The NFL released its schedule on Tuesday.  Therefore I decided to push my regular Tuesday article back to Wednesday so we could take a look at the schedule as that is the big news in the NFL this week.  There were some interesting developments that came out of the schedule release.   There are a few teams that came away looking like winners in the schedule and a few teams that look like they are going to have a tough road.

One thing to remember is that strength of schedule isn't always what it is hyped up to be.  Any NFL team can beat any other NFL team any week.  There are no easy games.  The Pittsburgh Steelers had the toughest schedule in 2008 based on the 2007 record.  Many thought it might be one of the toughest in NFL history.  They managed to go 12-4 and win the Super Bowl.  The Indianapolis Colts had the second toughest schedule and they also went 12-4 and were the #5 seed in the playoffs. 

Conversely the New England Patriots had the easiest schedule and many thought they could be primed to go 16-0 again.  They only went 11-5 and missed the playoffs.  The San Diego Chargers had the second easiest schedule and managed only an 8-8 record and had to win their last three games combined with three straight losses by Denver to make the playoffs.  Even though those teams had easy schedules they were hurt by injuries to QB Tom Brady and DE Shawn Merriman. 

Strength of schedule can be overrated, because teams that were bad the year before can suddenly become tough teams and vice versa.  In 2007 the Miami Dolphins improved from 1-15 to 11-5 in 2008.  The Atlanta Falcons also went from 4-12 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008.  Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys went from 13-3 to 9-7 and the Green Bay Packers went from 13-3 to 6-10.   Just because the teams finished a certain way the year before doesn't mean they will again.  We don't know what injuries and setbacks will affect the teams across the NFL. 

However, I have also seen a schedule destroy teams.  The 2006 Ravens went 13-3 and were the #2 seed in the AFC.   In 2007 they got off to a slow start and then had to play at San Diego, New England Patriots, and the Indianapolis Colts.   That took a 4-6 team and buried them at 4-9 and out of the playoff race. 

When I pick the winners and losers I try to do my best to take a cross section of teams from different divisions.  The reason for that is that 12 out of the 16 opponents will be identical for teams in the same division.  The only games that differ are two conference games that are determined by how the teams finished in their division and the two division games the opponents play against one another.  If I went straight down the strength of schedule list most of the teams would be from the same division.

Let's start with my Five Winners:

1) Chicago Bears - The NFC North is really helped by having Detroit in their division.  The Lions are responsible for 32 of the losses in the other NFC North's strength of schedule.  The Bears have the easiest schedule in the NFL at .413.  The Vikings are next at .423.  The Packers are fourth easiest at .431.  Without the Lions the Bears strength of schedule jumps from .413 to .478, which is still pretty easy, but not as easy when you count the Lions in the strength of schedule.   

The Bears still have a lot of nice games on the schedule.  The Packers were only 6-10 in 2008.  They are switching to a 3-4 defense and have only added one free agent this off-season in backup safety Anthony Smith.   Chicago gets that road game out of the way in Week One, when you figure the Packers will still be adjusting to those changes.  The Bears play the NFC West, which means four games against St. Louis (Week 13), Seattle (Week Three), San Francisco (Week 10), and Arizona (Week Nine).  They also draw the AFC North, which means two games against at Cincinnati (Week Seven) and Cleveland (Week Eight).  That could be a 7-1 record against those eight teams if things stay similar to the 2008 season. 

The Bears do have some tough games.  They host defending champion Pittsburgh (Week Two) and NFC representative Arizona in Week Nine.  They host Philadelphia in Week 11.  They also have to travel to Baltimore in Week 15.  That means they play all four representatives from the 2008 conference championship games.  They also draw a trip to Atlanta in Week Six, which is one of the upcoming teams in the NFL.   The good thing for the Bears is that game is coming off a Week Five bye.

The key though is that the Bears draw a lot of winnable games.  They get Minnesota in Chicago on December 28th at 7:20 pm.  That is going to be windy, snowy, and cold.  Minnesota traditionally doesn't play well in those elements.  They close at Detroit, which should be a winnable game.  About the toughest stretch of games they have are from Week Nine to Week 12 when they play Arizona, at San Francisco, Philadelphia, and at Minnesota.  In the whole scheme of things that's not bad for a tough stretch of games.

If the Bears can beat the Minnesota Vikings at Minnesota in Week 12 they figure to be in good position to win a NFC North that is a bit down this year.  The schedule is a huge boost to a team that has expectations that shot through the roof when the acquired Jay Cutler.  I would say the Bears got a big break from the schedule makers in a year that there will be a lot of pressure to win the NFC North.      

2) Pittsburgh Steelers - What a difference a year makes.  Last year the Steelers drew a schedule where their opponents had won almost sixty percent of their games.  This year they draw the fifth easiest schedule in the NFL with a 110-143 record or a percentage of .435. 

The Steelers have their four games against Cleveland in Week Six and Week 14, as well as Cincinnati in Week Three and Week 10.  They also draw a road game against Detroit in Week Five and a home game against Green Bay in Week 15.  The AFC North plays the AFC West this year, which means games at Denver in Week Nine, at Kansas City in Week 11, and Oakland in Week 13.  That also means no games against New England or Indianapolis.  Instead the draw the Dolphins in Miami to close the season and the Tennessee Titans minus Albert Haynesworth at home in the season opener. 

Those are still going to be tough games, but probably not as tough as the Patriots with Tom Brady and the Indianapolis Colts with Peyton Manning.  For the first time in recent memory the Steelers don't draw the Chargers, Colts, and Patriots in the same season.  Of those three opponents they only draw a home game against the Chargers in Week Four.  The Steelers also have to travel to Chicago in Week Two and host the Vikings in Week Seven.  Those will be challenging games.

Considering the schedule they had last year the defending champions look to have a pretty nice road back to the playoffs.  The only tough break they got is they close the season against Baltimore and at Miami.  Given the schedule and the losses of the Ravens in free agency, Pittsburgh still looks like the favorite to win the AFC North.

3) San Francisco 49ers - It's a pretty easy schedule with teams having a 113-142-1 record or .443.   They have some challenges at the beginning of the season.  They travel to NFC Champion Arizona to open the season, play at Minnesota in Week Three, and host the Falcons in Week Five.  They also travel to Indianapolis in Week Eight and Tennessee in Week 9.   Philadelphia could pose some problems in Week 15. 

But the schedule is bearable in the beginning and gets really easy toward the end.  They close the season with a home game against Detroit and a road game against St Louis.  Thy have a nice stretch from Week 11 to Week 13 where they travel to Green Bay, host Jacksonville, and travel to Seattle.   That means that five of their last eight games are very winnable contests. 

San Francisco is a 7-9 team that closed the season with a lot of momentum.  They played harder and smarter for Mike Singeltary.  It's a pretty down division and they really don't have stretches of tough games.  If San Francisco plays up to its potential there should be no long losing streaks.  The key is getting off to a good start.  They don't want to be 2-4 entering their Week Eight slate of games.  Turning around their season at Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Chicago in Weeks Eight through Ten will not be easy.  But if they can get off to a 4-2 start and win one of those three games the end of the season sets up well for them to go on a run.  If the Cardinals aren't much improved from their 9-7 regular season record in 2008 the schedule sets up well for the 49ers capturing the NFC West in 2009. 

4) Indianapolis Colts - The Colts actually have a nice schedule for a change.  Last year they had the second toughest schedule in the NFL.  This year it ranks 13th with a 131-125 record or .512. 

What I like about their schedule is the close.  They have their final five games at home against Tennessee, home against Denver, at Jacksonville, at home against the New York Jets, and at the Buffalo Bills.  Those are five winnable games with the toughest being Tennessee at home. 

They also have a nice two games coming off their Week 6 bye.  They travel to St Louis and host San Francisco. 

There just aren't a lot of consecutive tough games.  They play Miami in Week Two and Arizona in Week Three on the road.  They also host New England in Week 10 and travel to Baltimore in Week 11. 

The NFC West provides three very winnable games.  The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are in a state of transition in the AFC East.  Tennessee took a step back with no Haynesworth.  Jacksonville was just 5-11 last year.   Houston will be an interesting team to watch in the AFC South.

There are a lot of winnable games.  So long as the Colts are 6-5 headed into those last five games they should be able to make a strong push to close the season.  Given their record in past years they should be much better than 6-5 and should be in a good position to take the AFC South back from the Tennessee Titans. 

5) Arizona Cardinals - This is my second team from the NFC West.  The Cardinals have a pretty tough schedule at the beginning of the season.  They host an improving San Francisco to open the season and host Indianapolis in Week Three.  Then things get tough in Week Seven where they play the New York Giants in New York, host the Carolina Panthers, and travel to the Chicago Bears.  It's imperative that they have a 4-1 or 3-2 record entering that stretch of games. 

Similar to San Francisco the schedule really improves down the stretch.  They have two games against the 2-14 Rams in Week 10 and Week 16.  They travel to Detroit in Week 15.  They host the Green Bay Packers in Week 17.   They host Seattle in Week 10.  That's five games against teams that won six games or less in 2008 in their final eight games.  The only two-playoff teams they play the second half of the season are at Tennessee in Week 12 and hosting Minnesota in Week 13. 

Last year I said it was imperative Arizona started fast, because the schedule was tougher in the second half of the season.  This year Arizona needs to survive the first half of the season.  If they enter the final games at 5-3 or better they will be in position to take control of the division with some easy games to close the season.   Both San Fran and Arizona have nice second half schedules.  It is good for Arizona that San Fran doesn't have an easy schedule to start and can build a big lead on them in the division.  Whoever gets off to the better start will have a good chance of taking the division in 2009.

Here are Five Teams that I think have a tougher road. 

1) Miami Dolphins - In 2007 the Dolphins had a pretty easy schedule outside their division.  They drew the AFC West, which was a combined 23-41.  They also drew the NFC West, which was a combined 22-42.  Six of those eight teams are drafting in the top 12.  The Dolphins went 7-1 against those divisions, losing only to the Arizona Cardinals in the second week of the season.  That was a really big reason they were able to go from 1-15 to 11-5 so quickly. 

This year the Dolphins have a much tougher road to go as the AFC East Division Champion.  Their 2009 opponents had a 152-104 record in 2008, which is a winning percentage of .594.  They have six games against teams that made the playoffs last year.  That includes home games against Indianapolis and Pittsburgh with road games against Atlanta, Carolina, San Diego, and Tennessee.  Their easiest games are against teams like Buffalo (2), Houston, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and @ Jacksonville.  The only team with a terrible record in 2008 was Jacksonville at 5-11. 

The schedule has a brutal start.  They start at Atlanta, host Indianapolis, and travel to San Diego.  They also close the season tough.  Week 15 at Tennessee followed by home games against Houston and Pittsburgh.  That doesn't include their tough games at the Patriots in Week Nine or at home against the Patriots in Week 13. 

If the Dolphins are going to repeat as AFC East Division Champions they are not only going to have to face a Buffalo team that acquired TO, a rebuilt Jets team under Rex Ryan, and an always dangerous Patriots team, but a brutal out of conference schedule.  We'll see if the Dolphins are able to experience the same success in 2008 as in 2009 against a very tough schedule.   My guess is that they are probably going to take a step back in 2009.

