There's been a lot of discussion about the Spurs' place in history after their 4th title, and a lot of talk about where Tim Duncan falls in the pantheon of all-time greats. Up till now, I had thought it was a pretty well-aknowledged point that Duncan was the greatest power forward in the history of the game. However, I've seen recently that this is not the case.
We are always wary of labeling players as the "greatest ever". Every time this gets brought up with any current player, we immediately recoil and try to protect our legends. We'll talk about how much better the competition was when so-and-so played, and how guys these days just don't compare. We'll fondly remember a particular play we saw or an amazing game we witnessed and, with the passage of time magnifying its greatness, we're sure this present day kid could never do something like that. A player like Kobe Bryant has had to spend his entire career fighting a losing battle against skeptics who compare him to MJ, but who have already determined that MJ is incomprable. Now, this is not always a bad thing, since players for the most part will not live up to the legends of the sport's past. However, it's a shame that we have this knee-jerk response that doesn't even want to look at the facts. It's a shame because Tim Duncan is not only the best power forward ever, but it's not even that close. If you're not a Duncan supporter, find some time to take an unbiased look at his legacy, and realize that you're missing out on one of the all-time greats.
Just as a prelude before I really get into it, I'll give this disclaimer. I'm hardly the best person to evaluate historical players, cause I'm a young guy and the only experience I have watching a lot of these guys is ESPN Classic. I also realize that statistics are not always the best indicator of productivity, and I've tried to pull from as many sources as possible, but statistics have to play a big part in comparisons like this. Eyewitness observers are all going to have different opinions when they watch these different guys, and two guys who have seen both Kevin McHale and Duncan play in the same games might have both have a different opinion of who is better. This is why things like All-NBA and All-Defense team awards are important, because they tell us what a whole group of experts watching at that time thought about the player. Lastly, I'm not trying to take anything away from any of these legends. If anything, I have come away with an amazing respect for guys who I hadn't really taken a close look at before. I'm just trying to get you to realize how amazing Duncan's accomplishments have been.
Just to head this off before it comes up, a lot of people may complain about the quality of the league that Duncan has been dominating. This is almost a completely subjective measurement, because who can say for certain if the league was better this year or 20 years ago. One thing to note though is that Duncan has played in an era with more good power forwards than perhaps any other point in league history. I recall an SI article talking about the derth of great PFs in the Western conference, and it was a list so deep that a healthy Antonio McDyess coming off a 20-10 season was ranked second to last (in front of a young Pau Gasol entering his second year). His competition included Webber, Sheed, McDyess, Brand, Malone, Nowitzki, and more. Certainly, there has been no lack of talent to oppose Duncan.
With that said, on to the discussion. Everybody on my list was elected to the NBA's 50 Greatest team in 96, with the obvious exceptions of Duncan and Garnett. I went out and looked at their career statistics, their playoff numbers, and the awards that they have won in their career.
Sorry these are a little messy. I had these beautiful tables ready, but unfortunately, they didn't translate to here.
Career GP MPG PPG RPG APG BPG SPG FG% FT% TO PF
T.
Duncan 746 37.5 21.8 11.9 3.2 2.4 .8
50.9 68 2.88 2.7
K. Malone 1476 37.2 25
10.1 3.6 .7 1.41 51.6 74.2 3.07 3.1
M. Malone
1329 33.9 20.6 12.2 1.4 1.3 .82 49.1 76.9
2.86 2.3
K. McHale 971 31.0 17.9 7.3 1.7 1.7
.4 55.4 79.8 2.5 3.7
C. Barkley 1073 36.7 22.1 11.7 3.9 .83 1.54 54.1 73.5 3.15 3.1
K.
Garnett 927 38.3 20.5 11.4 4.5 1.7 1.4
49.1 78 2.57 2.5
E. Hayes 1303 38.4 21
12.5 1.8 2 1 45.2 67 2.4 3.2
B.
Pettit 792 38.8 26.4 16.2 3 N/A N/A
43.6 76.1 N/A 3.2
Playoffs GP MPG PPG RPG APG BPG SPG FG% FT% TO PF
T.
