Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Los Angeles Lakers

Coach: Phil Jackson
2006-2007 Record: 42-40
06-07 Expected Record: 40.5-41.5
Offensive Rating: 108.2 (7th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 109.0 (25th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 51.1% (4th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 93.5 (8th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Not much that needs to be said about Kobe. He's the best offensive player on the planet, period. There's no arguing that. We saw this summer that he's a pretty darn good defender too when he wants to be.

I've been having a debate with a fellow blogger the last few days about the value of Odom, and I remain convinced that he has squandered his huge talent and is merely a mediocre player. There is absolutely no denying Odom's talent, but he's had 8 seasons to prove to us that he can be a real difference maker, and he hasn't ever done it. Could he break out next year as a Pippen to Kobe's Jordan? Absolutely he could, the talent is there. Am I going to bank on that happening? Not a chance, cause Odom has tantalized us for years with his skills, and hasn't ever lived up to expectations.

I like Luke Walton a lot. He's a terrible defender, but he's perfect for the triangle, and he's one of those guys that you know is going to play hard every night, even after signing his big contract. He's got a better passing eye than most of the league's point guards, and he's a good shooter. Good move by the front office to keep him in town.

Stop waiting for Kwame to arrive, it isn't gonna happen. He's a below-average rebounder, he turns the ball over at an amazing rate, he shoots 44% from the line, and he's not a great defender.

You gotta love Ronny Turiaf's energy, but they might need to tone him down a bit. He averaged an almost comical 7.4 fouls per 40 minutes.

Of course, the big question with the Lakers this year is the point guard position. Derek Fisher is a decent backup, but you don't want him being your starter. Javaris Crittenton is at least a year away from being ready. He's an athlete with great skills, but he's turnover prone and doesn't know how to run a team yet. Jordan Farmar is the guy who is expected to take over the starting spot, but that's expecting a lot from a second-year guy who was a late first round pick and, despite some good moments, was on the whole very bad last year. One other option is Sasha Vujacic, who is another bad defender and not a great passer, but is a tall player and a good shooter, the trademark of the triangle point guard. With passers like Odom and Walton on the wings, Vujacic might be a good option at the point.

X-Factor: Andrew Bynum - Bynum is very talented, but don't get too excited about him this year. He's only a 20-year-old in his 3rd year out of high school, and his play actually got worse in the second half of last year after a very good first half. He's an effective scorer in the post with long arms and good touch, but he's very right-hand dependent right now and has had some work ethic and conditioning problems. Defensively, Bynum is a good shot blocker, but he's also very foul prone. Despite playing only 21.9 MPG, Bynum led the team in personal fouls. These are all common problems for young players, and Bynum may one day be an all-star center, but don't expect it to be next year. If he improves his conditioning and becomes a little more disciplined on defense, he could make a real difference to LA's porous D.

Overview

The Lakers' season and their offseason was defined as much by what they didn't do as it was by what they did. They drew criticism for not making a move for Jason Kidd or Mike Bibby at the trade deadline, and plenty of people, Kobe being first among them, were upset by their lack of moves this summer. LA's front office stood pat and refused to trade Andrew Bynum for anyone, despite numerous scenarios that would've brought in all-star players. Bynum's development will ultimately either vilify or vindicate them, but it's hard to justify keeping developing youth over veteran stars during Kobe's prime. As for the Lakers' play last year, they were really good at one thing, and pretty bad at everything else. Luckily for them the thing they were good at was shooting a high percentage (4th in the league in eFG%), which is the strongest indicator of team success. That shooting percentage was good enough to make them the 7th best offensive team in the league. Unfortunately for them, they were pretty bad at everything else. On the offensive end, they were 15th in turnovers, 20th in offensive rebounds, and 13th in free throws. On the defensive end, they were flat-out awful. They were 17th in opponents' eFG%, 24th in turnovers forced, 18th in defensive rebounding, and 20th in free throws given up, all adding up to the 6th worst defensive team in the league.

Prediction

The only real difference from last year is replacing Smush Parker with Derek Fisher, which is a slight upgrade, but not anything special. The hope in LA is that the development of Bynum, Farmar, and Turiaf will help them improve on last year. Since the likelihood of Farmar and Turiaf making a huge jump in their contributions is pretty small, most of the weight falls on Bynum's shoulders. If he can improve his defense and conditioning, the Lakers should improve their defense and be a solid playoff team. If he plays more like the second half of last year than the first, than they will be in danger of missing the postseason. You'll note that I didn't mention Kobe a whole lot in this post, and that's because Kobe's a known entity. You know you're getting 30 wins a year out of Kobe, he's a perennial MVP candidate and maybe the greatest player in the world. The question with the Lakers is how the other guys are going to step up. As far as I'm concerned, the Lakers are one of the teams on the edge of the playoffs, but they're not a legitimate championship contender. They may get in the playoffs, they may even win a series on the back of a transcendent performance by Kobe, but no way do they win 3 series in a row in the West, not gonna happen.

9th in the West - Other Playoff Potentials