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    NBA Season Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

    Wednesday, November 14, 2007, 05:43 PM EST [General]

    Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

    Philadelphia 76ers

    Coach: Maurice Cheeks
    2006-2007 Record: 35-47
    06-07 Expected Record: 33-49
    Offensive Rating:
    103.7 (26th in NBA, league average 106.5)
    Defensive Rating: 106.8 (16th in NBA, league average 106.5)
    eFG%: 48% (26th in NBA)
    Possessions per 48: 90.7 (22nd in NBA)

    Roster
    (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)


    Andre Iguadola surprised me last year, I didn't think he was as good as he showed he was. At this point, the only things keeping him from becoming a star are his jumpshot and his turnovers. He's a great finisher, gets to the free throw line, rebounds well, has great court vision for a G/F, and he's a very good defender. He's a great piece for them to build around, and he may well be an All-Star this year.

    I like Andre Miller. He's a terrible long-range shooter, but he's not a bad midrange guy, and he's a very good passer and rebounder for his position. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him traded sometime this year. The Sixers aren't going anywhere, and there are plenty of teams out there looking for a veteran true point guard.

    Only in the NBA can a guy with one real basketball skill be getting paid $5 mil a year over the next 4 years. For his career, 56% of the shots Kyle Korver has taken have been 3s. He doesn't play defense, he doesn't rebound, he doesn't pass well, he doesn't get to the free throw line, and he still plays 30 minutes a game. Fortunately for Korver, he's 6'7 and a dead-eye shot, so he'll always be in demand.

    What is it with the Sixers and guys who have only one discernable skill. Reggie Evans is a FANTASTIC rebounder, especially for a guy who is 6'8. However, he's a turnover machine, and he doesn't really do anything other than rebound. So, of course, he's also making $4.5 mil a year over the next 4 years. If only they could combine Korver and Evans into some sort of super-rebounding/super-shooting Frankenstein's monster.

    Louis Williams has been carving up the summer league for the last two years, but we've yet to see him do much in the league yet. This year he'll probably get a chance to win the backup point guard job and prove that he can be the point guard of the future for the Sixers. He's not much of a shooter at this point, but he's blindingly quick and a pretty good finisher. Look for a semi-breakout year from him this year.

    Thaddeus Young is an awesome talent to get as late as the 12th pick. In fact, before the season last year he was regarded by many scouting services as a better prospect than Kevin Durant. While that's obviously not true, Young is a huge talent who should make a big impact a few years down the line. He's still really raw, and his ballhandling and strength will be the two things he really needs to work on, but Young is a solid shooter, a strong finisher, and already has good post moves if he gets a smaller guy on him.

    X-Factor: Samuel Dalembert - If the Sixers want to make any noise over the next few years, Dalembert needs to start earning that outrageous contract he got from them. If you're making that kind of money, you can't just be a good rebounder and shotblocker. The Dalembeast either needs to add some offensive component to his game other than turning the ball over an inordinate amount of times, or he needs to become an elite-level shotblocker and rebounder. If he doesn't improve, he might combine with Evans to give the Sixers the most turnover prone and offensively inept frontcourt in the league.

    Overview

    It was a very strange year in Philadelphia last year. After half a season of terrible play and trade rumors, they finally parted with the face of the franchise, trading Allen Iverson for Andre Miller and some first round picks. Unpredictably, the Sixers then played much better, actually having a winning record with Miller on the floor. Of course, that probably wasn't a good thing, since all those wins probably cost Philly 4-5 spots in the draft. Really, looking at the roster, it's absolutely amazing that this team could be above .500 for half a season.

    Prediction

    This team has little hope of continuing the success that they ended last season with. They're turnover prone, they have no post scoring presence at all, and they have no good shooters outside of Korver. I'd expect to see Miller traded sometime this season if they can find a taker (Atlanta would be a good choice). The nucleus of Young, Carney, Iggy, Williams, and Dalembert has the potential to be good since they're all such great athletes, but all of those guys have a long way to go before this team will be a contender.

