About Me:
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I I am a disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan, whose favorite player is still Brett Favre. I am the Senior NFL Writer for www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. Check out our site for the best fantasy football advice.
About Me:
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I I am a disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan, whose favorite player is still Brett Favre. I am the Senior NFL Writer for www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. Check out our site for the best fantasy football advice.
About Me:
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I I am a disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan, whose favorite player is still Brett Favre. I am the Senior NFL Writer for www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. Check out our site for the best fantasy football advice.
Here are my thoughts on the fifth week of the NFL. Please remember there are 32 teams in the NFL, there is no way I could mention every big play made by every player in every game. If you want to talk about your favorite team or player, just leave a comment about it and I while address it.
MVP of the Week: Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo was at a crossroads in this NFL season. The Cowboys were just 2-2 and he hadn't thrown a touchdown in two games. Furthermore, his team was losing to the 0-4 Kansas City Chiefs, one of the worst teams in the NFL. Romo stepped up in that game and finished 20 for 34 with 351 yards, two touchdowns, zero picks, and a QB rating of 113.7 in Dallas's 26-20 OT win. Dallas's star receiver earns player of the week honors as well, but it wasn't the injured Roy Williams. Instead WR Miles Austin recorded 10 catches for 250 yards and two touchdowns, including the game winning touchdown in OT. Finally, give major credit to Cincinnati Bengals RB Cedric Benson, who became the first running back since 2007 to rush for 100 yards on the Baltimore Ravens, as he recorded 27 carries for 120 yards and one touchdown in the Bengals 17-14 upset of the Ravens. It looks as if the former top five pick of the Chicago Bears has finally found a home in the NFL.
Loser of the Week: The City of Buffalo and its fans that paid hard earned United States currency to watch the 6-3 thriller with the Cleveland Browns. They should be given a refund; they expected to watch NFL football, but were instead defrauded by people impersonating NFL players and coaches. I'll have more on that game and the participants later. San Francisco 49ers CB Dre Bly deserves a mention for celebrating an interception when his team was down 35-10, only to have WR Roddy White strip the ball and recover it, allowing the Atlanta Falcons to score again. Not sure what there was to celebrate at that time, I know there was no celebrating after the 45-10 defeat. Finally, the Jacksonville Jaguars for going to Seattle and not only losing, but losing 41-0 to the Seahawks. They allowed four touchdown passes to QB Matt Hasselbeck, who had played because of a broken rib since Week Two.
Game of the Week: My pick would go to the Monday Night Game, a game in which the Miami Dolphins won 31-27. The score was 13-10 heading into the fourth quarter, but the teams combined to score 35 points in the fourth quarter. The Jets took a 27-24 lead on the Dolphins with about 5:00 minutes left on a Thomas Jones run, but the Dolphins scored the last points on a Ronnie Brown touchdown run with just six second left in the game.
The Bay of Pigs: This is the easiest pick I have ever had to make. The Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills played to a 6-3 final, with the Browns "winning." Making matters worse, Derek Anderson, the "winning" QB went (Get ready for this) 2 for 17 for 23 yards, zero touchdowns, one pick and a QB rating of 15.07. To put that in perspective, Miami Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown was one for two with 21 yards in the Monday Night Game. A running back almost out passed a NFL quarterback on just two pass plays.
I don't know what is more embarrassing, 1) That an alleged NFL team had a starting QB finish with two completions and 23 yards or 2) That an alleged NFL team lost to a quarterback that had two completions for 23 yards. In my mind these two guys, Browns Head Coach Eric Mangini and Bills Head Coach Dick Jaruon are easily two of the worst coaches in the NFL, which is quite a statement seeing Jim Zorn still has a job in Washington and Tom Cable still has a job in Oakland, something I will address later.
The Browns are 31st in yards gained and 30th in points per game. In three of their five contests they have been held under seven points. Mangini spent an entire off-season evaluating Brady Quinn and Anderson to see which quarterback gave his team the best chance to win. He decided on Quinn, only to go to Anderson three games later. Now what do you do? Do you bench the quarterback that led your team to its first victory or do you bench that same quarterback that completed two passes for 23 yards? Mangini has decided to remain with Anderson for now. What does Quinn have to do to lose his job once he gets it back, throw for 15 yards?
The Browns are short on talent and that was the case before Mangini got there, but Mangini has made so many mistakes and so alienated his team with the mandatory rookie bus trip this summer and the $1500.00 fine for an unpaid bottle of water at the hotel that there is little reason to believe that he will ever turn this around. This quarterback situation and the 23 passing yards are just the latest example of his shortcomings as a NFL head coach.
As for the Bills, this is the worst of the worst. We talked about losing to Anderson and that effort, but at least Cleveland fans didn't have to watch it in person. This happened in front of the Bills fans. If I were a Bills fan they could play the rest of the season in Toronto; to pay hard earned money to watch a team lose to that kind of team with that kind of performance is unacceptable.
The Bills don't have the most talent in the league, but QB Trent Edwards, RB Marshawn Lynch, RB Fred Jackson, WR Terrell Owens and WR Lee Evans have talent and they should be scoring more than three points against the Browns. This team should not be ranked 26th in points scored and 25th in yards gained. Owens has probably lost a step, but to be averaging 2.4 catches for 40.4 yards per game is also unacceptable, why did they bring him in if they aren't going to throw him the ball. It isn't like anyone else is doing better. They used to joke that Michael Jordan couldn't average 20.00 points per game for Dean Smith's Carolina Tar Heal squad; well future Hall of Fame WR Jerry Rice couldn't have had 500 yards receiving in Dick Jauron's offense in the prime of his career. If you have any fantasy players playing in these offenses rid yourselves of them by any means necessary; they will bring you too much heartache the rest of the season.
