If you're not pumped about this year's NBA postseason, you might want to check your pulse. No fooling around, without further ado, we get to the picks.

East - First Round

1) Boston Celtics vs. 8) Atlanta Hawks

I'm not going to spend time talking about this one, Boston wins this one in a walk.

Pick: Boston

2) Detroit Pistons vs. 7) Philadelphia 76ers

I think this is going to be a deceivingly close series. Detroit has a tendency to take things for granted, and Philly has come on like gangbusters at the end of the year. They've got some legitimately good young players and they're so athletic that they can really score in bunches on you. They're not going to win the series, but I think it could go 6 close games.

Pick: Detroit

3) Orlando Magic vs. 6) Toronto Raptors

Both these teams confuse me. I really don't like Orlando, and I really think Toronto is better than they're showing. However, I just don't think Toronto has enough to win here. Bosh vs. Howard is a fantastic matchup, but the Raptors can't match up with both Lewis and Turkoglu. The disappointment of Bargnani really leaves them at a disadvantage at the forward spot. I want to call the upset here since T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon vs. Jameer Nelson is a big advantage, but I just don't like the matchups. The Raptors could win this one, but I'm not seeing it.

Pick: Orlando

4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5) Washington Wizards

Best first round matchup in the East. I was all ready to call the Wizards on this one, but they decided to go and mouth off about LeBron. Seriously, they've got huge edges against the Cavs at every position but SF, and they keep poking at the one guy capable of completely taking over a playoff series.  Seriously guys, you think taunting LeBron is the way to go?  The only way the Wizards lose this series is if LeBron goes nuts, and they keep giving him ample reason to do so. I don't know what to do with this. Washington is the better team, but betting against LeBron in this situation doesn't sit well with me. I'm very tenatively picking Washington, but I think it's almost 50-50.

Pick: Washington

Second Round

1) Celtics vs. 5) Washington

I like Tough Juice and I like Arenas coming off the bench, but the Celtics are just too good. They're a lockdown defensive team, and they can throw enough strong finishers at PF and C out there to overwhelm a weak Washington frontline.

Pick: Boston

2) Pistons vs. 3) Magic

Again, the Pistons scare me because of their complacency, and Dwight Howard will probably have a few crazy games in these playoffs. Still though, Detroit's the deeper and more talented team, and I just can't see Orlando pulling this one off. Unlike Toronto, they've got the lengthy wing defenders that can match up with Lewis and Turkoglu

Conference Finals

1) Boston vs. 2) Detroit

Great matchup, and I think this one could easily go 7. KG vs. Sheed, Pierce vs. Prince, Rondo vs. Billups. We've got some really dynamic defensive matchups here. Last year, I probably go with Detroit here. However, after watching them flame out so spectacularly against Cleveland and witnessing their cavalier attitude at times this year, I can't do it. The Celtics are desperate for a title, and they're going to show up each game. Also, I don't think you're taking a game 7 at the Garden, I'm just not seeing that.

First Round - West

1) LA Lakers vs. 8) Denver Nuggets

This is the matchup that the Lakers wanted to see. Much as I like Denver as a sleeper pick, their biggest weakness is that they leave far too many shooters open on the perimeter, and the Lakers just have way too many good shooters. You can't beat LA if you're going to leave Derek Fisher wide open 6-7 times a game. Denver can win a game or two, but I don't think they've got a shot at the upset.

Pick: Lakers

2) New Orleans Hornets vs. 7) Dallas Mavericks

The next three series are all ridiculously close. I like New Orleans in this one. They have trouble defending Dirk, but I don't think Dallas can handle Chris Paul. The thing I'm most concerned about with the Hornets is their depth, and in a first round series against a team that plays as slow as Dallas I don't see that being a factor. It's gonna be close, but I just don't think Chris Paul is losing this series.

