Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

The San Francisco 49ers weren't exactly a sleeper team headed into last season but they did win over a number of fans down the stretch of the season.

After one touchdown pass and 11 interceptions in his rookie season, there were all sorts of trepidations surrounding quarterback Alex Smith's future as a franchise starter.

But Smith bounced back in a big way, mostly because of the addition of Norv Turner at offensive coordinator.

Turner, an offensive guru and quarterback wizard, got Smith's touchdown-interception ratio back to even (16/16).

Smith was greatly aided by the breakout season from Frank Gore, who set a franchise-record with 1695 rushing yards.

The 49ers offense was fairly one-dimensional as the wide receivers were far too inconsistent. The best of the bunch might have been Antonio Bryant, who was the big play threat, but was very in-and-out. Arnaz Battle, who is a good blocker and has good hands, was far more consistent but he doesn't have big-play potential.

Tight end Vernon Davis was supposed to bring that to the table but was limited to 10 games and 20 catches.

The 49ers deserve credit for building their team properly. They were mocked for signing Jonas Jennings and Larry Allen, but unlike teams like the Houston Texans, they are rebuilding their team from the inside out. They are clearly headed in the right direction.

On defense, the 49ers weren't bad. But they weren't exactly good either.

Cornerback Walt Harris had a career-year out of the blue. The 32-year-old deservedly eearned a Pro Bowl berth. Other quality prospects on defense included linebacker Brandon Moore, who led the team in tackles. Rookie Manny Lawson was a good pass rusher but lacked in run defense.

The 49ers defensive line was still a weakness with no real nose tackle and stalwart end Bryant Young older growing in age.

But as a whole, while the parts didn't look great and the total ranking didn't impress, the 49ers still played better than their rosters looked on paper.

Are They A Sleeper?

I'm here to break everyone's hearts and tell you that the 49ers won't be making the playoffs. If you have them tabbed as the apple of your eye, as that one NFL team that comes out of nowhere, it won't be the 49ers.

For starters, they lost offensive coordinator Norv Turner, who was instrumental in the growth of the offense last year. That's not to say that Smith and Gore won't continue to improve, but they would have been better off had Turner stayed.

The 49ers added some weapons for Smith to work with but they aren't exactly top-of-the-line guys.

Ashley Lelie is a one-dimensional threat as a go-route threat, but doesn't catch any passes where he might take a hit. Darrell Jackson was acquired in a trade from Seattle, but he had trouble staying healthy the last two seasons and dropped more easy catches than you might think.

Jackson gives the offense a legitimate 1000-yard threat and a good target for Smith, but he's never reached 1200 yards receiving and doesn't exactly give any cornerbacks nightmares.

The real difference-maker in the passing game has to be Vernon Davis, who is a freak athlete and is coming off a good offseason. While his measurables are outstanding, he needs to develop into what everyone thinks he can be.

The 49ers defense will be better because of the additions Nate Clements and Patrick Willis, but temper expectations for safety Michael Lewis. The former Eagle was benched last year and although he adds a physical presence, he'll get burned in coverage quite a bit.

There are some concerns in the secondary outside of Lewis, though. Clements will start opposite of Harris, who is 33-years-old. It's doubtful he'll duplicate his performance from last season. Shawntae Spencer is a good nickelback but safety Mark Roman is average at best.

The biggest concern for this defense is the three men up front.

Bryant Young, the only player remaining from the 49ers last Super Bowl team, is 35-years-old and missed a chunk of the preseason with a back injury. Aubrayo Franklin, who was brought in to anchor the nose, has a partially torn knee ligament.

The 3-4 defense doesn't work very well without the guys up front and the 49ers are fairly weak here.

The 49ers roster looks like an 8-8 squad, but they may not even get to there.

The Schedule:

For any sleeper team that is breaking out, the key is to get off to a great start. With a really rough opponent list prior to their bye week, the 49ers won't get that opportunity.

They will beat Arizona on opening night at home - that's a given.

They head to St. Louis the following week, which will be a very difficult game against an improved Rams' squad.

They travel to Pittsburgh in Week Three, which will be another loss, then they are at home to Baltimore and Seattle the next two weeks prior to their bye week.