The Mike Martz Award: Sorry I'm being so negative, I promise my impressions will be positive, but I have one more bad coach to blast. At least Mangini and Juaron haven't gone Mike Tyson on anyone this year, allegedly. If I'm a Raider fan (assuming there are any left) I would want to punch head coach Tom Cable for the play calling in the 44-7 loss to the New York Giants. His Raiders attempted 13 pass attempts that game, which is amazing seeing they were down 31-7 at the half. It tied two other franchises for the fewest attempts by a losing team and was a record for teams in the Live Ball Era, which began in 1978.
Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell is not a young quarterback anymore. Russell has started 21 games in his NFL career. Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers have started 20 games. Rookie Mark Sanchez has started five games and his fellow rookie Matthew Stafford has started four games. Does anyone believe for a moment that in a 44-7 loss where those guys played the entire game they would have just 13 pass attempts? Russell is not a seventh round pick that they are slowly trying to develop. He was the first pick in the draft and is being paid a $68.5 million dollar contract with $31.5 million dollars guaranteed. He was expected to turn this team around, especially by his third year in the NFL. If the best he can do is 13 passes the Raiders need to admit that was the worst money they ever spent and rid themselves of Russell and start over, again. They could go with veteran QB Jeff Garcia... oh wait; they can't because they cut him just before the season. Why would you want an experienced backup to come in and try to spark a rally when you can just pass 13 times and concede defeat? If they wanted to go in a different direction their choice would be Bruce Gradkowski, who has also proven over the years that he is not a good starter. As bad as Russell has been, he is there best option, which is a very situation for Raiders fans and the organization.
Furthermore, they didn't even run the ball well. Despite trailing 31-7 at the half and the Giants wanting the Raiders to run the ball to consume clock, the Raiders gained 60 yards on 25 rushes for an average of 2.4 yards per rush. Only the Raiders can find a way to fail like this and it starts will owner Al Davis. Davis is a legend in the game and one of the most important figures in the history of the NFL. His team is a circus right now and all signs point to it continuing that way if he stays in charge. They have changed head coaches, players, and coordinators; Davis has been the one constant in this awful equation. I don't know if Cable is a good coach or a bad coach because of the situation he is currently in, but based on his play calling Sunday, I'm going with a very bad head coach. If it is true that he punched his assistant Randy Hanson, Commissioner Godell should go after him the same way he went after PacMan Jones, Michael Vick and every other problem child that has been suspended by the NFL. There is no excuse for that type of conduct.
That's a topic for another day. What everyone should be able to agree on is that was the worst piece of play calling by a team that was behind; I have never seen a coaching staff quit on a game like I saw the Raiders do on Sunday. The Raiders are too proud of a franchise to have reached this level and it is my hope that the Raiders will become competitive again. The NFL is a better league when the Radiers are at least relevant.
Injury Report: Good news for the New England Patriots, LT Matt Light does not appear to have ligament damage in his ankle or knee, but it is still uncertain when he will return. It is important for the Patriots to have him protecting QB Tom Brady's blindside. Pittsburgh Steelers DE Aaron Smith has a shoulder injury that could keep him sidelined, which is critical, because he is veteran player that stops the run well and can put pressure on the quarterback. Finally, the Buffalo Bills lost two linebacker s Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Buggs for the season, which further hurts a linebacker core that has been devastated by injuries.
Overall Impressions of Week Four:
1) I was wrong about the Denver Broncos - On to more positive commentary. I did a very good job of picking the last place teams, nailing six of the eight teams that currently reside in last place (Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams, Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns). Like most people I didn't see the Tennessee Titans sitting at 0-5 right now, instead pegging the Jacksonville Jaguars for last place. My evaluation of the Broncos was the worst of all my picks; I had them pegged for a 3-13 to 5-11 team that could potentially finish behind Oakland. Instead, Denver currently stands at 5-0 and in sole possession of first place in the AFC. There is no way they will finish behind Oakland or Kansas City right now, but rather they will be looking to battle the San Diego Chargers for the AFC West.
The biggest change in Denver has been their defense. The Broncos are second in yards allowed, fifth in passing yards allowed, sixth in passing yards allowed and most importantly first in points allowed. The Broncos were 29th in yards allowed, 26th in passing yards allowed, 27th in rushing yards allowed and 30th in points allowed in 2008.
It's possible to turn around a defense that quickly, one that I remember vividly is the 2000 to 2001 improvement of the St. Louis Rams defense, which went from 23rd in total yards, 27th in passing yards, 13th in rushing yards, and 31st in points allowed to third in yards allowed, 11th in passing yards, third in rushing yards, and seventh in points allowed. I'm sure there are others, with the draft and free agency it is possible to produce a lot of turnover to an underachieving unit. If the right decisions are made, change can happen very quickly.
