You know, I've tried to write this post like 6 times, and every time I just stall at the beginning and give it up. Maybe I'll actually get it written this time.

Anyway, we've hit the half way point of the NBA season. It's time to look back at what we've learned, as well as look forward to what we can expect from the rest of the season. With that in mind, lets take a look at some of the teams that I really missed on.

Memphis Grizzlies
Wow, did I miss on these guys or what? Strangely enough, a lot of what I thought would happen with them did happen. Rudy Gay really blossomed in his second year, becoming a potent scorer, J.C. Navarro has been one of the best rookies in the league and has had some truly spectacular shooting performances, and Mike Conley has played very well since returning from injury. They're actually a decent offensive team. However, where I was wrong was thinking that they would be an improved defensive team. Gay hasn't been much of a defender, even though he has all the tools for it, Kyle Lowry isn't having nearly as much impact as last year, and most importantly, Darko has been absolutely terrible. One reason I liked them so much was because an even slightly improved Darko would give them a much-needed shot-blocking presence in the back of their defense. Instead, Darko has, amazingly, been much, much worse than he was in Orlando last year. Of course, I also though 42 or 43 wins would get you into the playoffs out West, and that doesn't appear to be the case at this point. Oh well, they'll at least put themselves in good position to get Mike Beasley or DeAndre Jordan in the draft.

Chicago Bulls
I, like everyone else, have been pretty stunned by the poor performance of the Bulls. Now, to some extent we probably should've been able to see this coming. All the talk about a Kobe trade obviously had an effect on the young guys on this team. It was also painfully obvious that Ben Wallace was declining rapidly as a player. However, there's no way that anyone could've predicted the inexplicably bad play of the Bulls' young core players. To have one young guy regress when he should be improving is one thing, but for five guys under the age of 27? It's absolutely incredible. Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon and Thomas are all having worse seasons than last year. We're not just talking about slightly worse either, we're talking about them being significantly less productive. 7 of the top 8 guys on the team (with Joe Smith as the exception) are shooting worse than they were last season. It's absolutely mind-blowing how the young Bulls have regressed. I think we're going to see the Bulls in the playoffs at the end of this season 1) because they're in the East, and as bad as they've been they're only a game behind the Pacers for the last playoff spot right now, but also because 2) it's absolutely unheard of for a team full of young players to take a huge step backwards like this, and I think they'll bounce back some and be respectable by season's end.

Portland Trailblazers
I actually kind of thought Portland would be better than most people thought they would, but I never thought they'd have this kind of success. The biggest shocker to me has been the extraordinary play of Brandon Roy. I'll be honest, I thought Roy was a really good player when Portland drafted him, and I thought he'd make a few All-Star teams and be a really good player, but I never thought he'd be this good, this fast. He has become the unquestioned leader of the team that has the best chemistry in the league. He does all the little things and he's a big-time clutch player, making big shots, big defensive stops and getting big rebounds. I'd be hard-pressed to name a player with a better hesitation move than Roy, he reminds me a bit of Nash in the way that he always looks like he's completely under control. Of course, the other big reason for the Blazers' success has been the brilliant coaching of Nate McMillan. This Blazers team has great chemistry, they run their offensive sets really well, and they use zone defenses as well as any team in the league. That's great coaching, McMillan has got this young team executing and believing in themselves.

Those are the teams that have really surprised this year, but we've also learned a lot this season about the league's elite teams. With that in mind, I'm taking another look at my list of potential contenders and cutting it down to size a bit.

My list from the preseason looked like this (in no particular order): Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Jazz, Celtics, Nuggets, Bulls, Suns

My list now (again, in no particular order): Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers

So, why did I drop the teams I did?

Bulls are obvious, I'm not going to go over them

Jazz
They can't defend the post at all, and I can't bring myself to pick them in a conference with Duncan, STAT, Yao, Dirk, and now Bynum. You have to defend the post, and they can't.

Mavs
Gone unnoticed by basically everyone is the fact that the Mavs' defense has not been good this year. This team was 2nd in the league on offense and 5th on defense last year, this year they're 2nd on offense and 18th on defense. Add that to their playoff failures the last two years and this team screams "paper tiger" to me.

