The AFC seems to be a bit easier to predict than the NFC, especially the division winners.  In the AFC South, I could see any of those teams finishing second through fourth, but I'm picking the Texans as my surprise team for 2009, as I believe this will finally be the season that they get over the hump.  I'm going with New England to reach the Super Bowl, but San Diego getting there wouldn't surprise me in the least.

AFC EAST

1.      New England Patriots:  Does everyone believe that the Patriots are going to light up the scoreboard this season?  You know Coach Bill Belichick is steaming over missing the playoffs last season, and with QB Tom Brady healthy, he is just looking to maul his opponents.  I can see a repeat of 2007 this season, not going undefeated, but blowing out quite a few opponents.

Strongest position:  Wide Receiver, any position where you have Randy Moss and Wes Welker as your top two, with Joey Galloway providing depth, has to be your best.

Area of Concern:  Running Back, for fantasy purposes anyway.  They have Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, and Sammy Morris.  It can drive a fantasy owner crazy trying to figure out which one will start from week to week.

 

2.      Miami Dolphins:  The Dolphins are a solid team.  They have a QB in Chad Pennington who knows how to control a game, a strong RB tandem in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and a solid TE in Anthony Fasano.  Now if they only had a WR or two that you could trust, this team might actually be dangerous.  The problem for the Dolphins is this - they had a great season in 2008, but playing an easy schedule.  This season, they may be a better team, but may not have the wins to show for it due to the tougher opponents and the return of Tom Brady.  Bigger problem for fantasy owners is that the Dolphins love backup QB Chad Henne and if Pennington or the Dolphins were to get off to a slow start, the switch to Henne could happen a season early.  And that could make the 2009 campaign a transition year.

Strongest Position:  Running Back, with or without the Wildcat package, the Dolphins have a strong ground game led by Brown.  Ricky Williams, Patrick Cobbs, and Lex Hilliard provide adequate depth, with Williams seeing the bulk of the carries behind Brown.

Area of Concern:  Wide Receivers, Ted Ginn Jr. is the number one WR but he has yet to step up and prove he can be such a player.  The Dolphins selected Brian Hartline and Patrick Turner in 2009 draft, but neither has shown enough in camp to warrant an early selection in fantasy drafts.  Greg Camarillo has yet to show the initial burst coming off the line of scrimmage after having surgery for a torn ACL suffered last season.  Someone needs to step up for Pennington.

 

3.      Buffalo Bills:  The Bills may have made the biggest off-season splash by signing WR Terrell Owens, but does anyone think his addition is enough to get them over the hump?  They want to run the no-huddle offense, which is all fine and good, but that leaves your defense on the field for too long a time.  RB Marshawn Lynch has been suspended for the first three games which leaves the running game in the hands of Fred Jackson.  The release of Dominic Rhodes proves how much faith the Bills have in Jackson  Too many questions here to pick them any higher than third.

Strongest Position:  Wide Receiver, TO may not be as great as he once was, but being teamed up with Lee Evans will still give the opposing team secondary a big headache.

Area of Concern:  Offensive Line, QB Trent Edwards is going to be running for his life behind this unit.  TO may want the deep ball, but it's hard to see Edwards having enough time to get it to him consistently.

 

4.      New York Jets:  Love new Head Coach Rex Ryan and the attitude he brings, but still, the Jets are a work in progress.  Starting QB Mark Sanchez from the outset is probably the right thing to do, not like Kellen Clemens is going to be the next Joe Namath, but he is sure to have his share of growing pains.

Strongest Position:  Running Back, any team with Tomas Jones, Leon Washington, and Shonn Greene should make this the focus of their attack.

Area of Concern:  Quarterback, you never really know what you have in a rookie QB until the bullets are live.  Sanchez may be the real thing, but it's a rarity, not the norm, when a rookie QB takes a team to the playoffs. 