The difference between the Rams and the Broncos is that the Rams had a high powered offense to hang their hat on. 1999-2001 was the Greatest Show on Turf's peak days; they just had to fix the defense. The Denver Broncos also had a high powered offense, but rookie Head Coach Josh McDaniels was not able to keep that intact. Everyone knows what happened between QB Jay Cutler and McDaniels; that disagreement sent the disgruntled QB to Chicago. Later WR Brandon Marshall was suspended for the preseason for conduct detrimental to the team.
I'm not surprised the Broncos were able to turnaround their defense in as much as I am surprised that they were able to do that with all the perceived negative things that happened on offense. The Broncos had an offense that was second in yards and 16th in points, but with QB Kyle Orton replacing Cutler and Marshall unhappy no one expected them to amount to much on offense. This was an 8-8 team that looked to be headed in the wrong direction, led by a coach that appeared he was going to be in the NFL for just one year.
Instead, their defense has been the most dominating defense in the NFL. They are giving up only 8.6 points per game, Indianapolis and the New York Giants are tied for second with 14.2. The Dallas Cowboys have averaged 28.2 points per game and have a 3-1 record in their four games against opponents not from Denver. They scored 10 points in their 17-10 loss in Denver. The Cincinnati Bengals have averaged 23.5 points per game and have a 4-0 record in their four games against opponents not from Denver. They scored 7 points in their 12-7 home loss to Denver. The New England Patriots have averaged 21.5 points per game and have a 3-1 record in their four games against opponents not from Denver. They were held to 17 points in an overtime game. These are three pretty good offenses that Denver was able to frustrate. It is impossible to say that Denver has a good defense, because of the opposition they have played. They have taken three offenses that have been effective against other teams and shut them down. Denver's defense has been fixed and it is for real.
The concern for Denver is can they keep winning with an offense that ranks 21st in points scored at 19.8 points per game. They probably can, because their offense is gaining a lot of yards, their 376.8 yards per game gained ranks sixth in the NFL, thanks to a rushing attack that is gaining a 139.0 yards per game, good for 5th in the NFL. If a team can run the ball, control the clock and play great defense they are going to win a lot of games in the NFL.
You could have argued Denver was just lucky when they only a 12-7 win in their opener against a Cincinnati squad that people also underestimated. It is impossible to be lucky five games in a row in the NFL. At 5-0 this is going to be a formidable team the rest of the way with a defense that nobody is going to want to face. Time will tell if that will translate into a deep playoff run, but there are definitely a lot of good things going on in Denver, something I never expected that I would say when the season began.
2) Is Peyton Manning playing the best football of his career - I keep hearing from people that Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning is playing the best football of his career. One of those people is Jeff Fisher, the head coach of the Tennessee Titans, who said, ""He's just playing as well now as I think he's ever played in his career."
That's a pretty amazing statement, seeing Manning had one of the best seasons in NFL history in 2004, when he threw a then record 49 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. I am one that likes to check the statistics when people make these types of claims. Here is how his 2004 season finished compared to how his 2009 season is on pace to finish:
2004: 336 completions, 497 attempts, 9.2 yards per attempt, 67.6 completion percentage, 4,557 passing yards, 49 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions, and a QB rating around 121.1.
2009: 426 completions, 580 attempts, 9.1 yards per attempt, 73.5 completion percentage, 5,264 passing yards, 38 touchdown passes, 13 interceptions, and a QB rating around 114.0.
Both Colts teams were very good. The 2004 Colts finished 12-4 and won the AFC South. They beat the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round before losing to the New England Patriots in the Divisional Round. This team is 5-0, has a three game lead in the AFC South and appears poised to compete for not only an AFC Championship, but the Super Bowl.
What is different about his 2004 season and this season is that the Colts are unable to run the ball in 2009. The Colts are 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game at just 78.8 yards per contest. In 2004 they were 15th in the NFL at 115.8 yards per game. That is the main reason that Manning's attempts are much higher, which is the reason he is on pace to throw over 5,000 yards.
However, that makes his job a lot harder, because defenses don't have to game plan against the running game like they did in 2004. He is still maintaining a yards per attempt average over 9.1, is completing a higher percentage of his passes and not turning the ball over at a substantially higher rate, which is very impressive.
The other impressive feat is that he doesn't have the talent in the receiving core that he had in 2004. Reggie Wayne is on pace for 1,468 receiving yards. The next best wide receiver on the roster is on pace for 729 yards, which is Austin Collie. Compare that to 2004 when Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley all went over the 1,000 yard mark and all had more than ten touchdown catches. A big weapon for Manning has been TE Dallas Clark, who is on pace for 112 receptions, 1,411 yards and six touchdowns, which would be an all-time great season for a tight end. Still, most explosive offenses need lots of good wide receivers to move the ball down the field in big chunks, it is not a small feat to utilize the tight end as much as Manning has and still maintain a yards per attempt number over 9.0.
Back to the original question; is Manning playing the best football of his career. If he keeps at this current pace he would have the most completions in a single season, his highest completion percentage of his career and most passing yards for his career. He would also have the second highest attempts, passing yards, touchdowns, and QB rating. A 114.0 QB rating would be the third highest single season QB rating in the history of the NFL.
Sometimes sports fans like to get caught in the moment and proclaim that this is the best they have ever seen. I will still go with 2004; because that season is in the books, this season has 11 games to go. That said, this is by far the best football he has played since that season, which is scary, because he has made two All-Pro First Teams (2005, 2008) and one All-Pro second team (2006) since that 2004 season. He also won the NFL MVP award in 2008. Peyton Manning deserves the praise that this is the best he has ever played. He continues to show why he is one of the best quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen. If he continues at this pace it is very likely that he will be receiving a record fourth MVP trophy.
