gilbert Arenas' absence. His mid-range game has always been among the best in the league, but this year he has really increased his range, shooting 36.5% from long-range.

    Forward-Paul Pierce (25.7 USG%, 110 ORtg, 49.6% eFG, 22.8 AST%, 8.8 REB%)
    I was trying to decide between Pierce and Richard Jefferson here, and really the difference between the two is minimal. Their stat profiles are so similar that it's almost impossible to chose between them. Jefferson is putting up better pure scoring numbers, but Pierce is the better distributor and rebounder. In the end, it comes down to Pierce being the superior defensive player and more proven star.

    Center-Chris Bosh (28.6 USG%, 117 ORtg, 14.9 REB%, 10.2 TO%, 48.9% eFG, 85.6% FT)
    Even if Bosh didn't actually deserve this, he's really the only choice. At any rate, Bosh is having the best season of his career. He's often the forgotten 4th
    member of that LeBron, Wade, Melo draft class, but he has absolutely kept himself at that level. He hasn't yet become a dominant defensive force, but he's definitely improving as a disruptive force who can defend without fouling. Offensively, he rivals Garnett and Duncan as the best face-up post men in the league. He's got a great jab step, and he's so quick and so long that he's almost impossible to guard without help. That quickness means he gets to the line a TON, and his FT% has shot up to 85% this season. He's also got great hands, makes quick decisions, and picks his spots well, leading to very low turnover numbers for a guy his size who has such a high usage rate.

    Wild Card #1-Richard Jefferson (27.5 ORtg, 111 ORtg, 48.5% eFG, 80.4% FT)
    If I struggled with Jefferson vs. Pierce above, it didn't take a lot of thought to put him here. A bit overlooked in the Nets' collapse, Jefferson is completing his transformation from a role player who finished Jason Kidd alley-oops into the team's star-quality first option. It isn't the most efficient year of Jefferson's career, but he's taking on a much bigger role in the offense, and he's thriving.

    Wild Card #2-Josh Smith (26.5 USG%, 100 ORtg, 13 REB%, 45.3% eFG, 20 AST%, 3.4 BPG, 2 SPG)
    There were three people I considered here: Smith, Antwan Jamison, and Tayshaun Prince. Jamison is having a solid year, and he's rebounding than he ever has in his career. He doesn't make many mistakes (4th lowest TO% in the league), but the fact that he shoots 30% from the field really hurts him. He also doesn't play defense, and he just isn't a good enough offensive player to make up for that and get on the team for me. Prince is a fantastic player who often gets overlooked in Detroit, but he's a matchup nightmare with his length and versatility, and he's one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. However, if I'm going to go with a defensive force, it's got to be Smith. He might not have much polish as an offensive player yet, but Smith is the rare player who can be a dominating defensive force against multiple positions. Like Andrei Kirilenko, he can match up with wing defenders, but he's also a force defending the rim and drifting into passing lanes. The Hawks are 9th in the league in defense, and the biggest reason is Smith's game-altering presence.

    Some guys of note on the outside looking in

    Kidd - People get wrapped up in the whole triple-double thing, but the fact is that Kidd has really fallen off as an offensive player. He can't finish around the rim at all anymore, and he's turning the ball over at a prodigious rate. People need to start getting used to the idea that the 34-year old Kidd may not be an elite point guard any more.

    Jamison - I went over this above. Very good offensive player, very bad defensive player.

    Michael Redd - What I said about Jamison, only more pronounced. To say that he plays matador defense is an understatement.

    Hedo Turkoglu - Hedo is a fantastic story this year as he has really improved his play and become a key part of Orlando's success. He's had some truly great moments at the ends of games too. However, I think he's much more a top-tier role player than he is an all-star. He isn't a good defender, and his offensive numbers are good, but not great.

    Joe Johnson - He's only noteworthy because he's on the actual all-star team. In reality he's having his worst season as a Hawk, and doesn't deserve to be on the team.

    Western Conference team coming soon
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