2) Philadelphia Eagles - The NFC East is a tough place to play every year.  The division consistently has four teams with 8-8 records or better.  That said the division got even tougher this year.  The New York Giants got a lot better on the defensive side of the ball with their off-season signings of Canty, Benard, and Boley.  Those players figure to improve their front seven.  Don't forget Osi Umenyiora is coming back from injury.  The Cowboys added by subtracting.  They rid themselves of players like TO and Pacman Jones.  They also signed LB Brooking and DE Igor Olshansky to improve a defense that led the NFL in sacks.  Finally, even though I thought the Redskins overpaid for Albert Haynesworth, there is no denying the Redskins are going to put more pressure on the QB with his addition. 

The Eagles were 9-5-1 going into the last weekend of the season.  They needed the Bears and Buccaneers to lose and also needed to beat the Cowboys to win just to get into the playoffs.  That can't be forgotten in their journey to the NFC title game.  Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook aren't getting any younger.  Many thought last year might be their last run. 

If they were looking for help from the schedule they didn't get it their either.  It's the ninth toughest schedule in the NFL at 137-118 or .537.  They drew road games against both NFC South playoff teams Carolina in Week 1 and Atlanta in Week 13.   They have to travel to Chicago to face the newly acquired Jay Cutler in Week 11.  They also have home games against Tampa Bay (Week 5), New Orleans (Week 2), and the improving San Francisco 49ers (Week 15).   That doesn't include their six tough NFC East divisional games against the Giants, Cowboys, and Redskins.

If Philly can stay healthy they still have enough to make another playoff run.  The core of their NFC runner up team is returning.  They really need to stay healthy and play well if they are going to want to survive this schedule.  The margin for error is very small.   

3) Atlanta Falcons - In terms of strength of schedule the Falcons rank fourth toughest in the NFL at 150-105-1.  That's a winning percentage of .588. 

That's tough enough.  The problem for the Falcons is they have four games against teams coming off bye weeks.   Chicago has a bye in Week Five before playing the Falcons in Week Six.  Dallas has a bye in Week Six before playing the Falcons in Week Seven.  Washington has a bye in Week Eight before playing the Falcons in Week Nine.  Finally, the New York Giants host the Falcons in Week 11, one week after their Week 10 bye. 

Playing teams coming off bye weeks is tough enough as it is.  The opposing team has an additional week of rest and two weeks to prepare for that game.  Furthermore, all four teams won at least eight games last year.  It isn't like the St Louis Rams or Detroit Lions are facing the Falcons on two weeks rest.

The only break the Falcons got was the end of their season schedule.  They host the Saints in Week 14, travel to the New York Jets in Week 15, host Buffalo in Week 16, and travel to Tampa Bay in Week 17.  That's a pretty winnable slate of games to close the season if they can stay competitive in the first 12 games. 

The trade off is a tough opening to the season.  The Falcons host Miami in Week One, host Carolina in Week Two, and travel to New England in Week Three.  They also travel to Carolina in Week Ten and New York Giants in Week 11, host Tampa Bay in Week 12, before hosting Philadelphia in Week 13. 

Atlanta played in a tough division last year and played in tough places.  They excelled and should be up to the task in 2009.  But they are going to be challenged to play their best football right from the start.  If they don't they could be trying to dig themselves out of a hole the entire season. 

4) Minnesota Vikings - Viking fans are going to be surprised to see their team on this list.   The Vikings have the second easiest schedule with a 107-148-1 record or .420 winning percentage.  After that the NFL stopped doing the Vikings any favors. 

The Vikings have these final six games.  They host the Bears in Week 12, travel to Arizona in Week 13, host the Bengals in Week 14, travel to Carolina in Week 15, travel to Chicago in Week 16 to play a December 28th game at 7:20 at night, and close with a home game against the New York Giants.  Their last six opponents have a 55-40-1 record with 11 losses and one tie belonging to Cincinnati. 

That doesn't even include the Week Six and Week Seven opponents where they host Baltimore and travel to Pittsburgh. 

Yes, they have some easier opponents with the Browns, Lions (2), Packers (2), Seattle, and St Louis.  They better hope they win them all.  If they enter the close of the season with a 5-5 record they may find it difficult to close the season with a big push against that type of schedule.  If the Vikings want to make the playoffs they will probably need to be no worse than 7-3.  They will be doing well if they can go 3-3 to close the season.  

The reason the 49ers and Cardinals both were winners is not only did they have favorable schedules, but the tough games were distributed evenly for both teams.  The Bears and Vikings have similar schedules, but I like how the games are spread out for the Bears much better than I do for the Vikings.  Given the additions of Cutler and Pace, the fact that the Bears and Vikings split their head to head in 2009, and that the Vikings only won the division by a game I think the Bears came out winners with the schedule where as the Vikings have to be a bit disappointed.

5) Kansas City - They are tied for the 17th most difficult schedule, which means they are right in the middle.  The problem is that the schedule is very front-loaded with difficult games.   The easy games are after their Week Eight bye.  They are at Jacksonville (Week Nine), Denver (Week 13 and at Denver Week 17), Buffalo (Week 14), Cleveland (Week 15), and at Cincinnati (Week 16).

When I evaluate a schedule if a team has a front loaded schedule I prefer a veteran team that has played a lot of games together.  Those teams tend to start fast and that way if they get injured they have easier games to close the season.  Kansas City is not a veteran team.  Assembling a new coach, quarterback, and a bunch of different players is tough enough.  Doing it against the best teams in the NFL makes it that much tougher. 

They might close the season well.   The problem is that they may be a one-win team by the time they get to Week Eight.   They open up the season at Baltimore, Oakland, at Philadelphia, New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, at Washington, and San Diego. 

I think with a first year quarterback and head coach the Chiefs would have rather flipped the schedule playing those easier games at the beginning of the season so they could have a respectable record and build chemistry.  I just don't see them getting off to a fast start against the NFC East, Baltimore, San Diego, and Oakland.  The big thing is that they try to get off to a 3-5 or 4-4 start and hope they can gain momentum in the second half of the season.  They might have better luck when they get to those games.  If not it is going to be a long year in Kansas City.

What do you think?  Are you happy with your teams schedule or are you prepared for the worst?  Do you think I identified the right teams or do you think I missed some?  Let me know your thoughts.

As the end of the decade is approaching NFL Hall of Fame Voters are going to have to decide who are the two quarterbacks that should be on the NFL's All-Decade Team. It's probably the easiest choice of any of the positions. Tom Brady and Peyon Manning have clearly been the best quarterbacks in the NFL this decade. While Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, and Kurt Warner have some excellent arguments they don't have the body of work in terms of regular season and postseason success from 2000-2009 that would suggest they should be ahead of Brady and Manning for that honor.

That's the easy part. But if you were going to go back to 2000, which of these quarterbacks would you want to have as the starter? The easy answer is Tom Brady, because he helped lead the Patriots to three Super Bowl titles to Peyton Manning's one. But I have never been someone that likes to simply count the rings and leave it at that. I think winning a Super Bowl is a team accomplishment and that there is more to looking at quarterbacks than just counting Super Bowl rings.

I decided to look at a number of different areas to determine who is the best quarterback for this decade.  While I wouldn't necessarily use this method in comparing quarterbacks of different eras I think this is the best way to look at two quarterbacks of the same era, because they are competing against same teams in the same league with the same rules.  To go this route comparing Bart Starr and Tom Brady or Johnny Unitas and Peyton Manning would be a bit more challenging with different schedules, different rules, and different styles of play for the two players.  

1) Regular Season Wins: Tom Brady has an 87-24 record as a starter since coming over to the Patriots. That is an insane winning percentage of .783. It has resulted in six division titles for the New England Patriots. Peyton Manning has a winning percentage of 101-43 since 2000 or .701. He has won five divisional titles.

It's just too close to call. Brady has a better winning percentage and more division titles. He also has the only 16-0 regular season in NFL history. Peyton Manning has more wins in the decade and became the first quarterback in NFL history to win 12 games or more for six consecutive seasons. Even with Brady's great winning percentage he won only nine games in 2002 and 10 games in 2005. I'd say this statistic is even.

Advantage: Even

2) Regular Season Statistics: If you average out the statistics on a per game basis here is what they look like for each quarterback:

P. Manning - 22.1 completions in 33.7 attempts, 65.6 completion percentage, 262.2 passing yards, 2.0 touchdown passes, 0.9 ints, and a QB rating of 97.8.

T. Brady - 20.7 completions in 32.9 attempts, 62.9 completion percentage, 238.3 passing yards, 1.8 touchdown passes, 0.8 interceptions, and a QB rating of 92.9.

This one is pretty easy. Manning is much higher in completions, completion percentage, passing yards, and touchdown passes on a per game basis. He also has the higher quarterback rating. The only thing Brady does better than Manning is in the interception department. Over the course of a 16 game season Manning averages about 14.4 interceptions to Brady's 12.8. It isn't a significant advantage.

Manning has consistently put up better numbers in the regular season this decade. I would give him the advantage in that area.

Advantage: P. Manning

3) Regular Season Awards: I think this goes to show why putting Manning ahead in Regular Season Statistics is the prudent course of action. Peyton Manning has been selected to the Pro Bowl eight times in the nine seasons played this decade. The only season he did not make it was back in 2001 when Edgerin James was lost for the season in their sixth game of the season. The Colts finished with a 6-10 record.  In addition to that he has been selected to the All-Pro first team four times (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2008). Manning has also won regular season MVP awards in 2003, 2004, and 2008.

Tom Brady on the other hand has only been selected to four Pro Bowls (2001, 2004, 2005, and 2007). He has one NFL MVP award, which he won in 2007. That is also the only season he was named as the All-Pro first team quarterback.

Statistics combined with high win totals are what is going to drive these awards.  They both have the wins, but Manning has the numbers to go along with those.  That's why it is Peyton Manning in the regular season awards department and it isn't even close.

Advantage: P. Manning

4) Postseason Wins: Tom Brady is one of the most consistent quarterbacks in postseason history. His teams qualified for the playoffs in 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007. In those playoffs he has a record of 14-3. He has helped lead his teams to four Super Bowl appearances. They beat the St Louis Rams 20-17 in the 2001 season. He followed that up with a win over Carolina Panthers 32-29 in the 2003 season. His Patriots beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24-21 the following year. Finally, his undefeated Patriots lost to the New York Giants 17-14 in the 2007 season.

Tom Brady has never lost a home playoff game. He is a perfect 8-0 at home. He is 3-1 in the Super Bowl and 4-1 in AFC Conference Championship Games.

Even more impressive is that two of his three losses have been heartbreakers. The Patriots lost a 38-34 heartbreaker in Indianapolis in the 2006 AFC Championship Game. In 2007 the Patriots lost by only three points to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. The only playoff loss the Patriots have had by more than ten points since Brady became the Patriots starting QB is a 27-13 loss at Denver.

