With four weeks in the books teams are no longer able to use the excuse that they need time to develop chemistry and get into the flow of the season. Several teams are fighting to save their seasons, most notably the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers, two teams that have failed to win a game this year after going a combined 25-7 in 2008.

Here are the top five games I have identified for Week Five, with the rest of the games picked after that. My record for the season is 42-20.

1) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1) - Most people would have thought the Ravens and Steelers would be in control of first place in this division, but instead it is the Bengals that march into Baltimore for a first place showdown. That share for the lead ends this Sunday and I am going with the Ravens in this one.

The Bengals are a good story, but they don't have the firepower to hang with Baltimore, even with QB Carson Palmer playing better. The Bengals made beating Cleveland an adventure and they aren't going to be able to make the same mistakes against a very talented Baltimore squad. I look for Baltimore to win behind their solid running game and strong defense, but don't expect a blowout.  Cincy is better than people gave them credit for and they usually play the Ravens tough. Winner: Baltimore 

2) Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1) - Atlanta RB Michael Turner is going to have his work cut out for him when he faces the fourth ranked 49er run defense. The good news for the Falcons is that QB Matt Ryan and the p****ing game will be able to balance the Falcons attack, although the 49ers also rank 10th against the p****. The key for me is that without RB Frank Gore, Glenn Coffee is going to have to attack the light Atlanta Falcons defense. I think the 49ers are going to struggle to take advantage of that matchup, which means the 49ers are going to struggle to score points and will have to win a low scoring game. It's hard to stop the Falcons offense, so I am expecting them to prevail in a competitive game.  Winner:  Atlanta

3) Houston Texans (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2) - The Arizona Cardinals need a bad defense to get back on track and the Texans are a perfect candidate. The only problem is that the Texans have a bad run defense, ranking 29th against the run, but have a good p**** defense ranking ninth. The Cardinals rank 31st in rushing offense. I have no confidence in the Cardinals to protect QB Kurt Warner right now and I think DE Mario Williams is going to have a very big day on defense. Houston has been inconsistent to start the season, but I think their offense has another big effort and they pull out the win in Arizona. Winner: Houston

4 New England Patriots (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0) - An interesting matchup between New England Head Coach Bill Belichick and his former ****istant, Josh McDaniels. The Broncos are winning behind a tough defense and good ball control. The Patriots are winning by p****ing the ball with Tom Brady and company. This is also a cl****ic matchup between the third ranked Broncos p**** defense and the Patriots fifth ranked p**** offense. It's hard to pick against New England after the way they handled the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens. Denver is exceeding expectations, but I think they drop their first game this week. Winner: New England

5) Indianapolis Colts (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-4) - Many thought this would be a battle for first place in the division. Instead it is a game where Tennessee is all but fighting for its season. It's not going to happen; the Titans are tied with Jacksonville for last place in p****ing defense and QB Peyton Manning has thrown for four straight 300-yard games. Look for Manning to put on a clinic against a poor Titan defense and look for Tennessee to fall five games behind the Colts in the AFC South. Winner: Indianapolis

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