    14th in the East - If You're Bad in the East, You're Really Bad

    0 (0 Ratings)

    NBA Season Preview: Orlando Magic

    Monday, November 12, 2007, 08:54 PM EST [General]

    Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

    Orlando Magic

    Coach: Stan Van Gundy
    2006-2007 Record: 40-42
    06-07 Expected Record: 43-39
    Offensive Rating:
    104.6 (24th in NBA, league average 106.5)
    Defensive Rating: 104.4 (7th in NBA, league average 106.5)
    eFG%: 50% (13th in NBA)
    Possessions per 48: 89.9 (26th in NBA)

    Roster
    (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

     

    Dwight Howard is a monster. I watched him on the US team over the summer and was struck by how much he stood out among some of the world's best players. He's just completely physically overpowering, almost like a young Shaq. Scary thought, Howard is only 21 and would be a senior in college this year without early entry. He's really turnover prone and doesn't shoot well from the line, and he's still a dominant player. The turnovers are a common problem with young players, and he showed some improvement from the charity stripe in the preseason. He's still very raw on the offensive end, but he's a solid offensive player because of his incredible physical gifts. He's already an elite rebounder and very good shotblocker, once he polishes up his offensive game, watch out.

    The Magic paid Rashard Lewis WAY too much, but he's still a very good player. He's an extremely efficient scorer who can shoots great percentages and doesn't turn the ball over much. If you could quibble with any part of Lewis's offensive game it's that he doesn't get to the free throw line much, though he's been getting better at that the last few years as he's developing more of a post-up game. Defensively, he's really limited despite his length and athletic gifts. He's going to have to play mostly power forward this year with the Injury to Tony Battie, and he doesn't do well with banging in the post. I wouldn't be surprised to see Orlando play a good deal of zone this year where Lewis can be a decent asset due to his length.

    Hedo Turkoglu is, in many ways, a very similar player to Lewis. He's a very good perimeter shooter, and a poor defender despite his size. He was set to lose a lot of minutes with the acquisition of Lewis, but the injury to Battie gives him an opportunity to play a big role and prove his value to the team. He's actually a very good ballhandler and distributor for his size, posting a great assist ratio for a non-PG. He's another guy who would benefit greatly from playing in a zone due to his length.

    I would expect Ariza to take over most of Keith Bogans' minutes this year. He's a great athlete who rebounds really well for a SF, and is among the best finishers in the league (68.5% of his FG attempts were right at the rim, and he made 64.2% of those shots). He's a pretty terrible shooter, but he's the one player on the Magic who is a really dynamic slasher on the wings. He's also developing into a really good defensive player with his quickness, averaging 2 steals per 40 minutes so far in his career.

    I was really surprised when I watched J.J. Redick playing in the preseason. Now, I know tha preseason rarely means anything, but I watched one game where he missed 4 or 5 wide open shots. For most players, that's not a big deal, but Redick NEVER missed wide-open shots in college, it's what made him such a great player. He can't play defense at all (guys were driving by him like he wasn't even there), and he's not a great ballhandler, so he can't just be a good shooter, he has to be a great shooter. It could be nothing, and he could end up shooting fine this season, but it was pretty shocking to watch J.J. front rim jumper after jumper.

    X-Factor: Jameer Nelson - Nelson really came back to earth last year after having a sensational second year. His shooting percentages really plummeted, most noticeably finishing around the rim, where his percentage dropped 80 points. Nelson is such a young player that it's tough to determine which year's result to trust. I'm inclined to think that Nelson will return more to the form he showed 2 years ago. Despite his lack of height, Nelson was been a good finisher and rebounder throughout his playing career because he's so strong, and I just can't see him shooting so poorly around the rim again. Also, with the improvement of Howard and all the shooters around him, as well as Nelson's own improvement, we can probably expect his assist totals to go up by a substantial amount. If he ends up being a MIP candidate as some are predicting for this season, the Magic will be in real good shape.