Suns
Hardest drop from the list for me. I love Nash and I think this team is tremendously talented. However, they're a worse defensive team than last year, and they aren't going to win a title that way. Amare continues to be a weakness defensively in the post, and Brian Skinner brings defense, but he doesn't have any offensive skills. Kurt Thomas was so great because he could both guard bigs and step out and hit the mid-range jumper, Skinner can't do that. I hate it, but bad defensive teams don't win titles.

You'll notice a common theme on why I didn't pick any of the previous teams. To put the importance of defense in perspective, there have only been 2 teams in the modern era who have won a title without a top 10 defense, and they were the '95 Rockets and the '01 Lakers (who don't even really count because they played great defense the year before and the year after and during the playoffs with essentially the same team, and obviously didn't care about the regular season this year). Moral of the story is that defense is really important.

You may also be wondering why the Hornets didn't make the list. Simply put, they don't have a bench. I would take their starting five against any other starting unit in the league, but they don't have the depth or the experience to make a deep run, especially not if anyone (read: Peja) gets hurt. I love the team, I love Chris Paul, they're a great story, but I don't think this is their year.

So, why the teams that I did pick?

I'm not going over the Spurs and Celtics, you all know why they're on that list.

Nuggets
They have two possible starters who are out indefinitely with injury (Nene and Chucky Atkins), Carmelo's production and efficiency is down significantly from his past two seasons, and they have a serious lack of three-point shooting. Still, they're 25-16 and first in their division. The reason is because Allen Iverson has fully embraced being a co-star with Melo and is having the most efficient season of his career, and because Marcus Camby takes this team from being a very bad defensive team to being a very good defensive team. If Atkins comes back healthy or they can add one more shooter through a trade, I think this becomes a very dangerous offensive team as well as a good defensive team, and that makes them a contender.

Rockets
They're the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they're an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman's system. As I wrote back when I blogged the season-opener between LA and Houston, McGrady dominating the ball so much absolutely kills this offense, and they often look significantly better without him on the court. However, they've still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing.

Pistons
I left them off in the preseason because I thought they were missing the tough, killer-instinct, underdog mentality that fueled their last title run. What I didn't count on was the Celtics getting off to a historical start and really lighting a fire under the Pistons to prove that they were the best team in the East. I honestly think that Boston's great start had a positive impact on the Pistons, that it lit a fire under them that they didn't have last year when LeBron trampled all over them in the playoffs. They're also getting fantastic bench production and they execute and exploit weak defenders as well as any team in the league. I still don't think they could beat the Spurs, but I think they could beat another team from the West if San Antonio doesn't make the finals

Lakers
This one comes with a caveat. I reserve the right to dismiss this if the post-injury Bynum we get isn't the same as pre-injury Bynum. LA has been a MUCH better defensive team this year because Bynum has been on the floor more, has become far less foul-prone, and has rebounded a lot better than last year. The bench and the contributions of Derek Fisher have been great, but Bynum is the key. He isn't an elite player yet by any means, but he has great hands and finishes well on offense, and he improves their defense exponentially. If he comes back playing as well as early on this season, the Lakers are a long-shot contender.

Well, this post has run on long enough, and I'm sure you're all tired of my wordiness. The last thing I'll leave you with is my MVP pick for the first half of the season.

MVP: LeBron James
 With all due respect to Kevin Garnett's fantastic work in Boston and Kobe's exceptional play and leadership (who 'da thunk it?), this isn't even close. Yes, I know about Boston's 33-7 record and how KG has gotten everyone playing great defense. I repeat, the MVP race is NOT EVEN CLOSE. Lebron uses more of his team's possessions than anyone outside of DWade, and his offensive rating this year is 12 points higher than Flash! He averages 30-8-7 with 2 steals and a block, and he shoots almost 50%. Lebron's AST% (an estimate of the percentage of his teammates' field goals his assists while on the court) is 6th in the league. 6th! He's one percentage point behind Deron Williams! It's not quite MJ numbers that we're talking about here, but we're getting close. LeBron is killing teams this year, and he's dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs. He's the MVP, Period.

Alright, that's it for me, I finally got this post cranked out. I'll be sharing my opinions on the All-Star team next post, which should be pretty soon, so keep a look out for that.