A Look Ahead:
Street Cred's 2009 Regular Season Record: 50-26
This year I will not be including my picks in my newsletter, instead I will release them on Thursday as a separate article. Check back on Thursday as I release my picks for the upcoming games, with analysis of the big factors that will determine the winners.
A Look Ahead:
Street Cred's 2009 Regular Season Record: 50-26
This year I will not be including my picks in my newsletter, instead I will release them on Thursday as a separate article. Check back on Thursday as I release my picks for the upcoming games, with analysis of the big factors that will determine the winners.
Check out www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for other articles about the NFL and fantasy football. Find out why we receive thousands of hits from people each week looking for advice on how to win in their fantasy leagues.
With four weeks in the books teams are no longer able to use the excuse that they need time to develop chemistry and get into the flow of the season. Several teams are fighting to save their seasons, most notably the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers, two teams that have failed to win a game this year after going a combined 25-7 in 2008.
Here are the top five games I have identified for Week Five, with the rest of the games picked after that. My record for the season is 42-20.
1) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1) - Most people would have thought the Ravens and Steelers would be in control of first place in this division, but instead it is the Bengals that march into Baltimore for a first place showdown. That share for the lead ends this Sunday and I am going with the Ravens in this one.
The Bengals are a good story, but they don't have the firepower to hang with Baltimore, even with QB Carson Palmer playing better. The Bengals made beating Cleveland an adventure and they aren't going to be able to make the same mistakes against a very talented Baltimore squad. I look for Baltimore to win behind their solid running game and strong defense, but don't expect a blowout. Cincy is better than people gave them credit for and they usually play the Ravens tough. Winner: Baltimore
2) Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1) - Atlanta RB Michael Turner is going to have his work cut out for him when he faces the fourth ranked 49er run defense. The good news for the Falcons is that QB Matt Ryan and the p****ing game will be able to balance the Falcons attack, although the 49ers also rank 10th against the p****. The key for me is that without RB Frank Gore, Glenn Coffee is going to have to attack the light Atlanta Falcons defense. I think the 49ers are going to struggle to take advantage of that matchup, which means the 49ers are going to struggle to score points and will have to win a low scoring game. It's hard to stop the Falcons offense, so I am expecting them to prevail in a competitive game. Winner: Atlanta
3) Houston Texans (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2) - The Arizona Cardinals need a bad defense to get back on track and the Texans are a perfect candidate. The only problem is that the Texans have a bad run defense, ranking 29th against the run, but have a good p**** defense ranking ninth. The Cardinals rank 31st in rushing offense. I have no confidence in the Cardinals to protect QB Kurt Warner right now and I think DE Mario Williams is going to have a very big day on defense. Houston has been inconsistent to start the season, but I think their offense has another big effort and they pull out the win in Arizona. Winner: Houston
4 New England Patriots (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0) - An interesting matchup between New England Head Coach Bill Belichick and his former ****istant, Josh McDaniels. The Broncos are winning behind a tough defense and good ball control. The Patriots are winning by p****ing the ball with Tom Brady and company. This is also a cl****ic matchup between the third ranked Broncos p**** defense and the Patriots fifth ranked p**** offense. It's hard to pick against New England after the way they handled the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens. Denver is exceeding expectations, but I think they drop their first game this week. Winner: New England
5) Indianapolis Colts (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-4) - Many thought this would be a battle for first place in the division. Instead it is a game where Tennessee is all but fighting for its season. It's not going to happen; the Titans are tied with Jacksonville for last place in p****ing defense and QB Peyton Manning has thrown for four straight 300-yard games. Look for Manning to put on a clinic against a poor Titan defense and look for Tennessee to fall five games behind the Colts in the AFC South. Winner: Indianapolis
With three weeks in the books there are still a few teams that are anxious to earn their first win of the season, most surprisingly three division winners from 2008 (Carolina, Miami and Tennessee). while others are looking to build an early season lead in their division. There is only one game with 3-0 teams facing each other, New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints.
Here are the top five games I have identified for Week Four, with the rest of the games picked after that. My record for the season is 31-17.
