One of the most rewarding parts of writing for a website is interacting with NFL fans. Some of the most intelligent comments come from people that don't write articles for a living, only they follow the game and have an intelligent perspective.

On the other hand, some of the silliest comments also come from fans that will do just about anything to blame anyone other than the players on his or her favorite team for missing the playoffs.

We have all heard the excuses for a team not securing a playoff berth with the most common three being:

a) If only the losses hadn't been so close - A few heart-wrenching plays happen differently, and it is the playoffs instead of a top 10 pick.  

b) The schedule was too tough - If only the schedule had been more favorable; the playoffs would have been a reality. 

c) The injuries were too much - Had our starting linebacker and defensive tackle stayed healthy, those close losses would have been wins instead; you can't expect to win with backups as starters.

If your team didn't make the playoffs it is because they weren't good enough to make the playoffs; it has nothing to do with the excuses listed above and here is why:

1) If only we had won close games in the fourth quarter we would have made the playoffs - This excuse shows a complete lack of understanding as to how NFL games are won and lost. In the NFL, most of the games are close games in the fourth quarter and good teams find ways to win those games.

This point can be illustrated by looking at the NFC in 2008. 

This table shows every team's regular season record, and how they did in games decided by 10 points or less. 

The teams in bold are the ones that qualified for the playoffs.

    Franchise                 Record               Record in Games Decided By 10 Points or Less 

Atlanta Falcons       11-5             (6-2)  

Arizona Cardinals     9-7             (4-3)  

Carolina Panthers   12-4             (6-2)

Chicago Bears            9-7             (5-5)

Dallas Cowboys          9-7             (4-4)

Detroit Lions               0-16            (0-8)

Green Bay Packers     6-10            (3-8)  

Minnesota Vikings     10-6            (7-5)

New Orleans Saints     8-8              (4-6)  

New York Giants        12-4             (6-2)  

Philadelphia Eagles   9-6-1           (2-5-1)

San Francisco 49ers      7-9             (5-4)

Seattle Seahawks          4-12           (2-8)

St. Louis Rams              2-14           (1-5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7              (6-7)

Washington Redskins 8-8                 (8-5)  

a) Note that 58 percent of the NFC team's games were decided by 10 points or less. The six teams that made the playoffs (in bold) combined to go 31-19-1 in those games compared to the 38-60 record of the teams that didn't make the playoffs. That's a winning percentage of .620 for the playoff teams versus .390 for the non-playoff teams. 

b) The Eagles were the only playoff team with a losing record in close games, whereas the 49ers and Redskins were the only non-playoff teams that had winning records in close games.

c) Suppose that all the non-playoff teams had turned half of those close losses into wins. In that case, the Lions, 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams are the only teams that would not have finished with 10 victories last season, and thus are the only teams that wouldn't have made the playoffs had they just turned just half of those close defeats into victories. Furthermore, the 49ers would have been a nine-win club and the Seahawks would have been an eight-win club.

Losing close games is not an accident or misfortune; take it from Hall of Famer John Elway and two-time Super Bowl winning Head Coach Bill Parcells, two experts who were absolutely right on this topic.

Elway once said that they don't pay you for what you do on first and second down. "They pay you for what you do on third down, inside the 20s, and in the fourth quarter".

Parcells is famous for saying, "You are what your record says you are."

Unless you cheer for the Lions or the Rams, every other NFC fan can say: "Had my team won close games, they would have made the playoffs."

The NFL is built on close games and the league designs the rules of the game so that games stay close, which means the excuse lacks credibility if it applies to every team.

 

To read the reason the other two excuses don't hold water visit http://fantasypros911.com/nfl-myths-injuries-tough-schedule-and-close-games.html.  You can also leave comments here as I will be answering comments on both sites.  Do you think losing close games is a good excuse or just an excuse for failure.  Let me know your thoughts.

I would like to take this opportunity to announce that there is going to be a change to the format of my Street Cred Foxsports.com blog.  I will no longer be releasing articles every Tuesday and will be temporarily scaling down the content on my blog.

As many of you know in addition to this blog I write for the website FantasyFootballManiaxs.com.  Recently our website has merged with FantasyPros911, another fantastic website that specializes in fantasy sports and other sports news.  I am going to be writing articles for their website.  

FantasyPros911 is a great opportunity for aspiring sportswriters.  They offer great articles on both fantasy sports and stories around the NFL.  Their commitment to quality content has earned them a Google ranking of five.  Paul Greco, their VP of Business Operations is also the Associate Editor of BaseballDigest.com, the online version of the very popular baseball publication.  He has appeared on ESPN radio in the past.  

The struggle I am having is time constraints.  I just don't believe that I am going to have the time to write articles on a weekly basis for my FoxSports blog and give my full efforts to FantasyPros911.  I set very high standards for my work.  I would rather concentrate on writing a couple of high quality articles than writing five or six average ones.  I believe I would be compromising the quality of my blog and the quality of my work for FantasyPros911 if I tried to do both.  That is not something I am willing to do.

I do not plan on leaving the FoxSports.com community.  FantasyPros911 will allow me to post articles on my Street Cred Blog, provided that I give credit to them for the articles appearing on their site first.  My goal is to release an article once a month at Fox.  If Mike Greenspire holds his NFL blogger competition I would like to enter that again this year with the hope of winning first place.  I also plan to comment on other people's articles from time to time and remain a part of the community as time permits.