Baltimore won 13 games last year and added Willis McGahee while the Seattle Seahawks will want to exact revenge on the 49ers, who swept them last year.

We'll give them a split here.

Next, the 49ers head to New York to face the Giants after their bye week and then are back home to New Orleans.

A split here would be a positive result.

This could easily be a 2-5 start, which will derail those playoff expectations.

The good news is that the 49ers schedule is much easier on the back end, particularly with three of their final four games coming at home.

Look for the 49ers to finish strong and become a playoff contender in 2008.

Biggest Weakness: Defensive Line - There isn't much depth at end, and Young and Franklin are already hurt. This unit could derail defensive expectations.

Offensive X-Factor: Vernon Davis - He has to become Smith's top target for this offense to become anything better than mediocre.

Defensive X-Factor: Walt Harris - If he can be a shutdown guy along with Clements, that will give the 49ers much more flexibility in their front seven.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

While I might not think that Darrell Jackson can take this offense to new heights, he is still a No. 1 receiver in this offense. For a small wide receiver, he is more of a touchdown threat than people give him credit for. He has 29 touchdowns in his last 35 games. He should be a lock for at least 70 receptions.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "Hardcore Fantasy" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch it weekly on Saturdays at 12:00 PM ET.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

So close, yet so far.

The San Diego Chargers made giant leaps in 2006 but couldn't put all together in the playoffs.

The season started with a bold decision to let the injured Drew Brees walk and hand the team to untested quarterback, Philip Rivers.

Quiet clearly, the plan was to keep the pressure off of Rivers for the first season by leaning more on the shoulders of LaDainian Tomlinson.

The Chargers offense was stellar with the ground attack. Obviously having Tomlinson helped, but the offensive line was as strong as it had been in recent memory.

But instead of lauding what went well, let's focus on what needs to be fixed.

For starters, Rivers didn't have a good full season. Whether it was the rigors of playing a full 16-game schedule for the first time or simply slumping a little bit, he didn't exude the same confidence in the latter stages of the season that he showed in the first two months.

In the passing game, the Chargers were pretty much the same team they had always been for the past five years.

Tight end, Antonio Gates, was the main threat while the wide receivers were just a run-of-the-mill group.

Out of 287 completions, only 126 were made by wide receivers. When it came down to the playoffs, having so few threats on the edges came back to hurt the team.

On defense, the Chargers were phenomenal. The loss of Steve Foley at the beginning of the season was quickly forgotten as Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman wreaked havoc off of the edges.

Up front, the Chargers have probably the best defensive line anchoring a 3-4. Nose tackle Jamal Williams sucks up double-teams every play but Luis Castillo is an awesome end player who doesn't get so much credit.

The secondary, which was previously a weakness, stepped up and played a little bit better. I'm still cautious to give them a ton of credit simply because the front seven made their work so much easier.

The Playoff Loss:

So another one of Marty Schottenheimer's teams fails to execute in the playoffs. What else is new?

I won't - and don't - blame Schottenheimer for the loss.

Last season, there were concerns early on as to how conservative the Chargers would be with a raw starting quarterback but the playbook was open from day one and there were no training wheels.

I'll give credit to Schottenheimer, a coach with a pretty bad track record of being conservative, for easing up.

Interesting enough, though, maybe he eased up too much.

In the playoff game against New England, the Chargers only gave eight carries to Tomlinson in the second half while protecting the lead. The old Marty Ball approach would have been to feed him 20-25 in the second half.

But the coaching staff chose to be aggressive - possibly because they had been ripped in the past for being too conservative.

I guess their damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Using Letters To Breakdown Numbers: Philip Rivers

Rivers came out of the gates from a canon in 2006 and the transition from Brees to Rivers appeared seamless.

But having a first-time starter running the show ended up hurting the Chargers - in the short term anyways.

Rivers didn't throw an interception in September and had a quarterback rating of 107.4 at the end of the month. But unfortunately, it wouldn't only regress from there.

September:
33-46, 71.7%, 2 TD, 0 INT, 107.4 QB RATING

October:
106-164, 64.6%, 8 TD, 3 INT, 94.9 QB RATING

November:
76-121, 62.8%, 5 TD, 3 INT, 89.0 QB RATING

December:
69-129, 53.5%, 7 TD, 3 INT, 85.7 QB RATING

It's normal for first-time starters (or rookies, for that matter) to fade down the stretch of their first season. With Rivers, he visibly wasn't as confident as he was at the start of the year and that further affected a passing game that wasn't so strong to begin with.