01) Baltimore Ravens (3-0) at New England Patriots (2-1) - No one is playing better in the AFC than Baltimore right now, they have won their three games by 16.7 points per game, which is first among AFC teams and trails only New Orleans. Everyone knows about Baltimore's defense but their offense is stepping up to the plate this year. The Ravens are second in points scored and second in yards gained, trailing only the New Orleans Saints in both categories. Joe Flacco appears to be the franchise quarterback this team has not previously been able to find. The Patriots flexed their muscles by taking out a talented Atlanta team last week, but the Falcons can't stop the run and that allowed the Patriots to control the clock. This is going to be a very close game, but look for Baltimore to come out on top in this game. Their defense will not allow QB Tom Brady to have a big day and I expect the Ravens to move the ball much better than the Falcons did last week, which will allow them to score more than the 10 points Atlanta generated. Winner: Baltimore
02) New York Jets (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0) - The only match-up between unbeaten teams we have the number one scoring and yardage offense versus a defense that is second in points allowed and third in yards allowed. It's very hard to pick against either team, but I think expecting rookie QB Mark Sanchez to walk into New Orleans and win is a bit much. No one is playing better than Drew Brees right now, he would be my pick for MVP thus far. Their offense is explosive both running the football and passing the football. New York has a fine squad and is headed in the right direction, but they are not going 16-0 this season and it makes sense to pick the unstoppable New Orleans offense at home to win this game. Winner: New Orleans
03) Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0) - Denver has impressed me so far, their defense is much improved and they are running the ball very well. That said, they also beat Cincinnati on a miracle fluke play and then followed it up with wins over the poor Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders. This week they have a real test, playing a Dallas team with a much bigger offensive line that can run the ball down their throat. I think this will be a lot like the Monday Night Game Dallas played against Carolina. Dallas has way too much size on the offensive line for the quicker and undersized Denver defensive line. Tony Romo is not going to have a big passing day, but he should be able to do enough to earn Dallas a close victory. Winner: Dallas
04)San Diego Chargers (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) - Pittsburgh keeps finding ways to lose close games, something they are normally very good at. You have to wonder how much of an affect not having S Troy Polamalu is having on their normally stingy pass defense. Pittsburgh ranked first in pass defense last year, they rank 15th through the first three games. Keep in mind that both of Pittsburgh's losses were on the road; they are normally very tough in Pittsburgh. I like the Steelers in this game. The Chargers are not running the ball well and are not stopping the run well. I think Willie Parker is going to have a big game against the Chargers and I don't think LaDainian Tomlinson or Darren Sproles will be able to help keep the Chargers offense in balance. Philip Rivers is a good QB, but he isn't going into Pittsburgh and throwing 50 times for victory, even with Polamalu hurt. Winner: Pittsburgh
05) Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0) - Just a regular season division rivalary between two good teams; no story lines or drama in this one. Wait, there is the minor part about QB Brett Favre, the iconic Green Bay quarterback going against his former team for the first time in his career. As much as people want to talk about that, I think Favre is going to have very little affect on the outcome of the game. The Packers offensive line cannot block right now, which is a problem when they are facing Jared Allen and the Williams Brothers. The other problem is that they rank 23rd against the run and have given up back to back 100-yard games. I think you will see Favre return to the role of "game manager," with the Packers offense being hurt by a loss in time of possession and from having no holes to run through or time for QB Aaron Rodgers to throw. Vikings win the Brett Bowl I. Winner: Minnesota
My Newsletter will be posted every Tuesday on FoxSports.com. Here are my thoughts on the third week of the NFL. Please remember there are 32 teams in the NFL, there is no way I could mention every big play made by every player in every game. If you want to talk about your favorite team or player, just leave a comment about it and I while address it.
MVP of the Week: Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning showed why he is considered an all time great quarterback, yet again. Manning completed 24 passes in 35 attempts for 379 yards passing, including four touchdown passes, one pick and a QB rating of 130.5. That offensive explosion helped lead the Colts to a 31-10 win over the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. New Orleans Saints RB Pierre Thomas saw his first action of the season and proceeded to run 14 times for 126 yards and two touchdowns in the Saint's 27-7 win over the Buffalo Bills. Washington Redskins WR Santana Moss had the big game for receivers, catching 10 passes for 178 yards and one touchdown against the Detroit Lions, but Washington ended up losing that game 19-14, giving the Detroit Lions their first win since December 23, 2007, when the beat the Kansas City Chiefs 25-20. Detroit's next streak to end is a road-losing streak of 13 games, which dates back to October 28, 2007, when they beat the Chicago Bears in Chicago, 16-7.
Loser of the Week: You have to start with the Washington Redskins. Anytime you play a team that has lost 19 games in a row, you don't want to be the team that ends the streak. Washington has managed to score 23 points in two games against the defenses that were 31st and 32nd in points allowed in 2008. The problem in this game was running the ball. Clinton Portis had just 12 carries for 42 yards and no touchdowns. In three games he has 47 carries for 183 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. If he doesn't start playing better the Redskins will continue to struggle scoring points. You also have to wonder how hot the seat is for Head Coach Jim Zorn. The Redskins absolutely struggled with the two worst teams in the NFL last year and are lucky to have one win in those two contests. Owner Dan Synder is not someone that is going to patiently sit by and watch his team struggle with teams at the bottom of the NFL, although the word out of Washington is that Zorn's job is safe, for now.
I need to give an honorable mention to the Arizona offensive line, which played as bad of a game as an offensive line can play. QB Kurt Warner was sacked four times and knocked down so many more times that I can't believe he was able to walk at the end of the game. The Colts have a fast pass rushing defense, but the Cardinals have to do better than that against a defense that was on the field for 45 minutes just six days prior to the game.
Game of the Week: It would have to go to the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings. The 49ers had a 24-20 lead with less than two minutes to play and had possession of the ball after Vikings QB Brett Favre threw an incomplete pass on fourth down. Unfortunately for the 49ers the Vikings had three timeouts and were forced to exhaust them stopping the run. Favre got the ball back with 1:29 left on the clock, no time outs and 80 yards to go. No problem. He led the Vikings on a 10-play drive that was capped off with a 32-yard strike to WR Greg Lewis at the back of the end zone with just two seconds remaining. The stunning play gave the Vikings a 27-24 win and a 3-0 start to their season. Even more stunning is the fact that Lewis had been inactive for the first two games of the season and had played only three plays previous to that catch in the entire game. He was as unlikely a hero as you will ever see.