This is not a decision that I made lightly.  The Fox Sports Community is where I got my start and you guys have been very good to me for over the last two years.  I have known this might happen for about a month now and I have struggled back and forth how to best handle it.  The Fox Sports.com is a great community.  I believe the people that follow my blog are some of the most knowledgeable NFL fans in existence.  I have been very fortunate to have such knowledgeable fans follow it and thank each one of you for making me stronger.

I would also like to thank all my loyal readers who have supported me in the two plus years I have been writing my Street Cred Blog. Without you guys I would not be in a position to take advantage of this opportunity.  I invite you to stop in over at FantasyPros911 and check out my work over there. I periodically will post articles with links in this community as a reminder.     

This isn't goodbye, because I still plan to remain in the FoxSports.com blogging community.  But I feel that since you guys have been so supportive over the last two years, that I owed it to you to let you know about the scaling down of the blog and let you know where you can continue to read my work.   Thanks again and see you guys around.


Derek Lofland a/k/a Street Cred - www.fantasypros911.com.

Normally I write about the NFL, but the NBA had a development this week that I thought would be an interesting topic pertaining to all sports. LeBron James is taking a lot of heat for walking off the court without shaking Dwight Howard's hand after his Cavaliers were eliminated by Howard's Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals. James also refused to address the media immediately following the loss.

LeBron James who is a darling among the NBA media is suddenly being thrust into a new negative light.  Some are coming to the realization that it's fair to ask if he's arrogant, selfish, and full of himself. He now has a massive ego that makes some people think less of him. Never mind that Mo Williams did the same thing James did after the loss. This is the King and the King shouldn't do that.

The biggest mistake LeBron made wasn't walking off the floor it was not having the foresight to apology for it the next day. Trying to justify it made it worse and kept the story alive.

I have news for you. Every professional athlete has a massive ego. Some are just a little better at hiding it than others. That would be your Greg Maddux types. Some such as Barry Bonds are terrible at hiding it to the point where their ego defines them almost as much as their play. Regardless of style, it is impossible to reach that level of competition without having enormous confidence in your ability to perform on the biggest stage.  With that confidence comes extreme disappointment when goals are not met.  

Playing at that level is as much mental as it is physical.  That competitive fire is essential to drive athletes to excel and reach heights that others didn't think was possible. But when players fail they don't just turn that switch off and take that failure in stride.  Often times it leads to a reaction like we saw on Saturday night.

LeBron James is just the latest example of that. It was fun for the Cavs this season to do the picture-taking skit in pre game warm-ups. It was fun to laugh it up on the sideline when they were killing the Celtics at the end of the regular season. It was fun to win the first eight games of the playoffs by more than ten points. We laughed and enjoyed it with them. But as soon as the Magic destroyed the Cavaliers and the celebration was on, it suddenly wasn't fun anymore and James had to leave the building immediately.

I think LeBron was wrong for what he did. He's the leader of that team and as the leader of the team he should have been front and center to explain why the Cavaliers came up short in the playoffs. Even though he played a phenomenal individual series he shouldn't have left that for his teammates to deal with the loss. Furthermore, it showed a lack of respect to the series Dwight Howard had. As a professional he should have congratulated Howard for a job well done.

That said; enough is enough.  James is hardly the first athlete to do that. The Piston Bad Boys of the late 1980s and early 1990s didn't show a lot of interest in congratulating the Chicago Bulls on getting over the mountaintop at their expense. Brett Favre didn't show a lot of interest in shaking Chad Pennington's hand for a job well done in the season finale at the Meadowlands in 2008.  Pennington beat the team that released him in August for Favre.  Instead of shaking hands Favre just ran off into the tunnel after the game.  Bill Belichick gives the most famous poor handshake in football, especially if he is losing to his favorite assistant at the other end of that handshake.

I think too often we want these coaches and athletes to be perfect people. We want our athletes to be soul mates. They should be funny, but always politically correct. They should have a fire to win championships, but be sportsmanlike along the way. They should represent the city in the best light. They should always give back to the community. They should be smart and have a solid career option after their sport. But they should have a personality that makes us want to have a beer with them after the game. They should be humble in victory and sad, but dignified in defeat. They should be genuine and honest. They should never play for just the money.  They should play for the love of the game. They should love the fans and play for them above anything. They should know when to fade into the spotlight as gracefully as they entered it.  They should never want to play for another team, especially the cities biggest rival.

A lot of men think women are silly for reading romance novels.  That women are looking for that perfect guy in the novel that doesn't exist in real life.  Sports is our romance novel.  As sports fans we do the same thing when it comes to finding our perfect athlete. 

Are we kidding ourselves? Even in the good old days it wasn't that good. We laugh at Babe Ruth hitting two homeruns with a hangover while eating hot dogs in the dugout. Can you imagine if our favorite player were eating hotdogs hung over during the seventh inning stretch in 2009? We'd be outraged, even before we gave that player a chance to lead the team to victory. Do we remember the Babe Ruth that bombed with the Boston Braves?  Of course not. In the 1920s and 1930s they all new when to hang it up. Ruth had a legacy to think about, he'd never do something like that.

The Chicago Black Sox scandal rocked baseball. But we act like steroids is the first time someone tried to cheat the game.  We had segregated leagues that prevented minority ball players from playing in the leagues. Yet we like to remember the old days as being nothing but the good old days. There was plenty of bad going on in professional sports in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s, just as there is today. We just choose not to remember it.

