Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Houston Rockets

Coach: Rick Adelman
2006-2007 Record: 52-30
06-07 Expected Record: 52-30
Offensive Rating: 106.6 (14th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 100.0 (3rd in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 49.9% (15th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 90.7 (21st in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

There's no doubt that when Yao is healthy, he's the best center in the league. The problem is that he has missed 59 games over the last two seasons. You have to wonder if Yao has just been really unlucky, or if his size makes him especially injury-prone. The answer to that question could determine the fate of the Rockets' season. When he's on the floor, Yao is an elite post scorer, an excellent defender, and one of the few centers who shoots well from the line. Not only that, but he has improved every year of his career and worked with Hakeem Olajuwon this offseason. If he stays healthy, Yao is primed for an MVP-caliber season.

T-Mac really carried this team last year and took on a bigger load than he ever has in his career. Taking on that much of a load, he was a much less efficient scorer last year than he has been over the course of his career, though he had a much higher assist rate than he has ever had. The problem with T-Mac's constant back trouble isn't so much that he's missing games (though he did in 05-06), but that he gets worn down over the course of the season, and he becomes a less effective player because he stops driving and shoots from the perimeter too much. You could really tell he was banged up last year in the playoffs when he had a terrible series (even more striking because T-Mac has always raised his game in the playoffs). If the Rockets want to have success in the playoffs, they need to play well enough that T-Mac can take on a smaller load (~30 MPG) and rest up to be fresh for the postseason.

One thing that I think is often missed about the Rockets is that they have one of the best collections of role players in the league. Everybody knows what Shane Battier does, he's cultivated a reputation as a great spot-up shooter/help defender. However, the performances of Chuck Hayes, Luther Head and Dikembe Mutumbo are often overlooked. Hayes is an excellent rebounder and defender despite his small size. He was a big part of the Rockets' ability to force bad shots (they led the league in opponents' eFG%, despite not actually blocking a ton of shots), and he's a very strong offensive rebounder. Now, you don't really want Hayes as a starter, and the platoon of he and Juwan Howard was pretty awful (Howard was, to put it lightly, terrible). However, backing up, Luis Scola, Hayes makes a great energy guy off the bench. Head played surprisingly well in 27 MPG as a designated shooter. He'll probably take on a reduced role this year, but the minutes he played last year should help him as a contributor off the bench. I don't think a lot of people realize just how amazing Dikembe Mutumbo's season was. Nobody in basketball gave as productive a 17 minutes per game as Mutumbo did. His astounding rebound rate was second in the league, and he blocked more shots per 40 minutes than Yao did. He really saved their season when Yao went down, and you couldn't ask for a better backup center.

Luis Scola is every bit as good as he's touted to be, believe me. He has great vision for a post player, he plays hard, he can hit the mid-range jumper, and he's very skilled in the post. I think he'll thrive as a third option in Rick Adelman's up-tempo offense.

The big question mark is at point guard, where Mike James and Steve Francis will battle for the starting job. You know what you're getting with James; he's a good shooter and not a real good distributer, but at least a decent improvement over the three-point slinging Rafer Alston. Francis is a bit more interesting scenario. Now, we know Francis can play, he's not that many years removed from being one of the league's top point guards, and at 30 he's not too old to call him washed up. After being caught in the hell that was New York's backcourt mess of Starbury, Crawford and Nate Robinson, you have to wonder if Francis can be rejuvenated by coming back to Houston and not having to be "the man". If Francis comes even close to the player he used to be, the Rockets get that much scarier, and if not, it didn't cost them a whole lot to roll the dice on him.

Expect to see a lot more from Bonzi Wells this year. He had one of the best seasons of his career in Sacramento under Adelman, and should give this team even more quality depth as a guy who can score and rebound from the 3 spot.

Overview

Despite playing half the season without Yao, Houston was one of the league's best defensive teams. Despite not blocking a ton of shots (Yao and Mutumbo are the only shotblockers on the team), the Rockets held teams to a very low FG%, and most of that came from guys like Hayes and Battier who force a lot of bad shots. Houston also led the league in defensive rebound rate, so not only did teams miss a lot against them, they also didn't get many second chances. When you add Yao for a whole season, the Houston defense can only get better. On the offensive end, they definitely felt the loss of Yao and the lack of a decent point guard, as well as some stale playcalling on the part of Jeff Van Gundy. The hope in Houston is that a full season of Yao, improvement at the PG and PF positions, and the more offensive-minded Adelman can make for a top-level offense to complement that defense.

Prediction

It's all about Yao in Houston. They made the 4 seed with Yao playing only 48 games, but the load T-Mac had to take on had him worn down for the playoffs. If this team is healthy, they've got the best chance to keep the Spurs from repeating. No other team combines this kind of depth of talent with two top-tier superstars, but the season will hang on how well the team gels and if they can stay healthy.

I believe in this team. Don't ask me why, it's just a feeling. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they end up with the best record in the league next year. All the pieces are there, they just need to stay healthy.

3rd in the West - Championship Contenders