AFC North

1.      Pittsburgh Steelers:  The defending champions should once again be heard from in the AFC.  Offensively, they seem to be a team on the upswing with an emerging number one WR in Santonio Holmes and RB Rashard Mendenhall returning from injury.  The Steelers are a physical football team, and to beat them, you have to match their physicality, and not many teams can do that.

Strongest Position:  Linebacker, with James Harrison and James Farrior, how could this not be?

Area of Concern:  Offensive Line, the Steelers escaped last season with an average line at best.  One has to wonder how many more big shots QB Ben Roethlisberger can take without being forced to miss some games.

 

2.      Baltimore Ravens:  Will losing LB Bart Scott and Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan take some of the zing out of the Ravens defense?  Unlikely, with LB Ray Lewis and S Ed Reed still around.  The Ravens are the one team that can match the Steelers physicality, but just don't have the offensive punch to back it up.

Strongest Position:  Linebacker, they may have lost Scott, but still have Lewis and Terrell Suggs.

Area of Concern:  Wide Receiver, you would think the Ravens would've solved this problem by now, but no.  At least Derrick Mason didn't retire.

 

3.      Cincinnati Bengals:  I was tempted to pick the Bengals for second place as I'm not all that high on the Ravens, but with QB Carson Palmer nursing a sprained ankle and getting little to no action in the pre-season, I've decided to stick with my initial thought.

Strongest Position:  Wide Receiver, I know that they let T. J. Houshmandzadeh go to free agency (franchising K Shayne Graham for some reason), but they still have Chad Ochocinco, Chris Henry, and they signed Laveraneus Coles.

Area of Concern:  Running Back, would you trust Cedric Benson again?

 

4.      Cleveland Browns:  Talk about a team that looks like they are teetering on the edge.  It's difficult to see an upside for Cleveland right now.  QB is still unsettled.  Should it be Brady Quinn, or should it be Derek Anderson?  My bet is Quinn will get the starting nod, but I have a hard time believing Anderson never sees another meaningful snap for Cleveland.  If WR Braylon Edwards didn't have a severe case of the drops last season, we might not even be talking about this.

Strongest Position:  Do they have one?  To many question marks all around.

Area of Concern:  Wide Receiver, already talked about Edwards and his case of butterfingers, but 2009 draft picks Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi have failed to impress so far.

AFC South

1.      Indianapolis Colts:  The 2009 season will feel a little different for the Colts without Head Coach Tony Dungy and WR Marvin Harrison, but Peyton Manning, WR Reggie Wayne, and TE Dallas Clark still lead a potent passing attack and Indy is sure not to have any problems scoring points.  WR Anthony Gonzalez will be the main beneficiary of Harrison's departure and could be in for a big season.

Strongest Position:  Quarterback, as long as Manning is behind center, the Colts are a threat in the AFC.

Area of Concern:  Secondary, not that this should come as a surprise, but S Bob Sanders is already banged up with a bad knee, and once again it looks like it's a not a question of if, but how many games he misses.

 

2.      Houston Texans:  I'm a big believer in the Texans this season.  They will finally get over the hump and make the post-season.  To make my prediction a reality however, QB Matt Schaub has to remain healthy.  If he does, all the pieces are in place.  The running game is solid with Steve Slaton, WRs are outstanding with Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, and TE Owen Daniels is a star waiting to happen.  With DE Mario Williams and LB DeMeco Ryans leading the defense this unit can hold its own as well.

Strongest Position:  Wide Receiver, already mentioned Johnson and Walter, throw in Andre Davis and Jacoby Jones and you have a formidable unit.

Area of Concern:  Defensive Line, another pass rushing threat besides Williams would really help.

 

3.      Tennessee Titans:  The loss of DT Albert Haynesworth will be felt in Tennessee.  Their defense and running game was how they won games in 2008 and losing a big piece of that puzzle is sure to come back and haunt them.  I'm not sold on QB Kerry Collins being able to repeat the success he had last season as well.  There will be more pressure on him this season and the Titans still need to figure out if Vince Young is the heir apparent or if he will never have the maturity to handle the position.