For every player that you respect there is a story that makes you shake your head.  Peyton Manning has been a class act in Indy. But when his own kicker questioned Manning's ability to play well in big spots Manning had this to say, "Here we are, I'm out at my third Pro Bowl, I'm about to go in and throw a touchdown to Jerry Rice, we're honoring the Hall of Fame, and we're talking about our idiot kicker who got liquored up and ran his mouth off. The sad thing is, he's a good kicker. He's a good kicker. But he's an idiot."

Brett Favre was thought of as a man playing the game of football with a kid like enthusiasm. Someone that would show up to play for free.  But as soon as Ted Thompson dare question his ability to play at an NFL level in Favre's advanced years all hell broke loose.  It has set Favre on a three-year mission of retiring and unretiring to prove Ted Thompson wrong and shaft Ted Thompson in the process. Like him or hate him, Favre is always going to be looked at in a different light. No one can deny he was a great quarterback. He might still be. But the fun loving little boy on the NFL field image has not been helped by the last few years of outright distain for Ted Thompson and Packer Management.

Michael Jordan. He was probably the worst. When Dikembe Mutombo had the audacity to say Jordan had never dunked on him not only did Jordan throw down the very next game, but also he waived his finger in Motombo's eye. How about when he closed his eyes to take a free throw in a game the Bulls had a huge lead in. How humble was that? When winning six titles wasn't enough he had to comeback well past his prime to still prove to the basketball world that he still had it at 40-years old. Jordan was a great player. But nobody loved himself or the spotlight that came with that more than Michael Jordan and nobody thrived on proving critics wrong more than Michael Jordan. Nobody reminded the critics they were wrong better than Jordan did either.

What about someone quieter, more humble. Someone like Greg Maddux surely doesn't have an ego. In 2004 Maddux was closing in on his 300th win. Sportswriter Bob Nightengale asked him what was his most memorable confrontation. According to Nighengale Maddux said without hesitation that it was striking out Dave Martinez to end a game a few years earlier.

You would wonder why striking out Dave Martinez in a regular season game would mean that much. Here was Maddux's explanation. "I remember that one because he got a hit off me in the same situation (full count, bases loaded, two out in the 9th inning) seven years earlier. I told myself if I ever got in the same situation again, I'll pitch him differently. It took me seven years but I got him."

You don't think that's a guy with a competitive drive. It took him seven years to get over a guy getting a hit off him.  He never forgot it.  If you don't think Maddux thought he was the best and smartest pitcher in baseball all those years you're kidding yourself. If you don't think he thought he was better than every hitter he faced you don't understand competitive sports.

Even someone like Tiger Woods is not immune to that. Sure he is a nice guy that always has the thoughtful intelligent Stanford graduate answer at a press conference. Try taking a picture of him while he's swinging and see what reaction you get out of him.

The point is that most great athletes will be humble under two conditions.  1) They will be humble as long as no one questions there ability to perform on the biggest stage and, 2) They will be humble as long people still view them as one of the best.  The moment someone questions their ability to play in big spots or their ability to play at all they come out swinging every time.  

Let's bring this back to LeBron James.  That's where this whole article started.  He's the latest one in the spotlight for not acting saintly. Frankly, I'm tired of the criticism. I don't agree with what he did, but I'm not outraged by it either. We want our athletes to not only win, but also dominate the game.  But they should share the ball with teammates too.  They should dominate the regular season, and raise their play to another level in the postseason to close it off with a championship.

We set the bar so high that only a select few athletes have the mental and physical ability to reach that mountaintop.  When they reach that mountaintop everyone sings their praises.  But when the competitive side of their personality that allows them to reach those goals spills out in a weak moment we can't believe what we see.  We're shocked.  We helped create that and are just as much to blame for that as the athletes themselves.

If I would have been LeBron James I would have shook Dwight Howard's hand. But I don't have the competitive fire he has. I can't imagine working as hard at something as he has worked at basketball. I can't imagine the disappointment that comes with losing a series like that and letting an entire city down after a 65-win season. I can't imagine the world expecting me to lead a team to the NBA title only to be blown out. I can't imagine being proclaimed "The King" at age 18 years old in a sport where Bill Russell and Michael Jordan already set the bar.  So I can't say that in the same situation I wouldn't have done the same thing.

I don't feel sorry for athletes that they have the bar set that high. I certainly don't feel sorry for LeBron James or the criticism people are lying at his feet. James is making a lot of money to play that game. If the bar weren't set that high he wouldn't be making that type of money, because there wouldn't be anyone watching.  Play jump rope if you don't want expectations.  If you want the financial success and security of playing professional sports than you have to deal with the criticism and expectations that comes from playing in that profession.

But I'm certainly not going to get mad at LeBron James for not shaking Howard's hand, Brett Favre for wanting to stick it to Ted Thompson so bad that he's considering unretiring for a second time to play for the Vikings, or Kobe Bryant for wearing number 24 instead of Eight so that the video record will be able to differentiate the titles he won with Shaq vs. the titles he won without Shaq.

Because if those guys didn't possess that insane drive and dedication we wouldn't have been able to see all the amazing things they did in their career either.  There would never have been the 25 consecutive points in the playoff game against Detroit, the game for Irv Favre, or 81 points against the Raptors.  

A few years ago I was na

On May 15th it was announced that Colt's 70-year old Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore and 67-year old Offensive Line Coach Howard Mudd have retired from the Indianapolis Colts. There main reason for retiring according to the USA Today was changes in the leagues pension plan.  It is possible that if the league makes corrections to the pension policy that the two could return to the team later this off-season. Otherwise if a resolution is not reached, the two may return to the team as special consultants once training camp starts.

