Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Utah Jazz

Coach: Jerry Sloan
2006-2007 Record: 51-31
06-07 Expected Record: 48-34
Offensive Rating: 109.8 (3rd in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 107.3 (18th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 50.2% (11th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 91.6 (15th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

The improvement of Williams was one of the big reasons for Utah's successful season. After a fairly poor rookie season, He blew up last year, taking less jumpshots and driving to the rim more, leading to higher shooting percentages and more trips to the free throw line. Most noticeably, he seemed to adjust to the speed of the game, and his assist ratio went through the roof. He still needs to improve his defense, but he's one of league's most promising young guards.

I'll be honest, I underrated Boozer. He's a phenomenal post scorer and a really underrated rebounder. He's got a great fallaway jumper that absolutely killed Houston in the playoffs last year cause he kept arcing in rainbow shots over Yao. He's not ever going to be a dominant defender because he's just not a shotblocker, but he makes a huge impact on the boards. 

Okur is very much your prototypical European big man. He's an excellent shooter who has great range, and he's a very skilled offensive player. On the flip side, he's not a particularly strong rebounder or defensive force.

I've always liked Matt Harpring. He's a gritty player who does an excellent job of rebounding from the SF spot, and he's a good shooter. He's very much a Jerry Sloan type of player, but he's entering his 10th season and has an injured knee going into the season, so we'll probably be seeing a drop in his minutes and his production.

Paul Millsap is a perfect example of a guy who goes way later in the draft than he should have because he's a bit undersized. The guy is an absolute monster on the glass, especially on the offensive end where he gets almost half his rebounds. He needs to improve on taking care of the ball and avoiding fouls (he averaged 6.4 PF per 40 minutes), but those are common problems for young posts. He's a great backup PF.

The situation at SG will be key for Utah. Giricek is not a very good starter; he's a really, really bad defender and doesn't do much on offense beside shoot spot-up jumpers. Brewer is the big hope for Utah. He's a very athletic guard/forward who can bring a dynamic, slashing element that the Jazz have lacked for the last few years. He's on everybody's short list for Most Improved Player, but if he wants to really help the Jazz improve he's going to have to improve as a spot-up shooter. The classic Jerry Sloan pick and roll system requires having good shooters ready for kickouts, and if Brewer can shoot a decent percentage from outside he'll have a great shot at that MIP award. One guy who won't have a problem shooting is Morris Almond, who was drafted because of his pure shooting stroke. He's a very smart player who has a great midrange game in addition to his long-range shot. He's not nearly the defender or dynamic offensive presence that Brewer is, but he's a great shooter who could benefit from the Jazz's system.

People have gotten really excited about Kyrylo Fesenko because he looked great in the summer league. He's a project, he won't be a factor for at least a year or two, and even then he's far from a sure thing. Summer league means nothing, I have to keep reminding people of this.

X-Factor: Andrei Kirilenko - First of all, AK-47 is the best nickname in basketball, I will hear no argument for this. Make no mistake, Kirilenko is a VERY talented player. He's the rare player who can make a defensive impact all over the floor (right now, only AK, the Matrix, Josh Smith, and Gerald Wallace really do this). He was terribly frustrated last year with the role he was asked to play in the offense, but the Jazz have to find a way to keep him happy, because he's the difference between them being a very good team and an elite team. They don't have any interior players who are going to scare you as a shotblocking presence, but when Kirilenko is at his best, he can be that kind of player. The Jazz are going to be a good offensive team, but their improvement as a defensive team will be contingent on how Jerry Sloan handles Kirilenko's unique talents.

Overview

The Jazz are an excellent offensive team, if slightly unconventional. Most of their offensive effectiveness comes from the fact that they're the league's best offensive rebounding team and they get to the line a lot. A lot of that comes from Millsap and Boozer, but Harpring and Kirilenko are also big factors on the class from the small forward position. Defensively, their big problem was foul trouble. No team in the league sent their opponents to the line as frequently as Utah did, and that really hurt what would otherwise have been a fairly decent defensive team. The glaring hole in the Jazz defense is that they don't have a true shotblocker on the roster outside of Kirilenko, who had the worst year of his career last year. They're very vulnerable to elite post players who can make them pay on the low block (despite winning the series, they weren't very effective at guarding Yao, and Duncan went to town on them for most of that series). Overall though, it was a breakthrough year for the Jazz, who got a healthy season from Boozer and a breakout year from Williams.

Prediction

The Jazz are very good, and they should be even better if Brewer can step into the starting lineup and be a factor offensively (he'll be much better defensively than Giricek). However, the problem is that this team has the same essential weakness as last year's team, they're vulnerable in the post. In a conference that includes Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, and Amare Stoudemire on 3 of the top teams in the league, you just can't get by with bad post defense unless you're an outstanding offensive team. Phoenix has struggled with the same problem for the last few years, and they're a much better offensive team than the Jazz are. The Jazz will again have a solid regular season, and it isn't out of the realm of possibility for them to improve enough to contend for the title, especially if Kirilenko is given more liberty to roam on defense, but ultimately I still don't think they're there yet.

6th in the West - Championship Contenders