Pick: New Orleans in a close one

3) San Antonio Spurs vs. 6) Phoenix Suns

You know, I was all set to pick San Antonio to win it all without any reservations. Then, they had to go and get matched up against their worst matchup. Is this a fantastic series or what? The rivalry between these teams, the star power, everything, it's amazing. Shaq defends Duncan as well as anyone, and Grant Hill has done a shockingly good job shutting down Tony Parker in the 4th quarter. Amare is playing out of his mind right now and Nash is still Nash. Here's the thing though, I'm still picking the Spurs. Duncan in the regular season isn't Duncan in the playoffs, and I don't think Shaq can guard Playoff Duncan without fouling out quickly. Also, last year the Manu-Barbosa thing was kind of a wash. This year, Barbosa has taken a step back and Manu has blown up to an All-NBA level. Phoenix doesn't have anyone who can handle him. This is such a killer matchup, and I think whoever wins it probably has a good shot at winning it all.

Pick: San Antonio

4) Houston Rockets vs. 5) Utah Jazz

Here's the irony of the thing, Houston might be better equipped to beat Utah this year than they were last year. Much as I love Yao, he wasn't effective defensively at all against Carlos Boozer or against Deron Williams on the pick and roll. This year, Houston's power forwards are so much better and their much more mobile as a team without Yao. They're playing really fantastic defense right now. On the other side, I really don't believe in the Jazz. Their post defense is just so weak. I honestly think this could be an upset, especially with how poorly Utah plays on the road. The thing that holds me back from picking the Rockets is Rafer Alston's injury. He has really done a great job on both ends of the floor this year, and I don't think Houston can take both of the first two games without him. Also, Utah can throw both Ronnie Brewer and AK47 at T-Mac all series, and I think he's going to run out of gas a bit. Utah is the pick, but it's going to be closer than people think.

Pick: Utah

Second Round

1) Lakers vs. 4) Jazz

No way the Jazz win back-to-back series without home court advantage, I'm just not seeing it. They're actually fairly similar teams in a lot of ways, LA has more depth and they've got Kobe, and that's the difference. Honestly, I don't think this one will be all that close.

Pick: LA

2) Hornets vs. 3) Spurs

The problem I've had with the Hornets is their depth, and that's still the issue. Jannero Pargo is good off the bench, and Bonzi Wells is decent at SF, but if Tyson Chandler gets in foul trouble they've got nobody behind him. I don't see him going a whole series against Duncan without landing in significant foul trouble. San Antonio is just too good, New Orleans doesn't have the defenders to match up with Duncan, Parker and Manu.

Pick: Spurs

Conference Finals

1) Lakers vs. 3) Spurs

If Andrew Bynum were healthy, it would be awfully tough to pick against the Lakers. As is, I don't think anyone on this LA team even comes close to slowing Timmy. I've felt all year that LA's defense is a bit of a mirage, not quite as good as the numbers indicate, and I'm sticking to that. Without Bynum, I just don't see them stopping the Spurs. Sorry Laker fans, but the Spurs are a great defensive team and they've got Duncan, that's enough for me in this case.


NBA Finals

1) Celtics vs. 3) Spurs

I really want to pick the Spurs here, I do. I believe they've earned that respect. They always turn it on in the playoffs, and they're awfully good. The thing is, they'll be coming off a much harder road to the Finals, and Boston matches up well with them. Garnett is the rare player who can really bother Duncan, Rondo vs. Parker is a great matchup, and Boston has better depth. So, much as I hate to do it, the pick is...ah screw it, I'm going with the Spurs. I can't bet against them, I just can't. I think Duncan is about to remind us of why he's one of the top ten players ever.

Pick: San Antonio for 07-08 NBA champions.

Here's the thing with the MVP race this year, you can make a legitimate argument for four different candidates. The candidates are all so worthy and so different that I wouldn't argue anyone's choice if they backed it up logically. Of course, there are a lot of illogical arguments out there, and I have no qualms about destroying them with my scathing wit :P. Also, if you're going to argue that the MVP is anyone other than KG, LeBron, Kobe or CP3, you have to wear the stupid helmet.