Peyton Manning has had as much stability in his coaching staff as any Hall of Fame caliber quarterback in recent history.  This is a major adjustment for Peyton Manning.  The only two head coaches he's had since coming into the NFL in 1998 have been Jim Mora from 1998 to 2001 and Tony Dungy from 2002 to 2008.  It was going to be a big enough adjustment having Dungy gone and Jim Caldwell in his place.  Tom Moore was the only offensive coordinator Manning had ever had.  Howard Mudd is the only offensive line coach the Colts have had since Manning was drafted in 1998.

It's amazing that they have been able to keep this continuity.  Most times when an offense is as successful as the Colts for as long as the Colts have been successful the result is coordinators that become head coaches.  The Colts were lucky that Moore and Mudd were in their late 50s when Peyton Manning got there, but also didn't have any ambitions to become head coaches.  The result has been this continuity, which has been a big benefit to the Colts.  

Many fans are going to take two extreme positions.  Many of the people that are big fans of Peyton Manning are going to dismiss this as nothing more than a bump in the road.   Many of the people that don't like Peyton Manning are going to be predicting doom and gloom.  

I personally don't think the losses would be a huge deal, except for the fact that they are all coming in the same season.  Successful teams lose coordinators all the time.  That's life in the NFL.  Except for the Colts in recent years. This coaching staff has been there for all of 12 win or more seasons since 2003.   The Colts veteran players are going to have to step up to fill that void and that starts with their leader, Peyton Manning.  

As I said, Peyton Manning is hardly the first Hall of Fame quarterback to loose either a coordinator or head coach after a successful season.  Most great quarterbacks have to go through staff changes because their good play results in their coordinators getting better jobs.  Joe Montana lost Bill Walsh to retirement after the 1988 season.  George Seifert became the head coach and Mike Holmgren became the offensive coordinator.  Troy Aikman lost Jimmy Johnson when he resigned and Norv Turner left for Washington to coach that team the same season.  Steve Young lost Mike Shanahan to the Broncos after the 1994 season.  Brett Favre lost Mike Holmgren to Seattle, who was basically the Packer play caller after the 1998 season.  Finally, Tom Brady lost Charlie Weiss to Notre Dame after the 2004 season.

So how did they do the year after?  Let's take a look.  

32-year old Joe Montana 88: 13 starts, 8-5 record, 238 comp, 397 attempts, 59.9 comp %, 2,981 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 87.9 QB rating.  No Pro Bowl Selection

33-year old Joe Montana 89: 13 starts, 11-2 record, 271 comp, 386 attempts, 70.2 comp %, 3,521 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 112.4 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection & MVP of the NFL


27-year old Troy Aikman 93: 14 starts, 11-3 record, 271 comp, 392 attempts, 69.1 comp %, 3,100 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 99.0 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection

28-year old Troy Aikman 94: 14 starts, 10-4 record, 233 comp, 392 attempts, 64.5 comp %, 2,676 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 92.3 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection


33-year old Steve Young 94: 16 starts, 13-3 record, 324 comp, 461 attempts, 70.3 comp %, 3,969 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 112.8 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection & MVP of the NFL

34-year old Steve Young 95: 11 starts, 8-3 record, 299 comp, 447 attempts, 66.9 comp %, 3,200 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 92.3 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection


29-year old Brett Favre 98: 16 starts, 11-5 record, 347 comp, 551 attempts, 63.0 comp %, 4,212 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, 87.8 QB rating.  No Pro Bowl Selection

30-year old Brett Favre 99: 16 starts, 8-8 record, 341 comp, 595 attempts, 57.3 comp %, 4,091 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, 74.7 QB rating.  No Pro Bowl Selection


27-year old Tom Brady 04:  16 starts, 14-2 record, 288 comp, 474 attempts, 60.8 comp %, 3,692 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 92.6 QB rating.    Pro Bowl Selection

28-year old Tom Brady 05: 16 starts, 10-6 record, 334 comp, 530 attempts, 63.0 comp %, 4,110 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 92.3 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection


Looking at those guys in most cases there is quite a bit of fall off in the first season.  The biggest thing that usually drops is efficiency.  Favre had a 13-point drop in his rating from 1998 to 1999.  Young took a 20-point drop, but part of that was because he was at a ridiculous 112.8 QB rating the season before.  Aikman took a 7-point drop.  Brady was basically unaffected dropping only 0.3 in his rating, but the Patriots lost four more games. 

Montana actually went on to have his best season of his career in the midst of that transition.  Montana was the only quarterback that improved both his passing stats and his team's win totals.  They also won their second straight Super Bowl.  That was San Francisco in those days.  Lose Bill Walsh and promote Mike Holmgren from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator.  Promote George Seifert to head coach.  Everyone they seemed to hire in those days went on to be a very successful.  

Peyton Manning isn't going to forget how to play quarterback without Tom Moore and Tony Dungy. An advantage for the Colts is that Peyton Manning has as much responsibility as any quarterback in the league.  He calls more plays on his own and does more audibling at the line of scrimmage than any quarterback in the NFL.  But I think you are kidding yourself if you don't think there is going to be some drop off in production, especially in the efficiency of that offense.  

Eventually they will get their timing back down.  All of the quarterbacks I listed ultimately adjusted.  Brady went on to have 50-touchdown passes in 2007 without Weiss.  Favre would regain his swagger in the Mike Sherman and later Mike McCarthy regimes.  Steve Young would go on to be as good as ever with Steve Mariucci.  Troy Aikman returned to the Super Bowl and won it in 1995.  Joe Montana never missed a beat.  But with the exception of Montana there was a drop off in the first year after the staff left, either in the quarterback's efficiency or in the wins and losses for the team in the case of Tom Brady.   I would expect that there would be an adjustment period at the beginning of the 2009 season for the Colts.  The question is how long will that period last.  