I am also giving an honorable Mention to the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Cincinnati Bengals, who played a thrilling 23-20 contest that saw the Bengals pull the upset. Bengals QB Carson Palmer led a 16 play, 71-yard drive that ended with a pass to WR Andre Caldwell with just 14 seconds left in the game. The win puts the Bengals at 2-1, just a game back of the Ravens and leaves the Steelers at 1-2 with a big game coming up against the San Diego Chargers next week. They need to start winning games or the defending champions are going to be relegated to the Wild Card race. No team in the AFC is playing better than the 3-0 Baltimore Ravens and the Steelers cannot afford to lose more games in the standings to the front running Ravens.
The Bay of Pigs: There was no 9-7 game that was a slam-dunk like the Redskins and St. Louis Rams gave us last week, but I would go with the 23-3 victory by the Denver Broncos over the Oakland Raiders. Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell was held to 61 yards passing in this contest and the Raiders managed only 137 net yards. You just can't win in the NFL with an offense that is that inconsistent. The Raiders now rank 32nd in pass offense at 359 yards in three games, the next closest team is the Cleveland Browns, who have gained 440 passing yards. The gap of 81 yards is the same as the gap between the Cleveland Browns and the Minnesota Vikings, whose 521 yards rank 26th in the NFL. As long as the Raiders struggle to pass the ball they will continue to receive mention in this part of my newsletter.
The Mike Martz Award: I think you have to question the play calling / strategy of the San Francisco 49ers and their Head Coach Mike Singeltary at the end of their game. The San Francisco 49ers took a 24-20 lead with 8:17 left in the game. The 49ers had two drives after that and ran six plays, five rushing plays and one passing play. The 49ers gained negative one yards on the rushing plays and eight yards on the passing play, which was run on third down and 17 yards to go. The result was that the Vikings had three possessions in the final 8:17 minutes of the game.
In Singletary's defense, Favre hasn't looked like that for quite a while. The last 300-yard game he had was on November 22, 2007 against the Detroit Lions; he was still in a Packer uniform at that point. Last year he had two touchdowns and nine interceptions in his final five games. This year he ranked 32nd among starting quarterbacks in passing yards heading into that game. You have to think the 49ers didn't believe Favre was going to be able to go down the field like that at this point in his career.
But then you have another issue. The 49ers quit blitzing toward the end of that game. They had been bothering Favre with constant pressure the entire game and heading into that final drive Favre was 18 for 36 for 221 yards passing, one touchdown, one pick and a QB rating of 67.0. The 49ers went into a prevent defense and he was able to move around in the pocket, buy time and find receivers, which resulted in him going six for 10 for 80 yards, one touchdown, no picks and a QB rating of 118.8. Two of the incompletions were spikes to stop the clock; without those his QB rating was 145.8.
The 49ers are going to learn that you can't stop playing football and go with the prevent defense with a four-point lead and eight minutes left in the game, especially when the guy on the other sideline is Brett Favre. Better to learn that lesson now in an early regular season game than in a playoff game. Singletary is not the first coach to make that mistake and he will not be the last.
Injury Report: Lots of big injuries this week, none bigger than Miami Dolphin's QB Chad Pennington. Pennington dislocated his shoulder and is expected to miss the season. It is the third major shoulder injury for Pennington and at 33 years old you have to wonder what this does for his NFL future. The Chad Henne era is officially underway in Miami and at 0-3 the Dolphins need him to step up.
It also shows why the New York Jets were right to cut ties with Pennington last year. Even though the Brett Favre experiment ultimately was a disappointment; Pennington was never going to be able to take them to a Super Bowl. While they cut ties a year early, the Jets are in a much better position now with their rookie QB Mark Sanchez. It also was a good move for the Dolphins, Henne was not ready to start last year and if Henne ends up being a good QB, Pennington was a great transition from the 1-15 team into the Henne era. Pennington led that team to the playoffs and changed the culture in Miami. Time will tell if this is the end for Pennington in Miami, but I wish him well, he is an extremely talented player whose career has been hampered by unfortunate shoulder injuries.
Other injuries to report would start with 49ers RB Frank Gore. He is out at least two weeks with an ankle injury. St. Louis Rams QB Marc Bulger is going to be in doubt after bruising his rotator cuff. The Buffalo Bills lost two starters in their secondary, CB Leodis McKelvin has a broken bone in his leg and S Donte Whitner has a broken thumb. McKelvin's injury is serious and has him out indefinitely, while Head Coach Dick Jauron says the team will monitor Whitner's injury on a week-to-week basis. It is a big blow to a defense on a team that is already 1-2 and struggling to stay afloat in the AFC East. Colts DE Dwight Freeney hurt his right quadriceps and is scheduled for an MRI, but as of the publishing of this newsletter, there was no word as to the extent of the injury. Finally, Redskins DT Albert Haynesworth has a hip injury, but is expected to be able to play through it.
Overall Impressions of Week Three:
1) This is why the Vikings courted Brett Favre - I'm a little tired of people saying that Favre silenced the critics. He started 8-3 and silenced the critics last year, but once he went 1-4 over the final games and played a terrible end to the season the critics reemerged. The fact is that if he has a five interception game the critics will reemerge. If he crashes at the end of this regular season the critics will reemerge. If he loses a playoff game the critics will reemerge. Anything short of a Super Bowl win is going to give his critics ammunition and they will not be silenced unless the Vikings win a Super Bowl, which in that case it will be a discussion of how little credit Favre deserves and how he was carried there by a great defense and star RB Adrian Peterson.