What makes this MVP race especially difficult to decide is that the candidates are so completely different. Do you think that the MVP is the best player on the best team? It's hard to argue against KG there. Do you think the MVP is the most productive player? LeBron has a pretty strong claim to that distinction. You can make the case for anyone, and a lot of it depends on what you think the MVP award means. How do you define "Valuable"? As I write this, I'm not even sure who my pick is, I'm just going to make the best case I can for each player.

Make no mistake, this is not who I think will win the award. Kobe's going to win it, I don't think there's any doubt about that. This is who should win the award.

I'm gonna throw some statistics out there that you might not know. They aren't necessary to understand, but I'm just putting them out there. I explain them quickly in this post, a little way down the page.

LeBron James
Relevant Statistics:
51.8% eFG
71.2% FT
11.1 RB%
37.3 AST%
11.4 TO%
33.5 Usage%
116 ORtg

So, halfway through the year I announced that LeBron was my midseason MVP. What's changed since then? For LeBron and the Cavs, absolutely nothing. LeBron's stats are almost identical now to what they were at the halfway point. The Cavs' record at that point was 23-18, they ended the season at 45-37, almost exactly the same winning percentage. In fact, what I said at the time looks almost prescient in retrospect,

"LeBron is killing teams this year, and he's dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs."

Quite simply, LeBron has been superb this season. Make whatever arguments you want about clutch or leadership or whatnot, but the fact of the matter is that LeBron has produced more, night-in and night-out, than any player in the league. To put things in perspective, the Cavs play the 6th slowest pace in the league, almost 10 possessions per game less than league-leading Denver. Despite that, he's putting up the kind of numbers that Oscar Robertson put up in his prime. He absolutely denies comparison, Within a few years, we could legitimately be talking about him in the "Greatest Of All Time" sense.History may show us to be fools if we deny him here. LeBron James has to be the MVP.

Chris Paul
Relevant Statistics
52.4% eFG
85.1% FT
6.2 RB%
52.2  AST%
12.1 TO%
25.7 Usage%
125 ORtg

It's taken Chris Paul a mere three seasons to draw comparisons to Isiah Thomas in his prime. Three years to rejuvenate basketball in New Orleans. Three years to become the unquestioned leader of the #2 seed in the toughest conference in history. Three years to give the Hornets their first ever division title. Three years. That's how long it took him to average 21 points and 12 assists per game. You know how long you've got to go back to find the last guy who went 20 and 10 with assists? All the way back to the 92-93 season, when Timmy Hardaway did it. Even more impressive? Paul did it while playing on the 5th slowest team in the league. When he was on the floor, CP3 assisted on 52% of his teammates' field goals. The only other guy ever to do that? It's this guy you might have heard of, goes by "Stockton". He's responsible for single-handedly making Tyson Chandler an offensive force. You want to see improving your teammates? The two seasons before he came to New Orleans, Chandler shot 52.3% on 4.4 FGA per game. In two seasons with Paul, Chandler has shot 62.3% on 7.1 FGA per game, and the Paul-to-Chandler alley-oop has become one of the NBA's signature plays. In three short years he's taken the title of "best point guard" from a hall of famer still playing some of the best ball of his career. He's one of the most efficient players in the NBA, he's the league's best point guard, and he saved basketball in New Orleans. Chris Paul has to be the MVP.

Kobe Bryant
Relevant Statistics
50.3% eFG
84% FT
9.0 RB%
23.9  AST%
11.3 TO%
31.4 Usage%
115 ORtg

Over the last 5 years, Kobe Bryant has arguably been the best basketball player on the planet. He's been to the Finals, he's carried a mediocre team to the playoffs the last two years, he's dropped 81 points in a single game, and he made All-Defensive Team after All-Defensive Team. In all that, he's been passed over for the MVP award time and again. People always had complaints: He shared credit with Shaq, his team wasn't good enough, he wasn't a good teammate, he looked for his own scoring too much. Well, no such complaints this year. Surrounded by a core of talented young players. Kobe has moved past his off-season discontent and been the leader the Lakers need. His guiding of an injury-plagued team to the #1 seed has been nothing short of amazing. Consider the Lakers' two main trade acquisitions this year. Paul Gasol has played effectively 26 of the 37 games since he came over, and Trevor Ariza has played a mere 24 of the 70 games since he arrived. Add to that the fact that centers Andrew Bynum and Chris Mihm have spent the majority of the year on the DL, and you see what a truly impressive feat it was for Kobe to take this team to the top of the Western Conference. He's become the player we kept saying he should be, and his team sits on top of the toughest conference of all time. Kobe Bryant has to be the MVP.