Goodbye Coaching Staff, Goodbye Championship?:

The Chargers were so close last season and they probably won't come that close again this year.

Sure, the talent returns including 10 Pro Bowlers. Furthermore, the team is super young so a lot the players will probably get better - including Tomlinson.

But after losing an entire staff, you can't expect for continuity.

No, that doesn't mean that the Chargers will flop and finish with eight wins. What it means is that the last coaching staff new the exact buttons to push to get the most out of everyone.

Norv Turner has already shown in the past that he is not capable of doing that as a head coach.

The last staff had even morphed to the players, throwing their conservative play-calling out the window to better mold to the team.

This is really a can't-win situation for Turner. In his previous stops in Oakland and Washington, he had virtually no expectations to produce right away. In San Diego, if he falls short of the Super Bowl, the season will be a disappointment.

Losing Cam Cameron and Wade Phillips might hurt even more than losing Schottenheimer.

The offense and defense were both peaking under their respective coordinators. Now they have brought in coaches to run a similar system, but Diet Coke is not Coke.

Turner is an excellent offensive coordinator but his teams have lacked discipline in the past. Turnovers, penalties and bonehead mistakes in execution have plagued his teams while he headed them and he ended up losing clout in the clubhouse. That likely won't happen this year, but it will happen.

This Year:

Expect the Chargers to be an excellent regular season team - they look like they are built perfectly for it. But I don't think there are many people that will believe they can beat New England - at home or on the road - in the playoffs at this point.

The offense returns nine starters but added a first-round pick in wide receiver Craig Davis. It's clear that the wide receiving corps in the weakness on offense but the Chargers are banking on Davis and Vincent Jackson to bust out.

Expect Rivers to piece together a full, quality season while relying less on Tomlinson. Don't get me wrong, Tomlinson is the cornerstone, but look for them to trust Rivers a lot more.

Keep an eye on Darren Sproles. Not that this team needs a third-down back or a runner to catch out of the backfield, Sproles is strong in that role. But he can give this team a big boost on special teams returns, which they were optimistic about last year until he got hurt.

The defense returns eight starters but it looks like even the front office is concerned about the secondary. They used their second-round pick on safety Eric Weddle and also dipped into the supplemental draft to add another cornerback in Paul Oliver.

The only real changes in the starting lineup will be at middle linebacker, where the Chargers installed Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm as fulltime guys. Veteran Donnie Edwards, who had been whining for a while, left to Kansas City.

To be honest, no team in the NFL has more talent than the Chargers but I have very little faith in Norv Turner. Watching the very first pre-season game, I remember why his teams were so bad. In an opening series versus Seattle, the Chargers' drive started positively but was riddled with penalties and execution blunders that ended the drive. Yes, I know it was the first pre-season game, but those are typical characteristics of a Norv Turner team and as the evidence shows, he is simply not a good coach.

Biggest Weakness: Mettle - The Chargers will beat any top-tier team they face in the regular season (including New England) but they have to prove that they can win in the playoffs. Nothing else matters.

Offensive X-Factor: Craig Davis/Vincent Jackson - We know Tomlinson is great, we know Gates is great, we know Rivers is only on his way up; if the Chargers could add another consistent threat on the outside they would be extremely tough to stop.

Defensive X-Factor: Marlon McCree - The Carolina Panthers regret losing this guy; he may not be great but he is the quarterback of the secondary. He communicates well and lines everybody up properly.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

I get the feeling that Philip Rivers can easily become a No. 1 fantasy quarterback. He threw 22 touchdowns and only nine interceptions last year, which indicates that he was already a good No. 2 option.

He is playing with more confidence than last season but this time it will last all year long. With the growth of Jackson, the addition of Craig Davis, and Eric Parker out to prove that he is an asset, look for Rivers to get 25+ touchdown passes.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "Hardcore Fantasy" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch it weekly on Saturdays at 12:00 PM ET.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

Following a Super Bowl season where everything went perfect, the Pittsburgh Steelers didn't get many breaks in 2006.

