* It appears as if the Braves and Padres are finally serious about carrying through with the Jake Peavy deal. The Braves have been players from the beginning and it seemed as if the Padres wanted to see just how much they could get from Atlanta by bringing other teams in the talks, such as the Cubs. But, really, I think San Diego knew that the best fit would be the Braves all along, they simply wanted to see if the Atlanta Braves would include top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson (they won't). Sure, there are other possible destinations for Peavy, who has a full no-trade clause, but I don't think any club can offer, or is willing to offer, a package similar to Atlanta's.

According to reports, the deal will be built around shortstop Yunel Escobar and outfielder Gorkys Hernandez. The Padres will also have their pick of one of two pitchers -- Charlie Morton or Jo Jo Reyes -- and another lower-level arm. Initially, there was some talk regarding Escobar and Jordan Schaefer, a center fielder in the Braves system who is widely regarded as one of the top position prospects in the minor leagues. It is unclear whether or not the Padres can get Schaefer back in as part of the deal, but it is possible they simply prefer the younger Hernandez.

San Diego needs pitching, that is for sure. If they can get two starters from the Braves along with Escobar and Schaefer/Hernandez, that will be a steal for them. Yes, Jake Peavy is an ace and he is a front line starter who will be locked up for five years at well below market price for a guy of his caliber. He is owed $60 million over the next five seasons and he is the type of pitcher who would be commanding a nine-figure deal if he were entering the free agent market this winter.

But the Padres really have no choice but to dump him. They aren't going to win with him here because they are more than a couple pieces away. Average arms play up in Petco Park, so they don't need to acquire top flight pitchers to be relevant in the NL West. But they have an opportunity to solidify part of the middle of their defense with two potential All-Stars in Escobar and Schaefer. Those two guys alone make this deal a good one for San Diego. As much as average pitching plays up in Petco Park, defense must be a focal point in such a big yard, and Escobar and Schaefer are both plus defenders. 

We could see this deal get done today sometime, but it all depends if the Padres are really ready to close the books on the Jake Peavy Era. It seems like they are a bit hesitant and that they don't want to be shortchanged in this deal, and they should be a bit skeptical. If they can get the aforementioned package from Atlanta, then they should go for it. But if those talks continue to stall, then they should just hang on to Peavy and continue to dangle him throughout the winter. With teams balking at the idea of throwing mega-dollars at a handful of free agent pitchers, acquiring five years of Peavy for $60 million will be quite an attractive option for many ball clubs. And let's face it. This is the Padres one chance to obtain some big pieces for their future since they have a premier arm locked up on a "bargain" deal. They shouldn't get cheated.


* With the Matt Holliday trade about finalized, the clock officially starts as to when Billy Beane will be shopping his brand new left fielder. There is some talk about Oakland actually having a long-term plan with Holliday, but those are fantasy assumptions. Holliday is represented by Scott Boras, and if he wouldn't agree to an extension with Colorado, he sure isn't going to agree to one with Oakland when he is one full season away from the biggest payday of his life. 

Holliday will be going to free agency and he will surely be too much for the A's, given all of the suitors that will be lined up to sign him (Yankees, anyone?). I suppose that Beane would be satisfied with the couple of draft picks he would receive if he holds onto Holliday and then watches him sign with another club next winter, but that would be a wasted opportunity. 

Beane has a chance to get half a season of production from Holliday, possibly putting the A's in a position of contention in 2009, and then deal him at the deadline and get back at least what he gave up for him, if not more. There will be a handful of teams willing to part with probably two legit hitters and a young arm or two. I can see the Dodgers as a highly interested club if they don't sign Manny Ramirez this winter. So in essence, Oakland is getting Holliday for free until July 31, 2009 when they get back similar pieces to the ones they sent to Colorado. What's not to like? 


* The New York Mets are free to go get Francisco Rodriguez at midnight tonight it looks like after Angels owner Arte Moreno all but said the Angels are going in a different direction with their off season plans. Moreno seems a bit irked that the two sides didn't sign the three year extension they had on the table at this time last year when K-Rod was ready to sign before turning it down after learning that the Yankees gave Mariano Rivera 3 years and $45 million, about $11 million more than the deal the Angels had on the table. Rodriguez has every reason to be interested in seeing what his maximum value is on the open market. He is twenty six years old and just broke the single-season save record (for whatever that's worth). 