    Overview

    Last year was a really good year for the Magic by most accounts. Despite some regression from their young point guard, they leapt into the playoffs behind a full year from Grant Hill and a huge jump from Dwight Howard. They won with defense, relying on the twin shotblocking machines of Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic. Offensively, Orlando actually did a decent job in most categories, shooting above average from the field, rebounding real well on the offensive end, and getting to the free throw line a lot. Their one problem was turnovers, and it absolutely killed their offensive efficiency. With turnover machines Milicic and Howard getting the ball a lot in the post, the team turned the ball over more often than any other team in the league. In the offseason, the Magic decided to whip out their checkbooks in a big way, signing Rashard Lewis to a huge max deal, but losing Hill and Milicic at the same time.

    Prediction

    This year projects to be a very different look from last year with their personnel change. Replacing Milicic with Lewis and losing Battie for the year will hurt them defensively, but with defensive-minded Stan Van Gundy as coach and the presence of Howard underneath, they still figure to be a good defensive team. Offensively, Lewis is going to offer a big upgrade, but most of their offensive development is going to be determined by the improvement of their young guys (Howard, Nelson, and Ariza) and their ability to cut down on turnovers. Realistically, I think we can expect a 45-46 win season from the Magic, but they're not yet really a threat to win the Eastern Conference. I'd give them one more year to grow and mesh together before expecting real big things out of them.

    5th in the East - Playoffs or Bust


     

    0 (0 Ratings)

    NBA Season Preview: New York Knicks

    Sunday, November 11, 2007, 08:25 PM EST [General]

    Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

    New York Knicks

    Coach: Isiah Thomas
    2006-2007 Record: 33-49
    06-07 Expected Record: 33-49
    Offensive Rating:
    105.5 (17th in NBA, league average 106.5)
    Defensive Rating: 108.9 (24th in NBA, league average 106.5)
    eFG%: 49.4% (16th in NBA)
    Possessions per 48: 90.8 (20th in NBA)

    Roster
    (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

    Marbury is a scoring point, always has been, always will be. There have been attempts over the years to turn him into a pass-first guy, but it doesn't work. He's actually a pretty efficient scorer, he's just more of 2 guard than a distributing point. His overall numbers last year were down from his career numbers, but he actually had a very efficient year as far as scoring the ball. He got to the free throw line more often and shot the best 3PT percentage of his career. The main problem with Marbury is that he just doesn't fit with this team. Even at his best, he's not a great outside shooter, and he isn't the distributor that this team needs. He'd work much better on a team like Miami or Cleveland where someone else (Lebron or Wade) can be the primary playmaker.

    You know who's been really overrated the last few years? Jamal Crawford, that's who. He shoots terrible percentages because he's not a great shooter, but keeps settling for long range shots. Last year he shot more three-pointers than layups, and over 20% of his shots were long two-pointers. If you shoot 32% from behind the line, you can't hoist up shots like that. He's a good free throw shooter and is actually a pretty good distributor for a scoring combo guard, but his reliance on a poor jumpshot really kills him.

    Eddie Curry does one thing well, and that's score around the rim. He's terrible at everything else. Turnovers, rebounding, free throw shooting, defense, every other facet of the game. Lucky for Curry, post scoring as at an absolute premium in the NBA today. That said, this team would be way better off if David Lee took more minutes from Curry. Curry just has way too many weaknesses in his game.

    I really didn't like the Zach Randolph move, even though they gave up almost nothing to get him. Randolph isn't a good defender, he isn't great at getting to the line (though he does shoot a good percentage from the stripe), and he doesn't shoot a very good percentage for a post player. He's not a good compliment to Eddy Curry as they're similar offensive players, both have problems with their weight, and both are really bad defenders. Randolph is a very good rebounder though, which might be the biggest thing he brings to the table for them. Still, his contract is huge over the next 4 years, and he's just not worth that, especially in New York.