Starting off with Ben Roethlisberger trying to impersonate Kellen Winslow Jr. on a motorcycle, then his appendicitis, and then the gloomy cloud of Bill Cowher's pending retirement looming, there were too many distractions for the Steelers to focus on football.

In reality, the Steelers were virtually the same team as the previous year, only they endured a tougher schedule, more injuries and more distractions.

There were a couple of key changes on offense with Jerome Bettis' retirement and Antwan Randle El's departure to Washington, but by the end of the season the Steelers had resolved those issues.

First-round pick, Santonio Holmes, looked like a capable replacement for Randle El's big plays and has flashed potential to be a more complete receiver. He finished the season very strong, catching 16 passes for 320 yards (of his 824 receiving yards) in the last four games.

With Bettis out of the way, Willie Parker shouldered a full load and handled 337 carries. He only 287 career carries prior to last season.

Parker started slow and only averaged 3.8 yards-per-carry in September and October. But like the rest of the team, he finished strong, collecting 930 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in the last two months of the season.

The Steelers are clearly a different team under Roethlisberger than they are with anyone else. Once he finally got back in the feel of things by mid-season, the team turned around their losing season.

At one point, the Steelers were 2-6 but finished 6-2. Their only two losses in their last eight games were at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers were outscored 58-7 in those contests.

On defense, Pittsburgh had a rough go in the secondary. Veteran safety Chris Hope was their big free agent loss on defense but Anthony Smith shown good promise as a rookie.

The secondary was maligned last year, particularly starter Ike Taylor, who was benched mid-season, but part of the problem was the drop-off in pass rush. They weren't getting enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which left the secondary exposed.

The performance by the outside linebackers was clearly lacking. Joey Porter wasn't very productive, which left the Steelers short for sacks.

Without sacks and a penchant for mistakes (-8 turnover ratio), the Steelers were making more mental mistakes than they could afford to make.

With a renewed focus, those things can be corrected.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Sacks & Turnover Ratio

For a team that has typically played smart football under Coach Cowher and preyed on their opponent's mistakes, the Steelers were out of their element last year.

The Steelers had 47 sacks in 2005, but only 39 last year.

39 is still a good total and in the upper echelons of the league, but for Pittsburgh, that small drop-off indicated a drop in ferociousness.

In 2005 and 2004, the Steelers were a physical, dominating defense that you wouldn't want to face on Sundays. Last year, opponents didn't mind so much.

In 2005, the Steelers were careful with the football and had only 23 giveaways, which was the seventh-lowest total. Last year, the Steelers had 37 giveaways - including 23 interceptions - which was the fourth-most in the league.

The good news is that these two areas of weakness are typically an area of strength for this team, which indicates that last year was an aberration.

Back To The Playoffs?:

The Steelers franchise hasn't needed to make many head coaching hires but after Cowher's retirement, they were pressed into action.

They hired Mike Tomlin, who has impressed as a defensive coach since coming into the league. He will be one of the league's youngest coaches but he has the look of a winner. He is calm, poised and knows what needs to be accomplished.

The Steelers recognized that their pass rush needed to be addressed, particularly their outside linebacking spots, and they used their first two draft selections to fill that need.

Lawrence Timmons and LaMar Woodley will step into the rotation right away, with Jerome Harrison and Clark Haggans starting ahead of them. Few teams can evaluate linebackers better than Pittsburgh and with six good players, this looks to be as deep a unit as anywhere in the NFL. With so much depth, the Steelers will be constantly cycling in fresh bodies.

The Steelers are solid up front on the defensive line with anchor Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel, who enjoyed a breakout season last year. Aaron Smith is also very solid at the other end position.

It looks like the Steelers will be able to get to - or rattle - opposing quarterbacks more frequently, which means their secondary should get the help it needs.

Coach Tomlin has been working with secondaries throughout his NFL career and he has spent extra time tending to this unit so expect them to bounce back. There are very good players all the way around in the secondary, so the problem does not stem from a lack of talent.

You can expect the rushing defense to be as good if not better, and they didn't allow a 100-yard rushing effort all of last season. If the passing defense improves, the Steelers should be smashmouth again.