Strongest Position:  Running Back, Chris Johnson and LenDale White are quite a one-two punch.  Odd thing, White losing so much weight may actually hurt him as he may not be as good in short yardage situations.  Perhaps Johnson will get more looks at the goal line.

Area of Concern:  Wide Receiver, just not sold on Nate Washington being the answer to all their problems on the outside.

 

4.      Jacksonville Jaguars:  They are not a bad team, just play in a strong division.  The argument could certainly be made that they are the third or even second best team in the South, and if they had a better passing attack I might be convinced.  WR Torry Holt may not be their biggest question, but he's not the answer either.

Strongest Position:  Running Back, even with the loss of Fred Taylor, the Jaguars are loaded here with Maurice Jones-Drew, Greg Jones, and rookie Rashad Jennings.

Area of Concern: Wide Receiver, this seems to be an ongoing theme with the Jaguars.  Year after year they are weak at WR.  Holt is well past his prime and playing on grass full-time may take away what little advantage he has left.

AFC West

1.      San Diego Chargers:  When Denver traded Jay Cutler to Chicago for Kyle Orton and draft picks, the biggest winner wasn't the Broncos or the Bears, it was the Chargers.  They should cake walk towards a division title and may only be playing the 2009 regular season to see if they can get home field advantage and a first round bye in the playoffs.

Strongest Position:  Running back, LaDainian Tomlinson may not be the back he once was, but he's still better than average, and getting spelled by Darren Sproles may only help prolong his career.

Area of Concern:  Linebacker, not so much as a unit, but if Shawne Merriman can come back and be anywhere near the player he was before knee surgery than look out, the Chargers may be the favorite in the AFC to reach the Super Bowl.  Merriman being arrested for domestic abuse on Saturday should be an interesting story to follow.

 

2.      Denver Broncos:  In the AFC South, you can roll the dice to pick second through fourth because they all are good teams, the reverse is true here.  Denver has had possibly the worst off-season in history.  They fired Head Coach Mike Shanahan (he of the two Super Bowl trophies), traded franchise QB Jay Cutler, signed Correll Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan in free agency even though they have a plethora of backs on the roster, drafted RB Knowshon Moreno in the first round even though they are desperate for defensive help, and then have to deal with the mess that is WR Brandon Marshall.  Looking at all this, I have to wonder why I'm picking them second.

Strongest Position:  Wide Receiver, if Marshall can keep his head in the game and stop worrying about his contract, he and Eddie Royal make for an imposing duo.

Area of Concern:  Defensive Line/Linebackers, switching to a 3-4 defense and not having the personnel is usually a recipe for disaster.

 

3.      Kansas City Chiefs:  Perhaps new Head Coach Todd Haley can breathe some life into the Chiefs.  He certainly started out strong by trading for QB Matt Cassel.  We'll find out real quick if Cassel is a franchise QB or just someone who took advantage of playing with Moss and Welker in New England.

Strongest Position:  Quarterback, Cassel should at least be adequate, but even if he's not, Tyler Thigpen is still on the roster, and fantasy owners know how good he was last season. 

Area of Concern:  Defensive Line, opposing QBs have been knows to order a pizza while going back to pass in the pocket.

 

4.      Oakland Raiders:  Now we finally get to the most dysfunctional team in the NFL.  What can you say about the Raiders and Owner Al Davis?  They like to do things the unconventional way.  Whether that means drafting a WR in the top of the first round that many had at the bottom in Darrius Heyward-Bey or having your Head Coach break a chair over the face of one of his assistant coaches and then tell the assistant that he will no longer have a job - you have to love the Raiders "commitment to excellence".

Strongest Position:  Running Back, Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush give the Raiders quite a few options.

Area of Concern:  Wide Receivers, Heyward-Bey might be the answer eventually, but I kind of doubt it.

WildCard Teams: Houston and Baltimore 

Super Bowl Representative:

New England

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