But the thing Rodriguez fails to realize is that this hurts him while it really doesn't hurt the Angels. The Angels have bigger issues such as aggressively pursuing first baseman Mark Teixeira and seeking an upgrade in their starting rotation. Shelling out $60 million to Rodriguez would not be a wise investment for the Angels. Scot Shields or Jose Arrendondo are both capable of taking over the closer role, or they could go for a cheaper option such as Brian Fuentes or even, who knew, Trevor Hoffman. 

But now that the Mets, Tigers, Indians, and anyone else looking for a closer knows the Angels are out of the picture, those clubs are going to initially lower their offers. The Angels will still offer Rodriguez arbitration so that they get two compensation picks if he signs with another club. K-Rod may find that the one year of arbitration with the Angels is more attractive than any of the offers he gets on the free agent market because he will probably be disappointed when he sees the types of deals that are really offered.

Rodriguez is young and he has been consistent, but even with Rivera in his late-30s, they aren't even close to the same closers. Rodriguez has age and track record on his side, but he doesn't deserve Rivera money. I still think the Mets may go somewhere around 4 years and $48 million for K-Rod, and if they wait it out, that may very well be the best offer Rodriguez sees, and therefore it could land them their closer of the future. 


by: Teddy Mitrosilis
www.teddysportblog.blogspot.com

     

When we think of the best rivalries in baseball, only Yankees-Red Sox and Cubs-Cardinals can be spoken in the same sentence as Dodgers-Giants. Sure, there are plenty of great inter-division rivalries that we love to follow during the season, but these three are national, they are historic, they shape the game. The problem is that only two of them have really mattered in the past decade, while the other is merely forgotten because, well, there is no 'rivalry' between losers.

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have been dominant franchises, the Red Sox more prominent since the turn of the century while the Yankees dominated the '90s and a couple of years thereafter. The Red Sox have added two championships since the Yankees last appeared in the World Series and, thanks to a superior scouting and player development effort, are setup to be a premier franchise for years to come thanks to a young roster and a stacked farm system.

The St. Louis Cardinals restored a hungry baseball town with an improbable championship run in 2006, and they are only a couple arms away from battling with the Cubs for the NL Central every summer. We are well aware of the Cubs' championship drought, but they are a contender every year and there aren't many things comparable to summer baseball at Wrigley. The Cardinals come to town and the series is still the most important event in the city, regardless of the standings. Why? Because there's tradition, and both clubs have a reasonable chance of winning each year.

So what has happened to the war between two former East Coast teams when they picked up and chose to occupy the same state out West? Well not much, because neither have really mattered. The Dodgers had their moment in baseball's spotlight twenty years ago. The Giants rode Barry Bonds to a World Series date in 2002, only to squander a comfortable lead with nine outs to go against the Angels in Game 6, allowing the Angels to come back the next night and take Game 7 in Anaheim as well.

But that's it. That's all we got from two teams that are known for the fights and the bad blood and a national figure, known for much more than baseball (Jackie Robinson), deciding to prematurely retire instead of don the enemy's colors. There are still half-hearted "Beat L.A.!" chants in the Bay Area when the two clubs meet, and Dodger Stadium still rumbles somewhat when San Francisco makes the trek down I-5, but much of the hatred and energy is dormant. That could change quickly.
The Dodgers showed up in 2008 and used a mid-season acquisition of Manny Ramirez to turn their season around and reach the NLCS. How much of that was due to Ramirez? A lot, so where they stand if they fail to resign the slugger remains unclear. But the pieces are in place outside of Manny to produce a winner for a good number of years. 

Matt Kemp is a dynamic fit in centerfield and is a special power-speed talent that can turn into a huge run producer in the middle of the order. James Loney and andre Ethier and pure hitters who should hit for high average as well as some power and could join Matt Kemp to form the 3-4-5 part of the Dodgers order for the next five years (assuming Manny isn't there somewhere). Russell Martin is an above-average catcher who shouldn't be devalued after having a down season in 2008. He makes up a big part of the Dodgers' identity and attitude.

What makes good teams and what sustains good franchises is pitching, and the Dodgers have that too. Chad Billingsley didn't show up against the Phillies but he has developed into a true ace. Hiroki Kuroda has big time stuff and could prove to be even better next season after pitching his first full season in the big leagues. If you are any type of baseball fan, you should be excited about watching the development of young lefty Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw possesses the type of stuff that is rivaled by few in the big leagues, and it won't be fun coming to Dodger Stadium to face him and Billingsley in the next few years. Add in Jonathan Broxton, Corey Wade and some of the other young arms the Dodgers have in their system and they have the pieces to build from.

