There is no question that the NFC East has been the NFL's toughest division since 2005.  In 2004 the Philadelphia Eagles finished 13-3 and went on to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.  The Washington Redskins, New York Giants, and Dallas Cowboys all finished 6-10 that year.   It was a division that was in major flux.  

Since then it has been an absolute war in that division.  In 2005 the Dallas Cowboys finished in third place with a 9-7 record, making Philadelphia the only team in the division with a losing record at 6-10.  New York and Washington both made the playoffs that year with Dallas on the outside looking in.  In 2006 the New York Giants finished with the third best record in the division at 8-8.  They made the playoffs, making the 5-11 Washington Redskins as the only non-playoff NFC East squad.  In 2007 the Eagles were the only team not to make the playoffs from the NFC East.  They finished in last place with a respectable 8-8 record.   In 2008 the Dallas Cowboys missed the playoffs at 9-7 and the Redskins finished last at 8-8.

When all four of your teams are finishing close to .500 and at least two teams if not three are making the playoffs on a consistent basis there is little argument that from top to bottom the toughest division in the NFL is the NFC East.   However, there is one division that is slowly making a move to become the toughest division in the NFL.  It's the AFC East.  

Last year the Dolphins and Patriots both won 11 games.  The Patriots missed the playoffs, becoming the first 11-win team to miss the playoffs since 1985.  The New York Jets finished 9-7.  Finally the Buffalo Bills finished 7-9.  

Let's not kid ourselves.  Part of that had to do with the schedule.  The AFC East drew both the AFC and NFC West, easily the two worst divisions in football.  That easy schedule played a big role in the Buffalo Bills being 7-9.  It helped the Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets win as many games as they did.  Still the AFC East has been busy this off-season.  With each signing the division is becoming more competitive by the minute.  Let's take a look at some of the key moves made in the AFC East this off-season.  

Buffalo Bills:  The Bills started the season 4-0, before collapsing down the stretch and finishing 7-9.  They had a pretty good defense in 2008, but struggled to score points.  They made a big splash by signing Terrell Owens when he was released from the Cowboys.  Adding him to Evans, Lynch (if he isn't suspended), and Jackson upgrades this offense.  

With the 11th, 42nd, and 75th pick in the draft they could add some more firepower on offense.  If their defense can play at the same level as last year they could be a force in the AFC East this year, provided that TO does not divide their locker room as he has at his previous stops.   If history is a guide TO usually doesn't wear out his welcome until the second or sometimes the third season.  The bigger concern for me is whether his 35-year old body has lost a step.  If not, he could be poised for a big year.

Miami Dolphins:  Their big move was brining Chad Pennington on board last year.  That move gave their offense stability and allowed them to improve from 1-15 to 11-5 in just one season.  With a full year to work in the offense with his teammates he figures to be improved.   They also added Gibril Wilson to improve the secondary and Jake Grove to strengthen the offensive line.

Bill Parcells cleared the roster of a lot of veteran players that weren't helping the team win and got younger.  Those younger players like Jake Long, Ted Gin Jr., Phillip Merling and others figure to be improved in 2009.  They also have the 25th, 44th, 56th, and 87th picks in the draft, which means they could be adding some more good young talent to this already talented roster.  Don't forget Ronnie Brown will be another year removed from his knee injury.  He could be much improved from a year ago.  If all those things were out for the Dolphins they could have another solid season.  Things are finally looking up in South Florida.

New England Patriots:  The Patriots have one of the most talented teams in the NFL, but that hasn't stopped them from having their usual busy off-season.  They improved the secondary by signing CB Shaun Springs and Leigh Bodden.  They also upgraded their receiver position by adding Joey Galloway, and Greg Lewis.  They also added TE Chris Baker.  Finally, they added RB Fred Taylor to the mix.

Those are all solid veteran players that could really help the Patriots.  Age is a big concern for Taylor and Galloway.  However, if they can turn back the clock for one season the Patriots have added some scary weapons to an offense that was already one of the ten best in the NFL.

They have had some losses too.  They traded Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel to the Kansas City Chiefs for the 34th pick in the draft.  Lamont Jordan and Jabar Gaffney are now Broncos.  But the Patriots figure to be fine there, because of Tom Brady.  The Patriots were without him last year, so him coming back is almost like bringing in a new player.    If he recovers from knee surgery the Patriots will once again have the best quarterback in the NFL.  Given the veterans they have already added and the five draft picks they have in the first 89 picks of the draft they figure to be an improved squad from 2008.  It's another case of the rich getting richer.   

New York Jets:  They had a couple losses on the offensive side of the ball.  Brett Favre has retired, although that isn't even that big of a loss when you consider the way he finished the season.  The bigger problem is that they have no proven NFL quarterback on the roster.  Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff are hardly proven NFL signal callers.  They also lost Coles by cutting him to make salary cap room.  He signed with the Bengals.  

They Jets have turned themselves into Baltimore North.  Not only did they hire defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to turn the Jets around, but also they added a number of Raven defenders. DE Marques Douglas, FS Jim Leonhard, and ILB Bart Scott all joined Ryan in New York.  The Jets also added CB Lito Sheppard from the Eagles and LB Larry Izzo from the Patriots.  The Jets figure to be much improved on defense.  

The Jets have the 17th, 52nd, and 76th pick in the draft.  If they do well with those and find a quarterback and a couple skill position players to add to Jones, Washington, Cotchery, and Keller they could still have an effective offense and be very competitive in this division.  At the very least they will have a much better defense in 2009.

When you combine the free agent acquisitions, the front offices and coaching staffs, the existing players, and the draft picks that the AFC East has at their disposal all four teams have improved their teams heading into the 2009 season.  The only question is whether the schedule will allow them to have the same success record wise that they had in 2008.  If the AFC East is going to overtake the NFC East as the NFL's toughest division not only do all their teams have to have close to .500 records or better, but they also need to get two or three teams in the playoffs.

There are a few things that lean in the NFC East's favor.  Number one, they were also busy this off-season.  The Redskins signed Albert Haynesworth.  The Giants got Chris Canty, Michael Boley, and Rocky Bernard to improve their defense.  The Cowboys may have done addition by subtraction by eliminating the volatile personality that is TO from their locker room.  The Eagles did lose some secondary pieces with Sheppard and Dawkins, but did add Sean Jones from the Cleveland Browns and also improved their offensive line by signing Stacy Andrews.  The NFC also has front offices that have been pretty good in the draft, with the exception of the Washington Redskins.  The NFC East as a whole figures to improve in the draft as well.   There isn't a team in that division that looks poised to finish with a record of less than 8-8, unless one of the teams suffers a major injury.

The other thing is the schedule.  The AFC East draws the AFC South and NFC South.  The AFC South had the 13-3 Titans and 12-4 Colts make the playoffs.  The NFC South had the 12-4 Panthers and 11-5 Falcons.  That doesn't include the 9-7 Buccaneers, 8-8 Saints, and 8-8 Texans.  No matter how you slice it and dice it the 2009 schedule will be much tougher for the AFC East.  The schedule isn't loaded with the Chiefs, Raiders, and Rams of the world.

The other thing working for the NFC East is that they draw the AFC West instead of the AFC North that they drew in 2008.  That means no Pittsburgh and Baltimore and it means the mess that is the AFC West.  The NFC East also draws the NFC South, which means they have the same challenges as the AFC East in regards to that division.  

I think we can count on the Patriots and Giants being solid playoff contending teams.  They have as much talent as any franchises in the NFL.  I also think it is safe to assume the Bills and Redskins still have a lot of work to do in improving their chances in these tough divisions.  The key is going to be whether the Eagles have another run in them with Westbrook and McNabb and whether the Dolphins can continue on their 08 successes with Chad Pennington or if he is going to go back to being injured and inconsistent.

The other key will be whether the Jets and Cowboys can put some of their season ending drama behind them and play as a more cohesive unit.  Those teams need improved chemistry in the worst way.   Still, when those teams are considered the third best teams in the division it says a lot about the talent of the NFC East and AFC East.

The AFC West has the Chiefs and Raiders.  The NFC West has the Rams.  The NFC North has the Lions.  The AFC North has the Bengals and Browns.  It's hard to argue those divisions are the best from the top to bottom in the NFL with those franchises in those divisions.  

The NFC South looked like the best division in the NFL last year, especially before the Buccaneers collapsed at the end of the season.  For as good as the Saints offense has been their defense is bad.  They play great at home and terrible on the road.  The Bucs appear to be rebuilding.  It seems hard to believe they will improve on their 9-7 record.  That makes the NFC South a likely two-team race. However you cold argue it is still the toughest division. 

The Titans have lost Haynesworth, the Colts have lost Dungy, and the Jags collapsed last year.  The division still has multiple playoff contenders, but it has taken some losses from last year.  It will be interesting to see how those departures effect those teams.  The AFC South and NFC South are the dark horses for best division in the NFL.

The two best divisions heading into the draft appear to be the NFC East and the AFC East.   If they draft strong it will only strengthen that notion.  I'm still going with the NFC East as the best division given their previous five-year body of work, how the teams faired in 2008, and some of the moves the NFC East made this off-season.  But the AFC East is no joke.  If these teams can come together it is going to be a war to win games in that division.  That is a far cry from where that division was in 2007 when it was the 16-0 Patriots and three awful football teams with losing records.  Many people thought the NFC East lucked out in 2007 with games against the 1-15 Dolphins, 4-12 Jets, and 7-9 Bills.  What a difference two years can make.  Nobody really wants to square off against the AFC East now.

What are your thoughts?  Do you think the NFC East is the toughest division or do you think it's the AFC East?  Perhaps you think it is a different division.  Let me know your thoughts as the free agency signing period begins to wind down.  Which division figures to have the most teams contending for playoff spots?  

There are still some big free agent names on the market, such as Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, and Derrick Brooks.  If we can get some movement on them in the next week I'm going to try to do a final recap of the free agent period next Tuesday.  If not I'm going to wait one more week and see where things are at then.  As always if you want to check out other football articles visit www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com.

During the NFL off-season I like to write articles and get the debate going about NFL history.  If you like these types of topics keep reading my blog.  I periodically get a good debate started. 

One thing we like to do as NFL analyst and fans is speculate about what might have happened. What if your favorite team had drafted this guy instead of that guy?  What if this trade had not gone down?  What would the NFL have looked like then?

It would be almost impossible to pick just ten events in NFL history. It was hard enough to do for just the last 30 years. I tried to select a mix of some of the best players of the last 30 years to go along with the best teams.  Here is my list in chronological order of the ten most pivotal events in the NFL since the NFL made major rule changes to the offensive side of he ball in 1978.

01) January 10, 1982 - What if Dallas Clark doesn't make "The Catch?" - It's such an incredible catch and a symbol of the 49er dynasty. The 49ers were trailing 27-21 with 4:54 left in the game when they took over at their own 11-yard line. They marched 83-yards down the field and faced a third and goal at the Dallas six yard line. Joe Montana scrambled out of the pocket and as he was approaching the sideline he put a pass up over the hands of Ed "Too Tall" Jones and toward the back of the end zone. Dwight Clark came down with an amazing catch and the rest is history.

That game sent the 49ers to the Super Bowl where they defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 26-21 and captured their first Super Bowl. Joe Montana won his first MVP award. If the Cowboys had stopped that play it is possible the 49ers would have scored on a less spectacular play on fourth down and that the only thing missing would be the spectacular NFL Highlight Film moment.

Had the Cowboys won this game Tom Landry would have coached in his sixth Super Bowl. The 49er dynasty may have never been born. Without that we might not have the legacy of Joe Montana. The West Coast Offense may not have become a prominent offense in the NFL.  Assistant coaches like George Seifert, Mike Holmgren, Dennis Green, Sam Wyche, Jim Fassel, and Paul Hackett may never have gotten their shots to become coaches. The assistants that became head coaches from their successes are too numerous to count.

This play was so crucial to the birth of the San Francisco 49ers as we know them and marked the birth of the 49er dynasty.  The implications the 49ers dynasty had on the NFL are still felt in the NFL today.  This is The Catch that started it all and is one of the most important plays in NFL history.