Kevin Garnett
Relevant Statistics
53.9% eFG
80.1% FT
16.8 RB%
19.9  AST%
110.8 TO%
25.5 Usage%
118 ORtg

Two numbers ultimately describe Kevin Garnett's impact this season. 66 and 24. That's the Celtics' win total from this year and their win total last year. Lest this 42 game swing doesn't impress you, remember back to the beginning of the season, back before the Celtics started demolishing everyone in their way, back when no one was sure how this would work. 3 superstars with 0 championship rings between them, not much of a bench and a reliance on young, unproven guys to fill the other spots on the court. We knew they'd be pretty good, we certainly knew they'd be better than last year, but no one was ready for this. 66-16, the best record in the league wire-to-wire, a huge +10.26 point differential (3.5 points higher than second-place Utah), and the best defense in the league by a long shot. More than anyone else, Garnett's impact goes beyond statistics (and that's saying something, since his are quite impressive). His arrival brought about a culture shift in Boston. His intensity has ratcheted up the defensive play of every other member of the team. His deft passing in the post and willingness to give them the ball has instilled confidence in guys like Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Leon Powe. His presence has drawn in free agents like James Posey, P.J. Brown and Sam Cassell to give the Celtics veteran depth. As far as overall impact on a franchise, it's hard to argue anyone has done more than Garnett. He's the best defender in the game, he turned his team around, and he rejuvenated basketball in Boston. Kevin Garnett has to be the MVP

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There are legitimate cases to be made for all four candidates.  However, we've got to pick one, so who's it going to be?

LeBron might be the best basketball player on the planet, but his team hasn't been impressive this year. Despite their overall record, the Cavs actually have a negative point differential. Basically, they're lucky to have even broken .500, much less be a 45 win team. How much fault does LeBron take for that? I'm not inclined to criticize him much, since he's been surrounded by a truly sucktastic supporting cast this season. However, he certainly doesn't have the defensive impact that Kobe or Garnett have, and I'm not sure Chris Paul hasn't actually had the better offensive season.

Paul has certainly put up impressive numbers and led his team to be a lot better than they were supposed to be. However, he's also got some pretty solid teammates around him. Peja's shooting stroke and David West's solid all-around game (by the way, even though people keep saying it, he's still underrated) really complement his skills and give the Hornets a strong team. Unlike last year, and unlike the Lakers this year, Paul's Hornets have stayed healthy and haven't had to deal with much adversity during the season. Also, of all these 4, Paul is probably the weakest defensively.

Kobe's overall production and statistical impact just don't measure up to LeBron and Paul. Those two are having, quite simply, transcendent seasons. His season certainly doesn't jump off the page like the others do. Also, the MVP award isn't a career achievement award, it's an individual regular season award. Frankly, Kobe has had better seasons, and just because he didn't win it then doesn't mean that he should win it now. Sure, he has done a great job leading the Lakers, but does it even remotely compare to the job that Garnett has done in Boston?

Garnett might be the main force behind Boston's turnaround, but it's not like he did it alone. Having teammates like Paul Pierce and Ray Allen certainly helps. Garnett also isn't the guy who is going to take the tough shot at the end of a game, he's never relished that role. Can you be the MVP if your team goes to other guys in the clutch, especially when compared to these other three guys?

