Those of you familiar with Pat Forde's Forde-Yard Dash/Forde Minutes will know the format here. 24 names in various NBA thoughts

I'm a bit bummed about the sports world in general after watching my Wolfpack basketball team underachieve game after game and lose to EC FREAKING U (now 1-57 all-time against the ACC). I also lost in my fantasy football playoffs because I have Adrien Peterson (the good one), Kolby Smith, and Carson Palmer, who combined for a grand total of 6 points. Not that I'm bitter or anything.

There have been a bunch of articles over the last few days on ESPN.com and SI.com about Dwight Howard, highlighting what an amazing season he's had so far. David Thorpe's breakdown of Dwight's game (it's an Insider article, sorry if you can't get to it) says basically what I've been saying for months now, that "The Hammer" looks a whole lot like a young Shaq. I particularly liked this article by Jack McCallum (who is an amazing writer), where he gives us this story:
At one point Suns guard Raja Bell, never one to shy away from contact, asked assistant Alvin Gentry what approach to take when Howard comes steaming down the lane on a screen-and-roll.

"Should I step in and plug?" said Bell.

"I'd just get the hell out of the way in that situation," answered Gentry.

"Just making sure we were on the same page," said Bell.

Howard might be the most impressive physical specimen ever to play the center position, and at the rate he's going now, he has a great chance to end up as one of the all-time greats. (This paragraph brought to you by the committee to initiate Dwight "The Hammer" Howard as the official nickname)

You hate to see something happen like the T.J. Ford injury last night. Ford and Al Horford are both classy players and there was no harm intended, but things happen. It sounds like he's going to be alright, and hopefully will be able to return to the court soon. In the meantime, the Raps have Jose Calderon to man the point, so they should be alright. Before the injury, Ford was having his best game of the season, just slicing through the Atlanta defense at will. I think he's the fastest player in the league with the ball in his hands. Defenders give him a huge cushion, but he still blows right past them. Best wishes, T.J., get back soon.

Speaking of Horford, he's throwing up 9 and 10 in 32 MPG and is a big reason why Atlanta has had success early on this season. He definitely makes Shelden Williams expendable, and the Hawks should be trying to move Williams in order to get a PG (Andre Miller anyone?).

What's the earliest that an MVP race has been decided? Barring a MAJOR slump or an injury, I don't see any way LeBron doesn't take home the hardware this year. After watching Cleveland be far and away the worst team in the league for 5 games without him, his value is really highlighted.

Anyone else look at the Spurs-Warriors box score and do a big-time double take. Seriously, Matt Bonner gets 25 and 17? This Spurs team goes 10-11 deep and you can tell by their minutes distribution that they're all about the postseason. Manu is playing like an MVP, and they're taking care to make sure that Duncan will be healthy and rested come playoff time. They look even better now than they were last year.

Celtics haters despair, cause they're getting quality backup minutes out of Big Baby Davis now (8 and 6 in 20 MPG over the last 4 games). Davis also has the best profile picture on ESPN.com. The much maligned Boston bench (Eddie House, Davis, James Posey, Tony Allen) is producing, and doing so efficiently. The big three still need to play less minutes (especially Ray Allen's 39 MPG on two surgically repaired ankles).

I'd just like to point out that in the Denver/LA game I highlighted in my last post, Marcus Camby dropped the ridiculous 0 point, 20 rebound stat line. Just thought you should realize that.

I think it's funny that people keep calling the Heat "most disappointing" or one of the biggest surprises so far. Did you not see this coming, seriously? Were you expecting Shaq to average 20-10? Were you expecting actual production from Penny Hardaway (who just got cut for, get this, Luke Jackson)? This team isn't a disappointment, they just aren't very good.

Game To Watch Tonight: Utah v. Phoenix - Deron against Nash. Two of the league's most dynamic and highest-scoring teams (so strange to say that about a Jerry Sloan team). Not a lot of defense going on in this one, first one to 130 wins.

It's been a while since my last post. I think I kind of burned myself out with my humongous NBA Season preview. Anyway, I came in and turned on the TV a few minutes ago only to see that it was halftime of the Denver/LA game, and Iverson had dropped 33 in the first half. Needless to say, I feel compelled to watch and keep track of just how high that total is going to go. So I'm going to monitor AI and intersperse some other NBA stuff along the way.

Right now AI has 38 with 7:00 left in the 3rd, and Kobe has 4 fouls, so he's being guarded by Sasha Vujacic. Basically, that means he has free reign to do whatever he wants. He just had a play where he danced around Vujacic for a few seconds before getting himself a wide open fadeaway.

You know Denver is going to score, but one of the reasons I thought they could be a real contender was the defensive presence of Camby and Martin, but they haven't been as good a defensive team as I expected because they inexplicably give up tons of open jumpers. Still, the season is young, and all the pieces are there.