02) May 02, 1983 - What if the Baltimore Colts don't trade John Elway to the Denver Broncos? - John Elway wasn't always a Denver Bronco. He was originally drafted by the Baltimore Colts, but had no intention of playing there. He threatened to pitch for the New York Yankees as he was quite the pitching prospect coming out of Stanford.  The Colts eventually traded him to the Denver Broncos and he decided to pursue a career in football instead of baseball.

If there is no John Elway in Denver Dan Reeves might not have gone on to lead the Denver Broncos to three Super Bowls in four years from 1986-1989. He might not have had a successful coaching career that saw him take the New York Giants to the playoffs in the early 1990s and the Atlanta Falcons to Super Bowl XXXIII in 1998.

If Elway is wearing pin stripes there wouldn't be The Drive in 1986 or The Fumble in 1987 against the Cleveland Browns. In later years Elway wouldn't have been in Denver for us to see the Broncos win Super Bowl XXXII and XXXIII. We would have been denied one of the best Super Bowls ever when Elway did the Helicopter Dive that helped beat the Green Bay Packers. Mike Shanahan may not have gone on to be the legendary Hall of Fame coach he is today without Elway there. Terrell Davis wouldn't have been there to start the successful run of Denver running backs from 1995 to 2008.

Denver participated in five Super Bowls from 1983 to 1998 and has been one of the most successful franchises in the NFL.  Without John Elway we never get to see that. More than any other player he put the Denver Broncos on the map.
 
03) April 30, 1985 - What if the New York Jets or Cincinnati Bengals had selected Jerry Rice? - Joe Montana is the player most responsible for starting the 49er Dynasty. Jerry Rice helped keep it alive well into the late 1990s. The 49ers had the fifteenth pick in the NFL draft in 1985. They were coming off a 15-1 season and a destroying of the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl XIX. The Jets had the tenth pick and took Wisconsin WR Al Toon. The Cincinnati Bengals took University of Miami (FL) wide receiver Eddie Brown with the 13th pick. Jerry Rice was selected two picks later.  The 49ers never figured to get a player with that type of impact at the 15th pick.  At the time many draft experts felt he wasn't fast enough to be an elite NFL receiver.

Al Toon would go on to be three-time Pro Bowl player and three-time NFL All Pro First Team selection. His career was cut short because of concussions. Eddie Brown would win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award and would make the Pro Bowl in 1988. Jerry Rice would only go on to be the best receiver in the history of the Modern Day NFL.

Joe Montana won Super Bowls without Jerry Rice, so you can't assume he couldn't have won Super Bowl XXIII and Super Bowl XXIV without Jerry Rice. On the other hand Jerry Rice had 11 catches for 213 yards and one touchdown in Super Bowl XXIII, capturing MVP honors in a 20-16 win over the Bengals, one of the teams that passed on Jerry Rice. Rice had seven catches for 148 yards and three touchdowns in a 55-10 win over Denver in Super Bowl XXIV. He also had 10 catches for 149 yards and three touchdowns in a 49-26 win over San Diego with Steve Young as quarterback.  Rice was a big reason the 49ers won those three Super Bowls.

I think it is fair to say the 49ers don't win Super Bowl XXXIII without Jerry Rice, especially considering the 49ers were only 10-6 that year, the game was very close, and he may have been on the Bengals team they were facing if history had been different. I also think it is fair to say that Jerry Rice was instrumental in the 49ers dynasty extending to 1998. He was such a big part of their offense and was a big reason why the 49ers were so efficient on offense. If Rice had been with the Jets or the Bengals they probably don't win three Super Bowls, because they didn't have the quarterback play or other pieces that the 49ers had.  But one would have to think those franchises might have been able to build a Super Bowl contender for at least one season with Rice in the mix.  San Francisco was very happy it turned out the way it did.

04) October 12, 1989 - What if the Dallas Cowboys don't trade Herschel Walker to the Minnesota Vikings? - This was the trade that started it all for Jerry Jones. He had bought a Dallas team that had the first pick in the draft and 1989 would get off to a bad start.  Dallas started the season 0-5 and knew they had to make a move.  They finished that season 1-15 and the writing was on the wall by Week Five.  There just weren't enough NFL capable players to win. 

Their best player was Herschel Walker, but he was a 27-year old running back.  They didn't have time to build around him.  Helping matters the Minnesota Vikings felt they were a running back away from contending with the 49ers for the NFC title. They were desperate to acquire Walker.  The two teams put together a deal that sent Herschel Walker to the Vikings.  As a result Dallas acquired five players and eight draft picks.

The Cowboys already had Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin. This trade gave them the pick they used on the final piece of The Triplets, Emmitt Smith. They also acquired Darren Woodson.  If you combine the Cowboys picks with the picks the Vikings gave the Cowboys they had the ammunition they needed to rebuild their team quickly.  In 1990 they were 7-9. In 1991 they made the playoffs with an 11-5 record. In 1992 they went 13-3 and won the first of their three Super Bowls from 1992-1995.

Meanwhile the Vikings would go on to win the NFC North with a 10-6 record, but would lose to the 49ers 41-13 in San Francisco.  Walker never had the impact the VIkings envisioned when they traded for him.  He had nine carries for 29 yards, two receptions for 14 yards, and no touchdowns in his only playoff game with Minnesota.  Herschel Walker was gone after the 1991 season. The Vikings would not win a playoff game until 1997.

This trade changed the landscape of the NFL. It is one reason why general managers are so weary of giving up draft picks. It made Jimmy Johnson into a star head coach. Without this trade he may not turn Dallas into a Super Bowl winner. Without those credentials it is doubtful that the Dolphins replace Don Shula with Jimmy Johnson. Jimmy Johnson also had a coaching tree in the NFL. Norv Turner has coached the Redskins, Raiders, and now the Chargers.  Dave Wannstedt replaced Johnson in Miami before taking over as the Pittsburgh Panthers head coach.  Their successes were aided by this blockbuster trade.

Also think about the Vikings.  As bad as the trade was they recovered from this trade by hiring Denny Green in 1992.  They went on to win the NFC Central in 1992, 1994, and 1998.  What if Chris Carter and Emmitt Smith team up in Minnesota?  Do the Vikings use one of those lost picks to find a quarterback and become the premier team in the NFC? 

While the Vikings were able to become a playoff team those lost draft picks really hurt them from turning into a contender.  Once the division rival Packers got Brett Favre and Reggie White they became the class of that division.  Those were competitive games as it was.  It would have been interesting to see what Emmitt Smith and those other draft picks would have done for that rivalry.

05) January 20, 1991 - What if Leonard Marshall doesn't knock Joe Montana out of the NFC Championship Game? - You know your franchise is big time when it makes the list three times. This game was pivotal for so many reasons. The 49ers were coming off two Super Bowl wins. They had two more wins to go to join the Green Bay Packers as the only team in NFL history to win three consecutive championships.

The 49ers were ahead 13-9 heading into the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship Game.  Late in the fourth quarter Joe Montana was sacked by Leonard Marshall and knocked out of the game.  The Giants went on to cut the lead to 13-12. Then with 2:46 and trying to run out the clock Roger Craig fumbled the ball. The Giants went on to kick their fifth field goal and pull the upset off by a score of 15-13. Bill Parcells would go on to win his second Super Bowl, beating the Buffalo Bills 20-19.

There's no guarantee that Craig doesn't go on to fumble that ball with Montana in the game and the Giants win anyway. While possibly denying the 49ers of their third straight title is big enough, the bigger impact of this game were felt by what followed.

As a result of this injury Montana would miss the next two seasons. Steve Young would be the MVP of the NFL by 1992. In 1993 Montana was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs. The 1990 Championship was in effect Montana's last meaningful game with the San Francisco 49ers. Steve Young would go on to have a Hall of Fame career and win a Super Bowl in the 1994 season.  If Montana doesn't get hurt Steve Young might not see the field for another two seasons.  Do the 49ers beat the Cowboys in 1992 or 1993 with a healthy Montana?  Is he still good enough by 1994 to lead that 49er team to that Super Bowl?  Does that delay cause Steve Young to go elsewhere?  Does he have six 100.00 rating seasons and a career 96.8 rating with someone else?  If he stays in San Francisco and doesn't start full time until 1994 or 1995 he probably doesn't have enough seasons left in his career to make the Hall of Fame.

Then look at what that win meant to the Giants.  Is Bill Parcells the coaching legend he is today without that Super Bowl? Probably, but it sure didn't hurt his resume.  Does he still retire at the end of the season and if not does he end up in New England in 1993?  Do the Bills not lose their first of four Super Bowls if the 49ers win?  Norwood probably still misses that field goal, but you never now.  The 49ers weren't the ball control offense that would have kept the Bills off the field like the Giants did.  The Giants controled the clock for a record 40 minutes.  The Bills probably put up more points in a 49er match up.  Anything's possible. It's interesting to think about how different NFL history would look if Marshall had not knocked Montana out of that game. 

06) February 10, 1992 - What if the Atlanta Falcons don't trade Brett Favre to the Packers for the 19th pick in the NFL draft? - The NFL has had many big faces over the last 18 years. But none have been as popular as Brett Favre. He went on to set every major career NFL passing record, won three MVP awards, started 269 consecutive regular season games, and led the Packers to their first Super Bowl win since the Lombardi era. His Number Four Packer jersey became the most popular jersey in NFL history. 

He was instrumental in changing the face of the Green Bay Packers.  Prior to him arriving in Green Bay the Packers were a historic franchise that had fell on thirty years of hard times and had become a laughing stock in the NFL.  Nobody wanted to play there.  The Packers needed someone to breathe life into that franchise.  Brett Favre made the Packers relevant again.

In Atlanta he was nothing more than a hotheaded rookie QB that partied too much, slept through team meetings, missed team photos, and battled with Jerry Glanville and the coaching staff.  As a result he was third on the depth chart.  He was viewed as a second round bust. The Falcons were happy to find a taker, much less a taker that gave up a first round pick. Had he stayed there he may never have been heard from.

As a result of Brett Favre's success Holmgren had a lot of success. He ended up going to the Seattle Seahawks after Green Bay and turning that franchise around.   They went to the Super Bowl in the 2005 season behind Shaun Alexander's record setting season.  Jon Gruden, Andy Reid, Steve Mariucci, Dick Jauron, Ray Rhodes, and Mike Sherman all went on to become head coaches. Gruden won a Super Bowl with Tampa Bay, Reid appeared in on with Philly, and the rest coached in at least one playoff game.  Ty Detmar, Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck, Aaron Brooks, and Aaron Rodgers all went on to become serviceable to successful NFL starting quarterbacks.

There were a number of big moves in turning around Green Bay. Hiring Ron Wolf and Mike Holmgren, signing Reggie White, and trading for Brett Favre are the big four.  But had the Packers not gotten Brett Favre, Reggie White probably doesn't sign in Green Bay.  Not only did trading for Brett Favre revive the Packer franchise, but it also brought Reggie White there and changed how NFL players looked at Green Bay.  Without those two and the free agents that followed after Reggie White signed in Green Bay it is doubtful Wolf and Holmgren get over the mountain. 

Had Favre simply busted out in Atlanta the Packers may still be one of the laughing stocks of the NFL and there is no telling how different the NFL landscape would be with all those assistants that might not be head coaches and all those quarterbacks that didn't get to learn from a NFL legend and start for other teams.  It's one of the most important trades in NFL history.

07) April 18, 1998 - What if the Indianapolis Colts select Ryan Leaf with the first pick in the draft? - That was the big choice that year. There were two great prospects in the draft. Peyton Manning, the son of a NFL quarterback and four year starter at the University of Tennessee and Ryan Leaf, the hot shot quarterback that led Washington State to a Rose Bowl appearance in a four wide receiver NFL style offense. Analysts were split 50-50 as to who was the better choice.  Manning was viewed as the safer choice, but many thought Leaf had more upside.  In the end the Colts selected Peyton Manning. The Chargers took Ryan Leaf with the second pick in the draft.

Peyton Manning would go on to become a nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback. If he retired today he would be a first ballot Hall of Fame selection. He also led the Colts to the Super Bowl in 2006 has won 12 games or more every year since 2003. Ryan Leaf lasted in the NFL until 2001. He had a 4-17 record as a starter.