I'm on a college basketball kick right now and I thought this idea would make a good post (for those of you who usually come here for stuff on the NBA, I'll be making a post on the Association pretty soon). I stumbled upon this question last year in an SI.com column, and I think it's pretty cool.

If you were to make an ultimate team of college basketball players, and you had to take one player from each class (one frosh, one soph, one junior, one senior, and one of any class), what would your team look like?

Now, there are a few things to remember about this. First of all, sometimes you're going to have to sacrifice a player who you might have otherwise put on because it's more important to get another guy of his class in at a different position. Second, we're not necessarily looking for the 5 most talented players, I don't need 5 guys who average 20+, we're trying to put together the best TEAM.

I came into this with a basic plan of how I wanted the team built. I want players who can play defense, shoot the ball, and who don't turn the ball over much. Having shooters is especially important in college basketball because zones are much more prevalent than in the NBA. You also see a lot more full-court pressure in college, making it more important to have players who can handle the ball without giving it away. Lastly, I wanted, as much as possible, to have 5 good free throw shooters, so as not to have a weak link that could be easily focused on.

Alright, we're going to build from the base up, starting with the best freshman in the land, and probably the most talented player in the nation.

PF - Michael Beasley, Kansas State, Fr
He's the nation's 5th leading scorer, he leads the nation in rebounds, he's scored 30+ five times, he's topped 20 rebounds twice, and he's had double digit boards in every game. He does all that while shooting 56% from the field, 71% from the line, and 35% from three-point range. Not only that, but he often looks like he isn't even trying. The game comes so easily to him that there are times when he isn't even using all his tremendous athletic ability and he still dominates. For example, I watched him play against a good Oregon team and he didn't even look particularly athletic, he wasn't facing up from outside, getting out on the break, or dunking over people. What he was doing was winning the position battle every time down the court and either sealing his man and finishing, or ending up with great rebounding position. He finishes through contact as well as anyone in the nation, taking the hit and still finishing with a soft touch. Beasley is dominant when he isn't trying, and he's transcendent when he's giving full effort.

C - Jason Thompson, Rider, Sr
The most underrated player in the country, and it isn't close. After being one of only three D1 players to average 20-10 last year (along with Kevin Durant and Nick Fazekas), and he's been even better this year. I've watched him a few times this year, and both times I came away amazed that NBA scouts aren't more excited about this guy. He's got an NBA body, strong post moves, and perimeter skills that few 6-10 guys have. He'll kill you on the blocks, he'll kill you on the glass, and he'll kill you facing up from mid-range. On top of all that, and this was one of the big reasons for his selection, he's one of the nation's premier defenders. He was named to collegeinsider.com's All-Defensive team last year, and he did a great job on Beasley earlier this year, holding him to 13-10 on 5 for 11 shooting. Not only does he block a ton of shots, but he plays great fundamental defense too. For this position, I wanted to get someone who could defend and rebound to complement Beasley, and my first thought was Joey Dorsey. However, Dorsey isn't an offensive force at all, and I just couldn't take the horrific FT%. I also thought about Roy Hibbert, but he isn't the versatile threat that Thompson is and isn't as dominant a rebounder.

PG - D.J. Augustin, Texas, So
Now we get to the really tough decisions. There were any number of players that I could've put here, and compelling arguments could be made for all of them. UNC's Ty Lawson, Kansas' Mario Chalmers, MSU's Drew Neitzel, Marquette's Dominic James, and Virginia's Sean Singeletary all made this a difficult choice. In the end, the final decision finally came down to Augustin versus VCU's Eric Maynor (you might remember him from when he dispatched Duke in the tourney last year). Maynor has been brilliant this year, and we know he's clutch after seeing him clinch games down the stretch last year. However, Augustin has to be the pick here. He was underrated last year playing in the shadow of Kevin Durant, and he has been nothing short of brilliant this year in leading a very surprising Texas team to much more early success than was expected of them. He has shown the ability to distribute and manage a game, he's shown the ability to defer to another star player, and he's shown the ability to take over on his own. If you're looking for a point guard, it doesn't get much better than that in my opinion.

