This is the start of my individual team in-depth analysis posts. For more information on the stats, you can check this post, and here is the entire Western Conference overview. I apologize in advance for the massive picture which I use to show the stats, but since this board doesn't really do tables and I'm copying from Excel, this is the easiest way for me to do it, and it has to be really big in order to be legible, so you'll just have to scroll to see it all.

Dallas Mavericks

Coach: Avery Johnson
2006-2007 Record: 67-15
06-07 Expected Record: 58-24
Offensive Rating: 111.6 (2nd in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 102.9 (5th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 50.9% (5th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 89.5 (28th in NBA)

Roster
(red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Funny how things work sometimes. Statistically, Nowitzki was a better player in 05-06 than he was last year, and Steve Nash has the best year of his career last year. However, Nash gets the MVP in 06, and the big German ends up with it last year. Eh, life is funny like that sometimes. Here's the thing, I really like Dirk, I truly do. He's one of the most unique players in the league, he's been as good as anyone in the league over the last 3 years, and his fadeaway jumper from the elbow might be the most unguardable shot since the skyhook. Here's the thing though, in the last two playoff series he has averaged 19.6 points on 38.7% shooting, and Golden State abused his defense that, while improved, is still poor. Unfairly or not, the blame for two straight playoff choke jobs falls on Nowitzki, and his career will be defined by how he handles that. He's posted great numbers, but until he proves that he has the kind of killer instinct that makes opposing fans cower in their seats, he doesn't belong in the same category as Duncan, Nash and Kobe.

It still amazes me that Josh Howard fell to the end of the first round. Forwards taken ahead of the ACC Player of the Year include Jarvis Hayes, Reece Gaines, Zarko Cabarkapa, Sasha Pavlovic, Dahntay Jones (I will never understand that one) and Ndudi Edi, unbelievable. Anyway, Howard is basically a poor man's Scottie Pippen, and he and Nowitzki are the best forward tandem in the West.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Mavs point guard situation. We heard a lot of rumors early in the offseason that they would be looking to move Jason Terry and hand the reigns over to Devin Harris, but no such shake-up was made. Harris is a bit better as a distributer and a much better defender, but Terry is the more dynamic scorer and better decision maker.

Bringing Stackhouse back was a big move for this team, he gives them attitude, and was probably the best player on the team last year at making his own shot. Neither of their offseason acquisitions are anything to get excited about, but keeping Stack was crucial.

X-Factor: Desagana Diop - Amazing to think that this guy was once a #8 pick, and is now working his way up from the bottom. If Diop had any semblance of an offensive game, he'd probably be the starter in Dallas. He's an excellent defensive center, among the best shotblockers in the league and surprisingly nimble. However, his offensive game is non-existant and when he does get the ball he turns it over a lot. If Diop's offensive game has made some progress over the summer, he could step in to the starting lineup and improve an already good defense without losing much on the other end.

Overview

Lets get something straight. The Mavs were very good last year, but they were also very lucky. They went an astounding 20-4 in games decided by less than 5 points, and outperformed their expected win-loss record by 9 games. They were actually third behind San Antonio and Phoenix in Exp Win%. They are an incredibly balanced team that excels on both ends of the court and have depth and talent at every position. One thing that surprised me was the fact that Dallas was the 3rd slowest team in the league, and shot less 3-pointers than any other team. Just a few years removed from Nellie and Nash's run-and-gun lightshow, the Mavs have turned a complete 180. One of the biggest reasons has been the evolution of Dirk from a long-range shooter to an actual post threat with an unstoppable mid-range game. Between Nowitzki, Howard, and Stackhouse, few teams can match the kind of efficient mid-range scorers that the Mavs have. They shoot very good percentages and take care of the ball (7th lowest turnover rate in the league). On defense they rely mainly on forcing bad shots and rebounding well, since they don't force a lot of turnovers and don't really have a great shotblocker outside of Diop.

Prediction

Your opinion of the Mavs for this year will depend heavily on how much stock you put in their postseason collapses. To me, I think that it was a mistake not to try and make a move to shake up this roster. The Golden State series on the heels of the Finals collapse was a huge blow to this team's psyche, and even if they're saying that they're past it now, it will come up again if the team goes through rough patches in the regular season. You just can't win in the playoffs with doubt, and right now there's doubt that this team, especially Dirk, can get it done. Of course, the other possibility is that Dirk plays like a man possessed in order to redeem himself and ends up just tearing the league a new one.

I'm not buying on Dallas, I don't think you can bounce back from two crippling series losses by maintaining the exact same roster, it just doesn't happen.

4th in the West - Championship Contenders