What would have been interesting is had Peyton Manning gone to San Diego instead of Indy, what would the AFC look like today.  Peyton Manning would almost certainly have panned out in San Diego too.  If that were the case Drew Brees and Philip Rivers would never have made their names with the San Diego Chargers. Who knows if the Chargers would have selected LT?  One reason they were selecting that high was because of the aftermath of the Ryan Leaf decision.  I think San Diego would have become a contender very similar to what Indy is today.  Having a quarterback of that level makes up for a lot of other sins and makes teams relevant year in and year out.  The Chargers have had a strong front office over the years.  Drafting a player like Leaf has been the exception, not the rule.

Without Manning in Indy Tony Dungy probably doesn't go to Indy in 2002.  Without Manning that probably isn't a very attractive stop.  Dungy had a historic run their winning 12 games per season from 2003-2008.  He also became the first black NFL head coach to win the Super Bowl.  He is a very talented and successful man so I think he would have found a way somewhere, but it probably wouldn't have been Indy.  We never would have gotten those three Indy vs. New England playoff games, especially the classic 2006 AFC Championship Game.  There is no telling how much different the AFC looks like over the last ten years had the Colt's called Ryan Leaf's name instead.

08) April 15, 1999 - What if the Indianapolis Colts do not trade Marshall Faulk to the St. Louis Rams?  - The Colts had big decisions in consecutive years and this one shook up the NFL too.  While they chose wisely in 1998 they really missed a golden opportunity here.  This may have been the most pivitol trade involving an established player in the history of the NFL, even bigger than the Randy Moss deal in 2007, because of the effect it had on both teams.

Marshall Faulk had been a very productive player for the Indianapolis Colts.  He was the 1994 NFL Offensive Player of the Year with 1,282 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns.  He made three Pro Bowls with the Colts.  In 1995 he helped lead the Colts to the AFC Championship Game appearance.  They followed that up with a playoff appearance in 1996, before bottoming out in 1997 with a 3-13 record.  He was a talented player surrounded by a lot of poor players.

The Colts quickly rebuilt.  They already had Marvin Harrison.  They needed a quarterback and they used that first pick on Peyton Manning in the 1998 draft.  In 1998 the Colts went 3-13 for a second consecutive season.  However, a young offensive force was in the making with Peyton Manning (22), Marshall Faulk (25), and Marvin Harrison (26).   They figured to be the next big scoring threat in the NFL for years to come.   Even more importantly they had the fourth pick in the draft.

Marshall Faulk wanted a new contract and Bill Polian feared that his young team could be damaged with a contract dispute.  The draft also had two superstar running backs in the making with Ricky Williams and Edgerrin James.  The Colts decided to jettison Faulk to the St Louis Rams for a second and fifth round pick.  The Colts used those picks on LB Mike Peterson and DE Brad Scioli.  They used their fourth pick in the draft to select Edgerrin James.   The moves helped produce a 13-3 Division winner and ten game improvement from 1998.  It's hard to argue with the move from that standpoint.

The negative is that he didn't dramatically improve the make up of the team, because he basically traded a star running back and had to use his fourth pick to select a very similar player.  Imagine what happens if he keeps Marshall Faulk and selects Torry Holt with the fourth pick.  I think the Greatest Show on Turf just moved from St Louis to Indy.  If he wanted to go defense he could have taken CB Champ Bailey, CB Chris McAlister, or DE Jevon Kearse with the fourth pick.  That improves their defense more than Mike Peterson.  While the Colts got a fine player in Edgerrin James they really missed a golden opportunity to become the premier team in the AFC.  Had they kept Faulk they could have been even better in 1999, possibly making the Super Bowl.

At the time nobody thought the move would make the Rams into Super Bowl contenders.  They had been 4-12 the previous year.  Dick Vermeil was in danger of losing his job if he didn't produce a winner.  However, the Rams had quietly been acquiring some big pieces.  The Rams still had the sixth pick in that draft, which they used to select Torry Holt.  Faulk and Holt were added to an offense that already featured Isaac Bruce and Orlando Pace.  When Trent Green was injured in the preseason the Rams turned to an unknown Kurt Warner (another event that could have made this list).  The rest was history. 

The Rams became the Greatest Show on Turf and led the NFL in points scored and yards gained for the next three years.  Kurt Warner won the MVP award in 1999 and 2001.  Marshall Faulk won the award in 2000.  The Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV 23-16 over the Tennessee Titans and lost to the Patriots 20-17 in Super Bowl XXXVI. 

On the Rams side, what happens if they don't acquire Marshall Faulk?  In those three years of dominance he was unstoppable.  He set a NFL record for yards from scrimmage with 2,429 in 1999.   In those three years he had 766 rushes for 4,122 yards, 5.4 yards per carry, and 37 rushing touchdowns.  He also had 251 receptions for 2,643 yards, 10.5 yards per catch, and 22 touchdowns.  He was All-Pro First Team all three seasons.  Had they not acquired Marshall Faulk they would have either had to gone with Robert Holcombe or Justin Watson at running back or they would have had to trade up in the draft to get Ricky Williams or Edge James, meaning no Torry Holt. 

Without Marshall Faulk the Rams are just a Show on Turf, not The Greatest Show on Turf.  Without him they do not win a Super Bowl in 1999.  Without him Kurt Warner probably doesn't become the star he is today and who knows if he is in Arizona this year to lead the Cardinals to a Super Bowl.  The Rams had a lot of good players, but I don't think there is much debate that their best player was Marshall Faulk.  He was that important to that team's success.  Also, look at what that move did for Dick Vermeil.  He gained a lot of respect for winning that Super Bowl.    Dick Vermeil was a big name in the football profession prior to 1999.  This move helped make him legendary.

On the flip side, if Marshall Faulk stays in Indianapolis what does that team become?  I already talked about the ramifications on 1999.  James was very good in his own right.  He rushed for 1,553 yards as a rookie and increased that to 1,709 yards rushing in his second year.  He had 35 rushing and receiving touchdowns in his first two years.  Unfortunately for him he ripped up his knee in his third year in just the sixth game.  The Colts couldn't have seen that happening in 1999.  It took him until 2003 to get back to NFL shape.  After that he was very good, but not the same back he was his first two years in the NFL.

Faulk was really nothing to write home about after 2001.  He made the Pro Bowl in 2002 in large part due to his reputation.  He would never have a 1,000-yard season.  There is no guarantee that Faulk would have put up those big numbers from St Louis in Indianapolis.  That Rams offense was tailor made for his skill set.  The Colts weren't using him the same way, especially as a receiver. 

Still, it is interesting to think about what would have happened if arguably the best receiver in the game and the best running back in the game had played on the same team from 1999 to 2001 with a young Hall of Fame all-time great quarterback and another potential Hall of Famer in Torry Holt.  It's also interesting to think about the Colts with one of those star defenders from the 1999 draft class, most likely Champ Bailey.

Could the Colts have stole a Super Bowl or two before the Patriots rose to dominance?  If Faulk doesn't suffer the same knee injury James suffered do the Colts bottom out at 6-10 in 2001?  If not does Jim Mora not lose his job after the 2001 season and does Tony Dungy ever make it to Indianapolis?  Does Jim Mora become the coaching legend Vermeil became?  While the Rams got the better end of the deal it's hard to feel sorry for Indy.  There are so many good things that happened to Indy as a result of this trade.  That's what makes it so interesting.  It's hard to look better than the Colts have since Manning came there and Dungy became the coach.  Still, things might have looked very different in Indy if the Colts decide to pay Faulk his money instead of shipping him off to St. Louis.

09) September 23, 2001 - What if Mo Lewis doesn't knock Drew Bledsoe out of a Week Two Game? - The Patriots were a franchise headed nowhere.  After going 11-5 in 1996 and losing to the Packers in the Super Bowl, Bill Parcells left for the New York Jets.  Pete Carroll stepped in and went to the playoffs in 1997 and 1998.  However, they went 1-2 in the playoffs and after an 8-8 campaign in 1999 he was let go and replaced by Bill Belichick.

Belichick had been a head coach once before.  He was 36-44 in Cleveland with a 0-1 record.   When the Browns moved to Baltimore they left Belichick behind and he went back to being Parcell's defensive coordinator.  After accepting the job with the New York Jets he quit the next day and took the job with the New England Patriots.  The Jets appeared to be the winners in 2000 when the Patriots went 5-11. 

The Patriots had their defensive foundation in place.  Tedy Bruschi, Ty Law, Chris Slade, Ted Johnson, Willie McGinest, Lawyer Milloy, and Otis Smith were all on that 2000 team.  They all played big roles in at least one of the three Super Bowls.  The problem was offense.  Drew Bledsoe was still highly regarded, but had only 3,291 yards, 17 touchdowns, 13 picks, and a 77.3 QB rating in 2000.  Troy Brown and Terry Glenn both finished with over 900 yards.  Kevin Faulk led the team with 570 yards rushing.  They just didn't have the offense to compete, finishing 25th in the NFL in scoring. 

2001 didn't get off to a good start either.  They lost to the Cincinnati Bengals 23-17 in the opener.  The Jets Mo Lewis knocked Bledsoe out of the game in the fourth quarter of a 10-3 loss to the Jets.  The Patriots were staring at 0-2 and they had a sixth round pick as their starting quarterback for the next few weeks.  The Patriots were just hoping to win a game before things turned ugly. 

That sixth round pick happened to be Tom Brady.  Since that Jets's game Brady has a 86-24 record as a starting quarterback, has appeared in four Super Bowls, winning three of them, and winning MVP honors twice.  He has quarterbacked the Patriots to six division titles.  He has thrown for 50 touchdown passes in a season, won the 2007 MVP award as a result of that, and become one of the biggest faces in the NFL.  If he retired today he would be a first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. 

What if Mo Lewis doesn't knock Bledsoe out of that game?  It seems believable that Bledsoe would have eventually lost his job to Brady?  But would it have been in time to save the 2001 season?  If Brady doesn't see the field in 2001 do the Patriots go looking for a first round pick in that draft or do they sign a free agent quarterback?  Does that keep Brady on the bench even longer or does Brady end up getting released and going elsewhere?

If Brady sticks around he is probably starting in 2003 going forward.  Maybe, the only thing missing from the Patriots resume is the 2001 Super Bowl, still giving them a repeat in 2003 and 2004.   But that is hardly a guarantee.  Do the Colts become the dominant team in the NFL without the Patriots to stand in their way in 2003 and 2004?  The best thing that ever happened to the Patriots was Mo Lewis knocking Drew Bledsoe out of that game and allowing NFL history to be changed forever. 

Then take a look at the other ramifications?  Without Brady is Bill Belichick considered one of the greatest head coaches of all-time?  Does Charlie Weiss end up at Notre Dame?  Does Romeo Crenel end up in Cleveland?  Does Josh McDaniels end up in Denver?  Does the Man Genius end up in New York?  Not all those moves have worked out.  I'm sure the Irish and Browns are having their share of regrets that they hired these Patriots assistants.  They probably wish Lewis had not hurt Bledsoe either.

The Patriots have had a significant impact on the NFL landscape since 2001.  That started with this play.  Without it this decade looks a lot different. 

10) April 24, 2004 - What if the New York Giants don't trade Eli Manning for Philip Rivers? - We don't know the entire ramifications of this deal yet, because Eli Manning and Philip Rivers are just entering their prime years.  Manning turned 28 in January and Rivers will be 28 in December.

The Chargers got the better end of the deal early.  They used the draft picks they got from the Giants to select Shawne Merriman and Nate Kaeding.  They used the other pick to trade to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for tackle Romen Oben.   Those moves fueled their 14-2 season in 2006, but they lost to the Patriots in the Division Round.  They then advanced to the AFC Championship in 2007, losing to the Patriots again. In 2008 Rivers was the only quarterback in the NFL with a rating over 100.00 and tied Drew Brees for the NFL lead in touchdown passes with 34.  He appears to be ready to dominate the NFL for at least the next five seasons.