Peyton Manning has been very good at guiding his team to the playoffs. The only year they failed to qualify was 2001. Once he has gotten there he has had a less than stellar record in the playoffs. He is just 7-8 in the playoffs for his career. Seeing I am only looking at this decade from the 2000 to 2008 season he has a record of 7-7.  Four of those wins came in the 2006 season when Peyton Manning led the Indianapolis Colts to a Super Bowl title. That leaves just a 3-7 record the other seven seasons he has qualified for the playoffs. Five times the Colts have made the playoffs under Manning and failed to win a single playoff game.

Peyton Manning's teams have gotten roughed up in the playoffs a couple times this decade. The New York Jets in the 2002 Wild Card Round destroyed the Colts 41-0. The Colts were also shutdown by the New England Patriots 24-3 in the 2004 Divisional Round.

Finally, if you want to look at their head to head record Tom Brady has squared off against Peyton Manning three times in the playoffs. He has a 2-1 record against Manning's Colts.

No matter how you look at it Tom Brady has the advantage in postseason success. He has double the playoff wins, two more Super Bowl victories, three more Super Bowl appearances, and a better head to head record. Tom Brady has never been in a postseason where his team has failed to win at least one playoff game. That has happened to Manning five times. It's an overwhelming advantage for Tom Brady.

Advantage: T. Brady

5) Postseason Statistics: This is a little harder to do, because the body of work is so small. Here are the per game averages:

P. Manning - 23.5 completions in 37.2 attempts, 63.1 completion percentage, 284.4 passing yards, 1.6 touchdown passes, 1.2 ints, and a QB rating of 87.5.

T. Brady - 21.9 completions in 35.0 attempts, 62.5 completion percentage, 232.6 passing yards, 1.5 touchdown passes, 0.7 interceptions, and a QB rating of 88.0

Looking at it that way it is pretty equal. However, it is such a small sample of games. Looking closer at the numbers there are a couple of factors that have to be considered:

a) The Weather - Let's face it the Patriots have been pretty good this decade. That means eight home games in January in the Boston cold. He has also started two playoff games in Pittsburgh and one in Denver. That is eleven bad weather games.

Peyton Manning on the other hand plays in a dome in Indianapolis. That has meant six games in the dome. He has also had a game at San Diego, at Kansas City, and at Miami. Those are much better conditions to work with than what Brady has had to play through.  That makes it easier to put up big numbers.  

b) Consistency - Peyton Manning has three of the best playoff games I've ever seen. The Denver 03 Wildcard game, the 03 Kansas City Divisional Game, and the 04 Denver Wildcard game he played as good as any quarterback I have ever seen in the playoffs. In those three games he combined to put up the following numbers:

71 completions in 89 attempts, 79.7 completion percentage, 1,139 passing yards, 12 touchdown passes, 1 interception, and a QB rating of 153.7 QB rating.

I challenge anyone to find three playoff games played at that level. A perfect game is a 158.3.  He was almost as close to perfect as you can get for three playoff games.  That is why it makes it so confusing that his numbers in the other eleven-playoff games he played this decade look like this.

258 completions in 433 attempts, 59.6 completion percentage, 2,842 passing yards, 10 touchdown passes, 17 interceptions, and a QB rating of 70.4 QB rating.

The bottom line is that for the majority of the decade Peyton Manning has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL come playoff time and those numbers are skewed upwards by three games that were off the charts. It raises his playoff QB rating for the decade by over 15.0 points.

If you look at Brady he has been much more consistent. He has six games where he was rated over 100.00. He has only two games where he was rated below a 70.4. He also has 14 consecutive playoff games with a touchdown pass. The only player with more in NFL history is Brett Favre at 18 consecutive games.

Given the weather and the consistency I'm giving Brady a sizeable advantage, even though the cumulative statistics suggest it is pretty close. Consistency has to be valued over three excellent games and 11 below average ones.

Advantage: T. Brady

6) Postseason Awards: About the only award the NFL gives for the postseason is the Super Bowl MVP award. Tom Brady has won that two times in four Super Bowl appearances to Peyton Manning's only MVP win in his only Super Bowl appearance.

I'm not a big fan of Brady's Super Bowl MVP award against the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. He was only 16 for 27 with 145 passing yards, one touchdown, zero picks, and an 86.2 QB rating. That one touchdown pass was the only one he threw all postseason.  It's a good game, but hardly a MVP performance for the ages. Had I been given a vote I probably would have voted for Ty Law who returned a 47-yard interception for a touchdown to give the Patriots a 7-0 lead.

Tom Brady was very deserving of the Super Bowl MVP award he won in the 2003 season with 354 yards passing and three touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers.  It is one of the ten best performances in Super Bowl history by a quarterback.  You could also have argued that Tom Brady was more deserving of the Super Bowl MVP award in 2004 when it was instead given to Deion Branch. In all, I feel like Brady should have two Super Bowl MVP awards in the four games he's played in and that is what he has won.  It just didn't come in the Super Bowls I thought it should.

If Peyton Manning were going to have an advantage over Brady he would need a MVP performance for the ages in his Super Bowl victory. Instead, he was 25 for 38 for 247 yards, one touchdown pass, one pick, and a QB rating of 81.8. I still believe Rex Grossman was the MVP of that game with his two interceptions, costly fumbles, and 68.3 QB rating. The Indy defense capitalized on those mistakes and kept Indy's offense playing with a short field and with a lead.  Had Indy's offense capitalized on those more they won have won by a lot more than the final score of 29-17.

That is another topic. Brady has the edge in Super Bowl MVP awards at Two to One and he has the most impressive Super Bowl MVP performance with his great performance in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

Advantage: T. Brady

7) Supporting Cast: This is a hard one for me. If you look at the supporting cast for the decade on offense Manning had a decisive advantage. WR Marvin Harrison made seven Pro Bowls since 2000 and two All-Pro first teams. WR Reggie Wayne has made three Pro Bowls. RB Edge James made three Pro Bowls. OT Tarik Glenn made three Pro Bowls. C Jeff Saturday made three Pro Bowls and two All Pro first teams. RB Joseph Addai made a Pro Bowl. That list doesn't even include a weapon like TE Dallas Clark, who has yet to make a Pro Bowl do to Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez playing in the same conference.

On offense Brady didn't have that support until Randy Moss and Wes Welker arrived in 2007. All three of his Super Bowl rings were earned prior to that.  Troy Brown made the Pro Bowl in 2001. Corey Dillon made the Pro Bowl in 2004. Matt Light has made two Pro Bowls and one All-Pro first team from his tackle spot. Dan Koppen made the Pro Bowl in 2007 from his center spot. But the Patriots haven't had the offense weapons prior to 2007 that Manning had with the Colts.

That is probably one reason why the Colts have finished in the top five in scoring offense and yardage offense seven times this decade. Compare that to the New England Patriots who have been in the top five only twice under Brady this decade in points scored and in the top five in yardage only once. So I would say that other than 2007 Peyton Manning had the vastly superior supporting cast on offense this decade.

But then when the defensive side of the ball is looked at Tom Brady has a very big edge. The Patriots finished in the top five in scoring defense four times under Brady this decade and in the top ten in yardage four times. Compare that to the Colts who were in the top five in scoring defense only twice and the top ten in yardage defense only twice. The best defensive unit on either team was the linebackers the Patriots had in their 3-4 defense. It is a big reason why they won three Super Bowls in four years.

The Colts have been pretty good at rushing the passer and playing pass defense this decade, but they are so light up front that they have struggled to stop the run most of this decade.  That has caused them problems in the playoffs when the weather gets bad and running the ball becomes an even more important part of the game.  

Probably where the Patriots had the biggest advantage was the kicker. While Peyton Manning had to rely on Mike Vanderjagt for game winning heroics the Patriots relied on Adam Vinatieri. He helped deliver the Snow Game against the Oakland Raiders in 2001. He kicked the game winning kicks in all three Super Bowl wins that broke tie games and prevented them from going to OT.

Mike Vanderjagt on the other hand would make about 85 percent of his regular season field goals only to choke in the playoffs.  The biggest choke was in 2005 when he missed a field goal against the Steelers that would have tied a game the Colts trailed in 21-18 and sent it to OT.  That caused the Colts to sign Vinatieri for the 2006 season.  That was a huge signing come playoff time.  He kicked five field goals for the Indianapolis Colts in 2006 that helped them get past the Baltimore Ravens.  He was also big versus his old team the New England Patriots.  Without him they probably don't make it to Super Bowl XLI.  

Then you also have the coaching staffs. While Tony Dungy is a terrific coach in his own right he is not Bill Belichick. Dungy had a 2-4-playoff record with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and came to the Colts as a coach that couldn't win the big one. Bill Belichick was a fantastic defensive coordinator under Bill Parcells that helped the Giants win Super Bowls in 1986 and 1990. He also was the defensive coordinator on the 1996 Patriots team that lost to the Packers in Super Bowl XXXI. He is the premier coach in the NFL today.  He showed that when he led the Patriots to an 11-5 record without Tom Brady for all but the first game of the season. It has been a great asset to Brady to play under that type of coach.

I'll give New England the advantage. While I think it is clear that Peyton Manning had the better supporting cast at wide receiver and running back, the Patriots had a very comparable offensive line, much better defense, special teams, and coaching staff. Offense can't win games alone and while Manning played on the better offenses Brady played on the better teams. Even though their winning percentages for the decade are pretty close Brady played on the team with the better record four times in seven years and they had identical records in 2006 with Indy having the tiebreaker on head to head victory. That tells me the Patriots consistently had the better team over the decade.

Advantage: P. Manning (played with less overall talent so has the advantage)

8) Intangibles: This is the last factor I decided to look at.  The score is Brady 3 vs. Manning 3 with one tie. So basically the whole thing is going to be decided on something that can't be measured statistically.

That is why this debate is so interesting. It is that close. You can make great arguments for Brady and you can make great arguments for Manning.  Any team would be lucky to have them at quarterback and that is why they are easily the best quarterbacks of this decade.  At the end you are almost looking at a feeling to decide whom you would rather go with.

You aren't really going to solve anything here in terms of mechanics. Manning probably throws a harder ball where as Brady can chuck the ball down field, but it hangs in the air a little longer. That works great with a jump ball receiver like Randy Moss.  They both have a great understanding of the game. They both have very high career regular season ratings. Manning has the second highest rating among quarterbacks with at least 100 starts and Brady is fourth.  

They are also both extremely durable.  Both quarterbacks are one of only five quarterbacks with consecutive game streaks over 100 games.  Brady's ended this year on a freak season ending knee injury.  That could have just as easily happened to Peyton Manning.  It was just a bad break for Brady.

There just isn't a lot of separation there to me. If you were going to create a manual of how to play the position from a fundamental standpoint it would probably be a video of Peyton Manning. However, if he were sick that day and you had to film it with Tom Brady instead there wouldn't be a lot lost.