Even though Peyton Manning won the MVP award last year few people realize that his statistics have steadily been declining for the last five seasons.  His QB rating has gone 121.1 to 104.1 to 101.0 to 98.0 to 95.0 over the last five seasons.  His yards per attempt have gone from 9.2 to 8.3 to 7.9 to 7.8 to 7.2 in that span.  His yards have also decreased the last three seasons from 4,397 to 4,040 to 4,002.  

There is no denying that even Peyton Manning in slight decline is better than almost every other quarterback in the league.  That is evidenced by his MVP award last year.  31 other franchises in the NFL wished they had to deal with that type of problem.  But it begs the question do these changes make that decline worse, does it progress the same way it has been, does he hold steady, or his he due to get back to the guy that was in the 100s for three straight years from 2004 to 2006?  

The fact is that Peyton Manning isn't getting any younger.  Not only is he now 33-years old, but also he has also just completed his 11th NFL season.  He has yet to miss a single start.   He currently ranks tied for sixth in NFL history in wins by a starting quarterback.  With the exception of his knee problem last year he has been relatively healthy.  But he also has a lot of mileage on his NFL tires.

The Colts have a lot of questions going into this season.  How does the team deal with not having Head Coach Tony Dungy?   Can Joseph Addai recover from a season with only 544 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns?  Can the 30-year old Reggie Wayne rebound from a down year that saw him with 82 catches for 1,145 yards and six receiving touchdowns?   Other than the 22 sacks generated by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis the rest of the team generated only eight sacks.  Can the defense improve on that?  Finally can the Colts improve on their 24th ranked rushing defense?  Now they have to deal with the loss of two long time offensive coaches.

I believe for the Colts to return to division champions in 2009 Peyton Manning is going to have to have one of his best seasons.  Not 2004 good, he could probably never do that again, but 2005 or 2006 good.  If his rating drops into the low 90s or the high 80s, I'm not sure the Colts have enough talent on their coaching staff and their roster to survive that.   That was probably the case even with just Tony Dungy gone.   Remember, despite their 12-4 season from a year ago this was a team that looked dead in the water after a 3-4 start.  It is certainly not a 12-4 team without issues.

That job just got a little more difficult with Tom Moore and Howard Mudd no longer on the coaching staff.  If there is any quarterback that is up to the task it's Peyton Manning.  Many thought his numbers would suffer once Edgerrin James was no longer on the team.  That didn't happen.  Many thought those numbers would significantly decline when Marvin Harrison declined.  That hasn't happened.  We'll see how he responds to these latest challenges.  

I think Peyton Manning will have another 3,900 to 4,000 yards passing and be around 25 touchdown passes. But I also think his rating is going to drop a little bit and probably be in the low 90s.  That's still pretty good and when you have Peyton Manning throwing the ball well you always have a chance to win.   The Colts will still be in the playoff hunt.  I'm just not sure if the Colts are going to have that 12-4 to 14-2 record that we are accustomed to them having in recent years.  I'll save my final prediction on the Colts record until I release my division previews later this off-season.

What are your thoughts?  Do the losses of Dungy, Moore, and Mudd mean nothing?  Are the Colts still Super Bowl contenders of did they take a step back this off-season?  Are the Colts possibly in for doom and gloom this year.  Let me know your thoughts.  

For those of you that regularly read my blog.  I don't plan on writing an article next week Tuesday with the Memorial Day Holiday taking up a lot of time that I usually use for writing.  I plan on having an article posted again on Tuesday, June 2nd.  I will be responding to comments left on this article.  Enjoy your Memorial Day Weekend.

Bryn Swartz did a very good article on Bleacher Report call "The 10 Greatest Postseason Quarterbacks in NFL History."   It was posted on May 03, 2009 and can be viewed by CLICKING HERE.  

It got me to thinking.  Who has been on the opposite side of the spectrum?  Who are the quarterbacks that consistently did the worst in the playoffs?  

I had a few criteria for defining the worse quarterbacks.  They are as follows:

a)    Confined to the Super Bowl Era - If you are wondering where Y.A Tittle is on the list this is why he isn't there.  I decided to go with just quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era.  

b)    No Rings - To qualify for the list a quarterback had to be ring less.  That is why guys like Peyton Manning, Steve Young, and Brett Favre are not on the list.   Even though they had mixed success in the playoffs and are criticized for some pretty bad playoff games they still all won a ring.

c)    At least five playoff starts - I didn't want to go with guys that played just a bad game.  These are guys that repeatedly were bad in the playoffs with multiple playoff teams.  Guys that were consistently good enough in the regular season to win at least ten games, but not good enough to take their team to the next level.

d) Stats vs. Wins and Losses - I tried to use a mix of the two.  If a quarterback had a lot of good stats that meant to me that the quarterback wasn't as much to blame for the playoff defeats as a guy that was putting up bad numbers.  I also tried to look at how many playoff wins the quarterback had and the surrounding talent on those teams.  The more surrounding talent the more unacceptable the playoff failure was.  There is no way to be 100% scientific with that, but I tried my best to balance the two. 

Here is my list of the ten biggest underachievers in the playoffs in NFL history.  