There's nothing that LA can do against AI. Farmar just played great defense against him on two fadeaway J's, but Iverson is just so quick and elevates so quickly that he just drilled them both. He's hitting everything. 3 minutes to go in the 3rd, and he's got 47. I think you can just about pencil him in for 60+ right now, there's no one on the Lake Show that can stop him.

It's amazing that LA is still in this game. Denver just keeps giving them wide-open jumpers and they're knocking down enough of them to stay in it. BTW, J.R. Smith checked into the game, missed a lob, turned the ball over, missed a 3, and committed a dumb reach-in foul. Such a huge talent, but the work ethic and basketball mind just aren't there.

End of the 3rd. AI has 49. The way the Lakers have started keying on him, I think he'll probably get 59 or 61 by the end of the night.

Start of the 4th and Kobe is back in the game. Beautiful lob from Camby to Melo. Is there a more underrated passing center than Camby? He never gets mentioned among the league's best passing centers (probably because he isn't European), but every time I watch him he seems to show great court vision from the high post.

Jordan Farmar just got his clock cleaned by a Kenyon Martin screen. Smith ran him right into it bringing the ball up the court, and it took him a few seconds to even get back into the picture.

8:50 left in the game, and AI is still at 49. Nobody else on the Nuggets can hit a jumper.

4:24 left and AI still scoreless in the quarter. Denver has taken the lead though because the rest of the Nuggets have stepped up their production when Iverson is passing out of the double team.

Looks like we're not going to see anything too spectacular. Anyway, I'm off to make a late-night cookout run. I'll probably edit this and add some final thoughts when I get back.

Well, AI ends up with 51 and I think 5 assists in the 4th after they started really keying on him, but LA gets the win. For playing a lot of the game without Kobe and having AI go off like that, that's a very good win for the Lakers. It's obvious that this is a very good offensive team, and that's a tribute to Phil Jackson. Even when Kobe isn't out there, they move the ball well to get open looks. Offense never was the problem though, the problem is on the defensive end, where they still have a lot of issues. Getting Trevor Ariza was a good step, but they still lack anyone on the inside who really intimidates you, and they have a lot of guys (Walton, Radmonovic, Vujacic, Odom often) who are just terrible defenders.

As for Denver, they've got all the pieces. We knew coming into the season that they were tremendously talented, but it's all about attitude and effort with this team. They're one of the more interesting squads to watch the rest of the way, especially with Nene and Atkins coming back from injury.

Some other thoughts from around the league:

Yi continues to surprise me. I know his team got beat by 30, but 9 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 blocks in 29 minutes is a good night of work. I never would have expected him to be as solid as he's been, not this soon.

After watching a bunch of highlights of the Suns outracing the Raptors tonight, it got me thinking, "Has anyone ever passed as well with their off hand as Steve Nash does?"  Seriously, go outside and try dribbling at full speed with your off hand and then, without touching the ball with your strong hand, throw it one-handed across your body to some target 10-15 feet away. Congratulate yourself if you get within 3 feet of it. Seriously, Nash makes that play 2-3 times a game at least and hits his teammates right in the hands. His ability to make the one-handed pass from either side is one of the main things that makes him so effective, Nobody is quicker at delivering the ball.

Impressive win for the Spurs over Dallas without Duncan. Manu Ginobili is just playing at a transcendent level right now. Much like Parker did during last year's playoff run, Manu has taken his game to another level, and the Spurs look incredibly scary because of it. BTW, you think Greg Popovich knows how to keep his team fresh for when it matters? Duncan is playing a career low in minutes, and the Spurs are one of only 4 who have nobody averaging over 35 MPG (with Detroit, Seattle and Toronto). No sane person should be betting against them come playoff time.

Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.

Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.

I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-Ho, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?

The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.

In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.

Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.

Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.

Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.

It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.

Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.

Have A Happy Turkey Day All!!

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Washington Wizards

Coach: Eddie Jordan
2006-2007 Record: 41-41
06-07 Expected Record: 39.5 - 42.5
Offensive Rating: 109.8 (4th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 110.9 (28th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 49.1% (18th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 94.1 (5th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

I want to like Gilbert Arenas. Really, I do. I think he has tried harder than most athletes to connect with fans, and his blogging efforts have spearheaded a movement of NBA player blogs. I think he genuinely tries hard to get people interested in not only himself, but in the NBA as a whole. The problem is that, whatever intentions he may have, Gilbert comes across as a moron. He has no filter, so he ends up saying a bunch of really stupid stuff. Attitude-wise, he's got a me-against-the-world perspective that has served him well in motivating him to improve from 2nd rounder to All-Star, but at this point, that chip on his shoulder is a bit too big, and he needs to learn how to tuck it away and put team success ahead of his individual performance. On the court, Agent Zero is one of the toughest matchups in the league, and nearly impossible to check 1 on 1. He's blindingly quick, he shoots well from all over the court, and he gets to the line as well as anyone in the game. In addition to all that, he relishes the big moment, when he can take a team on his back and bury that game-winner at the buzzer. He's one of the few guys in the league who legitimately scares you with the ball in his hands at the end of a close game. Defensively, it's another story. Gilbert doesn't seem to have inclination to apply his physical gifts to defense, preferring instead the "matador"-style of defense.

