After what feels like 6 months of the NBA playoffs, the finals start tonight.  After what feels like 6 months of blog-silence, xea76 is back in business.  I'm excited about these finals because it brings us back to the old "east vs. west tempo" series.  Miami will try to grind it out while the Mavs, however not as much as in years past, will try to push the tempo as much as possible.

The HOT factor:  Between the two teams, Miami is definately playing the best basketball right now.  Dwayne Wade has vaulted himself into the "best post-MJ player" category.  Boy I wish ESPN would not remind us of MJ so much.  I remember him.  He was great, probably the greatest.  He's gone now.  I'm over it.  You should be too!  Shaq is still dominating in spurts.  If Shaq can do that against Rasheed plus the double and Big Ben, he won't exactly be sitting up nights worrying about the Diop, Van Horn rotation.  Advantage:  Miami

The Home Court factor:  The general feeling is that this only factors in if the series goes seven games.  However, Dallas is an amazing home team.  Not only did they tie San Antonio with the best record in the West this season but they have shown the amazing ability to respond on the road when they do lose at home.  If you are an honest, non-Mavs fan, there is no way you thought Dallas would respond after losing a closeout game at home against San Antonio.  They did just that.  They are the better home team, and the better team when playing venue is the criteria.  Advantage:  Dallas

The Coaching factor:  This is the hardest for me even though its the easiest on paper.  As great as Pat Riley has been, I can't find Magic Johnson on this Miami roster.  I can't get over the fact that all of his finals success came with one group of players.  Obviously Avery is a newcomer, but how can you not love the difference you see in the post-Nellie Mavs.  These are hardnosed, athletic, tough guys that get after like . . . well . . . a Pat Riley team!  I'm giving the edge to Riles here, but as Lee Corso would say, "It's closer than the experts think".   Advantage:  Miami

 The Best Player factor:  The bottom line on this element of the series is this:  No Heat player is playing better than Dirk Nowitzki.  No Mavs player is better than Dwayne Wade.  Dirk can shoot his team to the title.  I have no doubt.  However, Wade can make the play on the defensive end that creates the ability to win the game on the offensive end.  In my opinion, LeBron James is the only player that even belongs in the same sentence with Wade.  If Kobe can get his mind right, he's right there too.  Advantage:  Miami 

In the end, this series is going to come down to a few factors beyond the ones mentioned above.  Who will be more productive, Antoine Walker or Josh Howard?  Can Shaq avoid foul trouble (both committing too many and missing too many when he's fouled"?  WIl Jason Williams contribute anything?  If Dallas has to double Shaq, will they double with "bigs" or "smalls"?  Can Miami make shots if Shaq is doubled?

I have one simple philosophy when it comes to the NBA finals predicitons.  If Shaq is in it, I'm taking his team.  I can honestly say I developed that montra after his early career encounter with Hakeem!  Shaq is not the Shaq of old, but there is still no answer for him in the league.  I would like to present to you the 2005-2006 NBA World Champion Miami Heat.  Can you dig it!?!