You can never silence critics, you can only keep them quiet for a limited time. I think that Sunday confirms to the objective football person why the Vikings thought they needed this guy, even though he turned the team down in July and recommitted later in August. Ask yourself, do the Vikings win that game if Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels is the quarterback in that exact same situation, 89 seconds left in the game, down four points, 80 yards to go and no time outs.
According to ESPN's John Clayton they don't. Over the past three years, the Vikings have averaged about nine games per season that have been decided by eight points a less. The Vikings have a record in those games of 13-16. Furthermore, some of those games were games where they were ahead and the defense made stops to preserve the lead. Last year the Vikings had the ball down five in the final minutes at Green Bay and Jackson threw a pick to seal the loss. They had two possessions against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers down by six points and failed to score a touchdown last in the fourth quarter. They lost to Atlanta by seven points and had the ball in the final two minutes, but turned the ball over on downs.
This is a game the Vikings should have lost. The 49ers had the lead and the Vikings were a dead team walking in the second half. They couldn't establish Peterson in the running game, Favre was misfiring on passes and their only touchdown in the second half was a long kickoff return by Percy Harvin. This was a game the 49ers should have won and had they played that game agianst Rosenfels or Jackson, I believe the 49ers would have won.
The difference is that the Vikings had a guy that despite being in the twilight of a Hall of Fame career, he can still do that. That is why he is still the most followed athlete in the NFL. That is why he can't decide whether or not to retire. Even though he can't play at the same level as when he was 25-years old, he still has enough left in the tank to do something like that. There is nothing that can replace that feeling and as long as he can do that, people are going to tune in to watch no matter how annoyed they are with the retirement saga that occurs from February to August.
That isn't an excuse for him not being able to make a decision until training camp is done. The thing people have to understand is that most quarterbacks that are 40-years old can't play at the level he can play. Even at this advanced age he does things that continue to amaze. Like I have said in the past, enjoy rooting for him or against him, because we are watching a once in a lifetime athlete. When it is done it is done and we will never see another one like him. Just when people thought the magic was done, The Old Gunslinger or as Jared Allen calls him, The Silver Fox, pulled one more trick out of the old hat. We'll see how the Vikings use this momentum to carry them into the most anticipated regular season game in recent memory, the Vikings and Favre facing his old team, the Green Bay Packers.
2) How bad are things in Tennessee, Carolina, and Miami - All three of these teams were division champions last year and the Titans and Panthers had first round byes. These were among the best teams in the NFL just a season ago. It shows that last season was last season; all three teams have started 0-3. The last time three division champs started 0-3 the following year was 1999, when the Denver Broncos, New York Jets, and Atlanta Falcons all started 0-3. The Falcons would finish 5-11, the Broncos 6-10 and the Jets 8-8. All three teams missed the playoffs. Furthermore, the last team to start 0-3 and make the playoffs was the 1998 Buffalo Bills. It's going to be a very difficult chore for these teams to turn their seasons around, even though there are still 13 games to play.
Miami's slow start is the most expected of the three divisional winners. They were 1-15 in 2007 and surprised everyone with an 11-5 turnaround in 2008. A 7-1 record against the two most anemic divisions in the NFL, the AFC West and NFC West fueled the big turnaround. This year they have the toughest schedule in the NFL and faced the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers. All three teams were playoff teams in 2008 and the Falcons and Colts won over ten games in 2008.
The Panthers are also somewhat expected, although I thought they would be able to make a wild card push this year. Their biggest problem has been QB Jake Delhomme and the offense and while I didn't think they would be as good as last year, I didn't think they would be this bad either. Last year the Panthers ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards and first in rushing touchdowns with 30; this year they rank 21st and have scored only two rushing touchdowns. That means Delhomme needs to step up and give them solid production in the passing game to penalize teams for putting eight in the box. He currently has two touchdowns, seven picks, seven sacks and a 54.3 QB rating that ranks 31st among starting quarterbacks in the NFL; only Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell ranks lower. As a result the Panthers rank 29th in scoring offense at just 12.3 points per game, so bad that it is worse than the Washington Redskins. That is not a recipe for success.
Tennessee has to be the most surprising team in the NFL. They opened up their season with a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers. The Steelers have since lost games at the Chicago Bears and at the Bengals. They lost their next game to the Houston Texans, who also sits at 1-2 with losses to the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. The New York Jets are 3-0 and playing as good as any team in the NFL.
Former Head Coach and current Dolphin Exceutive Vice President of Football Operations Bill Parcells once said, "You are what your record says you are." Right now the Titans are not a very good football team. One of the biggest problems is they have no efficiency in their passing game, Kerry Collins ranks 29th in QB rating at 69.9. His 55.2 completion percentage ranks 26th in the NFL. He is also turning the ball over; his four picks are tied with numerous players for fourth most in the NFL. All of those numbers are worse than what he averaged last year.