SF - Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis, Jr
When looking for a junior to fill the G/F spot, there are really only 2 choices, CDR and Kansas' Brandon Rush. Now, while Rush is a fantastic player, he is starting slowly after an offseason injury, and he just isn't in the same class as Douglas-Roberts. CDR is the driving force for the country's best team on both ends of the court, and he has really stepped his game up this year. He's one of the premier slashers in the nation, getting to the rim seemingly at will, and he can finish with either hand, as well as having a very good floater in the lane. Defensively, he's one of the best lockdown perimeter defenders out there. He doesn't rack up a lot of steals or blocks, so it doesn't show up in the box score, but his strength and defensive fundamentals make him a really tough matchup.

SG - Shan Foster, Vanderbilt, Sr
I really wanted to put Washington State's Kyle Weaver here, but he and Douglas-Roberts are just too similar, and neither are very proficient shooters. Foster, on the other hand, does not have that problem. He may be one-dimensional, but what a dimension it is. Foster was a good shooter last year, but he's been absolutely unconscious this year. He's shooting a blistering 51% from behind the three-point arc, and has easily been college basketball's best shooter this season. He runs off screens really well, and he has a high, behind-the-head type release that makes his shot very tough to contest. It was a tough choice between Foster and Davidson's Stephen Curry, but Foster has just been too good. He may not bring a whole lot else to the table, but you can be sure nobody is going to try and throw a zone at this team with Foster out there.

Coach - Tom Izzo, Michigan State
With all due respect to the wonderful jobs that Mike Krzyewski (Duke), Tony Bennett (Washington State), Sean Miller (Xavier) and Bo Ryan (Wisconsin) are doing, Izzo's coaching this year has been nothing short of brilliant. I watched his Michigan State team put on an absolute clinic against my beloved Wolfpack, running them out of the gym with brilliant off-the-ball screens and near-perfect execution to get wide open shot after wide open shot. He has seamlessly integrated an infusion of younger talent with his older, veteran guys and has really gotten the most out of his players. He's been a coaching icon for years now, but this season has been some of his best work.

There you go, let me know what you think about my picks. Remember, it's ok to disagree with me as long as you don't mind being wrong.

Well, we're just over a fourth of the way through the NBA season, and we've seen enough to get a pretty good look at which areas contenders need to strengthen in order to improve. We are also past the Dec. 15th date that allows free agents signed over the summer to be traded. With all that in mind, I turn to one of ESPN's greatest ideas, the Trade Machine, to come up with some logical deals that probably won't happen, but should. Some will be based around big-name players, and some will simply be role player swaps.

So, lets get this started with everybody's favorite trade rumor, Jason Kidd. Now, everything coming out of the Nets organization indicates that he isn't on the trading block, but that's no fun, so lets assume he is. It would be a logical move for a team that is on the decline and not playing well at all this year. Kidd is making $40 mil over the next two years for a team going nowhere, so if you can shave salary and bring in some young pieces with him, you've done a pretty good job. However, Kidd's $20 mil salary makes him very difficult to trade, and there are really only 3-4 teams that have the combination of young players and contracts to bring him in. I outlined a longshot Denver deal in this blog a few posts ago, but these are all probably more realistic trades.

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Dallas: receives Jason Kidd
New Jersey: receives Devin Harris, Erick Dampier, Trenton Hassell and an '08 first rounder

That would be the bare minimum of the deal, with Dallas maybe throwing in another first rounder. The problem for this deal is that Dallas doesn't have any large, expiring contracts to match Kidd's salary, so New Jersey would have to be willing to take back Dampier's terrible deal. Harris is a tempting target, but I think we can do better than this.

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Miami: receives Jason Kidd
New Jersey: receives Dorell Wright, Jason Williams, Daequan Cook, Smush Parker, Alonzo Mourning, and an '08 first rounder

That's more like it. The Nets would be bringing in 2 solid young players and 3 expiring contracts that would end up saving them a bunch of money and freeing up cap space. The Heat, who seem hell-bent on trying to remain contenders, would immediately have one of the league's top backcourts and could take one last shot at making noise in the playoffs. Of course, Miami would be completely mortgaging their future by trading away all their young assets, but with Shaq getting $60 mil over the next 3 years, it's pretty well mortgaged anyway, might as well take the shot while you've got it. We're not quite done though, there's one more team that desperately needs a veteran point guard, and has plenty of young assets to offer.