The Giants looked to be the loser in the deal early.  Eli Manning struggled with completion percentage and interceptions.  The Giants made the playoffs in 2005 and 2006, but were bounced each time in the Wildcard Round.  After an up and down 2007 season people were ready to run Eli Manning out of town.  He played spectacular in the season finale against undefeated New England, led his team to road playoff wins at Tampa Bay, at Dallas, and at Green Bay before shocking the world by leading the Giants to a 17-14 win in the Super Bowl over the 18-0 New England Patriots.  He followed that up with his first Pro Bowl season in 2008 and gave the Giants the Number One seed in the NFC playoffs.  The Giants appear to be contenders for years to come now, led by Eli Manning and a top ranked defense. 

We really won't know the ramifications of this deal for another five to ten years.  So far it looks like a deal that really benefited both teams.  There is no guarantee that the Chargers would be better off with Eli Manning and no Merriman and Kadeing.  There is no guarantee the Giants would have been better off keeping Rivers.  They may not have taken the same players the Chargers did.   Rivers may not have panned out in New York without LT to help him in his formative years.  Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey, and Plaxico Burress caused a lot of drama for Eli Manning and took their toll on Manning early in his career.   How Rivers would have handled that is anyone's guess, especially given his more fiery personality.

Trades are ultimately judged by the Super Bowl titles they bring.  Eli Manning has the edge in that department.  If he is able to increase his total the Giants will be viewed as the winners of this trade.  If Rivers can eventually lead the Chargers to the Promised Land it will add even more intrigue to the debate.

There you have it.  Those are my ten most pivotal events in the NFL since 1978.  I have two questions for you?  First, do you think I got the list right or would you have included something else?  Is there an event that I overlooked?  With thirty years of NFL history I'm sure there are a lot of compelling arguments for other moves.  I'd love to read what you think the most important moments are over the last 30 years.

Second, what do you think is the most likely event that happened in the couple years that will be added to this list? 

There are two big ones I thought of.  One would be what would have happened if Bernard Pollard's hit had not ended Tom Brady's 2008 season?  The Patriots were 11-5 without him.  Do the Patriots make the Super Bowl with Brady?  Does that event make Matt Cassel the next big quarterback in the NFL?  Does that make the Chiefs Super Bowl Contenders now that they acquired him in a trade?  Does that injury mark the end of the Patriots dynasty?  If they don't ever compete for a Super Bowl again how many could they have won had Brady not been injured on that play?

The other one would be what if Michael Vick doesn't get in trouble for dog fighting charges?  Matt Ryan never makes his way to Atlanta in that scenario.  If the Falcons go on to win a Super Bowl with Ryan, Turner, and White that could be the pivotal event in turning that franchise around.  Plus we will have to see if Michael Vick gets back into the NFL and if so, does he improve his new team and help reverse their fortunes.  Only time will tell.

I always love these types of debates.  I look forward to reading your comments.  If you like this article and want to read other great football articles by great football minds please visit www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com.

First, I want to say that it feels good to be back on the boards.  I took a much-needed break since the Super Bowl only to break silence once to talk about the Favre retirement.  I am back to give my initial take on the free agency period.  This is the exciting or depressing time of the year where teams either sign big name players or lose stars to other teams.  As usual there was a lot of movement on the opening weekend of free agency. 

Please remember that with 32 teams in the NFL I can't mention every signing that every team made.  I tried to balance out my choices among the various divisions the best that I could.  Here are five teams that I think did very well for themselves and five teams that I think needed to do better. 

Winners

1) Kansas City Chiefs - I think the Kansas City Chiefs have established themselves as the big winner of free agency.  Not only do they add a potential franchise quarterback, but also they added a veteran linebacker to their front seven.  All for the price of the 34th pick in the draft.  That's a very cheap price to pay to add talent of that caliber.  

Tyler Thigpen did some good things last year.  He had 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.  He also had a 54.8 completion percentage and 76.0 QB rating.  Could he have improved on that total?  Absolutely.  But could they just go into the season with Brodie Croyle as their only insurance policy.  No way.   Now if Thigpen blows up you can still give him the job.  The Chiefs don't so much invested in Cassel that they can't go with Thigpen if he is clearly the better player in camp.  If Cassel shows what he showed in New England last year it is most likely going to be better than what Thigpen brings to the table.  Either way the Chiefs should have improved play at the quarterback spot over their 2008 production. 

Tony Gonzalez said he would consider staying with the Chiefs and backing off trade demands if they showed they were committed to improving the team.  Bringing in Matt Cassel goes a long way toward doing that.  So does bringing in Mike Vrabel.  Vrabel will be 34 years old when the season begins.  But he brings three Super Bowl rings from his Patriots days and is just a year removed from 12.5 sacks.  He brings leadership to a defense that is starving for it.  

Let's not forget the Chiefs still have the third pick in the draft.  They can use that to select an offensive lineman.  They can go with more defense to bolster the front seven.  They can use that on Michael Crabtree to give Cassel another quality target to go with Bowe and Gonzalez.

We might still see the Chiefs add some cheaper veteran players as free agency progresses.  Right now they have improved their team drastically for a very cheap price.  Great job for a team that has been in the dumps the last two years.  This could be the move that rejuvenates this franchise.  

2) Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks have been in desperate need of a number one receiver.  The last 1,200-yard receiver the Seahawks had was Koren Robinson in 2002.  The last ten-touchdown receiver they had was Darrell Jackson in 2006.  The last receiver that was able to do both 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in the same season was Joey Galloway back in 1997 and 1998.  Even though Matt Hasselbeck has had a lot of success in Seattle since 2002 he hasn't had that number one receiver he can rely on to dominate the game.  Instead he has relied on multiple above average receivers to move the ball.

TJ Houshmandzadeh gives them a guy with the potential to dominate opposing defenses.  In 2007 TJ led the NFL in receptions with 112.  He added 1,143 yards and 12 touchdowns.  Last year he had 92 catches for 904 yards and four touchdowns playing without Carson Palmer for the majority of the regular season.  While he is going to be 32 years old in September he is still relatively healthy and should be productive for the next few years.

Now the Seahawks have options with the fourth pick in the draft.  If they want to go with wide receiver they can take Michael Crabtree and suddenly have a potentially dangerous wide receiver on both sides of the ball.  If they want to improve their offensive line they could look at an Andre Smith or Jason Smith at tackle.   They could also go defense with Aaron Curry or Brian Orakpo.  

Before this move the Seahawks looked like they would have to take a wide receiver, which would have presumably been Crabtree.  Now if they aren't comfortable with his bill of health they can wait to address receiver and take the best available player.  While they lost DT Rocky Benard to the Giants they acquired DT Colin Cole from the Packers in free agency.   They have yet to experience a major loss in free agency.

The Seahawks made a big splash in free agency at one of their biggest areas of need.  With some smaller signings and a good draft they could be back on their way to competing in a NFC West that figures to be up for grabs, especially if Warner leaves Arizona.

3) Houston Texans - The Texans have been in a desperate need for a pass rush.  When you play in the same division as Peyton Manning you have to be able to get pressure on the quarterback.  Mario Williams has helped in that regard.  He made his first Pro Bowl with 12.0 sacks.  The Texans as a team had just 25 sacks.  They need a pass rusher from the other side.  Smith gives that to them.  He is 6' 4" and 285 lbs.  He can also stop the run.  

This isn't a guy that is going to give them 15 to 20 sacks.  The most sacks he's had in a single season is 5.5 in 2007.  What he is going to do is improve their run defense and allow them more flexibility in blitzing.  Defenses are going to have to account for him.  I would not be surprised if he has 8.0 to 10.0 sacks for the Texans.  His numbers should improve now that he is playing across from a player with the talent of Mario Williams.  They will both make each other better.  That will go a long way toward helping their defense.  

The Texans also re-signed four of their own free agents.  Tight end Joel Dreessen, Defensive End Stanley McClover, Center Chris White, and Safety Eugene Wilson all re-signed with the club.  That is important too.  While these guys aren't big name guys that were going to command $25.00 million dollar signing bonuses they were productive players on a team that won eight games in 2008.  Keeping them should help them continue to build on the good things they did last year.

4) New York Giants - Talk about the rich getting richer.  The New York Giants already have a great defensive line.  Justin Tuck was an All-Pro first team selection in 2008.  Fred Robins had 5.5 sacks from the defensive tackle spot. Mathias Kiwanuka had 8.0 sacks filling in for the injured Osi Umenyiora.  When Osi Umenyiora is healthy he is a 10 to 15-sack player.  

The Giants were able to add Chris Canty.  Chris Canty is 6' 7" tall and weighs 304 lbs.  He is big enough to play defensive tackle and athletic enough to line up at defensive end.  Not only do the Giants strengthen their defensive line, but they hurt a division rival in the Dallas Cowboys.  While Canty isn't as good as Albert Haynesworth he came at half the price tag.  His contract is valued at $42.00 million with $17.3 million guaranteed.  

That allowed them to sign defensive tackle Rocky Benard away from the Seahawks and Michael Boley away from the Falcons.  The Giants were a top five defense in 2008.  Adding these players is going to make them even tougher in 2009.  

The Giants are going to lose some power on offense.  Derrick Ward wanted to comeback and was willing to take a hometown discount.  After the Giants declined he signed a four-year deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for $17.00 million.  The Giants were able to lock up Brandon Jacobs and still have Ahmad Bradshaw to back him up.  The Giants will be fine at running back.  They will also be improved on defense.  That is a scary thought for the rest of the NFC.  The Giants have made some early moves that will help guarantee they remain the class of the NFC East.

5) New York Jets - The Jets have had a mixed bag this off-season.  The Brett Favre retirement did a lot of good for the team and also did a lot of bad.  Brett Favre was the best option they had coming back at quarterback.  When he retired that left them with Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff.  Neither of those players are going to be able to play at the level Favre did for the first 11 games of 2008 when the Jets were 8-3.  The problem is that Brett Favre probably wasn't going to be able to play at that level either.  If he wasn't going to play at that level, it was going to hurt them to pay his $13.00 million dollar salary.  If Favre was going to play like the guy from the last five games it's hard to justify spending that much money on him.

By him retiring it made their decision for them and freed up some cap room to sign free agents.  Ideally they would have liked to use that money on a quarterback, but there really wasn't anyone available.  The Jets were kidding themselves if they thought the Patriots would trade Matt Cassel in division to their biggest rival. 

They used that money to acquire Bart Scott from the Ravens.  His deal was a six-year one for $48.00 million with about $22.00 million guaranteed.  Not only is he a talented linebacker that has experience in the 3-4 defense that the Jets play, but he also has experience with Rex Ryan, who was his defensive coordinator in Baltimore.  This is a great signing.

Then to improve their 29th ranked defense they traded for Eagles cornerback Lito Sheppard.  All they had to do was give up a fifth round pick in the 2009 draft and a conditional 2010 pick that could be between a second and fourth round pick depending on performance.  The Jets than signed him to a four year $27.2 million contract extension.

This is going to help the Jets a lot.  Sheppard was a two time Pro Bowler in Philly with one appearance being as recent as 2006.  He was disgruntled in Philly and needed a fresh start.  If he plays the way he is capable of the Jets got a great deal.  He will be 28 when the season starts and should be effective for the length of the deal.  The same goes for Bart Scott who is 29 years old. 

Both moves should improve a defense that burned them down the stretch.  They can now focus their efforts on finding a quarterback with their first round pick and not having to worry about upgrading their secondary.  If they don't like the first round guys they can go wide receiver and address quarterback in the second round.  It gives them options. 

Unless the Jets find a quality signal caller they are going to struggle to make the playoffs.  But even if they found one they had to upgrade the defense.  Good job by the Jets of addressing the defense on the opening weekend of free agency.  If they can fix their quarterback situation they should in playoff contention in the 2009 season.  

Losers

1) Tennessee Titans - I think they were the biggest losers of the weekend and it had nothing to do with a bad signing.  Albert Haynesworth was the heart and soul of their defense the last two years.  The Titans were eighth in points allowed in 2007.  They were second in 2008.  Coach Fisher has a lot to do with that.  He's been coaching strong defenses in Tennessee for the bulk of his tenure that.  Kyle Vanden Bosch had a lot to do with the success of this defense.  Also credit Cortland Finnegan, Michael Griffin, Chris Hope, Keith Bulluch, Jevon Kearse, and a bunch of very talented defenders for that team's defensive success in 2008.  