I think Caron Butler gets overlooked a lot when you're talking about the top players in the East, but he quietly goes about his business and is consistently one of the better 2-way forwards out there. He's an excellent defensive player when he wants to be and is a great rebounder, as well as being a very good offensive player. Butler isn't much of a perimeter shooter, but he has a great mid-range game and he's an excellent free throw shooter. In fact, the biggest complaint about Butler's game might be that he doesn't get to the line enough, given that he spends a lot of time slashing to the rim and that he shoots such a high percentage from the stripe. If he can work on drawing contact and getting to the line more, he'd become a much more efficient offensive player. Of course, on the defensive end, Butler suffers from Wizarditis, also known as a complete and utter distain to giving any effort on defense. All the tools and talent is there, but too often the attitude isn't

You've got to respect Antwan Jamison. He's not particularly flashy, and he plays against guys with 2-3 inches on him a lot, but he's got great hands and a quick release, so he gets tons of garbage points around the basket. That used to be as far as his game went, but in recent years he has really improved his three-point stroke, becoming a true threat from there as well. He's a tough matchup because he can score in bunches, and he can also score naturally in the flow of the offense without many plays run for him because he moves so well without the ball. Of course, this comes at a cost because Jamison has never been confused with a good defender. As you'll note, this is kind of a theme for the Wizards.

The platoon of Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas is, shall we say, not so good. They're both fairly solid rebounders and shotblockers, but they're also both very bad offensive players. The extent of their offense is that they can dunk it if you throw it to them, neither can shoot free throws, and both are turnover machines.

Antonio Daniels is highly underrated. Sure, he doesn't play defense, but offensively he's one of the best backup guards in the game. He's a very smart player who shoots well, draws fouls as well as anyone (one of the league's highest rates of FTAs per FGAs), and passes well without turning the ball over much. Very solid, very overlooked.

Nick Young is a great talent and he has the potential to be very good one day, but he's not really what the Wiz needed. They desperately need a defensive post presence of some sort, and they didn't get one. They've got plenty of perimeter scoring, but they're awfully thin on the inside.

X-Factor: Andray Blatche - I've read a lot about Blatche's great talent and his potential to be a dominating rebounder and shotblocker. I've also read a lot about his immaturity and lack of interest in practice. If he could get his head on straight, Blatche could be the interior presence that the Wiz need to give them some semblance of a decent defense, which, given their explosive offense, would make the Wiz a very tough team. On the other hand, if he continues down his current path, Blatche will be riding on the Kwame Brown Express to nowhere.

Overview

The story of the Wizards last year was pretty simple. Great offense, terrible defense. That was about it. Very simply, Washington's big three were going to expend all their energy trying to outscore you, and they succeeded enough times to get into the playoffs. Of course, the end of their season was then ruined when injuries to Arenas and Butler kept them out of the postseason, all but ensuring that the Wiz had no chance.

Prediction

For a team that finished 7th in the East and showed less defensive intensity than a middle school girls team, the Wiz seemed surprisingly content to stand pat on what they had. The fact is that this team got great years from all 3 of their best players and were still very mediocre. This year they'll be facing tougher competition from an improved Eastern conference, and Arenas is still battling injuries early in the season. I just can't see this team sniffing the playoffs this year, they just don't give any defensive effort.

10th in the East - The Enigmas

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Toronto Raptors

Coach: Sam Mitchell
2006-2007 Record: 47-35
06-07 Expected Record: 44-38
Offensive Rating: 107.2 (9th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 105.8 (12th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 50.4% (10th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 92.6 (9th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

That Chris Bosh guy, he's pretty good. I remember watching the US Team's Red/White game over the Summer and thinking that he looked like Tim Duncan-Lite. He faces up a lot and is tough to stop because he's got such great quickness for a big man. He's also an exceptional mid-range shooter, so you can't just play off him. He's got great touch around the rim, and defensively he blocks shots without fouling. His big problem so far has been injury. The Raptors need him to shake off the foot problems that bothered him this summer, cause they don't have a prayer without him.