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Atlanta: receives Jason Kidd
New Jersey: receives Shelden Williams, Marvin Williams, Tyronn Lue, Salim Stoudamire, and Zaza Pachulia

The Hawks would be dealing from positions of strength in order to shore up their one big weakness. A starting lineup of Kidd, Johnson, Childress, Smith and Horford would be good enough to play with anyone in the East, and bring some much-needed excitement to a near-dead Atlanta franchise. The Nets would pick up a good young big and a SF oozing with untapped potential, along with some contract relief. They could probably get an '09 draft pick out of it too.

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Trying to put deals together, you realize why the Nets seem so reluctant to trade Kidd. The market for him is really small, and they most likely won't be getting very good value on the trade for him. Of all of these, I like the Miami trade best for the Nets, but who knows which way the Heat organization is moving right now. Anyway, since we just talked about an Atlanta trade for a point guard, lets move on to another, more feasible deal.

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Atlanta: receives Andre Miller
Philadelphia: receives Marvin Williams and Tyronn Lue.

The Sixers are in full-rebuild mode, and the first order of business should be to move the one veteran on their team who has real trade value. The obvious destination for Miller would seem to be the somewhat-surprising Atlanta Hawks, who desperately need an experienced point guard if they want to keep up their success and make a playoff run. Williams is a good player, but the Hawks have a huge excess at the SF position, and can afford to trade him to address their weakest position. As for the Sixers, they get a tremendous talent who would combine with Andre Iguadola to give them one of the most athletic young wing tandems in the league.

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After reading this article a while back, I've started thinking about possible trade scenarios for Ron Artest. I know that Artest is certifiably crazy, but don't you have to take a look at him if you're a contender trying to add toughness? I mean, his contract is one of the best values in the league, he's super-intense (to a fault), wants desperately to win, and is one of the game's best defenders (and he's strong enough to defend almost anyone at any position). You need a team with a strong coach and a definite alpha dog, but he can definitely be a great acquisition. That leads me to this next trade.

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Lakers: receive Ron Artest and Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Kings: receive Kwame Brown, Ronny Turiaf, Sasha Vujacic and an '08 first rounder

Honestly, I love the idea of this trade. The Lakers seem like the perfect destination for Artest. They desperately need defensive intensity, and between Artest and Bryant, they'd definitely have that. He's also a versatile scoring option who is a matchup nightmare for most opponents. He would certainly respect Phil Jackson, and there would be no doubt who was the alpha dog on that team. It just seems like a fantastic match to me. In return, the Lakers agree to take on Reef's dead-weight contract, and the Kings get tons of cap relief, a first rounder, and a solid young player in Turiaf.

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These last two trades don't have the big names, but I think they're interesting in that they plug holes on contending teams.

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Utah: receives Kurt Thomas and Bostjan Nachbar
Seattle: receives Paul Millsap, Gordan Giricek, Ronnie Price, Jarron Collins
New Jersey: receives Kyrylo Fesenko and Mouhamed Sene

The thinking behind this was that Utah is a fantastic offensive team and very close to being a contender, but they've had two main problems this year. The first problem has been their interior defense, which just isn't very good. Okur and Boozer are both pretty poor defenders, and you're not going to win the West without post defense, there are just too many good interior scorers. The answer to this is Thomas, who defended Tim Duncan as well as anyone in last year's playoffs, and brings a veteran presence to that frontline. The second thing that has killed the Jazz so far is their lack of shooters. Portland has absolutely suffocated them twice by going into a zone and daring them to shoot, and you can bet that they'll see more of that in the future. Enter Nachbar, a deadeye perimeter shooter who has struggled a bit this year, but has great range and a quick release. For Seattle, they give up Thomas' expiring contract and the disappointing Sene, but they gain Millsap, who has been a force off the bench for the Jazz, and promises to have a very strong career. The Nets, instead of watching Nachbar leave over the summer or overpaying for him, get the promising young big Fesenko, and the athletic but rawer than raw Sene.