The Pick

I've swung back and forth on this in the last few weeks more times than I care to count. As I said above, I hadn't decided who this pick would be even as I wrote the post. After poring over everything, I realized that my MVP vote has to go to Kevin Garnett. Here's the thing, all week I've kind of dismissed KG's candidacy. I thought he was the weakest of the four, not  on the same level as Kobe, Paul and LeBron. However, as I looked over all that he's done this year and the numbers that he has put up, it becomes harder and harder to find any reason not to pick him. I'm not concerned with the fact that he isn't their go-to clutch scorer, I'm much more concerned with what happens in the first 45 minutes of the game than what happens in the last 3. I remember back to the criticism of the Ray Allen trade and how that only really turned into a good thing once KG was on board. I thought back to how uncertain I was of the Celtics at the beginning of the season. I thought about how Garnett transformed a team with no other guys who you could call reliable top-tier defenders and transformed them into one of the best (if not the best) defensive teams of the past ten years. His defensive presence, the way he has completely altered the team's atmosphere and the incredible turnaround from worst to first all point to one thing.

Kevin Garnett is the MVP

So, I'm sitting here watching the GS-DAL game and figured I'd do a bit of blogging on it (unless it gets out of hand and I end up switching to The Daily Show) and other assorted NBA stuff.

So, it's a few minutes left in the second quarter right now, 54-41 Dallas with Baron on the line. Inexplicably, the Warriors have seemed to come out with no energy at all. In a game that will be huge in deciding who gets in down the stretch, they're giving up a ton of easy buckets and not getting back in transition at all. Now, they've never been defensive stalwarts, but the complete lack of hustle to get back on D is alarming.

Jason Kidd has double digit assists already and Baron Davis has 18 or 20 points.

Monte Ellis is showing off his ability to score efficiently. He's a superb finisher down low and has really made huge strides with his mid-range jumper. Unlike a lot of young players, he knows his limitations and works within the confines of what he can do, and it makes him really effective. When he adds three point range look out, he's gonna be scary.

The commentators have hit on this a few time, but Dirk is not himself tonight. He's missed a lot of elbow jumpers and even got one of his fadeaways blocked (which never happens, it's as unblockable a shot as there is in the NBA today). I wouldn't be surprised if he's still being affected by this injury

I've been playing a lot of ball lately and rounding back into basketball shape after not having played consistently for a while. One of the things I've been reminded of is that it takes some time to get your timing back, and that particularly affects post players since both rebounding and shot-blocking are heavily dependent on timing. Those of you expecting Andrew Bynum to come back and immediately make an impact, keep that in mind.

50-60 at the half. It's pretty incredible that GS is playing so poorly and allowing Dallas so many open opportunities, yet they're only down 10. As has been the case many times this year, their guards are carrying them so far (15 and 18 for Baron and Monte, both on 7-12 shooting).

For Dallas, Kidd has 11 and 6, only it's 11 assists and 6 rebounds. Only 2 points, but he's dominating in other ways tonight. Josh Howard is showing off his pretty pull-up jumper and has dropped a few pretty dimes as well. He's got 18.

Toronto got robbed tonight when the officials waved off a beautiful lob play that got them a great look with only .5 seconds on the clock.

The hustle hasn't gotten any better for the Warriors. They're getting killed on the glass and in transition. How do you not bring more energy in a game of this magnitude? 75-59

5:40 left and it's a 15 point game. Golden State has to start making their move now if they want to have a chance here.

the Hornets panned Miami tonight to retain the top spot in the West. I'm not going to make a decision until the end of the season, but Chris Paul is making an incredible case for MVP this year.

BTW, any team who loses to the Heat for the rest of the year should be  completely embarrassed. Their starting lineup tonight? Chris Quinn, Daequan Cook, Ricky Davis, Earl Barron and Mark Blount. No, I'm not kidding. On the plus side, Sports Nerd favorite Stephane Lasme got some burn and had 4 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal and 4 fouls in only 18 minutes.

This game might as well be over. Dallas is up by 18 with 2 minutes left in the 3rd, and the Warriors look completely dead. Looks like the Mavs are finally going to pick up their first win against a post-.500 team in the J-Kidd era.