Here is why I go with Tom Brady in this discussion. Since 2000 the Indianapolis Colts have scored 26.7 points per game in the regular season. It's the best total in the NFL over that time span. Yet when the playoffs come the Indianapolis Colts have averaged just 23.2 points per game. The problem again is those three games against Kansas City and Denver twice where the Colts scored 38, 41, and 49 points. If you take those out they are averaging 18.0 points per game in the playoffs. In their seven playoff losses this decade the Colts are averaging just 13.2 points per game. You aren't going to win with offense like that on a team that is built around a great offense. That is basically half of the production that they have put up in the regular season over that same time span.

Equally troubling is that the defense hasn't been that bad. Over the decade the defense has allowed only 22.1 points per game in the playoffs. Compare that to the 20.7 they are allowing over the regular season since 2000. So basically the same defense is showing up in the postseason as the regular season, but the Colts are losing 50% of their games instead of winning at the 70% clip they are accustomed to in the regular season, because the offense can't play up to their regular season standard.

That doesn't mean Manning is totally responsible for that.  Marvin Harrison has only one 100-yard receiving game his entire playoff career.  The line hasn't always blocked the same way it did in the regular season.  That caused a lot of problems against Pittsburgh in 2005.  But Peyton Manning seems to be a guy that takes a step back once January football is played. In 2000 his team lost 23-17 to the Miami Dolphins. In 2003 they lost 24-14 to the Patriots. In 2004 they lost 24-3 to the Patriots. In 2005 they lost 21-18 to the Steelers. The last two years they have lost to the Chargers by scores of 28-24 and 23-17.  Those are all winnable games where the defense gave up a respectable point total and the offense was nowhere to be found.  Giving up 41 points like they did to the Jets in 2002 was the exception, not the rule.

Furthermore, even the year they broke through and won the Super Bowl Peyton Manning became the only quarterback in NFL history to win a Super Bowl in a postseason where he had more interceptions than touchdowns. About the only dominant football he played that postseason was after his team trailed New England 21-3 in the AFC Championship Game.

Too often his team is underperforming their season average and losing home games they shouldn't. If his team were losing games 42-35 and he was putting up solid totals I would tend to put the blame on the front office for not surrounding him with enough defensive talent. But that isn't what his happening.

Then you look at Tom Brady. His team is averaging 24.7 points per game in postseason games since 2000, compared to 25.8 points per game they averaged in the regular season from 2001 to 2007.  Remember that season average is a little higher than it should be due to the 36.8 points the Patriots averaged in 2007.  With fewer Pro Bowlers on offense and in worse weather conditions he is finding ways to give his team the same performance, if not a better performance in the post season as he did in the regular season.

That doesn't mean he always did it. He failed miserably in 2007 where as the MVP of the NFL his team only put up 14 points in a three-point loss in the Super Bowl, despite averaging 36.8 points per game in the regular season. But a player isn't going to be perfect all the time and Tom Brady has shown that more times than not you can depend on him to be the same player or a better player in the postseason that he can depend on him to be in the regular season. Peyton Manning has shown the opposite.

You here experts talk about a player having "It."  That thing that you can't put into words that doesn't get measured in statistics.  Tom Brady has that in both the regular season and the postseason.  Peyton Manning loses it once the calendar turns from December to January.  When it comes to the intangibles of playing well in big games, playing well under pressure, and playing well against the best competition in the NFL Tom Brady has shown this decade that he is the best player in the NFL up to that task. Peyton Manning has shown that he does not possess those qualities. At the age of 33 and with 11 years of NFL experience one has to wonder if he will ever possess those qualities. I give the intangibles advantage to Brady.

Advantage: Brady

Therefore by the slimmest of margins I believe that Tom Brady is the best quarterback of this decade. That said there is one more season in the decade.  Can Peyton Manning catch Tom Brady this season to win that honor?

I believe he can.  Peyton Manning doesn't need to do anything more in the regular season.  He has the advantage in regular season statistics and awards.  Even if Brady came back from the knee surgery and threw 60 touchdown passes and 5,500 yards the advantage would probably still be with Manning in those departments.  

What Manning needs to do is lead his team to the playoffs.  He then needs to not only guide his team to the Super Bowl, but also play well in doing it.  He needs to have more touchdowns than interceptions in the postseason.  He needs to raise his level of play.  If he were able to lead his team to the Super Bowl and put on a top ten all-time level performance on the biggest stage it would even their Super Bowl MVP count at two for the decade.  It would also give him a historic performance in that game. He would also only trail Brady by one ring.  

Given Manning's big advantage in regular season statistics and awards and a narrowed gap in postseason success it would be pretty hard at that point not to give the honor of the decade's best quarterback to Peyton Manning.

However, if Manning has his typical 4,000 yard passing season with 25 to 30 touchdowns, but lays another egg in the Colt's first playoff game it seems hard to believe that he could be considered the best quarterback of the decade, especially if Tom Brady goes on another postseason run coming off serious knee surgery.  

The stakes are high this year.  While every quarterback plays to win games it is always nice to be considered the best quarterback of your era.  Who wins this honor is going to go a long ways in determining which one is more deserving of being in the conversation for the best quarterback of all-time.  

It is possible for two quarterbacks from the same era to be thrown into that discussion.  Unitas and Starr are both talked about and both played in the late 1950s to early 1970s.  Montana and Marino are both in the debate.  They played their best ball in the 1980s.  Favre and Elway were the quarterbacks on the All-Decade team of the 1990s.  All of those quarterbacks end up in the discussion.   

Winning this honor isn't going to end the debate.  When Brady and Manning hang up their cleats both names will be in the discussion.  But is going to give one of the quarterbacks an edge. 

Who do you think is the best quarterback of the decade?  Would you go with Tom Brady or do you side with Peyton Manning?  Do you think there is anything I overlooked or failed to consider?  As always I look forward to your comments.

The trade that has been the talk of the NFL off-season finally went down. The Denver Broncos agreed to trade Cutler and their fifth round pick in the 2009 NFL draft to the Chicago Bears for their first and third round pick in the 2009 NFL draft and for the Chicago Bears 2010 first round pick.

Let's take a look at how this affects both teams, starting with the Chicago Bears:

Chicago Impact - It's a very high price to pay to get a franchise quarterback, but at the end of the day I think it was a move the Chicago Bears had to make. The problem for the Bears was two fold.

First, the Bear's all-time leading passer is Sid Luckman with 14,686 passing yards. The last NFL season he played in the NFL was 1950. The only franchise that has a quarterback that played that long ago as their all-time leading passer is the Detroit Lions. Bobby Layne is their all-time leading passer with just 15,710 yards.

To put that in perspective Jay Cutler already has 9,024 yards passing in his three year NFL career.  This is a big deal. For the first time in recent memory the Bears have a quarterback that can make any throw. Teams are no longer going to be able to put eight or nine people in the box and just focus on stopping the running game.

Matt Forte's value has to be as high as ever right now. Imagine what he is going to be able to do without all those bodies stacked at the line of scrimmage. If Devon Hester was ever going to be a viable NFL deep threat we will find out this year. Greg Olson and Desmond Clark.should see more balls coming their way at their tight end positions.

The Chicago Bears potentially have what the Green Bay Packers had for 16 years.  A quarterback that can make any throw on the field regardless of the field conditions.  I'm not comparing Jay Cutler to the legendary Brett Favre.  He hasn't proven that yet.  But in Chicago where it is often cold and windy it is nice to have a quarterback with a rocket arm that can produce passing numbers in bad weather conditions.  The Bears will enjoy having this newfound advantage.

This doesn't mean the Bears should be purchasing their Super Bowl tickets yet. They still need to get some receivers for Cutler to throw to. Hester was their leading receiver last year with just 51 catches and 665 yards. Marty Booker has been released. Brandon Lloyd and Rasheed Davis? It's not a very stellar group. They could really use some more talent in the draft.  Maybe Torry Holt or Marvin Harrison make sense for the Bears now that they have a new quarterback.

They also have lost OT John St. Clair and OG Terrence Metcalf. They have to hope Chris Williams can live up to his first round billing and they could use some more line help. Cutler was only sacked 11 times last year. The Bears have to make sure he has time to throw the ball. With no first round pick in this years draft or the 2010 draft it is going to be hard to upgrade all those positions in the draft. 

That is one reason why they also signed Orlando Paceto a three year deal today, a story that has gotten lost in the Cutler development.  If he can stay healthy for the Bears that will really help Cutler have time to throw the ball and will help Forte in the running game.

Also, keep in mind that the defense is not the same unit as 2005 or 2006. The defense was 16th in points allowed and 21st in yards allowed. They stopped the run very well, but were 30th in passing yards allowed. They only recorded 27 sacks last year. Making improvements to the secondary and the pass rush are a necessity too.

Remember when I said the problem was two fold. The other side of the equation is that the Vikings and the Lions were in the market for Cutler too. The Bears only finished one game behind the Vikings. If the Vikings had gotten Cutler to team with Adrian Peterson the Vikings might be a division champion for the next five years. If the Lions had gotten Cutler he would have teamed with Calvin Johnson to form one of the best duos in the NFL. Acquiring Cutler not only makes sure he is making plays for the Chicago Bears, but it also makes sure he isn't making plays for a division rival.

All in all I like the trade. The Chicago Bears are a better football team than they were yesterday. They have solved what has been a major weakness now that they have a franchise quarterback. That is the most difficult piece of the puzzle to find. While the Bears still have some other improvements to make if they want to be playing January football they just took a big step to becoming a Super Bowl contender again.

Denver Impact - I think the deal makes a lot of sense for them too. The Denver Broncos were pretty much backed into a corner once their deal fell through and they did not repair the rift with their starting quarterback. With the direction the story had taken it was going to be a distraction. Unloading Cutler was imperative, provided they could find someone to give them good value.   They couldn't afford to just give away such a valuable commodity.

The Broncos already had a good off-season. They added a lot of running back talent. J.J. Arrington comes over from Arizona and gives them help as a receiving back and a return specialist. Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan will compete for the starting running back job. Chris Simms gives them a solid back up in case Orton goes down with and injury. Chris Simms may even be able to take the job from him in camp. WR Jabar Gaffney gives them another weapon in the passing game.   There were some good things going on for the Broncos on the offensive side of the ball. 

On defense the big addition was safety Brian Dawkins. He brings a veteran presence to the secondary. They also added DT Ronald Fields, DT Darrell Reid, LB Andra Davis, CB Andre Goodman, and FS Renaldo Hill. That should help improve a defense that was performed terribly in 2008.

The Broncos now have the 12th, 18th, 48th, 79th, and 84th picks in the NFL draft in addition to their late round selections. Those five picks could potentially become starting players in 2009 to upgrade their defensive line and linebacker core. They could package some picks to trade up and grab Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez. They have a lot of options on the table. If they don't draft a quarterback they can win with Kyle Orton, provided they improve their defense and their running game.   The Broncos will not finish second in the NFL in passing yards in 2009 with Kyle Orton.

Obviously the best scenario would have been to keep Jay Cutler. He has a rocket arm and threw for over 4,500 yards last year. Players like Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal won't be as dangerous this year, because Orton and Simms do not have the ability to deliver the ball deep the same way Cutler did. But to get two first round picks, a third round pick, and a quarterback that threw for 2,972 yards and 18 touchdowns with a 79.6 QB rating is not all bad. The one thing Orton will have to do is improve on his 59.5 completion percentage if he wants to excel in Josh McDaniel's precision offense.