The Giants have been lousy ever since that trip to the World Series, but they surpassed expectations in 2008 after being predicted as possibly the worst team in baseball. We didn't think the Giants were going to be good, or even very promising, but we did think they had some pieces to forecast a brighter future, and looking back today, they are certainly there. Look, San Francisco has many problems, and major ones regarding their offensive attack. But there is hope here. Why? It all comes back to the one principle that makes winning teams: pitching.

The Giants have a group of good, young arms on their big leagues club, and there is more depth in the farm system than many care to know. Tim Lincecum may end up winning the Cy Young award for 2008, and he is the clear-cut ace of this staff at 23 years old. It is comical that handfuls of teams at the top of the 2006 draft passed on him due to concerns of his "size and ability to withstand a major league workload". In a game of surprises, pure stuff and talent are the only sure bets.

Behind Lincecum is Matt Cain who would garner more attention had his record been better this season (8-14). But, as we know, records are poor indicators of a pitcher's performance because they largely rely on other factors and the other members of the team and Cain was surely deprived of run support in San Francisco. Cain is still only 24 years old and has the stuff to be a Number One along with Lincecum. With young pitching at such a premium in the game, I wouldn't trade Cain for a guy like Prince Fielder, as some reports have suggested. 

Jonathan Sanchez is a promising lefty who showed some great stuff this season and we can only imagine he will improve in 2009. Slot him behind the aforementioned two and that is a tough trio. Now add in the possibility that the Giants are serious players in the CC Sabathia talks, and you can see what we have brewing. I don't think it is likely that the Giants make a huge offer to Sabathia given the fact that they are only two years in to the $126 million they shelled out to Barry Zito, but lets assume they did. 

Sabathia is from the Bay Area and has said that he prefers to pitch close to home and that he would love to hit in the National League. If the tie of being close to home is strong enough as to where he would turn considerably more dollars that a team like the Yankees would offer, then San Francisco makes perfect sense. Add Sabathia to the front of that rotation to take some pressure off of Tim Lincecum, and this Giants rotation vaults to one of the best in baseball. And say what you want about Zito, but I am not completely convinced that he can't pitch at a quality level in the big leagues.

I like my chances if Barry Zito is my fifth starting pitcher. I still think he will rebound and return some value to the Giants after signing that huge deal. Now, he will never come close to making those dollars worth it for San Francisco, but he still has a chance to make a positive impact on this club and on this city and pitch like he once won a Cy Young. With improved command of his fastball, Zito becomes Jamie Moyer with more stuff. And Moyer posted a 3.71 ERA in almost 200 innings this season in a tougher division.

What is exciting beyond the Giants pitching staff is the prospects they have in their farm system. They have one of the best young lefthanders in the minors in Madison Bumgarner who leads a stable of promising arms, and they just drafted their catcher of the future, Buster Posey, in the first round who will bring a plus-bat to the catcher position. The Giants need to start to assemble some hitters but they have a couple on the farm and, more importantly, they have the highly-valued trading chips in their pitching prospects to swing deals for big sluggers without breaking up the core of their big league rotation.

How much of a resurgence will be due to a typically weak division? That's unsure. But Arizona and Colorado both have a ton of young talent to build from and San Diego is the only team that has reached major-rebuilding mode. The pieces have begun to emerge both in Los Angeles and San Francisco, with the Dodgers' group further along than the Giants'. But what was once one of baseball's most storied rivalries, all of the history has been sunk somewhere in the Pacific Ocean between Alcatraz and Hollywood due to perennial losers. With great young pitching stabilizing both clubs, we could be in for some old school Dodgers-Giants baseball very shortly. 

by: Teddy Mitrosilis
www.teddysportblog.com

As the clocks turned back, we continue to head forward into baseball's off-season not even a week after the Philadelphia Phillies hoisted the World Series trophy in their champagne-soaked clubhouse. Much of the baseball world is still putting away their umbrellas from a World Series that will be remembered just as much for the elements as the baseball, but as the GM meetings take place this week in Dana Point, California, the stage is set for what should be a grandiose hot-stove season. Big names already fill the trading block and this winter's free agent market is much deeper than the one we skimmed through last year. But, naturally, we have more questions than answers.

Where there is Scott Boras there are contract negotiations, and these meetings will be practically run by the man who controls some of the biggest names in the game. Boras has built a reputation as a tough negotiator and an agent that will seek top dollar with a vengeance, and all indications say that his clients will not be the ones affected by the weak economy. The baseball market is as strong as ever, and the top prizes will still get their money. Sure, a Jake Peavy trade could take place at these meetings, but that is unlikely. With free agents not allowed to sign with other teams until November 14, the GM meetings are more staring contest than negotiation.

