Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Sacramento Kings

Coach: Reggie Theus
2006-2007 Record: 33-49
06-07 Expected Record: 36-46
Offensive Rating: 106.1 (15th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 108.1 (22nd in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 49.1% (19th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 94.8 (4th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Mike Bibby had his worst season as a King last year. He took a lot more three-pointers than he ever has in his career, and his shooting percentages dropped off drastically. Now, there's a chance that he just had an off-year, but it might be that he's lost a step as he approaches 30 and wasn't getting by people as easily. Bibby has a good jumpshot, and I think he'd be a great addition to a team like Cleveland who desperately needs a guy who can hit open jumpers, but I don't think he's a viable option as a playmaker anymore.

Kevin Martin almost reminds me of a young Reggie Miller. He's a great shooter (though he does have kind of a funny release), he's got that stringy build, and he's one of the best players in the league at getting himself easy shots off of runouts, screens, and backcuts. A lot of times he's simply labeled as a jump shooter, but he does a great job at getting himself easy shots and getting to the line. He's the kind of guy I'd love to have on my team, the kind of guy who can score 30 points in the flow of the offense and you don't realize it until you see the box score.

Artest is an excellent defensive player, but an overrated offensive player. For a guy who spends a lot of time operating in the post, he shoots a fairly low percentage. He's a very good defensive player and an average offensive player, but you also have to deal with all his personal problems. You really never know what's going to happen with Artest, he can be going along saying all the right things, and then suddenly he does something to get himself suspended for 10 games. His maniac intensity is a big part of what makes him effective as a player, but it gets him in trouble every year to varying degrees.

Shareef has been slowly dropping off for a while, but he really fell off the face of the earth last year. He carried a lot lighter load last year and was terribly inefficient.

Miller is another player who really fell off last year. He's never been a very good defender and he doesn't rebound particularly well, but he always made up for it by being a good shooter and passer out of the high post. Last year, he didn't shoot well at all and he played a lot less minutes than he has in the past.

I'm not buying stock in Mikki Moore. He had a career season in a contract year while playing with Jason Kidd. It's like the perfect storm of circumstances for fluke production.

I don't know how much I buy into Garcia and Douby being the future for the Kings. I think Kings fans are expecting a lot from two guys who were drafted 19th and 23rd and haven't done much particularly noteworthy in the league yet. Both can develop to be solid bench contributors, but I don't see them being starters on a playoff team.

I like Hawes, though I don't think he was the right pick for them. He's very much like a young Brad Miller, but he's a better low post scorer. He's not a great rebounder, but he was the most polished post scorer in the draft. Whenever he comes back from knee surgery, expect him to take a lot of Miller's minutes.

Overview

The Kings brought back basically the same team last year that went to the playoffs the year before, but they felt the very pronounced effects of an aging core of players. Outside of Kevin Martin, all of their main contributors suffered huge dropoffs in productivity. The result of this was a mediocre offensive team and a really bad defensive team. Various trade rumors swirled around Bibby and Artest during the season and then again this offseason, but neither player was moved. Really, besides the continued improvement of Martin, there weren't a lot of positives last year for Kings fans.

Prediction

Things do not look good for the Kings. Their core of players is not aging gracefully, and while it's possible that one of those guys just had a fluke down season, for most of them it's just that they've lost a step and aren't going to be as effective. The problem for the Kings is that Bibby has two more years on his big deal, and Thomas, Miller, and Shareef all have 3 years left. Those big contracts are going to really handcuff this team's ability to build towards the future unless they can dump them, and that's going to be hard to do. Martin is a great young player, but other than that there isn't a whole lot to get excited about. Hawes might be an all-star down the road, but he's not going to be a superstar. Garcia and Douby are mediocre at best. If I'm in the Kings front office, I'm trying desperately to dump Bibby and Artest while they still have value and see if I can't pick up some young talent, cap relief and draft picks, and at the same time put myself on a fast track to the top of the lottery. Sorry Kings fans, but the next few years might be a bit rough.

13th in the West - The Hopeless Ones