Now, here's a question for Josh Howard. You've gotten any shot you wanted all game, the Warriors haven't been able to guard you at all. You've got plenty of shot clock left. Why do you settle for a step-back fadeaway jumper from 19 feet? It amazes me sometime when guys almost go out of their way to take a tougher shot.

I'm switching over to The Colbert Report for the 4th quarter, I think you can put this one in the books.

Ah, March Madness. There is no doubt in my mind that the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is the greatest sporting event in the world. The excitement, the competitive games, the dramatic upsets, everything comes together to make it an amazing spectacle. This has been as depressing a college basketball season as I have ever followed (due to the colossal ineptitude of my beloved Wolfpack), and yet the tournament still sucks me in.

Anyway, here are some of my thoughts on guys that I've been watching in the tourney this year.

O.J. Mayo - A lot of people have been down on Mayo all year, mainly because of the incredible hype he came in with. We've known about him since the 8th grade and he was touted nearly as much as LeBron. However, he didn't have great performances early in the year and people kind of soured on him. Here's the thing though, even if he isn't a one-of-a-kind player, he's still pretty darn good. I think his offensive game is reminiscent of Gilbert Arenas only he's a bit bigger, and he seems to have solid defensive instincts. I think he's moved from being overrated to being underrated during the season.

Kevin Love - It astounds me that people still consider this guy a borderline lottery pick. Seriously? You'd rather have DeAndre Jordan (he of the 5-minute first round appearance)? I watched Love play tonight and he made a play where he grabbed the ball after a made shot, ran down the baseline out of bounds and lofted a pass downcourt that landed right in his teammate's hands after staying just out of the defender's reach. Seriously, he's the best passing big man we've seen come out of college for some time. In addition, he plays with great positioning, is ridiculously strong, has great touch around the basket, and to top it off he has three point range! This guy isn't a top ten pick? Someone please tell me how his ceiling isn't a rich man's Brad Miller.

D.J. White - I didn't really watch him during Indiana's one tournament game, I'm just warning you that, come draft time, I'm going to be harping on how this guy should go much higher than he will. He's really, really good.

Stephen Curry - I can't really put into words how much I enjoy watching this guy play, but I'll try. I've been a huge Curry fan all season, after seeing him do a number on UNC and seeing him in person at the RBC Center near the beginning of the season. If you hadn't caught on by the fact that he's averaging 33.3 in three career tourney games, he's really, really good. I just read a column by Bill Simmons today where he talked about Curry, and he compared Curry to Brandon Roy, which is something that I had thought to myself while watching him. He isn't extraordinarily quick, but he's so shifty in the way he switches speeds that he can get to the rim against most anyone, and he's a creative below-the-rim finisher when he gets there. Oh yeah, and then there's that shot of his. He's not just a spot-up shooter or a catch-and-shoot guy, but he can legitimately get an NBA three off from anywhere under any conditions. He's extremely intelligent using screens to get himself open, and he's also extremely good at freeing himself up for his jumper off the dribble. Of course, it helps that he has one of the quickest releases I've ever seen on his jumper, and he has a high release point. Needless to say, I don't really care that Curry is only 6'3. He's ridiculously talented, and he'll be picked way lower than he should be if he comes out this year.

Earl Clark - I hadn't watched Louisville much this season, but I came away from the game tonight enormously impressed by Clark. He's a 6'9 wing guy who is a tremendous athlete. He comes off the bench for the Cardinals, but he has all the tools to be a really versatile swing forward at the next level. If he sticks around, I'll definitely be keeping my eye on him next year.

In addition to all the NCAA action, I also caught the McDonalds All-American game last night. I hadn't been keeping particularly close tabs on this particular crop of recruits but some of them really jumped out at me. Here are some of the guys you should be keeping an eye out for in college next year.

