A week ago when I wrote my last post, I almost posted something about the Trail Blazer's 5-game winning streak, but I decided it was a bit premature and that they probably wouldn't keep it up. Silly me. Portland has added 3 very strong wins to that, and it's time to take a look at what the Blazers are doing.

You can basically dismiss the first three games of the streak because they came against pretty poor competition (man did I miss the mark with Memphis). However, the last 5 wins have been extremely impressive, coming against 4 Western Conference playoff teams (Utah twice), and playing without LaMarcus Aldridge. Perhaps even more impressive than the level of competition is the fact that 2 of the wins came on the road, where the young Blazers have really struggled. So, what is Portland doing so well that they've managed to win 5 quality games without Aldridge's 19 and 8 each night?

First of all, note that the Blazers haven't changed their mindset with Aldridge out. They've been one of the slowest teams in the league this year, with only Detroit playing less possessions per game than Portland. Through the streak, they haven't upped the tempo at all, and in fact have even slowed down a bit more, averaging a turtle-slow 90.6 possessions per game. Another important statistic is that they haven't been shooting much better than usual these last 5 games (roughly equivalent FG% and lower 3PT%), which actually bodes well for the future since it indicates that they aren't just on a hot streak. Lastly, the Blazers' assist, turnover, steal, and block totals are almost exactly on their season average during this streak, nothing that jumps out there.

So what are the Blazers doing? Well, for the season they're one of the league's poorer defensive teams, with their defensive rating of 104.4 coming in at 21st in the league. During this 5 game streak against 4 good offensive teams (New Orleans was the worst at 16th in the league offensively), Portland has posted a defensive efficiency of 100.6, an improvement of nearly 4 points per hundred possessions. That's a huge jump for a team to make. Where did the improvement come from? The biggest factor is the increase in minutes for Joel Przybilla in Aldridge's absence. Przybilla may be an offensive non-factor, but he's a terrific defender and rebounder, and Aldridge just isn't a defensive presence at this point in his career. The other significant factor is that less minutes are going to defensively-challenged Martell Webster, and more are going to solid defenders Travis Outlaw and James Jones.

So, the defense is better, but they've had a few offensive problems without Aldridge, right? Not exactly. Even more impressive than their defensive improvement is the Blazers' offensive execution without Aldridge. Their offensive efficiency for the season is 102.7, but during the streak it has been a blistering 111.5, a point and a half above Dallas' league-leading season average. They put up a 128 offensive rating AT DENVER (the second best defense in the league)!! What's going on here? They're shooting about the same percentage, they're turning the ball over the same amount, they're not getting more offensive rebounds. What the heck is making Portland so much better offensively? The answer is that they're going to the easiest place to get points, namely the free-throw line. the Blazers are playing aggressively, getting to the line nearly 6 more times per game during this stretch, and shooting 3 percentage points higher from the stripe. The two driving forces behind this change are Outlaw and Brandon Roy (who has been spectacular), who are both averaging around 6 FTAs per game in the last 5 games. The lesson? Practice your foul shots kids, they aren't fancy, but they win games.

While we are at it, I'd like to take a look at those two guys, who really have fueled this streak. The way Outlaw is playing this year, he'd be a front-runner for Sixth Man of the Year if this weren't The Year of the Reserve (Manu, Terry and Barbosa all playing so well). He's a terrific athlete and we've talked about his potential for years, but this year he has started to put together consistent performances. He's averaging 17-6 with a block and a steal in 30 minutes a game during December (including five 20-point games). Between he and James Jones (who is playing out of his mind right now) and the occasional strong game from Webster, the Blazers have a very strong SF rotation.

















Meanwhile, Roy has been playing out of his mind. It still boggles my mind how this guy slipped as far as he did in the draft (when he was obviously the best player in that draft class). His hesitation move in the lane is as good as anyone in the league. He'll beat his man and get into the lane, then slow up for half a second to let the big step towards him, then he goes right to the rim, often completely unchallenged because he got the post player so far out of position. It's really subtle, but between that and his ability to crossover in traffic, he's one of the league's best at maneuvering in the paint. His December has been ridiculous as he's putting up 22-5-7 with under 2 turnovers a game.

Looking forward at the schedule, Portland plays the next 5 games at home, where they've been fantastic (10-3), and only 2 of those are difficult opponents (Toronto and Denver). With a little luck, it's entirely possible that the Blazers could be 18-12 and riding a 13 game winning streak as they start their road trip in Utah at the end of December. This seems like a good time to mention that the odds of a sub-.500 team having a 10-game winning streak are 3%. Now, that's not to say that the Blazers are world-beaters, but I think we can say with some reasonable certainty that this is a solid team. At worst, they're an absolute menace at home, and you certainly don't look at a game against them and say "that one's a gimme".

As one final note, I'm feeling renewed confidence in saying that Portland will bring home a championship within the next five years. They have a solid team built of basically all young players this year, and they have even more talent waiting in the wings. Remember, in addition to Oden they own the rights to Rudy Fernandez, Joel Freeland, and Petteri Koponen, who are playing overseas (I've read scouts say that all 3 of those guys have lottery-level talent and potential, but they all fell to late-first round because they would have to wait in Europe to develop). This team has more young talent than any two other teams in the league combined. It's a good time to be a Blazers fan.