Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

San Antonio Spurs

Coach: Gregg Popovich
2006-2007 Record: 58-24
06-07 Expected Record: 60-22
Offensive Rating: 109.3 (5th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 99.8 (2nd in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 52.1% (2nd in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 89.8 (27th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Tim Duncan remains the one player I would want above all if I had to win a championship this year. The truly elite post players who dominate both ends can be counted on one hand, and Ducan is the best of them all. He's one of the 10 greatest players of all time, and he shows no signs of slowing down. There's not a more consistently excellent defensive player on the planet, and though he isn't a prolific scorer, he still scares the crap out of you in the playoffs because he can drop 30-20 on you without breaking a sweat.

I hate to make a judgment on just the playoffs, but it looks for all the world like Tony Parker made The Jump in the Finals last year. He eviscerated a really good Cavs team (4th best defensive team in the league, and they were particularly good against PGs), just getting to the rim at will and showcasing an solid jumpshot. Overall last year he had easily his best year, and he' keeps getting better.

I wonder if Ginobili will end up getting the bulk of the starts at shooting guard, or if he'll end up coming off the bench for the most part. The rotation of Manu, Finley, and Barry at the 2 is as good as any in the league. Manu brings an up-tempo, gunslinger style that the team sorely needs. Barry is one of the game's best spot-up shooters and he's got excellent court vision.

Horry continues to be an excellent sub in limited minutes, and while he doesn't do a whole lot during the regular season, his defensive presence and shooting range are invaluable in the playoffs.

Bonner and Udoka are kind of being groomed up as successors to Horry and Bowen. I'd expect them to get a decent chunk of minutes this year to keep the old guys fresh for the playoffs.

X-Factor: Oberto and Elson - Oberto is the more polished interior player. Elson is the more athletic, dynamic defender. If only San Antonio could combine them into one supercenter. The Spurs would love for Elson to continue to develop as a defensive presence and finisher to complement Duncan, though they'll probably continue to platoon equally like they did last year. The contributions of Elson and Oberto were a big reason why the Spurs were so good last year, since San Antonio had just been getting by with Rasho Nesterovic (who basically defines the term "big stiff") ever since The Admiral retired. With a full year of playing time in the Spurs' system for both of them, I'd expect the two-headed monster at center to see improved production.

It's really amazing the way the Spurs keep their roster together. They've got the best front office in sports. They return an amazing 98% of their minutes played from last year.

Overview

Contrary to popular belief, the Spurs were actually the best team in the regular season last year. They had the best margin of victory and were one of the most consistent teams in the league. They came into the playoffs without as much hype as Dallas and Phoenix, but they executed like they usually do and came away with another title. Sure, they caught a break against Phoenix, but they won all the other series convincingly, including their absolute decimation of the Cavs. They were a great defensive team, and a better offensive team than people usually give them credit for. They don't get many offensive rebounds, but they shoot a very high percentage and they take great care of the ball, which makes them a very effective offensive team. They also had maybe the best bench in the entire league. Ginobili (at times), Barry, Horry, Elson, and Vaughn are all very good backups who can provide different looks for the team. There aren't many teams out there with more balance than the Spurs had last year.

Prediction

I'm convinced that the Spurs have to be the prohibitive favorites to win this season. After they won last year, there were a slew of stories about how the Spurs can't be considered a dynasty because they haven't won back-to-back championships yet. We also got a bunch of stories about how good and underappreciated Duncan is. I think this year the Spurs will be playing to prove their place in history, and that TD will take down another MVP award as they run towards the title. They kept their entire core and added a strong backup SF in Udoka. Nobody has more balance, experience, and chemistry than the Spurs, and the presence of Duncan still puts them on a different level than everyone else.

1st in the West - Frontrunner