But, make no mistake about it, deals are being lined up and clubs are setting their sights on prime targets. For every player who is wondering where his family will live in 2009 and beyond, there is a club who wonders which man will fill left field or take a spot in their starting rotation. The biggest man on the market is none other than CC Sabathia. Sabathia showed his heart, durability, and professionalism after being traded from the Cleveland Indians to the Milwaukee Brewers while lifting the Brewers into the playoffs by way of his broad shoulders and electric arm.

The Brewers are outmatched in their quest for Sabathia, but they have pulled together every last bratwurst to go along with their $100 million offer. The Brewers are hoping to parlay that $100 million into five or six years of service from Sabathia, and that simply won't happen given the other clubs who will be active in the market. Barry Zito set the bar when he signed with the San Francisco Giants two winters ago for $126 million. The then-biggest deal ever for a pitcher was broken a year later when the Minnesota Twins shipped Johan Santana to the New York Mets, who promptly locked up the southpaw for $137.5 million.

After turning the National League into a three month bullpen session, Sabathia will crush the mark set by Santana and the Mets. So how much are we talking? It's safe to say that talks will open up around six years, $150 million. Sabathia is from Northern California and has made it known that he would prefer to pitch closer to home. The Giants could make a pass at him but that doesn't seem likely with five years of Zito's contract still to deal with. The Angels and Dodgers could be suitors, but both clubs are equally interested in pursuing big-time hitters. The Padres, Mariners, and Diamondbacks don't have the resources to commit the amount of dollars Sabathia will ask for.

Where does that leave us? That leaves Sabathia on the doorstep of the New York Yankees. Hank Steinbrenner has made it known that the Yankees will be going hard after Sabathia after watching his club miss the playoffs for the first time during the Jeter Era due to an inability to pitch with the best teams in baseball. With New York opening up the Taj Mahal of baseball stadiums next season, it only makes sense that they have a capable star to send to the mound on Opening Day. The Yankees will gleefully outbid any other club on the market, even if that means bulldozing a full Manhattan block to park Sabathia's Palace in the middle of the bright lights. The only question that remains is whether or not Sabathia really wants to play in that type of market. My guess is that he certainly does for $150+ million, and therefore he will be wearing pinstripes next season.

The other big free agent pitchers on the market include A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster, and Francisco Rodriguez. Burnett is as electric as they come, but how many teams will be willing to go beyond, say, three years on a guy who boasts a horrifying medical record? We're not so sure. Burnett lives on the East Coast and therefore has a pull there, but he has mentioned an interest in playing for the St. Louis Cardinals as well. The Yankees could certainly be the front runner to land Burnett considering the rather unknown quantities named Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. The New York Mets would be interested, but they have multiple bullpen issues to solve as well as adding another outfield bat. 

The Red Sox certainly have the money to go after Burnett, but after picking up the 2009 option on Tim Wakefield and interested in possibly adding a premier hitter to their club, are they going to be willing to shell out $15 million a year for a barking arm? Unless Burnett is open to heading West where the Dodgers and Angels would be bidders, we could see the Atlanta Braves put together an offer to haul in the right hander if they cannot come to an agreement with the San Diego Padres and trade for Jake Peavy.

Derek Lowe is an interesting name who will be in high demand this winter given his pedigree and clean medical history. Lowe, who will turn 36 next June, will have a number of offers considering his track record of success, but there probably will not be many long offers. Three years sounds about right for Lowe, but I can see a team going three years at $15 million per year, with a fourth year coming as a club option that is coupled with a hefty buyout tag. Not only has Lowe never been to the disabled list while in the big leagues, but the fact that he is a sinker-ball pitcher automatically increases his longevity. Lowe will be able to be effective with his sink and movement even if he loses some velocity in the coming years. A number of clubs will be after him, but the Dodgers should make him a priority, or else they will be looking a little thin at the top of their rotation with Chad Billingsley and Huroki Kuroda.

Ryan Dempster exceeded all expectations as the Cubs moved him from closer to starter in 2008, and the All-Star has made himself a lot of money. There is no reason why Dempster shouldn't be back with the Cubs next season; it makes sense for both sides. Dempster will turn 32 next May and he is in line for a four-year deal, probably somewhere between $50-60 million. Dempster did not do himself any favors by throwing up a stinker against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, but his entire body of work in 2008 should not be overshadowed by one lousy start. The Cubs need Dempster back to fit in alongside Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden, both of whom had arm issues last season.