The most talented of all their players was Albert Haynesworth.  He was the player no one had an answer for at the defensive tackle.  He was the main reason that their defensive ends were able to put pressure on the quarterback.  He was drawing those double teams that gave them easier paths to the quarterback.

In 2007 they didn't have Haynesworth for a three game stretch.  They lost 28-13 to Jacksonville, 34-20 to Denver, and 35-6 to Cincinnati.  In 2008 he didn't play the last two games of the season.  They still beat Pittsburgh, but lost to Indy while resting a lot of players the last game of the season.  I think they have added more talent since 2007, so I don't think they will be giving up twice as many points as they did this year simply because Haynesworth is not there.  

What I do think is that this makes a great defense an above average one.  For a team that only scored 18.8 points per game they can't contend for a Super Bowl unless they have a great defense.  While I could still see them winning eight to ten games and competing for a Wild Card spot, I think this is the end of the Titans being a Super Bowl contender or a top seed in the AFC.  Those are some big shoes to fill and there is no one on the Titans roster that can fill them.  

2) Washington Redskins - I wrote an article about why I thought this was a bad signing.  Click Here if you want to read it.  In short I think the Redskins did business as usual paying $150.00 million dollars with $65 million guaranteed to not upgrade their weakest unit, the offense.  I think the Redskins have again stole headlines in March by signing Albert Haynesworth and DeAngleo Hall.  I think their offense will continue to struggle in 2009 with an aging running back in Portis and no established receivers for Campbell to throw the ball to.  No offense to Santana Moss, but based on his play the last two seasons his best days are probably behind him.

3) New England Patriots - Floyd Reese was recently hired by the New England Patriots to be a senior advisor.  According to Tim Graham of ESPN.com he had talked to Reese about Cassel's value.  He had this to say. "It would have to be multiple choices and very high choices to get Cassel. Two first-rounders, or a one and a two and a three ... It'll be something very, very expensive."

Evidently Reese isn't being taken seriously in New England or his definition of expensive has changed in a couple months to now mean the 34th pick in the draft?  Let's put this in perspective.  The Green Bay Packers franchised DT Corey Williams in 2008, because they didn't want to lose him without compensation.  He was dealt to the Cleveland Browns for a second round pick that was the 56th pick in the draft?  The Chiefs not only received Cassel, but they acquired Mike Vrabel as well for the 34th pick.  

There are a ton of playoff teams that need quarterbacks.  The Minnesota Vikings need quarterback help.  The Carolina Panthers would be a good candidate to upgrade given how Delhomme played in the playoff loss to Arizona.  Tennessee has an old quarterback (Kerry Collins) and a couple poor quarterbacks (Simms and Young).  That doesn't include teams like Detroit, Kansas City, the New York Jets, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers that are in desperate need of quarterback play.  Even the Denver Broncos were looking to get in the mix.  I find it hard to believe that the best the Patriots could do was the 34th pick in the draft.

Maybe the Patriots wanted to say thank you to Scott Peoli for a job well done.  Maybe they didn't want to have to pay a lot of money to a first round pick.  The risk of holding on to Cassel was that they would overplay their hand and risk getting nothing.  They really couldn't keep two quarterbacks on their roster at the cost of over $27.00 million.  Regardless, they didn't get equal value conidering how hard quality starters are to find and now the Patriots now lost their insurance policy if Tom Brady's knee doesn't heal properly.  They also lost a leader on their defense, granted that he was getting up there in years.

Furthermore, I don't like the Fred Taylor signing.  People are comparing this to the Corey Dillon signing.  The only similarity is they both play running back.  Corey Dillon was 29 years old when he left Cincinnati.  Fred Taylor is 32 years old.  Taylor had 2,428 carries in Jacksonville.   Dillon only had 1,865 with Cincinnati.  The Bengals got rid of Corey Dillon, because he was disgruntled with management and they had Rudi Johnson.  The Jags got rid of Fred Taylor, because they don't think he is a viable NFL back anymore.  

Corey Dillon had 1,635 yards rushing and 12 rushing touchdowns his first year with New England.  If Fred Taylor gets that I would be shocked.  I think he is going to be injured and will be lucky to break 800 yards and five rushing touchdowns.   It's only a two year deal worth five million dollars, so it isn't like they mortgaged their future to sign him.  I just don't think he is going to help.  The Patriots are the best-run front office in the NFL so I am sure that everything will work out.  On paper these moved don't make a lot of sense to me.     

4) Arizona Cardinals - The Arizona Cardinals evidently don't intend to repeat as Super Bowl runner ups.  They are going to go for 6-10 again.  They lost starting defensive end Antonio Smith to the Houston Texans for five years and $35 million.  That was expected.  They realistically weren't going to be able to keep Dansby, Warner, and Boldin.  This is typical of what happens to teams that make the Super Bowls.  They have more players in demand than they have salary to give.  

What is confusing is that there seems to be no urgency to resign Kurt Warner.  There also appears to be no attempt to resolve Aquan Boldin's contract.  Warner wants a two to three year deal for $14 to $16 million.  The Cardinals want to pay $10 to $12 million with only one year guaranteed.  As a result he is visiting with the 49ers with his wife Brenda and taking a physical.  At this point this looks like much more than a negotiation ploy.  He very likely got sick of Arizona's below market value offers and decided to look elsewhere.

Last I checked Kurt Warner had 4,401 yards passing, 30 touchdowns, and 14 picks.  He is coming off a postseason where he had 11 touchdowns and three interceptions.  His lowest rating was 93.2 in the playoff game against the Panthers.  He had a 145.7 rating in the NFC Championship game and a 112.3 QB rating in the Super Bowl against a defense that hadn't allowed a 300-yard passer this season.   He is deserving of top five-quarterback money, which is about $14.00 million.  

Evidently the Cardinals believe that Matt Leinart is ready to step into the spotlight.  If the Cardinals were that serious about resigning Warner he wouldn't be visiting San Francisco right now.  It is inexcusable that Warner's contract is not done yet.  Warner should stay in Arizona, because unfortunately for him the 49ers don't have the receivers the Cardinals have.  That said the Cardinals have to pay for him to stay.  If they do lose him to San Fran not only will they be worse, but the 49ers will be the favorite to win the division.  Warner without those Arizona receivers is still an upgrade over Shaun Hill.

Bill Bidwell has a reputation for being cheap when it comes to giving players contract.  This isn't the time to be stingy.  The NFC West is a very weak division.  With Warner, Fitzgerald, and Boldin leading the way they could win this division for the next two to three years.  Without Warner the Cardinals are going to be depending on Leinart, a guy who is better known for his pool parties and USC party days than anything he has done on the NFL field.  If they don't get this deal done they will regret it in January of 2010 when they are watching the playoffs on TV.  

5) Green Bay Packers - Ted Thompson continues to be a major disappointment in free agency.  The Packers crashed from 13-3 to 6-10 in 2008.  The Packers basically sat out the entire free agency period and lost Brett Favre to "retirement."  While the offense put up great numbers under first year starter Aaron Rodgers, the defense ranked among the worst in the NFL.  As a result the Packers cleaned house on defense and hired Dom Capers.  The plan is to go from a 4-3 defense back to a 3-4 defense.  The last time the Packers played a 3-4 defense was in 1991.  

Evidently the Packers think the scheme was their only problem, because they aren't adding any new players.  For those of you that don't know switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 is a big deal.  Players that are solid in a 4-3 scheme will not necessarily have the skill set to play a 3-4.  You need a massive nose tackle.  You need linebackers that can also play end.  The Packers don't have quality players like that on their roster.  There is no Vince Wilfork at DT.  There is not James Harrison on the outside.  

The Packers probably need to find three to four new starters in the off-season to make that transition.  The Packers have an estimated $32.00 million in cap space for 2009.  Chris Canty is 6-7 and 304 lbs.  He can play both end and defensive tackle.  He played in Dallas, which runs a 3-4 scheme.  He is the type of veteran player you have to sign.  The Giants got him instead.  Furthermore, they lost 6' 1" 330 lb Colin Cole to the Seahawks.  That leaves the Packers with Justin Harrell, Johnny Jolly, Alfred Malone, Ryan Pickett, and Anthony Toribio as the Packers remaining defensive tackle.  Now, they will almost certainly have to draft a rookie DT, which will not allow them to address getting younger at cornerback, offensive tackle, and upgrade the linebacker spot early in the draft.  

There is nothing magic about a 3-4 defense.  Cleveland ran that in 2007 and 2008 and their defense stinks.  You need quality players to execute any scheme.  For the third straight year the Packers have tons of salary cap and they sit out the first weekend of free agency.  

It is becoming even clearer to me why Brett Favre was frustrated with Ted Thompson.  What are they waiting for?  I don't want to see Ted Thompson take a Dan Snyder or Jerry Jones approach to free agency.  That doesn't mean he has to take the other extreme.  I don't even know if he knows that free agency started yet.  For a guy that is a 6-10 season away from probably being unemployed you think he would want to dab into his self proclaimed dangerous waters of free agency and see if there are any players that can improve the team.  Simply taking bad players from a 4-3 scheme and plugging them into a 3-4 scheme is not the answer.

As a fan of the Packers it is very disappointing to see this scenario play out again.  When the stadium was renovated and they received Wisconsin tax dollars using the justification was that this move was necessary to remain competitive in the NFL and in free agency.  Evidently that means signing nobody. There is no reason they should be that far under the cap year after year, especially coming off a 6-10 season.  If the Packers miss the playoffs again Ted Thompson should be out of there.

What were your thoughts on free agency?  Are you happy with what your team did or are you hoping that your team fires the GM while there are still some players left?  Let me know your thoughts.

For those of you that don't follow my blog regularly I usually post articles every Tuesday.  That is my plan during the NFL off-season.  I'll probably do a mix of NFL updates and other fun stuff until the draft gets here.  After the draft I will announce when I will begin my third annual divisional previews.

I also have some good articles up on the www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com website.  Click Here if you want to read about my take on Denver and Jay Cutler.  If you want to see what The Maniaxs thinks about your favorite team Click Here.  Sean Haugh, Fantasy Dr X, and myself teamed up to write previews for every team entering the offseason.  The reports address all 32 teams strengths and weaknesses and the best way to improve those in free agency and the draft. 

There is never a slow moment in the NFL.  Stay tuned to my blog and the website for informative takes about what is going around the NFL. 

I'm sure most of you have heard the news that Brett Favre retired again. If this is finally the end it will mark the retirement of one of the greatest athletes in the the history of the NFL.

I have been going back and forth about whether I would do an article looking back at his legacy. I typed it about three weeks ago and it is ready to go. I think all the comments would be arguing about the retirement drama and would have little to do with what he did on the field. I don't want that to be the main discussion of an article reflecting on his legendary career. Therefore I am going to publish it in September at the beginning of next season when it is obvious that he is not coming back and when the drama surrounding his retirement is no longer the front and center of the story.

I also don't think this story is necessarily done yet. In Ed Werder's ESPN report he wrote the following, "While Favre did not directly broach the subject of the team simply releasing him so that he might have the option of signing with another team such as the Minnesota Vikings, a source said that Cook informally discussed the option with the Jets. The Jets respectfully declined that option, the source said."

That doesn't sound like a guy that wants to retire. That sounds like a guy that wants a change of scenery. We'll see how concerned Favre is about protecting his legacy when July rolls around this year. There is no way the Jets can trade Favre to the Vikings. It would cost them three first round picks. If he is going to play for the Vikings he is going to have to create a circus where the Jets have no option but to release him to make the story go awy. They aren't going to voluntarily do that.

If he goes into the sunset quietly he is at a point where in a couple years the 2008 season will be forgotten. His playing for the Jets will be a footnote in a Hall of Fame career. If he wants to do the same thing he did last year and tries to force his way back to the Jets to get his release he is going to have to create a mess to do that. That's not going to help his legacy.

I maintain that once a legend always a legend, unless you kill someone, allegedly. OJ lost his legend card in 1994. Favre isn't going to lose his legend status because he hangs around the NFL for a year or two longer than he should. The problem if he pushes this Viking deal is that he is also going to be remembered for things that weren't indicative of his legendary career. If he pursues forcing his way to the Vikings it is not going to be about playing anymore. His only motivation would be revenge on the Packers. It's going to be about going into Lambeau to show them they made a mistake. Is that how he wants to be remembered? His last years playing to get back at the Packers, not for the love of the game.