Their run defense has been stellar, ranking second in the NFL at 60.7 rushing yards allowed per game. Unfortunately, they aren't doing very well in the pass defense. This year quarterbacks have a QB rating of 100.7. Teams are completing 67.0 percent of their passes and they have given up seven touchdown passes while securing only three interceptions. Compare that to last year when they gave up only 12 touchdown passes the entire season and had the third best pass defense in terms of QB rating allowed at 69.2. A lot of that can be attributed to DT Albert Haynesworth no longer being with the team. Last year he drew a lot of double teams in the middle and the result was 44 sacks, which ranked fifth in the NFL. The Titans are still sacking the QB with seven sacks (tied for 8th in the NFL), but what aren't showing up in the stat sheets are the QB pressures and hurries that aren't there this year.
Of those three teams, the team I expect to have the best chance to turn this around is the Tennessee Titans. For as many problems as they have had, the silver lining for the Titans is that they have lost their three games by a combined total of 17 points. This isn't a situation like the Cleveland Browns who are 0-3 and been outscored by 66 points. The Tennessee Titans are still a dangerous team that can comeback from this. While they are three games back in the division to the Indianapolis Colts, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans are just 1-2. If they can get on a roll second place is easily obtainable, which could mean a wild card birth.
The other two teams I think are done. The Dolphins needed Pennington to stay healthy; they are not going to survive that schedule with backup QB Henne learning on the job. The Panthers could only be so lucky, Jake Delhomme is playing terrible and deserves to be benched, but they don't have many good options behind him. He was signed to a five year extension with $20.00 million guaranteed in April, a move that was designed to free up cap space, but was puzzling given how Delhomme played in the playoffs last year and given the Tommy John surgery he had during the 2007 season. I just don't see how they are going to survive in a division with the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints with a quarterback and running game that can't move the team down the field and can not stop turning the ball over.
A Look Ahead:
Street Cred's 2009 Regular Season Record: 31-17
This year I will not be including my picks in my newsletter, instead I will release them on Thursday as a separate article. Check back on Thursday as I release my picks for the upcoming games, with analysis of the big factors that will determine the winners.
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With two weeks in the books there are a few teams that are anxious to earn their first win of the season, while others are looking to build an early season lead in their division. There is only one game with 2-0 teams facing each other, San Francisco vs. Minnesota.
Here are the top five games I have identified for Week Three, with the rest of the games picked after that. My record for the season is 21-11, my record suffering from an 8-8 Week Two record.
1) San Francisco 49ers (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (2-0) - The only match up between unbeaten teams. The big question is whether the Minnesota Vikings, who have led the NFL in run defense the last three years (they rank 15th this year) will be able to stop Frank Gore, who is second in the NFC in rushing yards (237), behind only Adrian Peterson, who leads the entire NFL with 272 rushing yards. The other question is whether the Vikings will be able to beat the San Francisco 49ers with Brett Favre only averaging 5.5 yards per attempt. I like the Vikings to win their home opener; I don't think that Gore will have much success against the Vikings running the football and I don't think the 49er's defense is going to be able to force Favre into a big mistake late in the game. Vikings in a close one. Winner: Minnesota
2) Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at New England Patriots (1-1) - Tough game for the Patriots to play, trying to bounce back from a tough divisional loss at the New York Jets. Michael Turner has been limited by opposing defenses with 50 carries for 170 rushing yards, 3.4 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown. If the Falcons are going to win in New England, Turner is going to have to average 4.0 to 4.5 yards per carry and they are going to have to rely on him to keep QB Tom Brady off the field. Patriots aren't playing very well right now and the Falcons look as sharp as any team in the NFL (other than New Orleans), so I look for the Falcons to go to New England and steal a game. Winner: Atlanta
3) Tennessee Titans (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0) - If you would have given the records for these two teams, most people would have thought the 2-0 Titans would be taking on the 0-2 Jets. However, the Titans have lost two games by six points each and the Jets ended eight years of misery at home by beating the hated New England Patriots, which pushed their record to 2-0. I'm going to go with the Titans in this one, I just can't see them going 0-3. The two teams the Jets beat relied heavily on the pass, this Titans team is a much better runner and should be able have more success against a Titans team that risks giving up huge gains to Chris Johnson if the Jets blitz too much. Winner: Tennessee
4) Miami Dolphins (0-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-1) - The Dolphins have to be dissappointed that they dominated the Colts in every area of the game other than the one that mattered, the scoreboard. The Dolphins now also head west to take on a Chargers team that played the Baltimore Ravens tough. This is really a big game for Miami, the Chargers have a lot better chance of recovering from 1-2 in the AFC West than the Dolphins do of recovering from 0-3 in the AFC East. The only consolation for the Dolphins is they draw the Buffalo Bills, while the Chargers play the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4. If the Chargers lose this game they could easily be facing another 1-3 start to their season, a constant in the Norv Turner era. I don't think that happens. Chargers are also an explosive offense and QB Philip Rivers will be able to make the same big plays the Colt's QB Peyton Manning made that propelled them to victory. Dolphins just don't have the offense to keep up in this game. Winner: San Diego Chargers
5) Indianapolis Colts (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1) - The Colts aren't going to win many games if they can only stay on the field for 15 minutes, but the good news is they got a tough win on Monday night and now head west to take on the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals looked a lot sharper on offense in Week Two; Kurt Warner was 24 for 26 with 243 yards passing, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. I like the Cardinals in this game, that is very hard to travel to Miami and then head on a short week to Arizona. I think Warner and Company will be able to generate a lot more points on Indianapolis than Miami could, and the Colts defense is going to be exhausted having spent 45 minutes on the field only to travel west to face a very explosive offense. Winner: Arizona
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