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Boston: receives Sergio Rodriguez
Portland: receives an '08 second rounder

As we witnessed during the fourth quarter of the Pistons game, the Celtics have a severe lack of ball-handling behind Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen. With the two of them out of the game, Detroit went into a halfcourt trap and immediately ran off 6-8 points as they completely disrupted Boston's offense. Rodriguez would give them another guy who can handle the ball who at least has been around the league for a few years. For Portland, it's obvious that Rodriguez isn't cracking into their point guard rotation, so they would be getting back the second rounder that they traded to Boston, and they'd be saving about $1.6 mil (they're over the luxury tax, so his salary counts double).

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Well, there you go. Some exciting trades, some not so exciting. We probably won't see any of them because, as Bill Simmons so aptly puts it, this is the No Balls Association, and most GMs have no backbone. Anyway, feel free to chime in with any trade ideas you've got  in the comments.

A week ago when I wrote my last post, I almost posted something about the Trail Blazer's 5-game winning streak, but I decided it was a bit premature and that they probably wouldn't keep it up. Silly me. Portland has added 3 very strong wins to that, and it's time to take a look at what the Blazers are doing.

You can basically dismiss the first three games of the streak because they came against pretty poor competition (man did I miss the mark with Memphis). However, the last 5 wins have been extremely impressive, coming against 4 Western Conference playoff teams (Utah twice), and playing without LaMarcus Aldridge. Perhaps even more impressive than the level of competition is the fact that 2 of the wins came on the road, where the young Blazers have really struggled. So, what is Portland doing so well that they've managed to win 5 quality games without Aldridge's 19 and 8 each night?

First of all, note that the Blazers haven't changed their mindset with Aldridge out. They've been one of the slowest teams in the league this year, with only Detroit playing less possessions per game than Portland. Through the streak, they haven't upped the tempo at all, and in fact have even slowed down a bit more, averaging a turtle-slow 90.6 possessions per game. Another important statistic is that they haven't been shooting much better than usual these last 5 games (roughly equivalent FG% and lower 3PT%), which actually bodes well for the future since it indicates that they aren't just on a hot streak. Lastly, the Blazers' assist, turnover, steal, and block totals are almost exactly on their season average during this streak, nothing that jumps out there.

So what are the Blazers doing? Well, for the season they're one of the league's poorer defensive teams, with their defensive rating of 104.4 coming in at 21st in the league. During this 5 game streak against 4 good offensive teams (New Orleans was the worst at 16th in the league offensively), Portland has posted a defensive efficiency of 100.6, an improvement of nearly 4 points per hundred possessions. That's a huge jump for a team to make. Where did the improvement come from? The biggest factor is the increase in minutes for Joel Przybilla in Aldridge's absence. Przybilla may be an offensive non-factor, but he's a terrific defender and rebounder, and Aldridge just isn't a defensive presence at this point in his career. The other significant factor is that less minutes are going to defensively-challenged Martell Webster, and more are going to solid defenders Travis Outlaw and James Jones.

So, the defense is better, but they've had a few offensive problems without Aldridge, right? Not exactly. Even more impressive than their defensive improvement is the Blazers' offensive execution without Aldridge. Their offensive efficiency for the season is 102.7, but during the streak it has been a blistering 111.5, a point and a half above Dallas' league-leading season average. They put up a 128 offensive rating AT DENVER (the second best defense in the league)!! What's going on here? They're shooting about the same percentage, they're turning the ball over the same amount, they're not getting more offensive rebounds. What the heck is making Portland so much better offensively? The answer is that they're going to the easiest place to get points, namely the free-throw line. the Blazers are playing aggressively, getting to the line nearly 6 more times per game during this stretch, and shooting 3 percentage points higher from the stripe. The two driving forces behind this change are Outlaw and Brandon Roy (who has been spectacular), who are both averaging around 6 FTAs per game in the last 5 games. The lesson? Practice your foul shots kids, they aren't fancy, but they win games.

While we are at it, I'd like to take a look at those two guys, who really have fueled this streak. The way Outlaw is playing this year, he'd be a front-runner for Sixth Man of the Year if this weren't The Year of the Reserve (Manu, Terry and Barbosa all playing so well). He's a terrific athlete and we've talked about his potential for years, but this year he has started to put together consistent performances. He's averaging 17-6 with a block and a steal in 30 minutes a game during December (including five 20-point games). Between he and James Jones (who is playing out of his mind right now) and the occasional strong game from Webster, the Blazers have a very strong SF rotation.

