He doesn't need that on his legendary resume. There's a small part of me that wants to see that, but you could only understand that if you were a Packer fan whose favorite player was Favre that also lived in Minnesota for three years. If the scenario plays out I'll tell you why there is a small part of me that would enjoy seeing Favre in a Viking uniform.

Furthermore, Packer fans that rooted for Favre this year with the non-threatening Jets will not find it as easy to buy a purple uniform. If you thought the segment of the Packer Nation that didn't like him were vocal this year; watch the reaction if he is wearing a Vikings uniform. There are going to be some people that will never get back on the Favre train.

I hope this is it. His arm gave out down the stretch. Three of the last four years that has been the case. You could see he didn't have a lot of mobility last year. It's time. While he was still able to finish in the top 10 in completions, attempts, and passing touchdowns there were too many interceptions. Chalk it up to an injured arm, age, and learning a new system. But the big thing is age. He is going to be 40 years old and he isn't going to get healthier and stronger over the course of the NFL season.

I could watch Favre play for the rest of my life. He was the most exciting player to ever play the quarterback position. He had a great personality. He was fun. He was spontaneous. Most of all he was one of the best. Last year that wasn't the case. He wasn't having fun at the end of the season. He wasn't one of the best at the end of the season. I don't want to see Willie Mays with the Mets. I don't want to see Jordan with the Bullets. If he comes back next year he is risking his streak coming to an end by benching. Nobody wants to see that streak end anyway other than retirement. While watching Favre in his first 264 starts was a good as it got, I could do without the last five starts. I don't ever need to see that again.

I think this is it. But we'll see. If we are going to look at history for an answer history says this story isn't over it's just getting started.

For those of you that follow my blog reguarly I still plan on taking a couple weeks off.  I told you if something big broke I would comment on it and I think this qualifies.  If Warner retires before March I'll also have something on that.  Otherwise I'll answer comments on this article for the rest of the week and then see you in March.

I present to you my final newsletter of the 2008-09 season.  I will not only look at the Super Bowl, but I'll talk about some stories emerging from the franchises that either didn't make the playoffs or are no longer in the playoffs.  I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, but please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of Super Bowl Sunday.

Standings: Click Here to View the NFL Standings

MVP of the Super Bowl:  In a 27-23 game that goes down to the final seconds there are usually a lot of important plays.  The voters could have gone a lot of different directions. Santonio Holmes was a very deserving choice.  He had nine catches for 131 yards and one touchdown catch.  The Steelers had two other deserving candidates.  Big Ben, who was 21 for 30 with 256 yards passing, one touchdown, and one pick.  His poise in the fourth quarter was a big key.  Finally, James Harrison deserved consideration.  He owns the longest play in Super Bowl history with a 100-yard return for a touchdown to close the second quarter.

For the Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald completed the finest postseason ever for a wide receiver.  He had one catch for 12 yards heading into the fourth quarter.  In the fourth quarter he added six catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns, including the 64-yard run and catch that gave the Cardinals their first lead in the fourth quarter.  Fitzgerald had 30 receptions for 546 yards receiving and seven touchdowns in four postseason games.  All three are NFL records.  His postseason established himself as the best receiver in the NFL.  Kurt Warner was also very solid going 31 for 43 with 377 yards passing, three touchdowns, and one pick.   224 of those passing yards came in the fourth quarter.  Minus the pick he played an amazing game.     

Loser of the Week: About the only negative thing I can say about the game are all the penalties.  Arizona had 11 penalties for 106 yards and Pittsburgh added seven penalties for 56 yards.  One Pittsburgh offensive holding call in the end zone resulted in a safety.  There were so many personal foul penalties for grabbing face mask, roughing the kicker, and unnecessary roughness.  You hope to see fewer penalties on the biggest stage.  Aside from that everyone gave a great effort.

Overall Impressions the Super Bowl:

1) Pittsburgh Steelers - In all honesty the Steelers needed to win this game.  Arizona isn't getting a lot of flack right now.  They are being praised for getting back in the game.  Had they lost people would not be as kind to the Steelers.  Instead, they would be talking about them blowing a 13-point fourth quarter lead, which would have been the biggest fourth quarter lead blown in Super Bowl history.  A lot of people's reputations would have taken a hit.  In particular a quarterback that is supposed to be a big game player and a defense that is supposed to be among the best in NFL history.  

Big Ben had a lot to lose in this game.  People also would have talked about him not coming up big in the Super Bowl, again.  In the first three quarters he was 15 for 21 for 162 yards, zero passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, one pick, and a QB rating of 73.9.  Once the lead was blown, even though it wasn't entirely his fault, he was going to take some heat for a pretty average performance.  Instead, he cemented his Super Bowl legacy by going six for nine for 94 yards, one touchdown, zero picks, and a 138.2 QB rating.  That was probably the biggest quarter of his young professional career.

Prior to the fourth quarter I thought the Steelers had played very well.  But I was thinking here we go again.  The Steelers are going to win and people will be singing the praises of Big Ben.  But what has he really done.  James Harrison was the MVP of the Super Bowl at that point with his 100-yard interception return.  The defense had held Larry Fitzgerald to one catch for 12 yards.  The defense had surrendered only seven points.  He's a good quarterback playing in a great situation with a defense that dominates like very few are able to do in today's game.   Had the media hyped him at that point, I wouldn't have agreed with the attention he was receiving.  

There are plenty of quarterbacks that have played three quarters of football like he did and found himself trailing 20-7 going into the final period.  There are quarterbacks that have put up better numbers and lost.  Look at Big Ben's opponent.  Kurt Warner has the top three yardage totals in Super Bowl history and came out a loser for the second time.  Warner joins Rodger Staubach and Brett Favre as quarterbacks that lost Super Bowls with three touchdown passes.  It's hard enough to win that game playing great.  Big Ben is fortunate that he plays on a team that has such a great defensive unit that gave up only seven points through the first three quarters when he wasn't on top of his game.   Had they not played so well in the first three quarters he wouldn't have been in a very good position.

That said the defense was more fortunate that Big Ben was there quarterback on Sunday than the other way around.  The offensive line failed the team by holding in the end zone on a third down completion that resulted in a first down.  Instead the play resulted in the first Super Bowl safety since Bruce Smith in 1990.  The next series the defense gave up what looked like the biggest play of the season.  Larry Fitzgerald scored a 64-yard touchdown to give the Cardinals a three-point lead.  In the snap of a finger three great quarters of football were undone and the Steelers trailed 23-20.  The Steelers defense is designed to prevent that very thing from occurring.  That defense doesn't normally give up a lead like that.

At that moment things looked pretty bleak.  The Steelers had just given up a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter.  Their defense, which I believe had not allowed a 300-yard passer all season had given up the bulk of Warner's 224 fourth quarter yards passing in one quarter.  Then after the Steelers took over at the Arizona 22-yard line another holding penalty took the ball back to the 12-yard line for a first and 20 yards to go.  If the Cardinals didn't look like Super Bowl champions at that moment, let's just say that fat lady that everyone talks about had her voice warmed up and was headed out of the tunnel to start singing.  

You need a big time quarterback to settle things down and get the ball rolling again.  Big Ben never lost his focus.  He never lost faith.  He calmly moved the ball 88 yards down the field.  Santonio Holmes had four receptions for 73 yards and one incredible sideline catch on that final drive.  He had the big 14-yard catch that got them out of the holding penalty.  He had the big 13-yard catch that converted a third and six for a first down.  He had the big 40-yard line that put them at the doorstep of the title.  Then he had one of the best catches you will ever see on the sideline that scored the winning touchdown.

You have to give both those guys a lot of credit on that final drive.  For Big Ben that was a legacy defining moment.   He joins Joe Montana and Tom Brady with a legendary final drive in the Super Bowl.  He becomes a two-time Super Bowl champion.  Unlike his first Super Bowl win where the Steelers basically won in spite of his 22.6 QB rating, he was instrumental in winning this game.  Holmes was a very deserving choice for MVP, but they could have just as easily given it to Big Ben.   That was as gutsy of a performance as you will see in the fourth quarter.

Both players are two young to be considered Hall of Fame players at this point, especially Santonio Holmes.  Holmes has just completed his third NFL season and has never had a 1,000-yard season or a 10-touchdown catch season.  Heading into this game he had a very disappointing third season with just 54 catches for 821 yards and five receiving touchdowns.  

But he came up huge time and time again in the playoffs.  In the Super Bowl he took that to another level.  We'll see if he can build on this or basically become another Deion Branch; a guy that has been a good NFL player, but has never realized the potential that people thought he had after being named a Super Bowl MVP.  If Holmes does go on to have a Pro Bowl filled career this game is going to be considered the turning point in his career and the birth of a great player.

Big Ben also has some work to do.  This win cements him as one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL today.  That is what a fourth quarter like that does for your legacy.  To me the top five quarterbacks in the game right now are in alphabetical order 1) Tom Brady, 2) Drew Brees, 3) Peyton Manning, 4) Phillip Rivers, and 5) Ben Roethlisberger.  Eli Manning is on the cusp and no one would be silly for putting him in the discussion. Brett Favre is also in the discussion.  The guy is still a legend as he is only one year removed from finishing runner up in the MVP race and was very solid this year until his arm gave out the last five games.  Cutler, Romo, Rodgers, and Ryan could make a run if they continue to put up good numbers and start having some success in the playoffs.  But those five have to be considered the best quarterbacks in the game right now if you are going to look at a combination of regular season statistics and postseason success over the last three to five years.

Big Ben still has more work to do to get to the Hall of Fame.  He isn't at the point where he can just retire and get in.  He isn't the greatest quarterback ever.  He needs to have better seasons than the 3,301 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 15 picks.  He needs some more years in the NFL to put up bigger career numbers.  But at just 26 years old he has already won two Super Bowls and has a 7-2 playoff record.  His only two losses were the New England Championship Game his rookie year and the loss to Jacksonville last year.  He has a legacy defining game and a drive that will be talked about for all time.  At 26 years old he doesn't have to win another playoff game to make the Hall of Fame.  At this point it is being able to stay in the NFL for another eight to ten years to put up the necessary numbers to warrant induction.  There aren't many 26 year olds that can say they don't need to win another postseason game to get into the Hall of Fame.     

Finally, it is a well-deserved honor for the Pittsburgh Steelers as a whole.  With that win Mike Tomlin becomes the youngest head coach to win a Super Bowl and the second black head coach to win the Super Bowl.  The nice thing is that unlike when Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith were in the Super Bowl, that wasn't the biggest story of the week.  It's a good thing that we are getting to a point where the color of a quarterback or head coach's skin doesn't dominate the headlines and we can just talk about the quality of the individuals participating in the game.  Mike Tomlin has made quite a name for himself in just two years as a Head Coach.  That guy has the potential to go down as an all-time great. I love his intensity, winning attitude, and knowledge for the game at such a young age.  It's early for him to, but that was a big notch in his belt.  

It's funny that we talk about the Steelers and success in the same sentence.  To people my age (I'm 30) it seems so natural.  To our grandparents the Steelers were the lovable NFL losers.  From 1933 to 1972 the Steelers never won a playoff game.  During that time a winning season was a major accomplishment.  Their first playoff win in franchise history came in the form of an Immaculate Reception 40 years into the team's existence.  Legendary owner Art Rooney Sr. didn't even see the play, because he was heading down to the locker room to congratulate the team on the best season in franchise history and a job well done.

This team's fortunes changed in 1969 when they hired Chuck Noll.  They have had only two other head coaches since. Since 1974 the Steelers have the most Super Bowl appearances in the NFL with seven.  Only Dallas has more overall with eight.  They lead the NFL in Super Bowl titles with six.  The only teams to compete with them in regards to titles won since 1974 are the Los Angeles Lakers, who have eight NBA titles, the New York Yankees, who have six MLB titles, and the Montreal Canadians, who have six Stanley Cups.  This win gives the Steelers a 6-1 record in the Big Game.  If you had told someone that the Steelers were headed for this type of greatness in 1969 they would have looked at you the same way as if I told you the Cubs were going to win four World Series titles in the next ten years.