10) Donovan McNabb (9-6) - 322 completions, 540 attempts, 3,522 yards, 23 touchdowns, 16 picks, and a 80.8 QB rating - There's a couple reasons he makes my list.  Even though he has a nice winning playoff percentage compared to some other guys on the list he is also 1-4 in NFC Championship Games and 0-1 in the Super Bowl.  In the regular season he is known for not throwing picks.  His one pick every 47.8 regular season attempts is one of the best in NFL history.  In the postseason he throws a pick every 33.7 attempts.  He played big in the 2004 NFC Championship and did have 357 yards passing in the Super Bowl loss, which was only a 24-21 defeat.  He also had 100 yards passing and three picks in the 2003 NFC Championship Game and had three picks in the Super Bowl.  In the regular season he has an 85.9 rating.  It drops to 80.6 in the playoffs.  He has had too much success to be near the top of the disappointing list.  But a 1-4 NFC Championship record and no rings is enough for him to spot in the top ten.  

09) Jim Kelly (9-8) - 322 completions, 545 attempts, 3,863 yards, 21 touchdowns, 28 picks, and a 72.3 QB rating -  With the exception of the 1990 season this guy just played small time after time in the playoffs.  In the two games against Miami and Oakland he combined to go 36 for 52 with 639 yards, five touchdowns, two picks, and a QB rating of 127.00.  That means in the other 15-playoff games he combined to throw 16 touchdowns, 26 picks, and post a 66.5 QB rating.  Other than those two games he only posted one playoff game with over a 100.00 QB rating.  In the 1991 AFC Championship Game they won 10-7, despite Kelly going 13 for 25 with 117 yards, 0 touchdowns, two picks, and a 31.6 QB rating.  In 1992 they advanced to the Super Bowl in large part due to two Frank Reich wins over Houston and Pittsburgh.  Against Houston he came back from down 35-3 to win the largest playoff comeback in NFL history.  Jim Kelly helped them win the AFC Championship, but played awful in their Super Bowl loss to Dallas.

Jim Kelly was a big part of the Buffalo attack in the 1990s.  But the key to their offense was Thurman Thomas who registered six 100-yard rushing games in the playoffs.  Jim Kelly played well in spots, but played three horrible Super Bowls.   He threw an interception once every 19.5 attempts in the postseason, which is horrendous.  He threw at least one pick in 14 of his 17-playoff starts.  As a result Jim Kelly is tied with Brett Favre for the most playoff interceptions in Super Bowl history with 28.  Favre started five more playoff games and threw a pick only once every 25.8 times.  Kelly is easily one of the most turnover prone quarterbacks in NFL history.

The worst was Super Bowl XXVII when the Bills offense turned the ball over nine times.  Buffalo is a tough place to play in January but more often than not Jim Kelly was not playing his best ball in the postseason.  His inability to play good games and to turn the ball over in big spots combined with a defense that was not able to stop smash mouth NFC East offenses was a big reason why the Bills were not able to get over the hump and win a Super Bowl with their very talented teams in the early 1990s.  I'd have him higher based on his poor numbers, but at the end of the day he was the starting quarterback on the only team in NFL history to go to four consecutive Super Bowls.  You have to give him credit for that, even though his numbers were not always very good.

08) Warren Moon (3-7) - 259 completions, 403 attempts, 2,870 yards, 17 touchdowns, 14 picks, and a 84.9 QB rating -  I give him a little bit of a pass for the Houston Oilers struggles.  Warren Moon wasn't playing defense on the team that gave up a 35-3 lead.  Warren Moon didn't give up two fourth down conversions in the game 1991 Divisional Playoff game against Denver.  Time and time again Moon would play well in the playoffs and time and time again the defense would let him down.  Warren Moon's playoff rating of 84.9 is actually better than his 80.9 regular season rating.  But Moon was also known for disappearing in the second half of playoff games.  The Oilers led the Broncos 21-6 in the second quarter of the 1991 Divisional Round before losing to Denver 26-24.  They also led 35-3 against the Buffalo Bills before losing 41-38 in OT.  True the defense gave up those points.  But Warren Moon wasn't leading scoring drives either.  That offensive inability to convert first downs kept the defense on the field and was partially responsible for those collapses happening.  Moon played in the run and shoot offense, which was great for jumping out to big leads.  It was not so good at holding them in the fourth quarter.  It made for a lot of heartbreak in the playoffs.

07) Billy Kilmer (2-5) - 92 completions, 178 attempts, 1,060 yards, 8 touchdowns, 7 picks, and a 68.6 QB rating - Kilmer consistently played well in the regular season.  From 1971 to 1976 the Redskins were 45-19-1 and made the playoffs in 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, and 1976.  But once they got there they were quickly disposed of.  The only playoff trip where they won a playoff game was in 1972 when they advanced to the Super Bowl only to lose to the Miami Dolphins 14-7.   Kilmer had zero touchdown passes and three interceptions in that game.  Other than his two-playoff wins his best QB rating was a 71.4.  During the regular season from 1971 to 1976 he had a yards per attempt that was consistently between 7.1 and 7.3.  In the playoffs his yards per attempt were an anemic 6.0 playing in an era where teams didn't use West Coast offenses to move the ball on short passes. While it should be pointed out that he played in the Dead Ball Era his numbers were still not very impressive in the postseason.  He consistently underperformed in the playoffs and the Redskins consistently exited the playoffs early.