The free agent market offers two quality closers in Frankie Rodriguez and Brian Funetes. Funetes is the poor man's K-Rod, but due to the high price tag that comes with Rodriguez and his record-setting season, Fuentes may have more overall suitors to choose from. The Yankees, surprise surprise, would be interested in bringing in Fuentes to set-up for Mariano Rivera, and it is likely they make the best offer. There are only two teams that make a lot of sense to me regarding Rodriguez -- the Angels and Mets.

The Angels would like to bring back the kid that burst onto the big league stage in September of 2002 and then dominated October while providing the Angels an electric reliever in front of Troy Percival throughout their championship run. The question is whether or not what Rodriguez is seeking -- there are reports of five years, $75 million -- will be in line with what the Angels have in mind. The Angels would rather spend the big bucks on first baseman Mark Teixeira or on the starting rotation, and although they do have other options in-house in Scot Shields and Jose Arrendondo, their typically strong bullpen would take a hit if they let Rodriguez walk.

The Mets make the most sense to land the 26-year-old Venezuelan native for two reasons: 1) they have the money, 2) their bullpen has been their demise. Don't forget, the Mets have seats to fill as well as they open the new Citi Field and Rodriguez would be a nice treat for the fans as he trots out of the pen in the ninth inning to save an Opening Day win for Johan Santana. The Mets still have to pay Billy Wagner next year, but he may miss all of 2009 with shoulder problems. Aaron Heilman may be the "best" in-house option to fill the closer role, but he is better suited to be a middle or set-up guy.

Whether you are in Boston or L.A., whether you love Manny Ramirez or you loathe him, you will still have an eye stuck to his off-season negotiations. Ramirez is the biggest bat on the market, even given the fact that Manny will turn 37 next May. After watching Ramirez hit close to .400 after putting on Dodger Blue and lifting that franchise to the NLCS, any club who says they wouldn't want that is lying. Of course, Manny comes with baggage and there will only be a small handful of teams that are capable of providing the dollars that it will take to sign Boras' alpha dog. Manny is an oddity, but he is an oddity that can rake, and rake he will until he simply gets tired of it. 

Both New York clubs could be in on Ramirez, but I still see the Dodgers as the front-runner to land his bat. The Dodgers undoubtedly got drunk on the Manny Kool-Aid, and therefore it would not be surprising to see them put down an offer along the lines of three years, $80 million to live in "Mannywood" for a little bit longer. The fans loved the dreadlocks gimmick that comes along with the family fun at the ballpark, and owner Frank McCourt will not have a justifiable excuses if Ramirez is not playing in Los Angeles next season. And after seeing the impact Ramirez had at the plate and in the clubhouse, it is hard to argue that a bat of his caliber is not what the Dodgers need the most this winter. 

Mark Teixeira will probably make the most money this winter, as his age (29 next April), premium bat, and Gold Glove defense at first base make him a prime candidate for an 8-year deal. The Angels should be writing Teixeira's check as we speak, given the fact that the positives of having him in their lineup for a full season will outnumber the negatives of missing out on a top-flight starting pitcher. But a haul of Teixeira and Ryan Dempster doesn't seem unreasonable, and that is quite a nice winter. We will also hear a ton of talk regarding the Rockies' Matt Holliday in the coming weeks, but I see Colorado hanging on to Holliday and trying to make a push in the NL West if they can't get the type or number of prospects that they will seek for a premium slugger. The Rockies don't have much of a chance to sign Holliday once he hits the free agent market next winter, but they aren't simply going to give him away for the sake of saying at least they got three minor leaguers for him. I would imagine that they have to acquire some big league-ready pieces.

This is only Week 1 of what is going to be a festive couple of months as we head towards the Holidays. There will be trades and there will be a ton of free agent names relocating, more than we mentioned here. The Grade A talent will get the big-money deals regardless, but I think this may be a winter where we see dollars and years scaled back even more on guys with predominantly poor medical histories given the fact that clubs have to minimize risk more than ever now given the nature of the economy. Sabathia, Ramirez, and Teixeira are going to get what they ask for, but guys like Burnett, Frankie Rodriguez, and Derek Lowe, although they will be in high demand, may see that the pot of gold isn't as large as they had hoped. Regardless, none of these men will be struggling to put presents under the tree come Christmas, and there shouldn't be many clubs who head to spring training empty handed.


by: Teddy Mitrosilis
www.teddysportblog.blogspot.com