Brandon Jennings - As I mentioned in my last post, his wicked-awesome flattop haircut has endeared him to me. Pretty early in the game though it became apparent that Jennings is simply a cut above everyone else with his ability to handle and pass the ball. He is extremely quick with the ball in his hands and made some truly spectacular passes look easy, including an off the backboard ally-oop that was actually the best way to deliver the pass due to a nearby defender. He also showed off solid range on his jumper and some surprising defensive intensity that you don't usually see in this type of all-star game.

Tyreke Evans - Despite all his scoring and his MVP award, I wasn't particularly impressed with Evans. Obviously, he can score with anyone, but he showed a complete disinclination to pass the ball at all, to an extent that it stood out even in this chuckfest. He's got great strength and finishing ability inside, and he has the body-type and ability to become a devastating scorer, but he isn't nearly there yet. He overdribbles and doesn't have a great jumper yet. A year or two in college will be a really good thing for him.

JRue Holiday - I was stunned when I saw that he is listed at 6'3/6'4. Watching the game, he's so long that he plays way bigger than that. I would've sworn that he was at least 6'7. He has terrific instincts and seems like a guy who will do the little things to help you win. His great length and ability to use either hand makes him a terrific finisher. He strikes me as a guy who will really impress next year at UCLA.

Willie Warren - In many ways, Warren was the opposite of Evans in this game. He alternated bombing away from deep behind the line and attacking the rim, but usually doing it very efficiently, with few dribbles. He has great quickness and the strength to finish through contact. He impressed me as much as anyone during the game, then I went out and found this clip of him on YouTube. Sick.

I'm back. After a rather long period of posting nothing, I've found enough free time to put together some observations on a fantastic NBA regular season that will be coming to a close shortly.

The Post-Shaq Suns (disclaimer: I wrote this before the Celtics game tonight)
The most surprising trade of the season drew negative criticism pretty much universally. Recently, with Phoenix's 7 game win streak, some analysts have changed their tune. I'm out to answer the question "What have the actual effects of the Shaq trade been?"

At first glance, Phoenix's offense has gotten better and their defense has gotten worse. Their offensive efficiency is 114.4 with Shaq, as opposed to 111.95 before the trade, a significant improvement. Conversely, their defensive efficiency has gone from 106 before the trade to 111.93 after it, which is a huge decline in performance. This supports what I would expect, that the loss of Shawn Marion and the addition of Shaq would hurt the team defensively, though I probably wouldn't have expected that kind of discrepancy. However, those numbers don't tell the entire story. Phoenix has played an extraordinarily difficult schedule since the trade, playing an amazing 13 teams with .500+ records out of the 17 total that they've played. The combined winning percentage of the teams they've played is 56.4%.

So, because I always go the extra mile for you guys, I took a look at the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings of each of Phoenix's opponents during the post-trade stretch and compared them to what they did against Phoenix during this stretch. If you don't really care about this, just skip the next two paragraphs and I'll sum it up at the end.

Defensively, things looked quite a bit better viewed this way. Phoenix's defense was about 1.2 points per hundred possessions (pp100 from now on) better than the league average before the trade, and they've allowed their opponents an average of 3.26 pp100 more than their average since the trade. That's a net difference of 4.46 pp100, which is 1.5 less than the 5.93 we found originally, so it's a pretty substantial difference. Phoenix's defense still got worse after the trade, but not as much as our stats originally showed.(If I went over your head with this, here's the nutshell version: I made an adjustment for the fact that the teams Phoenix played since the trade are above-average offensively).

On the other side of the ball, Phoenix's offense also looked better when adjusting for the competition. That's not surprising considering that 9 of their 17 games have come against the league's top nine defensive teams. Phoenix was 4.75 pp100 above league average before the trade. After the trade, they've averaged 8.07 pp100 more than their opponents typically allow. That's a net difference of 3.32 pp100 since the trade, which is about .7 higher than the 2.5 we found originally. (Basically the same note as before. I just adjusted for how good Phoenix's opponents have been defensively)

So, a rough estimate of the overall result of the Shaq trade is that Phoenix has gotten better offensively by 3.32 pp100 and worse defensively by 4.46 pp100.