While this franchise had humble beginnings it stands among the most proud franchises in professional sports. The Steelers have become a symbol of excellence in the Super Bowl era.  What a great honor for a very deserving city and fan base.  

2) Arizona Cardinals - Usually when a team loses a Super Bowl the natural reaction is to start looking to blame people.  The Arizona Cardinals are no different in that regard.  While they played well enough to win they made enough mistakes to have regrets.  The penalties are a big place to start.  They had over 100-yards in penalties.  That is one of the highest in Super Bowl history.

The play that everyone is going to wonder about is the play at the end of the second quarter.  Trailing 10-7 with less than 30 seconds left and no timeouts Warner dropped back and threw a pick to James Harrison.  Not only did Harrison keep at least three points off the board, but he returned the ball a NFL record 100-yards for a touchdown.  Instead of the score being 14-10 Arizona, 10-10, or 10-7 Pittsburgh with Arizona having the ball to start the second half it was 17-7 Pittsburgh.  It doesn't take a NFL expert to identify that as a changing moment in the game.  If you are an Arizona fan you are left to wonder what might have been had that play not happened.  

Speaking as a fan of a team (Green Bay) and a player (Favre) that has suffered some of the most heartbreaking losses in NFL history, I know how the Arizona Cardinals feel.  I wasn't alive when the Packers won their trophies in the 1960s.  I have memories of Lindy Infante and Mike Holmgren.  To me they were the team that kept losing to America's Team every season.  

After they got over the mountaintop in 1996 I watched some of the most frustrating playoff losses in NFL history.  Green Bay losing to Denver in the Super Bowl.  The Catch II.  4th and 26.  Last year's OT loss to the Giants.  As fun as 1996 was those games are still special in a different way.  It makes you appreciate how hard it is to win the Super Bowl and how many things have to go your way.  Having a good team or a great quarterback isn't enough.

I'll never tell anyone, "Don't worry there is always next year."  Tell that to a Dan Marino fan.   Tell that to the Buffalo Bills.  In 1996 I thought the Packers had the talent in place to win at least two or three more Super Bowls.  They appeared in one more and none since 1997.  When you have a 9-7 regular season, a Cinderella run, and a 38 year old quarterback whose carriage could turn into a pumpkin any year as the foundation of your team it's easy to see that the window might not stay open that long.  That was Arizona's best chance.  They could easily return next year, but it is far from a sure thing.

People can criticize a lot of things from that game.  The pick returned 100-yards.  The personal foul penalties.  Seven points scored in the first three quarters.  But in the fourth quarter you saw what Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and that team was about.  This team has a different attitude than Cardinals teams from years past.  Not only did Warner pass for 224 yards in that fourth quarter, but he also they did it against a team that usually allows only 156 yards of passing per game.  They scored 16 points in the fourth quarter against a team that allows 13.9 points per game in the regular season.  Larry Fitzgerald turned in a quarter for the ages with six catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns after being shutout for the first three quarters.  That was as good of an offensive quarter as you will ever see by a team on that stage against that type of opponent.

The Cardinals made mistakes.  As a result they didn't get a ring.  They didn't get to hoist the trophy.  But that team showed a championship spirit in the fourth quarter.  They battled against all odds and took the lead in a game they had no business leading in.  They were on the brink of winning the Super Bowl.  While the final result was disappointing they have nothing to hang their head about.  They left it all out on the field and at the end of the day that just wasn't enough.  There is an old saying that we didn't lose, we just ran out of time.  If that was ever true it was true in Super Bowl XLIII.

I think too often we get caught up in just counting rings and tallying up legacies without stopping to appreciate the game and enjoy the art of competition.  There can be only one champion and if you were ever going to give out two Lombardi Trophies that would have been the game to do it.  It seems like a shame that the 1989 Broncos who lost 55-10 in the Super Bowl have the same thing to show for their effort as the 2008 Arizona Cardinals; a whole lot of nothing.   

Arizona didn't deserve to lose that game anymore than Pittsburgh deserved to win that game.  You play that terrible for twelve minutes in the fourth quarter you deserve to lose.  Pittsburgh was one great drive away from finding themselves in that predicament.  But if you play bad for the first three quarters, you don't really deserve to win either.  

In the end there is no formula for determining who is going to win and who is going to lose.  It's impossible to tell who deserves it more.  You play the game for sixty minutes and whoever has the lead wins the game.   Pittsburgh played more good minutes than Arizona and they played more-good clutch minutes than Arizona did.  They deserved to win in that respect.  But anyone that doesn't appreciate the effort Arizona put in has no business watching organized sports. No one wants there season to end that way.

Even though they came out on the losing end I have more respect for Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and that entire team than I ever had for them five weeks ago.  They treated us to a wonderful postseason and they deserve a lot of credit for it.  They made the Arizona Cardinals relevant, something no one thought was possible.

When the Steelers had their wonderful 1972 season hey needed an Immaculate Reception to beat the Oakland Raiders.  That win reenergized a city and helped created the Steelers, as we now know them.  They lost to Miami in the next playoff game and didn't bring home the trophy in 1972.  They would have to wait until 1974.  From that point on their fortunes changed forever.  Maybe this was Arizona's Immaculate Reception postseason that reenergizes what was thought to be a dead franchise.  Only time will tell.  

3) The Greatest Super Bowl Ever - Some people will be quick to proclaim this the greatest Super Bowl ever.  You can't just name every Super Bowl decided by less than seven points the greatest Super Bowl ever.  To me great Super Bowls not only have to be exciting, but historically significant to be called great.  A situation where a few plays going differently might have altered the course of NFL History. 

The five greatest Super Bowls to me in chronological order are as follows:

a) Super Bowl XIII - Pittsburgh 35 vs. Dallas 31 - Not only did it decide the team of the 1970's, but it featured Hall of Fame Head Coaches, Quarterbacks, and Running Backs for each team.  A total of 17 Hall of Famers participated in the game.   It was a great game the whole way.  Dallas is still the only team to score 30 or more points in a Super Bowl and still lose.

b) Super Bowl XXIII - San Francisco 20 vs. Cincinnati 16 - This gave Montana his third Super Bowl ring and cemented his legacy as one of the greatest postseason quarterbacks of all time.  His 90-yard drive in the final minutes brought the 49ers from down three to World Champions and the team of the 1980s.  It also established Super Bowl MVP Jerry Rice as a prime time playoff performer.  Everyone knew he was good before that postseason.  This is when he ceased to be good and became great.  

c) Super Bowl XXV - New York Giants 20 vs. Buffalo 19 - It was a close game down to the wire.  It gave Parcells and the original LT their second Lombardi Trophy.  It was the start of Buffalo losing four straight Super Bowls.  This was the only one they were competitive in.  Norwood's missed 47-yard field goal is one of the most famous endings in Super Bowl history and the symbol of frustration for the Buffalo Bills.

d) Super Bowl XXXII - Devner 31 vs. Green Bay 24 - Two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in John Elway and Brett Favre.  John Elway going for his first Super Bowl title after going 0-3 in his first three Super Bowls.  Favre the three-time MVP of the NFL looking to repeat as Super Bowl Champion.  At stake would ultimately be the team of the second half of the 1990s.  Denver would go on to win in 1998 to win back-to-back titles.  Had Green Bay won this game they would have held that honor.  Don't discount the head-coaching match up.  When you rank Holmgren vs. Shanahan this game puts Shanahan over the top.  Had the result been different, Holmgren is probably looked at in the same light as Shanahan. Finally, it ended a run of thirteen consecutive championships for the NFC.  This game marked the switch in power back to the AFC after years of blowouts and frustration.

e) Super Bowl XLII - New York 17 vs. New England 14 - Not only was this game exciting, but immediately significant.  It stopped the New England Patriots from completing the first 19-0 season and the first undefeated season since the 1972 Miami Dolphins.  It stopped Brady from joining Bradshaw and Montana at 4-0 in the Super Bowl.  It stopped The Hood from joining Noll as the only head coach with four Super Bowls.  That's enough immediate history to know it's a big game with historical significance.  On the Giants side Michael Strahan retired a champion, Eli Manning joined his brother as a Super Bowl winner and MVP, and David Tyree's catch will go down as one of the top five plays in the history of the Super Bowl.  

Even though I don't have it in my top five I'd also be pretty ignorant not to mention Super Bowl XXXVI, which was the birth of Tom Brady and the Patriots dynasty over a potential one in the St Louis Rams.  The more exciting games the NFL plays the harder it will become to have a top five.  

But the danger in naming Super Bowls as great to quickly is that they can't hold the label as easily as the years pass.  The Titans and Rams played in Super Bowl XXXIV.  It's still considered a great game.  The Rams stopped the Titans from sending the game to OT on the last play of the game.  But Steve McNair and Eddie George never established themselves as Hall of Famers.  The Rams never won another Super Bowl.  Other than the game itself and the Hall of Fame Rams players earning their rings there isn't a lot of history making there.    

At this moment this game has none of the things those other great Super Bowls I mentioned.  It shouldn't, it was just played on Sunday. That's why you have to let things play out, unless it's like last years Super Bowl where it's so obvious it hits you in the face.  

We know the game was exciting.  There's no doubt about that.  What we don't know is if it was historically significant.  If Arizona has another fifty years like the previous fifty it doesn't mean much on their end.  On the other hand, if Big Ben and Kurt Warner both make the Hall of Fame it will add to the importance of the game.  The more of their teammates that join them in Canton the better it becomes.  Tomlin and Whisenhunt are also young coaches.  This may be the first of many trips for these two coaches.  It could determine who has the better legacy.  This may be the beginning of the next great NFL rivalry, similar to what the Cowboys and Steelers had in the 1970s.

It has the excitement factor and will always be remembered for that.  Time will tell if it can reach the importance those other games had.  In that regard, it has a very large standard to live up to.

Here are three other stories not related to the playoffs that made some news this week.    

4) Hall of Fame Results - There isn't too much to complain about with the results.  Two of my Top Ten Snubs (click here to read the article) made it in G Randall McDaniel and LB Derrick Thomas.  They were my number two and number three snubs.  

Bruce Smith and Rod Woodson were eligible for the Hall for the first time this year.  Both were easily first ballot Hall of Famers.  I'm very happy Ralph Wilson made the Hall of Fame.  Ralph Wilson deserved to be there a long time ago and is 90-years old.  While he is in great health it would be unfortunate if they kept putting off his induction and he were to pass away before he received this long overdue and well deserved honor.  

There are two players I'm struggling with.  What did Chris Carter do to piss off the Hall of Fame Voters?  When he retired I assumed he would be a first ballot Hall of Famer.  For him to be passed over twice is a complete shock to me.  

Chris Carter is an eight-time Pro Bowl selection.  They were all made consecutively from 1993-2000.  He is a two-time All Pro first team selection.  He is a member of the 1990s All Decade team, an honor voted on by the Hall of Fame voters.  

Chris Carter was as durable as they come.  He started 16 games ten times from 1991 to 2001.  In that span he missed four games back in 1992.  He led the NFL in touchdown receptions three times.  He had back-to-back 122 reception seasons in 1994 and 1995.  He had eight consecutive 1,000-yard seasons from 1993 to 2000.  What more do you want?

Carter ranks third in career receptions with 1,101.  The only other players with over 1,000 catches are Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Tim Brown, and Isaac Bruce.  He is seventh in receiving yards with 13,899.  The only players ahead of him are the players I already mentioned, as well as Terrell Owens and James Lofton.  Finally, he ranks fourth in touchdown receptions.  The only players ahead of him are Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss.  Carter's 130 receiving touchdowns are more than Jim Brown scored in his career.  

Lost in all that is the fact that Carter played with a different starting quarterback almost every season, which is a main reason he struggled to carry his team to a Super Bowl.  Carter played for Wade Wilson, Rich Gannon, Sean Salisbury, Jim McMahon, Warren Moon, Brad Johnson, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George, and Daunte Culpepper.  The only one of those players is in or will make the Hall of Fame is Warren Moon, who came to the Vikings at age 38.  He started for two seasons.  