On offense, the Steelers are undergoing a number of changes on their offensive line. A failure upfront could undermine any success the Steelers plan to have, which is why they are spending so much time evaluating who should make the final five.

Center Jeff Hartings retired and left guard Alan Faneca, who has made the last six Pro Bowls, is a malcontent at this point. He wants a new contract, won't get it and already stated he's done playing for the Steelers after this season.

Marvel Smith will start at left tackle, but the other three positions are open.

The Steelers gave center Sean Mahan starter's money but are also paying Chukky Okobi close to starter's money, which presents an interesting situation at center. Kendall Simmons has been decent at times at right guard and right tackle Max Starks is a borderline starter.

There isn't much depth at the tackle positions, which is a concern.

The Steelers hired Bruce Arians as their offensive coordinator and he has implemented a deep passing game, which caters to Roethlisberger's physical tools, but if the offensive line is in shambles, it won't work.

With Roethlisberger, Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller, there are plenty of good parts on this offense. The only reason they won't be good enough to make a run at a wild card spot is if the front five isn't cohesive.

Biggest Weakness: Offensive Line - There is more uncertainty at this position than there has been in about five years.

Offensive X-Factor: Santonio Holmes - While the downfield passing system is built more for Roethlisberger, expect Holmes to also be a huge benefactor.

Defensive X-Factor: LaMar Woodley - The Steelers are looking to him (and Timmons) to get at the quarterback and improve on their weak production from the position last year.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

Santonio Holmes finished strong and now plays in an offense that will allow him to flash his downfield speed and yards-after-the-catch ability. The gameplan won't change a whole lot; the Steelers will still be run first, but don't be surprised if Holmes finishes with more receiving yards than Hines Ward this year.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "Hardcore Fantasy" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch it weekly on Saturdays at 12:00 PM ET.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

When Donovan McNabb suffered a Jamal Anderson-type of season-ending injury, it looked like the Philadelphia Eagles were done.

While a backup quarterback is supposed to be good enough to step in for a short period of time and sustain the team until the regular starter gets back, Jeff Garcia stepped in and thrived in the fulltime role.

The biggest reason for his success was a change in the offensive philosophy. With McNabb, the Eagles forced the pass much more than they needed to and rushed the ball a lot less. When Garcia took over, there was an even 50-50 balance.

Brian Westbrook has always been a playmaker, which makes me questions why they've waited so long to feed him the ball.

The Eagles have always employed a short passing game to replace the runs but as they found out last year, running the ball is much different.

To be honest, I don't really feel much need to delve deep into what happened in Philadelphia last season.

Even without McNabb, the Eagles were basically the same team they have been since Andy Reid took over.

Their defense is good, but not great. They bend, but don't break. They give up a ton of yards on the ground but tighten up in the red zone. Some of the faces may have changed, but the result was basically the same.

On offense, the Eagles are virtually the same. They don't make a ton of mistakes, they'll beat any team that makes a ton of mistakes, they have a sturdy offensive line, they rarely invest heavily in their wide receivers and they can move the ball with the pass.

The story remains virtually the same but the names and faces change. The Eagles are not a great team by any stretch of the imagination, but they are really good in a number of areas and that is why they are always competitive.

But when it gets down to the nitty-gritty, such as the playoffs, being just a good team doesn't cut it. They often fall to an opponent who either executes better or is stronger on either offense or defense. Sounds pretty basic, but that sums up the Eagles. They'll be competitive, they'll be good but they won't be great.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Running Game

The Eagles may not have LaDainian Tomlinson, but considering they have a pretty good back in Westbrook, the scant amount of rushing attempts they give him is ridiculous.

Last season, the Eagles averaged 26 rushing attempts per game, which was only better than Miami, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Oakland and Cleveland. The latter five teams had abysmal offensive lines and were some of the worst teams in the league. Why is Philadelphia among this group?

But that is how they've always been during Reid's tenure.

In 2005, the Eagles rushed the ball 22.8 times per game. Only the Oakland and Arizona average fewer carries per game.

In 2004, they ranked 31st in the NFL in carries-per-game. In 2003, they ranked 25th.

Last year, though, for the first time since Westbrook was the main running back in this offense, the Eagles started to feed him carries. This only happened once McNabb was hurt.