What does this tell us? Well, the decline in Phoenix's defense was pretty predictable when they lost Shawn Marion. However, I think a lot of people would be surprised to know that their offense has improved almost as much as the defense has regressed. Not only that, but Phoenix's offense should continue to improve. Shaq's turnover rate has been unusually high since coming to Phoenix, and the team's turnovers are up. As Shaq figures out the system and the team continues to adjust to him, those turnovers should drop significantly.

Do I think Phoenix is a contender? Not really, their defense is just too poor. However, they've surprised me a bit by the way they're coming together. It wouldn't surprise me if they keep improving till the end of the year and make an intriguing case for playoff contention.

Deceptive Teams
One of the best predictors of playoff success is margin of victory, not actual winning percentage (surprised? It's true). Two teams in the East really stand out when looking at this factor. Cleveland's record is 40-31, but their margin of victory predicts a record of 35-36. Not a good sign for the Cavs. On the flip side, the Raptors have a record of 35-35 while their margin of victory predicts a record of 42-28. If the Raptors make a surprising playoff run, don't say I didn't warn you.

Dallas Despair
Honestly, I'm really sad that Dirk went down. It means that there's now a legitimate excuse for them choking away the end of the year, and my skepticism of the Kidd trade can't be validated. Oh well. I feel sorry for Dirk that he won't be able to vindicate himself for the last two playoff collapses. At any rate, it certainly clears up the Western playoff picture a bit. No way that a fading Dallas team holds on without Dirk in the lineup.

Other Notes

- I'm kind of sick of reading that LeBron's numbers are inflated by playing in the East and that Kobe's numbers would be higher playing in the East (this is very popular in many MVP posts I've seen). The truth is that for any two teams in the league, at least 56 games on the schedule will be identical. By the end of the year, the strength of schedule for most teams will be nearly identical (the difference between the winning percentages of the hardest schedule and easiest schedule right now is 3.2%). Six of the top twelve defensive teams reside in the East. It's a foolish argument that doesn't have any credibility behind it.

- This quote was very telling to me. It's a perfect example of Isiah's incompetence as well as an example of how classy a guy Deke is. Seriously, how can you not like Dikembe Mutumbo?
"After one season with New York in 2003-04, Mutombo was told by then-general manager and now head coach of the Knicks Isiah Thomas that the day had come, and that blunt message has driven him for the past four years. 'It's still a wound,' Mutombo said. 'My wife and I still talk about it. It's still a bit sad to see the commissioner coming and all those people coming to celebrate the 17 years of my career and accomplishments and you look back and say that about (four) years ago, I had a guy tell me that I couldn't play basketball no more, to go to the beach and onto vacation. That's the same guy who's losing his job tomorrow. ... I never said nothing (to Thomas),' Mutombo said. 'The last time we played at the Garden (Jan. 9), my wife asked me to go shake his hand, to just forgive him. I went and shook his hand and I told him, 'On behalf of my wife, I want to shake your hand and I forgive you for everything you've done to me.'" (From the Houston Chronicle via Truehoop)

 

- Look, I don't care what you think about Chris Webber, the man belongs in the Hall of Fame, and I heard a lot of speculation that he shouldn't get in on Sportscenter today. I think people are too quick to remember the hobbled C-Webb struggling through these last few seasons, and too quick to forget the constant 20-10-5 seasons he kept throwing up in Sacramento. He was All-NBA 5 straight times, he will go down in history as one of the greatest passing big men ever, and his Sacramento teams will be one of the best teams that no one remembers because they ran into the buzzsaw that was the Lakers dynasty. Health concerns robbed him of a few more good years, but Webber was one of the best power forwards of all time in his prime. He's a sure-fire Hall of Famer in my book.

- I was watching the McDonalds All-American Game tonight (I'll have more on this in a blog post soon, hopefully tomorrow) and the #1 recruit in the country, Brandon Jennings, was sporting a "Will Smith in the early seasons of Fresh Prince"-style flattop. Simply put, it was awesome. If he keeps his hair like that all next season, he would officially be my favorite college basketball player.