Meanwhile, Roy has been playing out of his mind. It still boggles my mind how this guy slipped as far as he did in the draft (when he was obviously the best player in that draft class). His hesitation move in the lane is as good as anyone in the league. He'll beat his man and get into the lane, then slow up for half a second to let the big step towards him, then he goes right to the rim, often completely unchallenged because he got the post player so far out of position. It's really subtle, but between that and his ability to crossover in traffic, he's one of the league's best at maneuvering in the paint. His December has been ridiculous as he's putting up 22-5-7 with under 2 turnovers a game.

Looking forward at the schedule, Portland plays the next 5 games at home, where they've been fantastic (10-3), and only 2 of those are difficult opponents (Toronto and Denver). With a little luck, it's entirely possible that the Blazers could be 18-12 and riding a 13 game winning streak as they start their road trip in Utah at the end of December. This seems like a good time to mention that the odds of a sub-.500 team having a 10-game winning streak are 3%. Now, that's not to say that the Blazers are world-beaters, but I think we can say with some reasonable certainty that this is a solid team. At worst, they're an absolute menace at home, and you certainly don't look at a game against them and say "that one's a gimme".

As one final note, I'm feeling renewed confidence in saying that Portland will bring home a championship within the next five years. They have a solid team built of basically all young players this year, and they have even more talent waiting in the wings. Remember, in addition to Oden they own the rights to Rudy Fernandez, Joel Freeland, and Petteri Koponen, who are playing overseas (I've read scouts say that all 3 of those guys have lottery-level talent and potential, but they all fell to late-first round because they would have to wait in Europe to develop). This team has more young talent than any two other teams in the league combined. It's a good time to be a Blazers fan.

Two posts in two days, I'm on a freaking roll :P

I normally like to keep things mixed up and not just spit out a smattering of NBA opinions day after day, but I can't help myself. I watched the tail end of Houston-Detroit and then Utah-Phoenix last night, and I just had too many thoughts bouncing around to not write.

-Before I move on, I just want to go back and look at that quote I posted about Dwight "The Hammer" Howard in my last post. I'll repost it so you don't have to go look for it, and because it's so awesome.

At one point Suns guard Raja Bell, never one to shy away from contact, asked assistant Alvin Gentry what approach to take when Howard comes steaming down the lane on a screen-and-roll.

"Should I step in and plug?" said Bell.

"I'd just get the hell out of the way in that situation," answered Gentry.

"Just making sure we were on the same page," said Bell.

I didn't really harp on this much in my last post, and I should have. Bell had his coach basically eschew solid defensive positioning because of how powerful Howard is. That, my friends, is respect. There are few players who had that kind of intimidation factor, guys like Shaq or Barkley, who you make you genuine fear for your safety.

- Absolutely brutal performance on the foul line by Houston, and it nearly cost them the game. It just became epidemic, and normally very good free throw shooters (Yao and T-Mac) were struggling. You know, I was really high on the Rockets before the season if they could stay healthy, but even healthy they don't look all that great. In addition to some personnel problems, they lack the mental toughness necessary for success. Some of their bit guys bring the physical toughness (Hayes, Battier, Wells), but as a team, and it seems especially their two stars, they lack mental sharpness. Particularly telling was this quote:

"It's mental. It's just you and the basket," said McGrady, who missed all five of his attempts. "And the fans definitely don't make it easy on you. Every time you miss, [they say], 'Awwww!' 'Awwww!' That's the worst thing you can do to a player -- especially at home."
I've always been a T-Mac fan, but that's not what you want your star to say.

- I don't get some of the things Rick Adelman is doing with this team. How does Mike James not play while Rafer Alston plays 35 minutes? Every time I've watched Houston this year, James has outplayed Alston. Also, there are times when Yao has it going and just can't be stopped, and then inexplicably they'll pull him out to run pick and roll with McGrady, who ends up taking a tough 1 on 1 shot most of the time. If Yao is scoring at will on the low block, why not go to him every single time until the opponent makes a change. It's not like teams can easily take him away, Yao is one of the best big men when it comes to passing out of the double team.

- If Yao wants to call out his team for being soft, maybe he should wait until he can run the length of the court 5-6 times without panting and grabbing his knees. Everything I've ever read about Yao says he's very dedicated to improving his game, and I respect that, but he has to improve his conditioning.