This is a cliche, but I think this trade has the potential to help both teams. The Bears now have their quarterback of the future. The Broncos had a franchise quarterback with Cutler, but only finished 8-8 in the worst division in football. These new picks may give them the tools to rebuild a terrible defense. If both teams take advantage of the opportunity put in front of them they could both make out very nicely. That's the definition of a trade that is good for both teams.  Both teams had to give up something to get something.  Denver does not have to hang their head at the compensation they received for Cutler. 

What are your thoughts? Do you think think the Bears were the big winner here or do you think the Broncos got the better end of the deal. How do you think Cutler does in Chicago? How do you think the Denver offense does with Orton or Simms instead of Cutler? Let me know your thoughts.

If you want to check out more great articles about the NFL check out the website I write for at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. 

 

On March 03, 2009 I wrote an article recapping the big winners and losers of free agency for the opening weekend.  Now that a month has passed since free agency opened and most of the desirable players are signed I'm ready to hand down my final verdict.  No grades this is a pass / fail class.  Some of the teams are going to be the same and some are going to be different.   Let's start with my five Winners.

Winners

1) New York Giants - I love what the New York Giants have done this off-season.  Their number one priority had to be keeping Brandon Jacobs.  He is the heart and soul of their dominant run offense.  They were able to lock him up a four year $25.00 million dollar contract, which was huge.  That allowed them to part ways with Derrick Ward, who played big for them the last two years, but is replaceable.   Having Ahmad Bradshaw gives them good running back depth.  

Then they went out and dramatically improved a defense that was already one of the best in the NFL.  They signed DT Rocky Bernard, DE Chris Canty, and LB Michael Boley to contracts.  They also have Osi Umenyiora coming back from knee injuries.  These additions are going to help DE Justin Tuck stay fresh all season.  These moves are going to make one of the premier defenses in the NFL that much better.   

The only concern on defense is that Steve Spagnuolo is now with the Rams as their head coach.  New defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan has been with the team as a linebacker coach since 2005 and has a lot of experience with the system.  He should be a good fit for the Giants and with the talent he has to work with should be able to keep the good times rolling.  

Jerry Reese and Tom Coughlin have done an excellent job of drafting in recent years.   The New York Giants have the 29th, 45th, 60th, 91st, and 100th, picks in the NFL draft.   They could use some more secondary depth on defense.  They also have to address the wide receiver position with Plaxico Burress's future in doubt.  His court hearing has now been pushed back to the middle of June.  Burress playing football in 2009 looks like less of a reality by the day.  No one really stepped up in his absence last year.  They need more talent there.  

They might be able to work out an Anquan Boldin trade with those picks or use them to find some solid young players in the draft.  With those picks they are in great position to improve on a team that was 12-4 in 2008 and dominated the NFC until the last month of the season.  The Giants look to be one of the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, thanks to a free agency period that saw them really upgrade the defensive side of the ball.

2) Kansas City Chiefs - Last off-season did not have a good feel for Kansas City Chiefs fans.  While they arguably had the best draft in the NFL it came at the expense of trading Jared Allen to the Minnesota Vikings.  The result was a team that got younger, but not better.  The Chiefs got worse in 2008, going from 4-12 in 2007 to 2-14 in 2008.  As a result Scott Pioli replaced Carl Peterson and Pioli replaced head coach Herman Edwards with Arizona offensive coordinator Todd Haley.  It is a new era in Kansas City.  

The Chiefs have been busy ever since.  They acquired QB Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel for a second round pick from the New England Patriots.  Cassel gives them a quarterback that they can build around and Vrabel gives them veteran leadership on a young defense.  

Some teams would have stopped there.  But the Chiefs have made some under the radar moves.  They signed G Mike Goff away from the Chargers to improve an offensive line that is among the worst in the NFL since Willie Roaf and Will Shields retired.  It makes them better and hurts division rival San Diego.  They signed Bobby Engram and Terrance Cooper to improve a wide receiver core that with the exception of Dwayne Bowe was absolutely abysmal in 2008.  

The Chiefs still have some issues to resolve.  Tony Gonzalez is not happy and is still requesting a trade.  Larry Johnson is still with the team, but many are speculating he won't be back.  Keeping Gonzalez has to be a priority.  Without him Bowe is their only really dangerous target and would really hurt Cassel's ability to move the ball through the air.  

The Chiefs have a good draft situation.  They have the third, 67th, and 102nd pick in the draft.  They have resolved their QB situation.  They can either trade down from the third pick and acquire additional picks or they can draft a stud at the top of the draft and maybe find another starter or two with those lower picks.  Few teams can find a player like Matt Cassel in free agency and keep their first round pick.  The Chiefs look to be in excellent shape to improve their team in 2009 and possibly compete in an AFC West that was pretty mediocre last year with San Diego winning the division at 8-8.  

3) New York Jets - I think they did a great job in free agency.   They started by hiring a star defensive coordinator in Rex Ryan.  Then they added a number of quality players to a defense that was in need of an overhaul. DE Marques Douglas, DT Howard Green, ILB Bart Scott, LB Larry Izzo, FS Jim Leonhard, CB Lito Sheppard, CB Donald Strickland were all acquired during the 2009 off-season.  Helping matters Douglas, Scott, and Leonhard all played for Ryan when he was the defensive coordinator in Baltimore.  That gives him a number of players that are familiar with his system that should help the returning players for the Jets pick up on Ryan's new system.  

The Jets were a mixed bag on defense last year.  They had the seventh ranked rush defense and ranked sixth in rushing touchdowns allowed and seventh in rushing yards per attempt allowed.  They were a respectable 18th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed.  Not great, but it gives Ryan something to work with.   They also recorded 40 sacks.  

The problem was that they couldn't stop the pass.  They were 29th in yards allowed and 23rd in touchdown passes allowed.  Quarterbacks averaged an 86.2 QB rating against them, which is too high.  Scott and Shepherd figure to step in and be immediate starters.  The other players may compete for starting jobs, but if nothing else will add critical depth.  The Jets have a much-improved defense going into the 2009 season.  They have the talent in place to be a top ten defense.

The problem going forward for the Jets is on offense.  Brett Favre is no longer the quarterback.  That leaves Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff to fight it out for the number one job.  Ratliff has yet to throw a NFL regular season pass.  Clemens has a career rating of 59.3 with five career touchdowns and 11 picks.  It's as weak of a quarterback situation as any team in the NFL.   

The Jets also lost several offensive weapons.  WR Laveranues Coles was released and has since signed with the Cincinnati Bengals.  TE Chris Baker was cut and signed by the New England Patriots.  TE Bubba Franks has not yet been resigned.  That leaves Jericho Cotchery as the number one receiver, Chansi Stuckey as the number two receiver, and Dustin Keller as the tight end.  That is probably one of the weaker starting units at wide receiver in the NFL.  

Those offensive losses offset some of the gains they had on defense. That is going to put a lot of pressure on 31-year old Thomas Jones to repeat his 290 carries for 1,312 yard and 13 rushing touchdowns.  Jones isn't happy about his contract and his protesting by skipping voluntary workouts.  While his numbers increased due to the additions on the offensive line in 2008 it also improved because defenses were worried about Brett Favre in the passing game.  If they do not add anyone else teams should be able to put eight in the box to stop Jones.  

The Jets aren't going to be the favorites to win the AFC East.  However, they really didn't have a lot of avenues to improve the offense in free agency, so they did the best that they could and really improved their defense.  With the 17th, 52nd, and 76th picks in the draft they figure to be able to address the quarterback and receiver positions.  The only promising QB on the market was Cassel, and the Patriots were not going to trade him to the Jets.  If the Jets get those draft picks right they might be able to contend for a wild card spot in 2009.  Jet's fans should be happy about that considering how their season ended last year.

4) Dallas Cowboys - I think the Cowboys are finally starting to get some things when it comes to building a team.  Instead of trying to sign the big free agents at top dollar they are making the smaller moves that help win championships.  They signed DE Igor Olshansky, who has experience in the 3-4 with Wade Phillips when he was in San Diego.  They signed LB Keith Brooking away from the Falcons.  He is a five time Pro Bowler that is getting up there in age. He will turn 34 in October, but he still had 102 tackles for the Falcons in 2008.   Then they traded for veteran QB Jon Kitna, which is huge if Tony Romo gets hurt.  They can't afford to have Brad Johnson backing up Romo again.  That was a disaster that really hurt them for three weeks in 2008.  

The next thing they did is start subtracting negative personalities from the locker room.  Adam "PacMan" Jones was the first to go.  He was released on February 9th.  TO was the next to go.  The Cowboys cut him on March 4th.  Finally they axed SS Roy Williams.  Williams is a five time Pro Bowler, but had become a liability in pass coverage in recent years and was injured much of last season.  He has been unhappy for sometime and granting his release request was probably in the best interest of the club.

It did hurt that they not only lost DE Chris Canty, but also that they lost him to division rival New York.  It hurt that they traded their first round pick in 2008 for WR Roy Williams.  That leaves them without a first round pick in 2009.  

That said the Cowboys had two first round picks in 2008 that produced promising young players RB Felix Jones and CB Mike Jenkins.    They still have the 51st, 69th, and 101st picks in the draft.  Dallas is relatively young at a lot of positions and really didn't need to obtain a lot of talent in the draft to be competitive in 2009.  Its main goal in 2009 was improving the locker room and signing some solid character veteran guys.  They get an A plus for that.  The team still has a lot of talent on the roster and should be able to compete with the New York Giants for a division title.  Hopefully for the Cowboys they did some addition by subtraction this year.

5) Denver Broncos - Anyone that has been reading my blog knows that I have been pretty critical of the Denver Broncos for the way they have handled the Jay Cutler situation.  While I believe that Cutler deserves some blame for what has transpired in Denver I think that rookie GM Brian Xanders and rookie head coach Josh McDaniels have done an awful job in the way they handled this since the botched trade.  It makes me wonder if getting rid of Mike Shanahan was really that good of an idea.  Had they handled this correctly I probably would have the Denver Broncos towards the top of my list.  Regardless of what you think about Shanahan no longer being there or the Cutler mess there is no denying that the Broncos have added a lot of talented players in the off-season.  

The Broncos have added a lot of running back talent.  J.J. Arrington comes over from Arizona and gives them help as a receiving back and a return specialist.  Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan will compete for the starting running back job.  Chris Simms gives them a solid back up in case Cutler goes down with and injury or is traded.  WR Jabar Gaffney gives them another weapon in the passing game.  

On defense the big addition was safety Brian Dawkins.  He brings a veteran presence to the secondary.  They also added DT Ronald Fields, DT Darrell Reid, LB Andra Davis, CB Andre Goodman, and FS Renaldo Hill.    That should help improve a defense that was performed terribly in 2008.  