Westbrook has always been a receiving threat and is among the league leaders in receptions for running backs but the most carries he had taken prior to last year was 177. Last year, he rushed 240 times.

McNabb was injured against Tennessee in Week 10 and only after that did the Eagles finally switch to a reasonable rushing-to-passing ratio.

Prior to that game, Westbrook averaged less than 15 carries per game. In Tennessee, and afterwards, Westbrook averaged 20 carries-per-game (excluding Week 17).

The Eagles just don't like to run the ball a lot - more specifically, Andy Reid. It was offensive coordinator, Marty Mornihnweg's decision to add more balance.

The Atlanta Braves Of The NFL:

Even with McNabb back, the Eagles are going to pretty do what they do every year. They are a good team - probably one of the better outfits in the NFC - but they still aren't good enough to win a Super Bowl.

They kind of remind me of the Atlanta Braves. The Eagles will always be competitive under Coach Reid, they will probably give Dallas a run for their money for the division, but the Eagles just are not good enough to win deep in the playoffs.

The Eagles swapped out Donte Stallworth for Kevin Curtis, which leaves them even, and returned most of their other familiar faces on offense.

The only other significant addition will be rookie running back Tony Hunt, who will probably get the goal line carries.

On defense, the Eagles traded away defensive tackle Darwin Walker but added run-stuffer Ian Scott and the quicker Montae Reagor. The Eagles will get Jevon Kearse back, which means that once again they will get after quarterbacks - like they always do.

They picked up Takeo Spikes in the Walker trade, which essentially allowed them to release Jeremiah Trotter. Trotter is slowing down and was fairly one-dimensional as a run-stuffer last year and his knees are a question mark. There's speculation that there isn't much cartilage in his knee.

The Eagles have been grooming Chris Gocong for a couple of years and Omar Gaither stepped in a rookie last year, so they seem content with this trio.

Like wide receiver on offense, the Eagles don't invest a ton of money or high draft picks on linebackers.

The secondary will be strong once again. The only real change will be Sean Considine, but he took over for Michael Lewis mid-season last year and never relinquished the job.

Caveat Emptor - Buyer Beware When Shopping From The Eagles:

The Eagles know how to evaluate their defensive parts better than anyone else and many times other teams thought they were picking apart a stout Eagles defense by signing starters off their roster but ended up looking pretty foolish.

Here's a few examples:

Bobby Taylor
Troy Vincent
Jeremiah Trotter (when he left to the Washington Redskins)
Hugh Douglas
N.D. Kalu (although he wasn't very good to begin with)
Corey Simon
Carlos Emmons
Shawn Barber

The Eagles know just when to sell high and my guess is that is the case with safety Michael Lewis.

Biggest Weakness: Lack of Greatness - An odd weakness, but the Eagles just don't stand out in any one area outside of maybe pass rush. They are playoffs good but not Super Bowl good.

Offensive X-Factor: Andy Reid - We've never seen what the Eagles can do if they run the ball a reasonable amount of times with Westbrook and have McNabb healthy. That could be the x-factor to making this team a Super Bowl threat - but will they run it?

Defensive X-Factor: Defensive Tackles - The Eagles are always a bend-but-don't-break defense, which means that teams run on them at will. This needs to be addressed if they Eagles are to make a serious run.

Fantasy Market: Sell High

There is no evidence to show that the Eagles will continue their run-heavy tendencies from the second-half of last season when McNabb was injured. If that's the case, expect Westbrook to go back to rushing as many times as he used to rush, which is about 170 carries per season. With McNabb back, his workload will decrease. The Eagles also selected running back Tony Hunt in the third-round of the 2007 Draft and he's been prying goal line carries.

My guess is that he'll finish between 180 - 200 carries, but even so, that will put him below 1000 yards rushing. Westbrook is still a good back, but he shouldn't be an option in the first round given his track record before his career-year last season.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "Hardcore Fantasy" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch it weekly on Saturdays at 12:00 PM ET.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

So the Aaron Brooks experiment didn't go so well. And the return of Art Shell was a mistake. As a matter of fact, the Oakland Raiders didn't do much right in 2006.

Their offense looked like it was managed by a coordinator who was more qualified to run a bed and breakfast in Idaho, which happened to be the unfortunate truth.