06) Randall Cunningham (3-6) - 181 completions, 339 attempts, 2,265 yards, 12 touchdowns, 8 picks, and a 76.4 QB rating - He could just never get it going in the playoffs early in his career.  The Eagles lost his first three-playoff games.  Randall Cunningham had zero touchdowns and five interceptions in those three losses.  In all the Eagles went 1-4 with him as the starting quarterback in the playoffs.  

He redeemed himself later in his career with the Minnesota Vikings.  In the 1997 playoffs he led the Vikings to a win over the Giants and had three-touchdown passes in a loss to the 49ers.  In 1998 he 34 touchdown passes and ten interceptions as the starter in the regular season.   He had five touchdowns and one pick in the playoffs, but the Vikings special teams and defense could not come through against Atlanta and the Falcons prevailed 30-27 in OT.  He never saw another playoff game as a starting quarterback.  

The Eagles had terrific defenses in the late 80s and early 90s, but their offense died once the playoffs started.  Cunningham was never blessed with great skill position talent in Philly and as a result the teams struggled when he got the playoffs.  On the other hand Cunningham was a dangerous playmaker that struck fear into opposing defenses...in the regular season.  He just never seemed to be able to generate that same excitement in the playoffs.  The Eagles only scored 25 total points in his first three-playoff starts.  Had Cunningham been able to raise his level of play in the postseason the Eagles may have been able to advance further in the playoffs and compete with their very dangerous defense.

05) Dave Krieg (3-6) - 127 completions, 252 attempts, 1,674 yards, 10 touchdowns, 8 picks, and a 71.8 QB rating - Dave Krieg had a 98-77 record as a NFL starter.  He played on Seattle teams that featured Hall of Fame receiver Steve Largent and three time Pro Bowl running back Curt Warner.  Krieg made the playoffs six times in his career as a starter.   When the playoffs arrived there was a lot more failure than success.  His best postseason run was in 1983 when the Seahawks advanced to the AFC title game.  Krieg had is best playoff game that year against Denver going 12 for 13 for 200 yards with three touchdowns and zero picks.  He also led the Seahawks to an upset win over Miami, before losing in the AFC title game to eventual Super Bowl champion Oakland.  The next year he would lead the Hawks to a wildcard win over Oakland, before losing to AFC Super Bowl representative, Miami.  From that point on his playoff record as a starter was 0-5.   The Seahawks, Chiefs, and Lions averaged 11.0 points per game in those five losses scoring only 20 points one time.  His highest rating in those losses was 87.1.  

Krieg never seemed to be able to align himself with a coach that had good playoff success.  His coach in Seattle was Chuck Knox who was 7-11 in the playoffs in his 22-year coaching career.  He left for Kansas City and played for Marty Schottenheimer who had a 5-13 playoff record in his 21-year coaching career.  In Detroit it was Wayne Fontes who was just 1-4 in the playoffs in his nine-year coaching career. That's a combined 13- 29 for his head coaches or .309 playoff winning percentage.  I can't think of a quarterback that played with that many playoff futile head coaches.  But, had Kreig played better in the playoffs maybe those coaches would have won a few extra playoff games.  He certainly didn't do himself any favors with his poor postseason play.

04) Dan Marino (8-10) - 385 completions, 687 attempts, 4,510 yards, 32 touchdowns, 24 picks, and a 77.1 QB rating - Dan Marino just never really looked comfortable playing on the big stage.  In the regular season he set every major passing record in NFL history.  Those records stood until Brett Favre passed the majority of them in 2007.   But in the playoffs Dan Marino was a pretty below average QB.  He only played in three conference championships in his legendary career.  The Dolphins were 1-2 in those games.  In his only Super Bowl he had the misfortune of running into the 17-1 San Francisco 49ers led by Joe Montana.  They lost that game 38-16.  Marino had one touchdown, two picks, and a 66.9 QB rating in that game.

Marino actually wasn't that bad of a postseason quarterback early in his career.  In his first 12-playoff games he was 6-6.  He was 258 for 454 for 3,178 yard with 26 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a QB rating of 84.9.  After 1995 he was a 34 to 38 year old QB that just didn't have the same skill set he had earlier in his career.  Four of his last six playoff games he had a rating under 70.00, which the Dolphins went 0-4 in those games.  They lost a 38-3 game to Denver.  The Dolphins actually did one better the following year losing 62-7 to Jacksonville.  

Marino had some pretty good playoff games early in his career.  He had four touchdowns to just one pick and a 135.4 QB rating in the 1984 AFC Championship Game.  He had two touchdowns and zero picks in a 17-16 win over Kansas City in the 1990 Wildcard Round.  Marino led a drive for a game winning field goal in that game.  He also had three touchdowns and zero picks in 31-0 win over San Diego in the 1992 Divisional Round.  

But too often his teams just came up short in the playoffs.  Like the 1985 AFC Championship Game where they lost to New England 30-14 at home.   Marino had two picks and a 54.9 rating in that game.  The 1992 AFC Championship Game where Marino had one touchdown, two picks, and a 56.5 QB rating in a 29-10 loss at Buffalo.  10 of his 18-playoff games saw Marino throw two or more picks.  The Dolphins were 1-9 in those games.  Compare that to the 7-1 record when he threw one pick or less.  Some of that was poor defensive teams that got down in those games early and forced Marino to take chances trying to comeback in games.  But there is no debating that Marino was not the same quarterback in the postseason that he was in the regular season.  Had he valued the ball better the Dolphins might have won a few more playoff games and may have been able to break through and win a Super Bowl.