    I, like everyone else, bashed the Balkman pick at the time, but it's turned out pretty well for the Knicks. It still wasn't a great pick because they could've gotten him much later in the draft, but he's a solid talent. He's important because he's really the only good defender on the team. Energy guys like Balkman coming off the bench are really important, especially for a team like the Knicks which has so many score-first players.

    There's not a team in the league that wouldn't love to have David Lee coming off the bench. He's a rebounding machine, and almost single-handedly made the Knicks a decent rebounding team (cause it sure as heck wasn't Eddie Curry). He's a great player because he knows his limits offensively, so he shoots a great percentage, and he's probably the best instinctive rebounder in the league.

    X-Factor: Quentin Richardson - Q has a really unique skillset, and it's one that fits really well for this Knicks team. He's a really good 3PT shooter and a solid rebounder for his position, both things New York definitely needs. The problem with Richardson is that he's injury-prone, having missed large chunks of 4 of the last 5 seasons.He's battled with his weight at times in his career, and it has caused him a lot of minor injuries and back problems. The Knicks really need him to be healthy because he can be effective without the ball in his hands and because he works hard on defense, which you can't say for most of their guys. He's also probably the best shooter on the team.

    Overview

    The Knicks are a prime case subject in the importance of chemistry. They had loads of talent last year, but so many players on their team have similar skillsets that they just don't work well together. On top of that, they were a terrible defensive team and didn't rebound well when David Lee wasn't on the floor. Offensively, their lack of a true point guard was readily apparent in the fact that they weren't a good shooting team and the only team that turned the ball over more often than New York was Orlando. So, with so many bad contracts and similar players who don't play defense on the roster,what did Isiah decide to? Well, he brought in the massive contract of Zach Randolph, who is a very similar player to Eddy Curry except that he can rebound.

    Prediction

    I just don't see a whole lot of difference between this year's Knicks team and last year's team. Sure, they added Randolph, but does he really bring them anything they didn't have before? The essential problem is that their guards aren't the kind of shooters or distributors who you would want for a team based around post players like Curry and Randolph who require a lot of touches. Crawford and Marbury both require the ball in their hands for large portions of the clock in order to be effective, but both their posts also need the ball, and neither of them are good passers. The Knicks will have dual black holes in the middle, cause when the ball goes in to Curry or Z-Bo, it doesn't come back out very often. On the defensive end, they're just as bad as they were last year. They have no shotblockers, they don't even have any servicable post defenders. Balkman is a good defender, but he's really the only one on the team. Richardson is strong and he works hard, but he's just too slow to guard the quicker guys he's often matched up against. In an improved Eastern conference, this team just isn't built right to be a playoff team.

    14th in the East - The Enigmas


    0 (0 Ratings)

    NBA Season Preview: New Jersey Nets

    Thursday, November 8, 2007, 12:00 AM EST [General]

    Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

    New Jersey Nets

    Coach: Lawrence Frank
    2006-2007 Record: 41-41
    06-07 Expected Record: 39-43
    Offensive Rating:
    106.1 (16th in NBA, league average 106.5)
    Defensive Rating: 106.2 (13th in NBA, league average 106.5)
    eFG%: 50.4% (7th in NBA)
    Possessions per 48: 91.4 (16th in NBA)

    Roster
    (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

     

    Jason Kidd is a great player and a future Hall of Famer. He's one of the all-time great passers and one of the best rebounding point guards ever. Also, contrary to popular perception, he isn't that bad a shooter. He actually has shot pretty well from outside and mid-range over the last few years, but his problem was finishing close to the rim, where he shot pretty poorly. On the defensive end, Kidd is a bit overrated since he really struggles with quicker players at this point. He's a smart defender and he still makes an impact with his rebounding, but he's not a first-team All-Defensive teamer anymore. He remains one of the best leaders in the game, and he and Nash are the only guys who REALLY make all their teammates substantially better. The Nets have to be worried about his age and injuries (he was having some back problems this preseason), since it's all over if he goes down.