Duncan 137 40.1 23.9 12.5 3.5 2.8 .7
50.9 69.9 3.15 3.1
K. Malone 193 41 24.7
10.7 3.2 .7 1.34 46.3 73.6 2.85 3.4
M.
Malone 94 40.4 22.1 13.8 1.4 1.3 .89
47.9 76.2 2.62 2.6
K. McHale 169 34 18.8
7.4 1.6 1.66 .4 56.1 79 1.9 3.4
C.
Barkley 123 39.4 23 12.9 3.9 .88 1.57
51.3 71.7 2.87 3.3
K. Garnett 47 42.6 22.3
10.5 5 1.9 1.3 45.8 76.1 3.43 3.2
E.
Hayes 96 43 22.9 13 1.9 2.6 1.13
46 65 2 3.94
B. Pettit 88 40
25.5 14.8 2.7 N/A N/A 42 77 N/A 3.14
Awards Seasons Rings MVPs All-Star Finals All-NBA All-Defense
Played Games MVPs Teams Teams
T.
Duncan 10 4 2
9 3 10 10
K.
Malone 19 0 2
14 0 12 2
M.
Malone 20 1 3
12 1 8 2
K.
McHale 13 3 0 7
0 1 6
C. Barkley
16 0 1 11
0 11 0
K. Garnett 12
0 1 10 0
7 7
E. Hayes 16
1 0 12 0 6
2
B. Pettit 11
1 2 11 N/A
11 N/A
You've probably been told that Duncan's statistics don't hold up that favorably with the all-time greats, and that the credit he is given is mostly based on his team success. As you can see, this is simply not true. He's the 4th highest scorer, 4th highest rebounder, 4th highest in assists, and 1st in blocks. In fact, the only really significant category that Duncan fails in is free-throw shooting, but we pretty much knew that going in. The point is, Duncan's statistics hold up just fine in comparison to everyone else.
Before I get too much further, there are really two special cases in this list that I wanted to address.
Kevin McHale - His raw numbers just don't compare with the other guys. This is mostly as a result of him sharing the front line with fellow greats Robert Parish and Larry Bird. One can argue that McHale would've posted better numbers if he had been the main focus of the offense (and his transcendent 86-87 year when he posted 26-10 seems to agree), but that argument goes both ways. McHale certainly would not have all his rings without those other Hall of Famers, and I think it's safe to say that his field goal percentage was helped mightily by the presence of Bird's keen passing eye. In the end, we have to evaluate players by what they did, not what they could have done.
Bob Pettit - I almost hesitate to put him on this list because the league he played in was so different than the NBA we see today. Also, since things like blocks, steals, and All-Defense teams weren't recorded when he played, it's almost impossible to measure his defensive presence. Just keep in mind the era he played in when we're looking at his career.
Offense
Duncan is certainly not the best offensive player in the group, that honor has to belong to either the good Sir Charles or the Mailman. Both had higher scoring averages, assist averages, and shooting percentages. Of course, Malone had Stockton and Barkley played with Mo Cheeks and Kevin Johnson, the kind of point guard help that Duncan has been missing until the last few years as Parker developed. Pettit's numbers jump off the page at first sight, but you have to realize that he shot a very poor percentage for a post, and he played in an era where 7 footers were extremely rare, and numbers were typically inflated (see Chamberlain, Wilt). McHale was a highly efficient scorer, but wasn't nearly as prolific as anyone else on this list. On my list, Duncan comes in as the third most effective scorer, though Moses Malone and Garnett are very comprable to him as a scorer.
Rebounding
I won't spend too much time on this since most of these guys have comprable rebounding averages. Pettit was probably the first great offensive rebound in the league as he was known for his relentlessness, though his rebounding stats were definitely inflated by the era he played in (where guys averaging 20 rpg was not unheard of). The only thing really to note is that Karl Malone and McHale were significantly weaker rebounders than the rest of the group.