They got off on the wrong foot immediately as their offensive line was ragdolled on national television to open the season. The San Diego Chargers completely dismantled the Raiders offense, which foreshadowed a disastrous season.

It was clear that Brooks wasn't the answer at quarterback but it's not like he received much help. The Raiders five linemen were turnstiles and allowed a league-high 72 sacks.

They weren't much better at run-blocking either as LaMont Jordan couldn't accomplish much.

Not only were their physical failures on the field, there were mental failures off of it. The team's No. 2 wideout, Jerry Porter, clashed with head coach, Art Shell and their feud seeped into the locker room.

Porter openly ripped his coach, which meant it was only a matter of time before Randy Moss did. Safety Jarrod Cooper also took some shots.

The bottom line with Shell was that he simply looked lost last year and his team lost faith.

With the offense completely defunct, the balance of power on this team defected to the defense.

While there were trepidations as to how the defensive line would hold up, there was no doubting the Raiders prospects in the back seven.

Up front, Derrick Burgess was a stud but nobody was really sure what else was there. Warren Sapp, who was allegedly on the decline, led all defensive tackles in the NFL with 10 sacks. With Sapp and Burgess, the Raiders had a quality tandem to start with.

Terdell Sands, the team's top run-stuffer, was also a good piece but he had a handful of mental lapses.

While the Raiders were strong against the pass (1st overall) but gave it up like Jenna Jameson in a porn flick on the ground (25th overall).

The good news was that with the emergence of Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard, the Raiders finally had sideline-to-sideline coverage for the first time in a long time.

In the secondary, Nnamdi Asomugha and Fabian Washington, both of whom were previously lauded for stellar coverage but ripped for a lack of interceptions, shed the latter criticism. Asomugha, a three-year veteran, and Washington, a sophomore, had combined for zero interceptions. Last year, they combined for 12.

While the Raiders offense - and coaching staff - was decrepit, their defense developed and instilled some optimism.

Equipped with a new bright, young offensive mind, the Raiders will hope that Lane Kiffin can fix what is broken on this team.

Using Numbers To Break Down Letters: Offensive Line

Maybe the Oakland Raiders thought they were protecting David Carr. Maybe they just sucked really bad.

Actually, it's the latter.

The Raiders allowed 72 sacks last season, which was nine sacks clear of the second-highest total.

Robert Gallery, who the Raiders drafted to anchor the left side of their offensive line, was a monumental bust. Even former second-round pick, Jake Grove, didn't perform to expectations. Nobody did.

When the Raiders signed Aaron Brooks, their selling point to their fans was that Brooks was mobile and would more suited to avoid the rush.

That was false. Brooks got pummeled in Week One versus San Diego and was sacked seven times. He took such a beating that he was hurt by Week Two.

But when statue Andrew Walter came in, the offense declined even more. Walter also got sacked twice in Week One and was dropped another 44 times in eight starts.

Sacks can sometimes be a deceitful statistic because they don't account for the countless other times that the Raiders quarterbacks were pressure or drilled right after releasing the football.

There's no mincing words here; a turtle with arthritis could have broken through for a sack. When there are this many breaches in the front five, don't expect to get anything done offensively.

How's The League's Worst Offensive Line Coming Along?:

By default, it won't be worse. It simply can't get worse.

But on the flipside, outside of the boost of optimism/confidence they'll get from a new coach, the line doesn't look significantly better.

One important ingredient to a credible offensive line is consistency. Right now, in Oakland, there is more juggling going on than at the circus.

It looks like the final five will be Barry Sims, Robert Gallery, Jake Grove, Cooper Carlisle and Cornell Green. The good news is that a new zone-blocking scheme is being implemented by new o-line coach, Tom Cable, which means that this line should have a good second-half.

With zone-blocking schemes, the sum of the parts seems to play better than the individuals, which is a positive in the Raiders case. It will take them the first half of the season to adjust but they should turn the corner at some point this year.

Renewed Optimism:

Confidence may be one of the most underrated intangibles in sports and with the hiring of Kiffin, the Raiders have a renewed confidence.

Under Shell, they were like a rejected nerd who slouched over because his backpack was too heavy.

Since Kiffin's arrival, there are walking taller with their chest out.