    I'm really torn on Vince Carter. He's a guy who really looks good on paper by most every statistical measure, but as soon as you put your trust in him he'll rip your heart out. Just ask a Raptors fan what they think about Carter and you'll get an earful about Carter's complete and total lack of heart. At his best, Vince is a guy who can score from almost anywhere on the court, and Kidd makes him even better. However, he far too often settles for jumpshots or gets frustrated and can shoot his team out of games.

    The Nets better pray that Richard Jefferson stays healthy. When he's been healthy and able to play all season, he's been a monster. He's a great transition player and really benefits from playing with Kidd. He's not much of a mid-range player, usually opting to spot up from distance or go all the way to the rim and finish. He's so dependent on his athleticism though that when he suffers physical problems, he completely breaks down. He's also a pretty good rebounder and a strong defender when healthy. Of course all this is contingent on Jefferson staying healthy, which he's had some trouble with the last few years.

    Bostjan Nachbar really had a career year last year after getting some minutes and benefiting from the Jason Kidd effect. He really only has one skill, but his pretty darn good at shooting the rock. At 6'9, he can play both forward spots, and he can shoot over most other SFs. Of course, that's about the only thing that Nachbar does. He doesn't play defense, he's not a great rebounder, he doesn't drive the ball, but he's a heck of a spot-up shooter.

    Jamaal Magloire doesn't do much on the offensive end, and he turns the ball over a ton, but he's a great rebounder. Don't mistake him for an offensive post presence, because he's not, but he can bring some of the rebounding toughness that this team lacks.

    Sean Williams could make a big impact for this team, but I wouldn't be counting on it too much. He missed half of the college basketball season and hasn't exactly built a reputation of being a hard worker. Williams is a really athletic player and an amazing shotblocker, but his offensive game is extremely limited and he isn't that strong.

    X-Factor: Nenad Krstic - I think people might be expecting a bit too much from Krstic this year. He's a fairly skilled offensive player, but even before his "breakout" year last year was cut short, he was putting up slightly above-average offensive production. He's not a very good rebounder and he's not a shotblocker, which are two things the Nets really need in the frontcourt. If he can continue to improve his interior scoring and improve a bit as a rebounder and defensive presence, then he can make them really good. Eventually, they'd love to play him a lot with Sean Williams so that the two can cover one another's weaknesses, but Krstic is going to have to become a better rebounder at the very least in order to raise his game to another level.

    Overview

    The Nets had a mediocre season last year and were pretty lucky to make the playoffs as they actually had a negative point differential. They did suffer injuries to two key players in Jefferson and Krstic, However, with Jefferson, Carter and Kidd on the roster, you almost have to expect injuries to be a problem. They ended up being a mediocre offensive team and mediocre defensive team. The bench was pretty awful, and this year they'll be relying on some of their younger guys (Boone and the Williamses) to be bigger contributors. To some extent, you can blame last year on injuries, but on the other hand you have to realize that this is a team where the stars are getting older and they just aren't a championship contender anymore.

    Prediction

    If the core of the team stays healthy, the Nets could be really solid, maybe even competing for the East title, but their days of contending are over. They were much worse defensively last year than they've been in years, and they're not exactly an offensive juggernaut. Even if they stay injury-free and Kidd and Carter don't decline, these guys would never be able to take down a team like San Antonio or Houston in a 7 game series. The more likely situation is that they struggle with injuries along the way and have a slightly above-average season.

    7th in the East - Not Very Good, But Hey, It's The East!

     

    0 (0 Ratings)

    NBA Season Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

    Tuesday, November 6, 2007, 11:58 PM EST [General]

    Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

    Milwaukee Bucks

    Coach: Larry Krystkowiak
    2006-2007 Record: 28-54
    06-07 Expected Record: 29.5-52.5
    Offensive Rating:
    106.7 (13th in NBA, league average 106.5)
    Defensive Rating: 112.0 (29th in NBA, league average 106.5)
    eFG%: 50.4% (8th in NBA)
    Possessions per 48: 92.3 (11th in NBA)

    Roster
    (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

     

    I really like Michael Redd. He's an incredibly hard worker who keeps improving himself every year. He completely reinvented himself as a player when he came into the league. Did you realize that he shot 32% from behind the arc and 65% from the line in college? Now he's one of the league's best shooters. The common misconception about Redd is that he's only a shooter, where the reality is that over the last 3 years only about 25% of his shots have been threes and he gets to the line a lot. He's a very versatile and efficient scorer who doesn't make mistakes (#1 in career TO ratio among active players). He's really an elite player, and one of the underrated stars in the league.