- Watching the highlights of Detroit's game against Memphis Tuesday and comparing it to this one reveals a lot about the Pistons' offense. The Pistons are phenomenal against bad defensive teams, since they're so efficient and they make you pay for every mistake you make. However, they tend to struggle against upper-echelon defensive teams because they don't really have anyone who can create their own shot. They're going to win a lot of games because they're a solid offensive team and they have a strong defense, but one of the reasons I don't see them as a title contender is because they struggle so much against good defenses, and they'll certainly see that in Boston, San Antonio, Houston, Denver, even Chicago (who are 2-0 so far against the Pistons).

- Kevin Durant has dropped 30+ in 3 of his last 7 games. That slamming sound you heard? That was the sound of the door closing on anyone else's chance at RoY.

- If you wanted to show a young player the importance of fundamentals like using your weak hand or putting arc on your jumper, you could've just sat them down in front of the Jazz-Suns game and said "just watch Nash and Boozer". I'm firmly convinced that Nash is the best weak-hand passer ever, he's just amazing. He's also got one of the most consistent shooting strokes you'll see on a player today, every jumper is textbook. Nash rarely gets mentioned among the league's elite shooters, he should be. Boozer flies a bit under the radar, but he shoots 58% from the field, and very few of those are dunks. He's as good as anyone in the league at finishing with either hand at the rim, and it makes him extremely effective. His short to mid-range jumper is also a thing of beauty. Few players get the kind of arc on their shots that Boozer does, so despite playing center at 6'9 a lot, he rarely gets his shot blocked. He absolutely killed Yao with this in the playoffs last year, dropping ridiculously high-arcing jumpers over a guy who had 9 inches on him.

- Phoenix and Utah seem like almost mirror images of each other to me. High-scoring, but poor defensively. Star point guards who are great shooters and have exceptional floor vision. Star F/Cs who are offensively-minded and don't play great defense. Versatile, athletic, do-everything forwards who are top defenders. Defensive-minded shooting guards. Obviously, there are still a lot of differences, but they strike me as very similar teams. Phoenix's top 7 are better, but Utah's bench runs much deeper.

- If you're Denver, don't you have to be trying as hard as possible to pry Jason Kidd away from the Nets? What better way to re-energize Carmelo (who thrived playing with Kidd on Team USA this summer) and invigorate a stagnant offense? He's also the perfect fit with Iverson because he can guard 2s while Iverson guards point guards, but he lets Iverson play off the ball on offense. He helps them with rebounding (they're in the bottom 10 in the league in that category), and fits right into an up-tempo system. If you're Denver, don't you have to be mortgaging anything and everything to try and get him without giving up AI, Melo, or Camby? I'd be telling the Nets that they have their pick of anyone besides those three, and they can have any draft picks they want over the next few years. How about something like this:

New Jersey gets: Nene, J.R. Smith, Eduajdo Najera, Chucky Atkins, Von Wafer, 08 first-rounder, 09 first-rounder, the kitchen sink.
Denver gets: Kidd

Denver could also use it's $3 mil trade exception to try and take on a multi-year contract for someone in exchange for them sending a 2nd rounder to New Jersey (example: Denver takes on Mark Madsen's contract (3 years remaining) and Minnesota sends a 2nd round pick to New Jersey). It's certainly not a great haul for Jersey, but there really aren't that many trading partners out there who are willing to offer much (or have the contracts to make it happen), and they get a young big man with solid potential, Smith (who oozes potential and could be great, but has an expiring contract if they just want to let him go and save the money), Najera's expiring contract, Atkins, who could be trade bait to another contender along with Najera, Wafer (who has, at very least, torn up the summer league), and 2 first-round picks. It's certainly a better package than what the Nuggets used to get AI. You have to make this offer, don't you? Would anyone want to play a team starting Kidd, AI, Melo, K-Mart, and Camby? That would be a heck of a team.

- Stat of the Night tonight: Brendan Haywood had 12 points and 10 rebounds on 6-8 shooting in 32 minutes. Shaq had 7 points and 6 rebounds on 3-6 shooting in 27 minutes. I did warn you all that Shaq's time as a dominant player was over.

Video of the Day: Power Thirst