Don't put much weight into their undefeated pres-season - the Raiders always play well in these exhibitions.

The Raiders need their offensive line to play cohesively. Until that happens, they won't get much better offensively.

They had the league's 29th-ranked rushing offense last year and although they added Dominic Rhodes and rookie Adimchinobie Echemandu, who has looked good in camp, their success will still be contingent on their blockers.

LaMont Jordan is still the best weapon out of the backfield. He's the best all-around back and is a pretty good receiver. I wouldn't trust Rhodes, who is serving a four-game suspension and played out of his mind in a contract year last year.

At receiver, the Raiders will get back Porter, who couldn't stand playing for Shell and Ronald Curry, who was injured again last season.

The Raiders also picked up former Lions' bust, Mike Williams, who has his weight issues under wraps and is expected to be a big part of this offense (mostly in the red zone). Williams thrived under Kiffin in college at USC.

The Raiders have targets, and as a matter of fact, plenty of them. Rookie tight end, Zach Miller, has the mixins of a classic tight end - just a solid, unspectacular pass catcher who finds the soft spots. He also has great hands.

Although this has been a weakness in previous years, it really isn't. It may be a middle of the pack group in comparison to the rest of the league, but it's not the bottom of the barrel.

Are Rich Gannon or Jeff Hostetler Available?:

On one hand, the Raiders QB situation is better than the past two seasons. On the other hand, that's like congratulating Monique for losing five pounds.

Forget Josh McCown, forget Andrew Walter and forget JaMarcus Russell (for this season). The best Raiders quarterback - and only hope - is Daunte Culpepper.

Culpepper is shaken and definitely doesn't have the confidence from three seasons ago, but he can still be decent. He can move the ball much better than McCown or Walter and gives this team their best chance to win.

He's experienced, which immediately gives him the leg up.

Can They Finish Above Kansas City?:

The first half of the Raiders season will be a struggle. They will need time to adjust to the new offense and zone-blocking scheme.

But on the flipside, they have basically played without an offense for two years, which means that if they don't commit a lot of giveaways, that will already be a good start.

The Raiders are a far superior team to Kansas City at every position except for running back and tight end.

Their defense, as a whole, is young, better and on the verge of improving on last year's performance.

They picked up Gerard Warred off of division rival, Denver, and he's a quality run-stuffer. In a rotation with Sands and Sapp, the Raiders should be content at tackle. They also added veteran safety, Donovin Darius, who is also stellar in run defense.

With Darius, Michael Huff and Stuart Schweigert, the Raiders have a very versatile trio of safeties.

Their defense is better than KC's but how much worse is their offense?

At this point, quite a bit. But factor this in: their offense is on the way up while the Chiefs offense is on the way down.

As long as Culpepper and the offensive line stay healthy, expect him to only get better as the season progresses. The same can be said for Porter and Curry, who are off down years.

The Raiders do have a good stable of backs and more depth at the position than the Chiefs, which means that once the blocking is up to speed, they'll run it better.

The Chiefs are heading in the opposite direction. Their offensive line is getting worse, their receiving corps is bare and they plan to insert Brodie Croyle as a starter at some point, which is a scary proposition.

Is a stretch? Maybe. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the Raiders finish above the Chiefs in the AFC West.

Biggest Weakness: Offensive Line - They are sticking with the same five guys to develop chemistry but it is just a matter of whether these guys are any good.

Offensive X-Factor: Daunte Culpepper - If the line strengthened, Culpepper could bring this offense up from "sell" to "don't buy".

Defensive X-Factor: Warren Sapp - He's shown up in fantastic shape and they need him to be a sack threat to keep attention off of Burgess.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

Now we've seen a lot of running backs come in during goal line situations and pick up valuable fantasy point, but how about a wide receiver? Usually it is tight ends in that spot, but in Oakland, it could be Mike Williams. He's so tall and is really tough to guard in red zone situations. With Porter and Curry on the field, there's no way that any opposing defense can cover Williams with a top-two corner, which might mean a high number of touchdowns for him. Also, take a look at Zach Miller, who is a sleeper candidate at tight end. He catches everything that is thrown his way.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "Hardcore Fantasy" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch it weekly on Saturdays at 12:00 PM ET.