    I think I overrated Mo Williams a bit when evaluating him over the summer. He's a good scorer who can get his points from all over the court, whether it's getting to the rim or shooting the rock. However, he's not a great distributor, which is a problem with so many scorers around him on this team. His other weakness on the offensive end is that he doesn't get to the line much, and that hurts his efficiency as an offensive player.

    You know who isn't very good? Desmond Mason, that's who. For a guy who takes a ton of point-blank shots, he has a very poor shooting percentage. He also turns the ball over a lot, doesn't rebound real well, and is a poor free throw shooter. He's a good finisher on the break, but not much beyond that. I'd expect that once he proves he can come back strong from his surgery, Bobby Simmons will take most of the SF minutes.

    I can't say I'm particularly excited about the two-headed monster of Yi and Villanueva at PF. Both are offensively-minded forwards who don't play much defense. Both are matchup problems for opposing bigs, Villanueva because he can hit the long ball and Yi because he can put the ball on the floor and go by you. Defensively, Villanueva is a decent rebounder, but to call him disinterested would be an understatement. Yi has shotblocking potential, but he's going to have to get stronger in order to play post defense and grab boards, expect him to pick up a lot of fouls this year.

    Charlie Bell is a really good backup guard. He can play both guard spots and he's a good shooter who takes care of the ball. He's also the best perimeter defender on the team. His attitude will be really important for the Bucks this year as he made it quite clear over the summer that he didn't want to come back to Milwaukee. If he's happy, he's one of the best backup guards in the league.

    X-Factor: Andrew Bogut - It's time for Bogut to start living up to the potential that made him a number one pick. He had a really solid rookie season, but he actually regressed a little last year. The most pronounced difference was on the defensive end, where his blocked shots got cut in half from his rookie year to last year. Offensively, he's an excellent passer and a really skilled scorer around the rim, but he really needs to work on his jump shot. His passing is really best-suited for playing out of the high post, but he's not a very good mid-range shooter. If he improves his jumper and free throw stroke, as well as returning to form as a shotblocker, he could develop into one of the league's best pure centers.

    Overview

    The Bucks got decimated by injuries last year. Redd missed 29 games, Williams missed 14, Bogut 16, Villanueva 43, and Simmons missed the whole season. After it became obvious that they weren't going to be playoff-bound, Milwaukee basically shut it down for the year and tanked for a top pick in the draft (ah, fate is a cruel mistress). The slew of injuries did give Williams the opportunity to step up and establish himself as a solid player. I can't say I was thrilled by their offseason moves. They didn't make Bell feel wanted, but then kept him when he didn't want to stay. They replaced Ruben Patterson by paying Mason twice as much as he was worth. They also drafted Yi, who didn't want to play for them and is a risky pick anyway.

    Prediction

    I think this Bucks team is primed for a step up. They're loaded with offensive talent and should be a top offensive team if they stay relatively healthy. Between Redd, Williams, Bell, Villanueva, and Simmons, they've got tons of perimeter shooting, which makes them really tough to guard, and they've got a go-to guy in the clutch in Redd. The concern will be on the defensive end, where they need Bogut to step up as a defensive playmaker. If they can even be a half-decent defensive team, they'll be a playoff team in the East. You have to be concerned about the attitude of Bell and the way Yi will fit in, but if they stay relatively injury-free and their young players develop, they'll be solid.

    8th in the East - Not Very Good, But Hey, It's The East!

    0 (0 Ratings)