03) Dan Fouts (3-4) - 159 completions, 286 attempts, 2,125 yards, 12 touchdowns, 16 picks, and a 70.0 QB rating - Dan Fouts had the misfortune of playing on some pretty average teams in terms of defense.  But he really never shined in the playoffs either.  He had two games where he threw five interceptions.  He threw an interception in six of his seven-playoff appearances.  The Chargers played in two conference championship games.  Fouts was just 37 for 73 with 521 yards passing, three touchdowns, four picks, and a 64.9 QB rating.  

Fouts had some misfortune in the playoffs.  His warm weather San Diego team got caught in the Freezer Bowl in Cincinnati.  The game time temperature was minus nine at kickoff with a wind chill of minus 59.  That certainly didn't help his march to the Super Bowl in the 1981 season.  But Fouts also created some of his own misfortune.  The 1979 Chargers were 12-4 and finished second in the NFL in points allowed.  They only lost their divisional round game 17-14, but Fouts had five interceptions.  They lost the 1980 AFC Championship to Oakland at home.  That final was 34-27, but Fouts got off to a pretty slow start in that game that combined with his defenses slow start saw the team down 28-7 in the second quarter.  

I don't put Fouts at the very top of the list, because for the most part he played on teams with bad running games and bad defenses.  But the Chargers had good teams while Fouts was there and he never seemed to put up the epic numbers he had in the regular season when the postseason came around.  Part of the Chargers playoff struggles has to be attributed to his poor play.      

02) Frank Tarkenton (6-5) - 149 completions, 292 attempts, 1,803 yards, 11 touchdowns, 17 picks, and a 58.6 QB rating - Fran Tarkenton played on some good teams.  His front four was known as the Purple People Eaters.  Carl Eller and Allen Page are Hall of Fame defensive lineman.  Jim Marshall and Gary Larsen were solid on the front four as well.  Paul Krause was a Hall of Fame safety.  Jeff Simeon was a four-time Pro Bowl middle linebacker.  On offense Chuck Foreman was a very formidable running back who made the Pro Bowl five times and scored 51 touchdowns from 1974 to 1976.  John Gilliam was a four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver.  Mick Tingeloff was a stellar center on their offensive line.  The talent was there for the Vikings to win a Super Bowl.

Yet once the Super Bowl came Tarkenton was lost.  In three Super Bowl losses the Hall of Fame QB went 46 for 89 with 489 yards, one touchdown pass, six picks, and a QB rating of 43.7.   In 1973 the defense ranked second in the NFL and gave up 24 points in the Super Bowl to the Dolphins.  The Vikings scored only seven points.  In 1974 the defense only gave up 16 points in the 16-6 loss to the Steelers.  Two of those points surrendered were on a Tarkenton safety.  The Vikings defense scored the only six Viking points of the game.  In 1976 neither side of the ball showed up in a 32-14 loss to the Raiders.  Oakland was up 19-0 before the Vikings scored in the third quarter and 32-7 before the Vikings scored a meaningless touchdown with Tarkenton out of the game.  

Tarkenton played with top five defenses in 1973, 1974, and 1976.  He just never was able to play well in the Super Bowl.  He really wasn't spectacular at any point in the playoffs.  His highest rating game was a 91.7.  He had a QB rating less than 70.0 in eight of his eleven-playoff starts.  He failed to throw a single touchdown in four of his eleven-playoff starts.  The Vikings had the misfortune of having to play Dallas, Pittsburgh, Miami, and Oakland.  But they had the talent to beat those teams.  They also had some tough luck in the playoffs, such as the Hail Mary pass from Rodger Staubach to Drew Pearson.

Even though he went to three Super Bowls I put him this high for two reasons.  1) He doesn't have the excuse that he played with poor defenses or poor running games.  The Vikings had that in place and he still came up short.  2) His numbers are just awful for the playoffs.  Even compared to other guys that played in the Dead Ball Era he was a turnover machine that just didn't make any plays.  He was the glaring weakness on those teams once the playoffs started.

01) Craig Morton (5-5) - 87 completions, 219 attempts, 1,188 yards, 9 touchdowns, 15 picks, and a 42.9 QB rating. - Morton has it all.  He has a poor postseason record.  He also has the worst numbers of any quarterback on the list.  There just isn't much good to say about his postseason numbers.  He had a 34.1 QB rating in the Super Bowl V loss to the Baltimore Colts.  He had just one touchdown, three picks, and 127 yards passing.  His other Super Bowl performance saw him go four for 15 with 39 yards passing, zero touchdowns, four picks, and a 0.0 QB rating.  It is the worst performance in Super Bowl history.  

He had five playoff starts where his rating was lower than a 35.0.  He was 0-2 in the Super Bowl.  Even his wins were shaky at best.  Take a 5-0 win over Detroit in the 1970 division round.  He was four for 18 with just 38 yards, zero touchdowns, one pick, and a 16.4 QB rating.  He also had a 30-28 win over San Francisco where Rodger Staubach relieved him in the fourth quarter to lead Dallas back from a 28-13 fourth quarter deficit.  Morton had a 29.2 QB rating in that game.  Dallas would go on to win two Super Bowls once Morton was replaced by future Hall of Famer Rodger Staubach.  The talent was in place in Dallas, but he just could not come through in those big games.

Morton played on good teams, but always managed to play his worst when the games mattered the most.  To me he is the worst playoff quarterback in the Super Bowl era.  

What are your thoughts?  Who do you think is the worst playoff quarterback in the Super Bowl era?  Do you like my list or think I left someone off?  If you think I left someone off, whom would you take off the list?  Let me know your thoughts.