They still have some holes to fill.  They  cut CB Dre Bly and DE John Engelberger, and DT Dewayne Robertson.  Those were necessary moves, but they still have to find replacements.  They also have some high draft picks.  They have the 12th, 48th, and 79th picks in the draft.  They have to concentrate on adding some size on their defensive line.  They also need some help at the linebacker spot.  But so far in free agency they have added a lot of quality players to both sides of the ball.   It should make them a better team in 2009, provided Cutler stays with the club.

If they can resolve their squabble with Jay Cutler or work out a trade that gets them Brady Quinn and another high draft choice they may be in position to compete in the AFC West in 2009.   You can't lose in the hype of the Jay Cutler controversy the fact that they added a lot of good veteran players that will help the team improve in 2009.     

Now here are my Five Losers of the NFL Free Agency Period.  That doesn't mean they have to pack in their 2009 season.  It means they have to hope they have good depth in place and that they have a lot of work to do in the April NFL draft.

Losers

1) Baltimore Ravens - This is a team that has been really depleted by free agency defections and salary cap related releases.  The off-season started with them losing defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to the New York Jets.  He signed Ravens Linebacker's Coach Mike Pettine to be his defensive coordinator.  

Then the Ravens players started defecting.  ILB Bart Scott signed with the New York Jets.  FS Jim Leonhard and DE Marques Douglas joined him.  Then CB Corey Ivy signed with the Cleveland Browns.  They cut CB Samari Rolle and Chris McAllister to save cap space.  Finally, K Mark Stover who has been the only kicker in franchise history is not going to be with the team as they have decided to go in a different direction.  

Some of these moves were not that surprising.  The Ravens knew they had to invest a lot of money in Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs.  They also made some good moves by signing Matt Birk at center, L.J. Smith at tight end, Domonique and Foxworth at CB.  They have added some talent this off-season.  

The idea is that a defense with S Ed Reed, MLB Ray Lewis, DE / OLB Terrell Suggs, and DT Haloti Ngata is still going to be a pretty good unit.  McAllister and Rolle missed a lot of time with injuries last season.  Ivy only started one game.  The defense was fine without them for stretches last year and has players that can step in.  

The problem is that even if getting rid of every player was the right move their solid depth now becomes starters and the margin for error becomes less.  Injuries that were survivable in 2008 might not be this year, because that depth is not as solid as it was last year.  Yes, the only players they lost that started more than ten games were Scott and Leonhard, so they have the potential to retool the depth in the draft.  On the other hand to lose five players from the secondary makes you wonder if they are going to lead the league in turnovers forced in 2009 no matter what they do in the draft.  

The Ravens are still developing quarterback Joe Flacco.  They are pretty strong on the offensive line and at running back, but need to find more explosive receivers and probably another tight end to compliment a declining Todd Heap. L. J. Smith was signed by the Ravens, but he has been very injury prone the last two years.  I'm not very high on that signing as it appears to be another tight end in decline.  Instead of using their 26th, 57th, and 88th picks on offensive players to get them over the hump they are probably going to have to use some of those picks to retool the players they lost in free agency and on players they had to release.  

I'm not saying the defense is crashing out of the top ten.  Ozzie Newsome has shown that he is more than capable of replacing players that leave.  What I am saying is that this team was one game away from representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.  To expect them to take the jump to AFC Super Bowl representative with all the coaches and players they lost doesn't seem realistic either.  They don't have much time left with Ray Lewis as the leader of this defense.  They have no margin for error in the draft if they want to get back to where they were in 2008.  

2) Tennessee Titans - The Titans have had some successes in free agency.  They were able to resign Kerry Collins at quarterback and added WR Nate Washington from the Steelers.  He should help their thin wide receiver core.  They were also able to hang onto FS Vincent Fuller and P Craig Hentrich.  
But the elephant in the room is where do the Titans go without the services of Albert Haynesworth, who left for Washington and their $100.00 million dollar contract?  The Titans arguably lost the best defensive tackle in all of football.

The Titans were the best regular season team in the NFL last year.  They started the season 10-0 and finished with a league best 13-3 record.  They did that behind a defense that ranked second in the NFL in scoring defense.   

They got there for two reasons.  One was a very strong secondary that featured Pro Bowlers CB Cortland Finnegan and SS Chris Hope.  FS Michael Griffin had seven picks.  Nick Harper was also very solid.  The other reason they were there was a defense that was anchored by DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch.  

The Titans still have talent on the defensive line.  In addition to Vanden Bosch Jerome Kearse is still there.  Keith Bullock is a solid contributor from his linebacker spot.  Tony Brown is a very solid DT.  They aren't going to fall apart on defense because one player left, even a player with the talent of Albert Haynesworth.  But those guys won't have Haynesworth taking double teams in 2009, so their job is going to be much tougher.  

The problem is that they lost in their first playoff game.  They still need to get over that hump, having lost their first playoff game in both 2007 and 2008.  Pittsburgh, New England, Indianapolis, and San Diego all figure to be contenders again in 2009.  The Miami Dolphins are getting better.  The New York Jets have been busy in free agency.  The Ravens will still be a threat.  Even the bottom of the division is improving.  The Houston Texans seem to be getting better every year.  

In a year where they needed to get better to compete in 2009 they got worse.  Even if they slip from second to points allowed to tenth in points allowed the difference between those two rankings last year was 5.6 points per game.  For an offense that only scored 23.4 points per game that is a big deal.  They are going to need everyone to step up on this team and improve.  They also need to hit a homerun in the draft if they want to contend in the AFC in 2009 without Haynesworth.   A lot of things are going to have to go right for them to repeat as division champions in 2009.

3) Washington Redskins - There are two reasons I have the Redskins here.  Number one they have done nothing to improve an offense that was among the least explosive in the NFL.   Their only signing was spending over $100.00 million dollars to bring in Albert Haynesworth.  Then they overpaid for DeAngelo Hall and resigned him at six years for $54.00 million.  

There other problem is that the Giants and Cowboys are both winners in my book, which means that two divisional rivals have gotten better in free agency and will probably continue to improve in the draft.  

The Washington Redskins were 28th in points scored in 2008.  They were also 23rd in passing yards, 26th in passing touchdowns, 25th in passing yards per attempt, and 22nd in rushing touchdowns.  Had it not been for Clinton Portis rushing for close to 1,000 yards in the first eight games they probably would have been the worst offense in the NFL.  They averaged 12.5 points per game in the final eight games of the season.  The Bengals finished the season scoring 12.8 points per game, which was 32nd in the NFL.  

Without Portis this team doesn't start 6-2.  This team has so many questions on offense.  Is Jason Campbell their quarterback of the future?  Can they win with Santana Moss as their number one receiver?  Will second year players Devin Thomas, Fred Davis, and Malcolm Kelly turn into viable NFL targets?  Is their offensive line still good enough?  Chris Samuels was hurt to end the season, Pete Kendall is 35 years old and a free agent, and Randy Thomas and Jon Jansen are both 32 years old.  

The only certainty they have on offense is that Clinton Portis is a stud running back.  The problem is that he turns 28 years old on September 1st and has 2,052 carries for his NFL career.  Shaun Alexander is done as a NFL running back due to no mileage left on his tires.  He has 2,187 career carries or 135 more than Portis does.  

Clinton Portis probably has one more good year left in him.  He has 325 and 342 carries the last two years.  You just can't keep using a guy that much and not expect him to break down at his age.  If he breaks down this team may not be able to score more than a touchdown a game.  It probably would have made more sense to sign four or five mid tier offensive players with a hard push towards T.J. Houshmandzadeh rather than going after Haynesworth.  While he definitely improves their defensive line and should increase their sack totals and interception totals in 2009, it won't do much good if the offense doesn't do better than 12.5 points per game.  

4) Green Bay Packers - The division is there for the taking.   The Detroit Lions finished 0-16 last year.  The Bears were 9-7, but they are still trying to find a quarterback to compete with Kyle Orton for the starting job and other than Matt Forte and Greg Olson have very few weapons on offense.  They seem to be going downhill since their 2006 Super Bowl season.  The Vikings tried to upgrade their quarterback position by trading for Sage Rosenfels.  While they have a great front seven on defense, a fantastic offensive line, and Adrian Peterson they are hardly the most formidable foe in the NFL with one of the weakest passing offenses in the NFL.  

The Packers have an emerging star in Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.  It's by far the best QB situation in the division.  The negative is that they were 6-10 with two of those wins against 0-16 Detroit.  But the good news is that they were competitive in most of their losses.  They aren't two or three years away from competing.  A good off-season should get them right back into NFC North contention.

There is a good offensive foundation here that could be molded into division champions.  In addition to Rodgers, Greg Jennings looks to be a stud at wide receiver.  Ryan Grant, Donald Lee, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, Brandon Jackson among others give Rodgers some good weapons to work with.  
This team needs to improve their offensive line with Mark Tauscher coming off injury and probably not going to be back with the team.  They also need to retool a defense that was ravaged by injuries and inconsistent play.  The secondary is getting old with Woodson and Harris both in their 30s.  

The good news is that the Packers have lots of cap room.  According to the Green Bay Press Gazette the Packers had roughly $36.00 million dollars in cap room heading into the March free agency period.

So whom did the Packers sign?  S Anthony Smith.  The same Anthony Smith that was put in his place by Tom Brady back in 2007 for being an idiot and running his mouth about stopping the Patriots offense and Randy Moss.  The also retained restricted free agents CB Jarrett Bush, DE Jason Hunter, and DE Mike Montgomery.  

I respect Ted Thompson for the value he puts on the NFL draft.  The good teams are committed to hitting home runs in the draft, not overpaying for every free agent out there.  That said the two biggest moves the Packers have made in the last 20 years are trading a first round pick for Brett Favre and signing Reggie White in free agency.  It is doubtful that the Packers make those moves with Ted at the helm.  The cost of adding those players would have been too great for him.

This is the third straight year the Packers have been substantially under the cap and the youngest team in the NFL.  Furthermore, they fired everyone not named Winston Moss on their defensive staff and brought in Dom Capers with the expectation of switching to a 3-4 defense.  Yet as of today they have the same players on their roster that ran the 4-3 last year.   They have not signed anyone that has front seven experience in a 3-4.  It appears the Packers are going to depend solely on the draft to make this transition.

It's a very disappointing turn of developments for Packer fans.  You would think a GM with just one winning season in four entering his fifth year would be a little more aggressive and have more of a win now approach.  It's good that Ted isn't bankrupting the franchise by overpaying for talent in a last ditch effort to save his job.  But it sure would be nice if he would sign somebody so that the Packers would be in better position to compete in a very winnable NFC North.    

5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - This is a team that has gone through some major changes since a 0-4 collapse took them from 9-3 to outside of the NFC playoffs.  First, they fired Jon Gruden and hired 32-year old Raheem Morris, a coach who has one year of coordinator experience at Kansas State.  Then they started going on a major youth movement with their players.  

Then they started getting younger.  Jeff Garcia, Warrick Dunn, Ike Hilliard, and Joey Galloway were released in an attempt to get younger on offense.  That makes Luke McCown has been in the league since 2004, but has only nine career touchdowns and ten career picks.  

They actually did a good job of keeping the offensive competitive.  Derrick Ward was signed to help the running game.  Kellen Winslow was traded for in an attempt to get stronger at tight end, but they had to give up a second round pick.  They also resigned Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton.  