The Two-Headed Monster of T. Jose Forderon gives the Raps surprisingly good production at the point guard position. Ford had the best year of his young career, becoming a more proficient mid-range shooter and continuing to cut down on his turnovers (2.55 A/T Ratio). He had a great year last year, but it didn't seem very fluke-like, and I don't think there's much reason to expect him to play worse this season. He's a high-usage guy who is probably the one guy on the team outside of Bosh who can get hot and really carry the load for a stretch. Calderon, on the other hand, is a low-usage, high-efficiency guy who does a great job coming off the bench. He's an excellent passer and mid-range shooter, and last year he was an obscenely good finisher around the rim (63.8%). You can probably expect that percentage to drop off, but I also expect that Calderon will add more of a perimeter shot this year, which should offset that somewhat. Defensively he's very solid, and at 6'3 has the height to make it tough to shoot over him (as opposed to Ford, who often might as well not even be there).

Raise your hand if you knew who Anthony Parker was before last season (put it down, I know you're lying). Parker came back to the NBA after a long hiatus in Europe and ended up being one of the keys to Toronto's success. He was killer from behind the arc, draining  44% of his looks from downtown, and was one of the more underrated defenders in the league last year. Most likely he won't shoot quite as well this year as he shot last year, but his defense should still be plenty of reason to get him plenty of minutes.

I'm kind of torn on the acquisition of Kapono. On the one hand, I love that the Raps are surrounding Bosh with shooters on the wings, Kapono is a great fit for the team. On the other hand, they overpaid for him, and he doesn't do anything besides shoot. Defense and rebounding all seem to be foreign concepts to Jason, but man does he have a pretty shooting stroke, to the tune of a league-leading 51.4% from three-point land last year. Kapono has been a great shooter his whole career, so there's little reason to think he'll fall off too much, and that kind of shooting can forgive a lot of wrongs.

Word is that Carlos Delfino's perimeter shot looked WAY better over the summer than it has in previous years, which is good news for the Raps. Delfino has made good progress in each of his professional seasons, and he should fit in well with the international flavor that the Toronto has going on. He loves playing in the open court, and he's got very good court vision for a forward. Defensively, Delfino is above-average, and he's a very good rebounder for his position. He'll probably be the main backup at the 2 and 3 spots, and if his jumpshot really is that improved, he could steal the starting spot from Kapono.

Garbajosa is another one of those guys who statistics don't do a good job of quantifying. He's a pretty bad offensive player and he's not a very good rebounder, but his defensive toughness and versatility made him a big part of the Raptors' improvement as a defensive team last year (from 28th in the league to 12th). He's the consummate effort guy, and you love to have guys like that on the bench. In addition, he's a very good passer and shoots fairly well from the perimeter (34.2%).

X-Factor: Andrea Bargnani - He's 6'10, European, and has a quick release on his jumper, so he'd better get used to hearing the Dirk comparisons. While it's far too early to make that judgment, the talent is obviously there. Already, we've seen a bit of a nasty streak and penchant for trying to dunk over people in Bargnani that European guys sometimes lack, and that's a good thing. He moves really well for a big guy, and of course he's got that very good jumpshot. His struggles last year (defense, decision-making) are common mistakes for young players, and not surprising for a 21-year old player coming over from the European game, he also improved a huge amount in the second half of last year. He's got a lot to work on, rebounding and defense being the highest priority, but Bargnani should be a solid player, and possibly a star in the making. His playing style and ability to hit from the outside makes him a great compliment to Bosh in the interior, and his improvement will go a long way towards determining where this team finishes.

Overview

The Raptors made a huge jump in the standings last year by becoming a much better defensive team. They went from being the 3rd worst defensive team in the league to being above-average, which made a huge difference in the win column. The additions of Parker, Garbajosa, and Rasho Nesterovic made a big improvement, especially since they were replacing the likes of Charlie Villanueva, Jalen Rose, and Mike James. That defensive jump took them from having the 4th worst record in the East to having the 4th best. Offensively, the Raptors shoot a high percentage and very rarely turn the ball over, making them very efficient despite being the league's worst offensive rebounding club. On the defensive end, Toronto rebounded surprisingly well, getting quality rebounding from basically every spot on the floor instead of having multiple dominant post rebounders.

Prediction

The success of the Raptors this season will be largely dependent on the health of Chris Bosh. If his foot problems turn out to be no big deal, then Toronto should easily make the playoffs and be a threat in the postseason. The additions of Delfino and Kapono should improve the team, and it's not unreasonable to think they'll be a 45-47 win team. More importantly, I like the way this team is being built. They remind me a lot of the Spurs. They found a great big man to build around, and they're surrounding him with good defensive players, good shooters, and guys who take care of the ball. There's a good mix of youth and veteran talent here, and I think that bodes well for both the present and the future.

4th in the East - Playoffs or Bust