I believe that Chris Carter could have been even more dominant if he had been able to play with Joe Montana and Steve Young for most of his career, similar to what Jerry Rice did.  The fact that this guy can't get into the Hall of Fame is ridiculous.  He is a first Ballot talent and one of the best receivers to ever play the game.  He's a top ten receiver in my mind.  When you read that coming from someone that is a born and raised Packer fan that despised the Vikings and Chris Carter, it should tell you something.   I have as much respect for what Carter did on the field as just about any of the division opponents the Packers played during his era.  On offense the only other NFC North players I feared more in his era were Barry Sanders and Randy Moss.  

The other player I struggled with was Bob Hayes.  This has nothing to do with him getting in and Chris Carter not getting in.  They are separate arguments.  I understand he has been gaining some momentum in recent years and almost made it in 2004.  It is very unfortunate that he passed away in 2002 and is not around to see this most esteemed honor.  

Bob Hayes was a three-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro.  All of those honors came from 1965 to 1969.  He is one of the best deep threats to ever play the game.  He won gold medals in track and field at the 1964 Olympics.  He is the only player in NFL history to own both a Super Bowl ring and an Olympic Gold Medal.  

Hayes is a guy whose case looks better on video that the stat sheet.  He used that speed to blow by defenders.  He averaged 20.0 yards per catch for his career.  He's one of only twelve men to have that high of an average.  The 26.1 yards per catch he averaged in 1970 is the fifth highest single season total.  Most years 18.0 to 19.0 yards per catch leads the NFL, especially in today's game.  He was also a fantastic return man.  When he came into the NFL the league had seen nothing like him.  Think Willie Gault when he came to the Bears back in 1983, but a much more polished receiver.  For the younger readers think a shorter version of Randy Moss when he came to the Vikings.  Unstoppable speed and athleticism.

Here is what I find interesting about Hayes's selection.  45 of his 71 touchdown catches came in his first four years in the league.  59 of his 71 touchdowns came in the first six years of his career.  From the age of 29 to 33 (when he retired) he averaged 17 catches for 327 yards and 2.4 touchdown catches.  That's not very good in any era.  He scored four touchdowns in his last four seasons in the NFL.  That's also not very good.  

When you have selections like this you have to wonder what the criteria is for selection.  The arguments that people use against Kurt Warner, Terrell Davis, Sterling Sharpe and other similar candidates is that they only were able to put together four of five good seasons.  The problem is that if Bob Hayes is now a Hall of Famer, why should that matter?  Those players should also be considered, should they not?  Davis and Sharpe were dominant for four or five years and did some amazing things in their injury-shortened careers.  Kurt Warner has been amazing from 1999-2001 in St Louis and 2007-2008 in Arizona.  Yet I hear from some people that he has more work to do.

I realize that Bob Hayes came up through the Veteran Committee; so to act like he's getting a gift is far fetched.  Carter has only waited two years, so they aren't even in the same class with regards to the waiting game.  Hayes is gaining induction over 30 years after he retired.  This isn't a first ballot guy that is being held up as a Legend of Legends.  He's a borderline guy that is finally getting his due.  Some voters feel that Chris Carter is a Hall of Famer, but just not in his first couple years of induction eligibility.  They feel that honor is reserved for only the best of the very best.

I don't necessarily agree with that.  I think if you are a Hall of Famer you are a Hall of Famer.  But I understand where people come from when they make that argument.   What I don't get is the criteria.  I hear being a Hall of Famer is about having a great career.  Dominating for an extended period of time.  Playing well in the postseason.  Not being able to write the history of the NFL without devoting a Chapter to their career.

Then you get Bob Hayes.  The bulk of his numbers crammed into a four-year period.  Two catches for 23 yards in the only Super Bowl his team won.  One catch for 41 yards in the Super Bowl his team lost.  Two postseason games out of 12 with over 50 yards receiving from the 1967 playoffs to the 1973 playoffs.  Two touchdowns in that span with one of them coming in a 52-14 win over Cleveland in the 1967 Divisional round.

Tell me why Terrell Davis is a Hall of Famer.  Four 1,000-yard rushing seasons.  Three seasons over 10 rushing touchdowns.  Super Bowl XXXII MVP.  1998 NFL League MVP.  2,000 yards rushing in a season.  21 rushing touchdowns in a season.  Three time Pro Bowler and three time All-Pro.  All 1990's Team Selection.

Yet many tell me that he's not a Hall of Famer, because he didn't do it long enough?   But if he waits for 30 years and can get nominated by the "Veteran's Committee." Are his numbers suddenly going to improve to the point where he is Hall of Fame worthy?  Hayes isn't anymore worthy now than he was ten years ago or twenty years ago.  Does making players wait thirty years to show they were Hall of Fame Worthy, but not Super Hall of Fame worthy really make sense to anybody?  Does it make sense to use one set of criteria for people in their first ten years of eligibility and than switch to an easier standard thereafter?  If it does I would love that to be explained to me; in particular how you can't write the history of the NFL without talking about Bob Hayes, but you can write it without talking about Terrell Davis.  

I'm not trying to start an anti Bob Hayes campaign.  I'm more upset about the people that aren't getting in than the people that are.  Bob Hayes isn't some name that came out of left field that shouldn't have been talked about.  He's the most recent example and I'm using him to illustrate a point and for that reason only.  I am saddened that he isn't here to enjoy the wonderful honor and I am happy for his family that they will get to enjoy this moment.

But my understanding is that there is this scientific process that goes into picking these players, yet there are contradicting standards that seem to be all over the place.  Guys that seem obvious to me like Chris Carter can't get in.  Guys like Bob Hayes have to wait 30 years to get it, but when they are finally selected they don't have numbers or contributions that are any different than guys that I'm told aren't good enough to even be considered.  The only difference is that they played a long time ago and are being nominated by the Veterans Committee.

I respect the job the voters do.  There have been NFL teams since 1921.  There aren't even 300 guys in the Hall.  I'm not about to pretend their job is easy.  I'm not going to pretend that I could pick guys in a manner that every person with a blog couldn't shoot down as being inconsistent.  The alternative is going to a baseball method of picking Hall of Famers where the debate is primarily statistic driven.  We all know that doesn't create any controversy, right?  In a sport like the NFL that isn't going to help anything; in fact it would just make it worse.

Where I believe the NFL Hall of Fame voters are going wrong is that they are so intent on making sure that certain players not get voted in to quickly, because they didn't have a first ballot career that they aren't getting around to getting them in the Hall in later years.  Guys like Art Monk should not have to wait ten years for induction.  A guy like Chris Carter shouldn't have to wait two years.  If they can just do a better job of getting the obvious guys it would give them a lot more credibility when they pick someone that is more questionable like Bob Hayes.  When Chris Carter is left off two years in a row it leaves the whole process open to speculation.     

5) Coaching Update - There have been a couple hires that I never got to address since my last newsletter that I wanted to touch on.  Rex Ryan was a great hire by the New York Jets.  He has a lot of experience as a coordinator.  When Brian Billick was fired after the 2007 season, Coach Harbaugh thought enough of Ryan to keep him on the staff.  He is going to bring a great blitzing scheme to the Jets, a team that is already built for the 3-4 defense.  It's a very solid hire.

A lot was made of Favre's meltdown the last five games, but at the end of the day the Jets scored the ninth most points in the NFL this season.   Their 405 points scored was the third most in franchise history.  Their defense ranked 18th and could not stop the pass, ranking 28th in that category.  This team needs to improve on defense more than it needs to improve on offense.  Ryan should help improve those areas.

I thought it was interesting that Ryan retained offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.  I was curious to see if Ryan was going to hire someone that runs a more traditional West Coast Offense like Brett Favre is used to running.  I think this move indicates that while the Jets may want Brett Favre back, they aren't going to seek his input on the direction of the offense in 2009.  If he's going to comeback to the Jets he is going to have to fit in with what they are doing, not vice versa.  That probably isn't the worst decision, seeing Favre isn't a guarantee to comeback and if he does it will probably be for only one more year.  Furthermore, the Viking rumors are beginning to swirl.  That is a topic for another day.

The other move since I last wrote an article was the Chiefs hiring GM Scott Pioli, who cut ties with Herm Edwards.   This also makes sense to me.  Herm Edwards paid for a lot of the sins that Dick Vermiel made.  Edwards walked into a team that had only one year left in their window.  The offensive line was old and the defense was a disaster.  Almost any coach that went there was headed for a rebuilding effort.  He's not the main reason for the talent deficiencies this team is suffering from in 2009.    

The problem is that he isn't part of the solution either.  There are a lot of experienced coaches on the market, as well as some solid coordinator candidates.  Herm Edwards is not going to lead this team to the Super Bowl.  Edwards is a great motivator, but is a terrible offensive mind.  His best job is as defensive coordinator.  That necessitated the change.

Edwards loves to give his backs the football.  In 2006 Larry Johnson set a NFL record with 416 carries.  Curtis Martin had 371 carries in 2004, which ranks 26th all time.  The problem is that it becomes predictable.  His running backs either break down from all the work or they get stuff by good teams in the playoffs that know what is coming.  His 23-8 loss to the 2006 Indianapolis Colts was one of the worst called playoff games I ever witnessed.

Herm Edwards has never coached a 3,500-yard passer.  The most touchdown passes a quarterback has ever thrown in his offense was 22 by Chad Pennington in 2002.  You can't win in today's NFL with a coach who is so deficient on the offensive side of the ball.   One year is not having personnel.  Eight years is a philosophy issue.

In 2002 the Jets looked like an up in coming power and Edwards looked like the next big Head Coach.  That has never materialized in the six seasons since.

It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs are able to land not only a former division rival, but also a Hall of Fame coach in Mike Shanahan.  That talk has died down in the last week.  Arizona Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley is the hot name of the moment.  The Chiefs need to find a more offensively minded head coach that can utilize Bowe and Gonzalez.  There is talent on this roster, but there is a lot of work to do.

A Look Ahead:  There are obviously no games to look ahead to, but there are a few things I want to run by my readers that making writing this newsletter so much fun.  As bad as my postseason picks went, I picked the Super Bowl right with Pittsburgh winning 27-17.  That's not too bad.  

Thank you for all the comments everyone posted through out the season.  2008 was another great season and your insight really helps make my newsletters the success that they have become.  I can't thank you enough.

As in past years, I will answer comments on this article and then need a break from writing after the season ends.  I'm probably going to take off from writing for about three weeks.  When the free agency signing period starts I'll resume writing by talking about the big winners and losers in the first part of free agency.  

If something big happens in the meantime I'm going to post an article.  The one item I can foresee writing about is a Hall of Fame caliber player retiring, i.e. Favre, Warner, etc.  Even with Favre, I'm skeptical about writing an article, because he could change his mind in two weeks.  I need to see him retired at this point to believe him.

I do want your feedback on my 2009 divisional preview schedule.  I think there have been some successes with those and some failures the last two seasons.  When I first did those to preview the 2007 season we had great momentum.  My AFC West article drew an estimated 150 responses with my comments included.  Momentum died when I left for my summer trip for two weeks and they didn't seem to recover when I got back.  I also think the Michael Vick story played into that too, but that is another story all together.

To prevent that vacation from disrupting the previews, I decided to start those last year at the beginning of May so that I could have everything wrapped up before I went on vacation.  In retrospect, I think that was too early and there wasn't as much interest in discussing the previews as there was when I started them in June the year before.

What I would like your feedback on is when do you think I should start doing those.  They can't start before May otherwise the NFL draft will not have completed.  They need to be wrapped up by the end of August.  

The three options that seem the most viable to me are as follows:

 i) Go with last year's format.  Start them in May so they are concluded before I go on my trip in July,

ii) Start them after I get back from my trip in the middle of July.  That basically would be one division per week through training camp and the preseason games, or

iii) Start the NFC in June and conclude it before I leave.  Then start the AFC after I get back.  That would conclude my previews before the start of the preseason games, which I also think is desirable.  I usually start writing newsletters when the preseason games get under way and that's going to be a lot of writing per week if I'm doing a newsletter and a division preview.  

I'm leaning toward Option iii with my vacation acting as a split for the NFC and the AFC.  Please let me know if you like either of those options or if you have a better idea.  Your comments are what make writing those previews fun and I want to do those in the way that will draw the most discussion and excitement.

That's all for this week.  I look forward to reading your comments this week.  Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Steelers on a wonderful season and a well deserved Super Bowl Trophy.