Where the changes really happened was on the defensive side of the ball.  DT Jovan Hayne, DE Kevin Carter, OLB Derrick Brooks, OLB Patrick Chukwurah, OLB Cato June, and CB Phillip Buchanon.  The only players they replaced those guys with were Angelo Crowell from Buffalo and Niko Koutoutvides from Denver.  

Some of these players had to be let go, especially on offense.  The offense averaged only 22.6 points per game, which ranked 19th in the NFL.  Jeff Garcia is 39 years old and they can't get to a Super Bowl with him.  Warrick Dunn is going to be 34 years old.  Signing Derrick Ward makes sense in that regard.  Joey Galloway missed a lot of games and had only 13 catches on the season.  I like those moves.  

What I don't like is that the defense was 10th in points allowed and ninth in yards allowed.  They had one of the best pass defenses in the NFL and were a little light against the run.   Derrick Brooks made the Pro Bowl, but that was probably more of a reputation selection.  Regardless, he is the leader of that defense.  Cato June is still 29 years old and can help the team win.  I think they started releasing guys for the sake of getting younger without regard for what it did for their defense in 2009.  

It seems hard to believe that with all those veteran guys gone that they can just plug in some draft picks and have the same top ten production.  While players like DE DE Gaines Adams and LB Barrett Rudd are still young Ronde Barber is the leader of their secondary at 34 years old.  I expect this defense to drop to the middle of the pack in the NFL.

It looks more like a rebuilding effort than a retooling.  When you have a 9-7 team that crashed at the end of the season it is bad enough.  In a division where the Panthers were 12-4, the Falcons were 11-5, and the Saints were 8-8 it's even worse.  They have a big question mark at quarterback, they still need receiver help, and they have a lot to replace on defense.   That's too many questions in that division.

That's also a lot of upgrades with limited draft picks.  Tampa has the 19th, 81st, and 120th picks.   The second round pick now belongs to Cleveland thanks to the Winslow trade.  They are probably looking at getting one, maybe two starters in the draft.  We'll see if that is going to be enough to compete in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL.

That's my take on the NFL free agency period.  There are still some free agents left that may excite some teams.  Most of them are veteran guys that have lost a step that will need to take pay cuts to continue their NFL employment.  Here are my Top Ten remaining free agents on the market:

Top Ten Free Agents Left 

01) Derrick Brooks - He's an 11-time Pro Bowler that is a future first ballot Hall of Famer.  He turns 36 years old this year, but he would be an excellent addition to the Colts or Bears, two teams that play the Cover 2 scheme that Brooks has ran his entire career.  I'm surprised Indy hasn't signed him yet.

02) Torry Holt - The seven time Pro Bowler finished with less than 1,000 yards for the first time since his rookie season.  Has a chronic knee problem that is worrying to some teams.  Right now the Titans and Jaguars appear to be the front-runners.   He can help those offenses improve their passing attacks in 2009.

03) Jason Taylor - The six-time Pro Bowler had a disaster of a season in Washington.  Plagued by injuries he recorded only 3.5 sacks.  He is rumored to be headed either back to the Dolphins or possibly to New England.   He's probably more of a third down pass rusher than every down player at this point in his career, but he could help a playoff team in the right situation.

04) Roy Williams - The safety ran out of favor in Dallas as he was a coverage liability.   According to a March 19th Boston Herald article he has already turned down an offer and visited the Bengals.  If that is true it doesn't speak well for the team he turned down.  He was expected to have a couple more visits and hasn't signed anything to date.   He can still stop the run with the best of them and could really help the right defense.

05) Marvin Harrison - He's going to have a real tough sell.  Not only was he old and ineffective, but also he was old an ineffective with the MVP quarterback of the NFL.   Holt can at least say he played on a 2-14 team with Bulger in and out of the lineup and an offensive line that couldn't block long enough for Holt to get open.  Harrison didn't succeed in one of the best situations in the NFL.  I expect him to end up with a job if he wants one, but he might have to wait until a team has some injury issues at WR.

06) Orlando Pace - The Ravens reportedly offered him a minimum contract, which caused him to visit Chicago.  He's been injured the last couple years, but when he was healthy he was arguably the most dominant OT in the NFL.  He'll be 34 this year, so he shouldn't expect a mega deal.  

07) Jeff Garcia - ESPN's John Clayton reported that he has received zero interest in free agency.  He is probably going to have to wait until training camp if not the season for a starter to go down and get another chance.  He has great value as a backup and is a smart player that needs to be in a West Coast offense due to his lack of arm strength.

08) Chris McAllister - A couple years ago he was one of the top five cornerbacks in the game.  Now he has been cut.  So far I haven't heard any reports of him going anywhere, but this is the type of player that the Patriots always seem to sign.   He has lost a step and isn't a shutdown corner at this point, but if he was willing to move to safety that could really help some of the Patriots secondary issues.

09) Dre Bly - He turns 32 this year and Rotoworld thinks it will be hard for him to find a starting job in the NFL in 2009.  He is probably going to have to wait and see what comes his way.  

10) Warrick Dunn - He will garner some interest as a third round back, but so far he hasn't gotten an offer.  He may have to wait until some running backs get hurt or wait until after the draft to see what his options are.  I would think he would be a great compliment to Hightower in Arizona.  They could use a third down weapon like him out of the backfield to compliment their two Pro Bowl receivers Fitzgerald and Boldin.

That's my thoughts on the free agency period.  What is your take on the free agency period?  Are you happy about how your team did or disappointed and looking toward the draft to ease your sorrows?  Let me know your thoughts.



As always if you enjoyed this article visit www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for more NFL and fantasy football articles.

Things have taken a pretty crazy turn in Denver this off-season.  Few people thought that Mike Shanahan would be fired; yet that happened on December 30, 2008.  Most people thought they would go for someone with a defensive background to fix a defense that was 30th in the NFL in points allowed and near the bottom of the NFL in almost every major defensive category.  Yet the Broncos went with 32-year old Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.  

Despite not going for the defensive side of the ball in the head coaching search it was going to be interesting to see what the offensive coordinator of one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL could do coming to a Denver offense that was third in passing yards in 2008 under Jay Cutler.  The Broncos figured to be able to build on their solid 2008 offensive showing.

Then the off-season really took a crazy turn.  The Patriots figured to be in the market to trade Matt Cassel, seeing he was not only a franchised free agent, but the Patriots also have Tom Brady on schedule to come back healthy in 2009.  Paying over $25.00 million to two quarterbacks seemed unrealistic.  Cassel getting traded was hardly a surprise.  

The last team anyone expected to get into the sweepstakes was the Denver Broncos.  They tried to engineer a three-way trade with Tampa Bay, where Cutler would go to Tampa Bay and Cassel to Denver, but that trade fell through.  When Matt Cassel eventually left for Kansas City the fallout for Denver was a very upset Jay Cutler.  He has been wanting a trade ever since.  

It has really overshadowed all the free agents Denver has signed.   Denver has signed 13 free agents this off-season, most notably S Brian Dawkins, CB Andre Goodman, RB LaMont Jordan, and WR Jabar Gaffney.  Had this Cutler mess not materialized they would figure to be one of the big winners of the free agency period.

Based on where things are at right now I blame GM Brian Xanders and Josh McDaniels for where this mess is right now.  While Cutler could be handling the situation better and is not without blame the fact is that had they not shopped him they would not be in this spot.  An experienced GM and Head Coach would 1) Never have proposed a trade of a franchise QB and not closed the deal, 2) Never would have told their quarterback that they had not initiated the trade discussions, and 3) Would have patched this up by now instead of trying to repair it through text messages and media interviews.  These two have done their best to make a bad situation worse.

Yes, Cutler could be handling this with more maturity.  But the whole situation screams amateur hour and the combination of Xanders and McDaniels are largely responsible for how this situation has evolved from a small problem to one that has the franchise on the brink of turmoil.

Right now there is posturing on both sides.  The Broncos have tried to have text messages, conference calls, and any other form of communication to patch this mess up.  Cutler wants a trade and he hasn't been doing a lot of mending fences.  It appears to be a stalemate with no resolution in sight.

The reality of the situation is that Jay Cutler is under contract.  In 2006 he signed a six-year deal worth $48.00 million dollars.  That deal does not expire until after the 2011 season.  If he sits out the season the Broncos can fine him for missing training camp.  Furthermore, Cutler would not be entitled to any of his salary if he sits out the season.  He would also lose a year of NFL service.  It just isn't going to happen.  If the Broncos wait this out he will be in training camp come July and they will have their quarterback.  

What the Broncos have to decide is whether it is worth it to have a franchise quarterback that doesn't want to be with the franchise.  This has the makings of a locker room disaster.  Furthermore, if he has a bad year it is going to hurt his value.  His value will never be higher than it is now coming off a 4,526 yards passing and 25 touchdown passes.   

If they wait until after the draft they aren't going to be able to get much for him and Cutler knows that.  That is why he is taking this aggressive stance right now.  He needs to do his best to convince Denver that they are better off without this headache between now and the NFL Draft.   After the NFL Draft he has little to no chance of moving to another franchise.

I think there are a couple things that need to be cleared up.  I've read both articles by analysts and comments by fans that say Jay Cutler is somehow not a proven NFL quarterback, because he hasn't won a playoff game.  Here are three facts about Jay Cutler.   

1)    The only quarterbacks in NFL history that have had more than 4,526 yards passing in a single season are as follows:  Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Daunte Culpepper, Dan Fouts, Rich Gannon, Trent Green, Neil Lomax, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, and Kurt Warner.  

2)    The only active quarterbacks with consecutive 20-touchdown pass seasons (Jay Cutler had 20 touchdown in 2007 and 25 in 2008) are as follows:  Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Marc Bulger, Kerry Collins, Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Kurt Warner.

3)    The only active quarterbacks with a career quarterback rating higher than Jay Cutler's 87.1 are as follows:  Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Daunte Culpepper, Jeff Garcia, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, and Kurt Warner.

Jay Cutler has not established himself as a Hall of Fame quarterback.  He hasn't proven that he can be a winner in the postseason.  But he has proven he can put up numbers in the NFL.  He has proven he has a NFL arm and belongs in the league as a starter.  Not everyone on those three lists list is going to be a Hall of Famer, but all the quarterbacks on those three lists have had numerous years of NFL success.  There isn't a Ryan Leaf or Joey Harrington that accomplished those things.  Any team would be lucky to have someone of Jay Cutler's talent on their roster to build a team around.  At 25-years old the sky is the limit for this guy.  

Second, I keep reading that the guy has an ego.  That this latest incident screams Jeff George behavior and that he would be a bad addition in terms of chemistry.  There is a Sports Illustrated article I read by Peter King back in 1995 called, Countdown.  It was an article recapping a week he had spent with Brett Favre in Green Bay.  There is a part of that article that I never forgot.  I think it sums up why every great quarterback has an ego.  

