Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

New Orleans Hornets

Coach: Byron Scott
2006-2007 Record: 39-43
06-07 Expected Record: 36.5-45.5
Offensive Rating: 104.7 (23rd in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 106.7 (15th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 47.9% (27th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 90.2 (23rd in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

This just in, Chris Paul is all kinds of good. I say this despite the fact that I hate him for once punching N.C. State star Julius Hodge in the groin. He's lightning quick, keeps the ball on a string, has a great passing eye, and finishes as well as any point in the game not named Tony Parker.

I think a lot of people underrate David West. He's not a great rebounder, but he's a very versatile offensive player.

You think the Bulls might be regretting that Tyson Chandler trade? Of players who played at least 20 minutes a game, he had the highest highest rebound rate in the league, and he led the league in offensive rebounds. In addition to being maybe the league's best rebounder, Chandler is a very effective shotblocker. He's not gonna be a go-to guy in the post, but he's only 25 and still learning, and he's the kind of defensive and rebounding presence that you can win a lot of games with.

If Peja is healthy, he gives this team a 3rd really legit scoring presence, as well as a guy who you absolutely can't double off of. Now, while Peja has always been a bit fragile, he's never missed a whole season like he did last year. I think he plays at least 60 games this year for the Hornets, and that's a huge boost to their offense.

Mo Pete had a strange season last year. Despite taking on a lesser load than in any of his previous years, he shot worse percentages (especially from the line) and was less efficient offensively. Peterson will take on a bigger role this season, and I'd expect he returns to his previous level of being a solid role player.

The bench on this team is, to put it lightly, not so good. When Bobby Jackson and Jannero Pargo are the main guys coming off the pine, you might be in a bit of trouble.

I really like Julian Wright. He's a huge talent, and when he was on last year, he was unstoppable. He doesn't have a good jumpshot yet, but he's got just about everything else. He's a really long player who can either play as a big 3 or a quick 4, and he's a very good passer and defender. When he's at his best, he's really a nightmare to match up against. Think a combination of Boris Diaw and AK-47.

X-Factor: Hilton Armstrong - I know it's a lot to expect much of a second-year guy who didn't do much of anything his first year, but I think Armstrong is going to be a solid contributor this year. He's a lengthy, athletic post who can rebound and block shots. He's gotten a lot of minutes in the preseason so far, and he's done a pretty good job with it. The Hornets' big weakness is their bench, and especially their backup post players. If they can get about 20 solid minutes a night from Armstrong, their bench improves quite a bit.

Overview

Few teams got as devastated by injury last year as the Hornets did. Paul missed 18 games, West missed 30 games, Chandler missed 9 games, Jackson missed 26 games, and Peja missed almost the entire season. That's 152 games missed by 5 of their top 6 players. The fact that the Hornets actually managed to win 39 games is absolutely amazing If they'd had a healthy Paul all season, you have to think they would've had a great shot at the playoffs. They were an excellent rebounding team, but they took way too many long range shots, resulting in a low shooting percentage and very few trips to the free throw line. Defensively, they were actually a fairly good team, but they didn't force many turnovers at all (29th in the league), so despite not sending teams to the line and rebounding extremely well, they were an average defensive team.

Prediction

I think too many people are sleeping on this team. If they can stay even relatively healthy they have a great shot at the playoffs. Their bench is thin, but they've got a well-balanced starting lineup, and Paul is a real game changer. They were 3 games out of the playoffs last year, and you've got to think that they would've made it without the terrible injury problems. The teams around them haven't significantly improved, and the Clippers have dropped out completely. With improvement from all their young players and recovery from injury, the Hornets have a great shot at the postseason.

8th in the West - Other Playoff Potentials