Defense
This is the category where Duncan immediately jumps off the page. Despite having played less years than everyone else, he leads the group in All-Defensive team selections by a wide margin. Only Garnett and McHale are close, and they're 3 and 4 behind him. Duncan might be the best ever at blocking shots without putting himself in position to foul, as his 2.4 blocks to 2.7 fouls attest. He's just a notch above everyone else defensively, the only one close is Garnett, who is the more versatile defender. Check out the Spurs' league ranks in defensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) since Duncan arrived.
97-98 - 2nd
98-99 - 1st
99-00 - 1st
00-01 - 1st
01-02 - 1st
02-03 - 3rd
03-04 - 1st
04-05 - 1st
05-06 - 1st
06-07 - 2nd
That's just obscene. For comparison, Garnett's T-Wolves have only been in the top 10 once during his career.
Postseason
It's hard to argue with Duncan's success in the postseason. When you compare his statistics, he's one of only 3 players on this list who didn't have their FG% drop in the playoffs. The other players on the list saw their percentages go down as much as 5%, a significant drop in efficiency. Garnett, for example, raised his scoring in the playoffs, but also played more minutes and had his FG% drop by 3.5%. Of course, outside of statistics, Duncan also just flat-out wins, as his 4 titles and 3 Finals MVP awards show. McHale has 3 titles, but wasn't the driving force behind those teams like Duncan was. Nobody else on the list can boast multiple titles.
Analysis
While one player might be a better scorer or a better rebounder than Duncan, nobody compines the entire package like the Big Fundamental does. Only K. Malone and Barkley scored more than Duncan at the same efficiency, but neither of them were anywhere close to the defender Duncan is, nor did they have the kind of playoff success that Duncan has had. Hayes and M. Malone were better rebounders, but they weren't as efficient scorers, and also fall behind in defense and playoff success. Pettit's numbers impress, but he wasn't nearly as efficient a player, and his averages are inflated by the era he played in. McHale probably comes as close as anyone to matching Duncan in scoring efficiency and defensive prowess along with postseason success, but he's not as good a rebounder and was never the number one guy on his own team, which meant he wasn't as prolific as the others on the list. Garnett is arguably Duncan's equal on the offensive end of the floor, and he is darn close on the defensive end too. However, Duncan's ability to lead his team to the championship, the ultimate goal of any player, far overshadows Garnett's playoff struggles. Yes, Duncan has had the stronger team more consistently, but you'd be hard-pressed to convince me that Minnesota's lineup of Garnett, Cassell, Sprewell, and Szczerbiak was any worse than some of the teams Duncan has led to the title (keep in mind, that team got beat in the west finals by a Laker team that ended up getting destroyed by effectively the same Detroit team the Spurs beat the next year). Duncan will go down in history as one of the game's greatest defensive players, but also as one of its most complete players. There is little that he doesn't excel in, and he raises his game to another level when it matters.
Going beyond the realm of statistics, Duncan is certainly not the most dynamic player to watch play. His game is lacking in the flair department, but there has never been a more fundamentally sound player. I know it sounds cliche to say that, since it's what everyone says, but it's absolutely true. Outside of a Kareem skyhook, there's not a post move in the game that Duncan isn't proficient at. He put on an absolute clinic in this year's finals, scoring at will against Anderson Varejao, who is a pretty good defender. Defensively, there's nobody as good as Duncan at protecting the rim without fouling, and he covers up a lot of his teammates' mistakes. The most impressive play for me in the finals was in game one, where Lebron knocked Bowen over on the blocks, only to find Duncan there to block the shot (clip). The most impressive thing to me is not the block, but that Duncan, realizing that Bowen is on the ground, then drops into a defensive crouch and follows Lebron out to the three-point line where he forces up a shot. He's great at poking the ball away from the man he's guarding, and he's a terrific help defender.
We're naturally predisposed to protect our legends, but no power forward in the history of the game has dominated both ends of the floor like Duncan does, nor can any PF match his playoff success. The Big Fundamental has been consistently brilliant since the moment he arrived and shows no signs of letting up after ten years. Barring injury, he'll only be adding to his illustrious numbers and putting more distance between himself and the rest of the crowd. At this point, his success is simply overwhelming, and he's clearly a cut above history's other representatives at his position.