"The fourth pass play that Holmgren discusses is called Red Right Slot A Right 322 Scat Y Stick. Red means that the basic Packer personnel group is on the field, with two backs, two wide receivers and a tight end. Right means that tight end Chmura is deployed to that side of the line. Slot means that Brooks lines up four yards outside the left tackle and a step back from the line. A means that halfback Edgar Bennett lines up to the left of the quarterback (B would have him right behind Favre; C would place him to the right). On this play fullback Dorsey Levens is in the C spot. The second Right means that Bennett will go in motion to that side. The designation 322 means that Favre will take a three-step drop, the left tackle and left guard will go one-on-one with their opponents, and no one will remain in the backfield to pick up a blitzer on the left side or help out if one of the defenders gets free to attack Favre. Scat means the fullback will be a receiver. Y Stick means the tight end runs a simple six-yard down-and-out."

King goes on to say, "Next time you want to scream at your local quarterback keep in mind that there's a 40-second clock ticking, and that an offensive coordinator is barking into the quarterback's helmet speaker, and that the quarterback has to shout in the huddle to be heard above the crowd. Multiply Red Right Slot A Right 322 Scat Y Stick times 117-that's how many plays Favre and the offense need to memorize for Sunday."

The mere fact that a person believes they can play NFL quarterback demonstrates that person has a massive ego.  What it takes in terms of mental preparation and physical ability to play quarterback at a high level is something that only a handful of people are able to do.  For a person to think they have the capabilities to be one of those very few people immediately screams that they think pretty highly of themselves, probably higher than they should.

You don't get to be a starting quarterback in the NFL without believing you are better than everyone else.  That's just the nature of that position.  What NFL teams are looking for is someone that has an ego that teammates can respect.  They are looking for a person that has a work ethic to match the ego.  When those other qualities are not present you have a Jeff George problem.  I don't believe that is the case with Jay Cutler.

Jay Cutler did not have a negative history with his coaching staff when Mike Shanahan was there.  He does not have a history of problems with his teammates.  He does not have a history of being lazy.  Therefore, I'm not really that worried about him being upset that Denver attempted to trade him.  That alone does not make him a head case.  

People say Jay Cutler should get over Denver trying to trade him, because it's just a business.  Jay Cutler wanting out of Denver is also part of the business.  Denver signed a contract for him to play there just as much as he signed a contract to play there.  Him wanting out is not different than Denver wanting to trade him.  Both are part of the business.

In fact, I'd have questions about Cutler's ability to be a star NFL quarterback if he wasn't upset about that.  Him being complacent about this turn of events would tell me that he really doesn't care how much the team values his performance from a respect standpoint, so long as the checks kept clearing the bank.  To a certain extent I can respect Cutler for that, even though I think he is letting his pride get in the way.  This distraction really hasn't helped him.  Sure he's making Denver look bad, but he's doing it at the expense of his own image.  I'm not sure what he is doing is worth it, but only he and his agent can decide that.

Critics of Cutler say, "But he hasn't won a playoff game?"  Guess what.  Neither has Tony Romo.  The Cowboys released Terrell Owens to give Romo every opportunity to develop into the player they believe he can become.  Carson Palmer hasn't won a playoff game and is coming off injury.  The Bengals are making sure they keep him on the roster.  

Marc Bulger has one playoff win in seven seasons with the Rams.  So far the new Ram's new coaching staff is staying committed to him.   The Saints are staying committed to Drew Brees.  He has one playoff win in eight years.  

Cutler is hardly the only quarterback in the NFL with a poor postseason resume or in his case no postseason resume.  Why are these other teams willing to stay committed to guys that have yet to prove themselves in the postseason?  Because guys that can throw the ball effectively are few and far between.  This notion that Jay Cutler is somehow damaged goods, because he hasn't won a playoff game in just two full years as a starter is ridiculous.  He has the talent to be a playoff quarterback.  He just hasn't played on a team with a defense good enough to get him there.

At this point I believe the Broncos best option is to trade Jay Cutler.  When you think of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks you think of great Head Coach & Quarterback relationships. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.  Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy.  John Elway and Mike Shanahan.  Brett Favre and Mike Holmgren.

Sure, Cutler can still put up good numbers next year, but the goal of every team should be to win the Super Bowl.  The Broncos aren't going to get anywhere if Jay Cutler and Josh McDaniels can't trust each other.  If that's the case, why keep him?  

Whether you side with Cutler or the Broncos the fact is that they probably won't be able to work together at the level necessary to achieve success in the postseason.  Cutler's value is as high as it will ever be right now.  The draft is coming up and they can get a first round pick for him.  If they are going to move him they will never get better value than right now.  A great season won't do that much to increase his value and a drama filled season will significantly hurt his value.   If they are going to move him they have nothing to gain by waiting.

If I were a NFL General Manager I would be ecstatic to get Jay Cutler.  He has arguably the strongest arm in the NFL and is just 25 years old.  Yes he has an ego and yes he has done some things that suggest his attitude is immature.  Jay Cutler is also the type of player that could turn a pretender into a contender for the next five to ten years.  There aren't many guys like that.  Here are the five teams that I think need to close this deal.  

1)    New York Jets - The Jets have gone through a lot of changes since the 2008 season.  They hired Rex Ryan as their head coach.  They have added a lot of defense.  ILB Bart Scott, CB Lito Shepherd, DE Marques Douglas, and S Jim Leonhard.  

The problem is they have lost Brett Favre to retirement and Laveranues Coles to the Cincinnati Bengals.  Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, Jerricho Cotchery, and Dustin Keller are fine pieces.  But they can't succeed with Kellen Clemens or Brett Ratliff at quarterback.  Cutler immediately upgrades their offense and possibly turns them into a contender in the AFC East.

The Jets have expressed interest in acquiring Cutler, so it seems like a logical fit.  The problem is the Jets don't have a quarterback the Broncos would be interested in.  What the Jets do have is the 17th pick in the draft.  They could work with Cleveland to send either Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn to Denver and send their first round pick to Cleveland.  The Broncos could also just take the Jets 17th pick and package it with their 12th pick to trade up and draft either Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez.  That could also yield some additional third or fourth round picks for them to add more talent.  Whatever it takes the Jets should try to make this happen.  

2)    Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings have everything.  They have Adrian Peterson, one of the best young backs in the NFL.  They have one of the best offensive and defensive lines in the NFL.  Bernard Berrian is a good deep threat.  Sidney Rice is an emerging receiver.  

The problem is they have no passing game.  They ranked just 25th in passing yards in 2008.  In the Wild Card Round Tavaris Jackson had 15 completions in 35 attempts for 164 yards, zero touchdowns, one pick, and a 45.4 QB rating.  If they are going to contend with the other NFC playoff teams they need a passing game.  Cutler gives them the one thing their team is missing.  It could make them the favorite in the NFC to go to the Super Bowl.

The Vikings have the 22nd pick in the draft.  They also traded a forth-round pick to the Texans before signing Sage Rosenfels to a two-year deal for nine million dollars.  The Broncos probably won't want Rosenfels and the 22nd pick in the draft.  If that is the case the Vikings may also need to seek out Cleveland to be the third team in the trade.  Short of giving away their entire draft it would be worth it for Minnesota to bite the bullet and make this deal happen.

3)    Detroit Lions - The Detroit Lions haven't had a franchise quarterback since Bobby Layne.  He played back in the 1950s.  They need someone to build their franchise around.  With Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith in place Cutler would have some weapons to work with.   While he doesn't make them a playoff team in 2009, he gives them a solid foundation to build on.  

The good thing for the Lions is that they have two first round picks.  Not only do they have the first pick, but they also have the 20th pick that they acquired from the Cowboys for Roy Williams.  They could swap the first pick for Denver's 12th pick and Cutler.  That would guarantee Denver gets their quarterback in the first round.  They could also trade the 20th pick in the draft.  

This could make a lot of sense, because the Lions are probably the one team that won't need the Browns to get involved in the deal.  They have the first round picks to make this happen.  Getting Cutler would ensure they don't go 0-16 in 2009.  Getting Cutler would go a long way to making them a playoff contender again by 2010.

4)    Tampa Bay Buccaneers - They were the team that was interested in the three-way trade when Matt Cassel would have gone to Denver and Cutler would have gone to Tampa Bay.  This is another team that hasn't had a franchise quarterback in a long time.  Brad Johnson is the best quarterback they have had in recent memory and his physical talents pale to the talents Cutler brings to the table.  Luke McCown is their starter at this point, which is about as raw and unproven as it gets.

It isn't a very good fit for Cutler, because there aren't a lot of good skill position players.  While Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham, and Cadillac Williams give them good backs their best receiver coming back is Antonio Bryant, who had a career year after uneventful stops in Dallas, Cleveland, and San Francisco.  Michael Clayton and Ike Hilliard are pretty average targets at this point in their careers.  

Tampa Bay has the 19th selection.  With Luke McCown as their best quarterback on the roster they will also probably need Cleveland to get involved in the deal.  It's a long shot, but in a division with Carolina and Atlanta at the front of the pack they need to make this deal to keep pace in a very tough NFC South.  If they could add some more skill position depth Cutler in a Tampa Bay uniform would be a scary thought for other NFL teams.  It could thrust Tampa Bay back to the front of the NFC South.

5)    Buffalo Bills - This is a team that a lot of people haven't talked about getting into the mix.  But I think this makes perfect sense.  The Bills just signed TO to a free agent deal.  Trent Edwards has decent value at this point.  Many people view him as a good upcoming quarterback.  However, he is hardly proven and doesn't have the arm strength of Cutler.  The biggest question on that offense is whether he has the ability to take that offense to the next level.

The Bills need to win now with TO and Evans as the big downfield threats.  Cutler would have the arm to run that vertical attack.  The Bills could trade Edwards and the 11th pick in the draft to Denver for Cutler and Denver's 48th pick.  This move could make them a major threat to the Patriots and Dolphins and reestablish themselves as a team to be feared in the AFC.  

There are other teams that could get in the mix.  The Chicago Bears could make sense.  The Bears could trade Kyle Orton and their 18th pick in the draft.  The Eagles and Donovan McNabb seem to be a big question mark.  Do they put something together and make a deal?  Gary Kubiak is a former Bronco coordinator and could make sense in Houston.  Matt Schaub is still highly regarded; he just has injury issues.   Cutler and Andre Johnson would sure look nice in the same uniform.  

If Denver can get multiple teams into the bidding they may be able to drive the price up.  That's why it makes sense to do this sooner rather than later.  Rarely does a quarterback with the youth and track record of Cutler ever make it to the trading block.  Teams will try to get into that sweepstakes and that will benefit the Broncos.  The longer they wait the fewer teams there will be that want to get into the action.

A couple weeks ago I did an article about the Ten Most Pivotal Moments in NFL history.  Depending on what Jay Cutler goes on to become and what team gets him this has the makings of a very pivotal move.  This could be a move that shapes the 2009 NFL Draft and future seasons to come.  It will be interesting to see how it shakes out.  

What are your thoughts?  Do you think Cutler is to blame for this mess or do you think the Broncos dropped the ball?  Where would you like to see him go?  As always I look forward to your comments. 

If you want to read more articles check out the website I write for at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com.