My Newsletter will be posted every Tuesday on FoxSports.com. Here are my thoughts on the third week of the NFL. Please remember there are 32 teams in the NFL, there is no way I could mention every big play made by every player in every game. If you want to talk about your favorite team or player, just leave a comment about it and I while address it.
MVP of the Week: Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning showed why he is considered an all time great quarterback, yet again. Manning completed 24 passes in 35 attempts for 379 yards passing, including four touchdown passes, one pick and a QB rating of 130.5. That offensive explosion helped lead the Colts to a 31-10 win over the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. New Orleans Saints RB Pierre Thomas saw his first action of the season and proceeded to run 14 times for 126 yards and two touchdowns in the Saint's 27-7 win over the Buffalo Bills. Washington Redskins WR Santana Moss had the big game for receivers, catching 10 passes for 178 yards and one touchdown against the Detroit Lions, but Washington ended up losing that game 19-14, giving the Detroit Lions their first win since December 23, 2007, when the beat the Kansas City Chiefs 25-20. Detroit's next streak to end is a road-losing streak of 13 games, which dates back to October 28, 2007, when they beat the Chicago Bears in Chicago, 16-7.
Loser of the Week: You have to start with the Washington Redskins. Anytime you play a team that has lost 19 games in a row, you don't want to be the team that ends the streak. Washington has managed to score 23 points in two games against the defenses that were 31st and 32nd in points allowed in 2008. The problem in this game was running the ball. Clinton Portis had just 12 carries for 42 yards and no touchdowns. In three games he has 47 carries for 183 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. If he doesn't start playing better the Redskins will continue to struggle scoring points. You also have to wonder how hot the seat is for Head Coach Jim Zorn. The Redskins absolutely struggled with the two worst teams in the NFL last year and are lucky to have one win in those two contests. Owner Dan Synder is not someone that is going to patiently sit by and watch his team struggle with teams at the bottom of the NFL, although the word out of Washington is that Zorn's job is safe, for now.
I need to give an honorable mention to the Arizona offensive line, which played as bad of a game as an offensive line can play. QB Kurt Warner was sacked four times and knocked down so many more times that I can't believe he was able to walk at the end of the game. The Colts have a fast pass rushing defense, but the Cardinals have to do better than that against a defense that was on the field for 45 minutes just six days prior to the game.
Game of the Week: It would have to go to the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings. The 49ers had a 24-20 lead with less than two minutes to play and had possession of the ball after Vikings QB Brett Favre threw an incomplete pass on fourth down. Unfortunately for the 49ers the Vikings had three timeouts and were forced to exhaust them stopping the run. Favre got the ball back with 1:29 left on the clock, no time outs and 80 yards to go. No problem. He led the Vikings on a 10-play drive that was capped off with a 32-yard strike to WR Greg Lewis at the back of the end zone with just two seconds remaining. The stunning play gave the Vikings a 27-24 win and a 3-0 start to their season. Even more stunning is the fact that Lewis had been inactive for the first two games of the season and had played only three plays previous to that catch in the entire game. He was as unlikely a hero as you will ever see.
I am also giving an honorable Mention to the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Cincinnati Bengals, who played a thrilling 23-20 contest that saw the Bengals pull the upset. Bengals QB Carson Palmer led a 16 play, 71-yard drive that ended with a pass to WR Andre Caldwell with just 14 seconds left in the game. The win puts the Bengals at 2-1, just a game back of the Ravens and leaves the Steelers at 1-2 with a big game coming up against the San Diego Chargers next week. They need to start winning games or the defending champions are going to be relegated to the Wild Card race. No team in the AFC is playing better than the 3-0 Baltimore Ravens and the Steelers cannot afford to lose more games in the standings to the front running Ravens.
The Bay of Pigs: There was no 9-7 game that was a slam-dunk like the Redskins and St. Louis Rams gave us last week, but I would go with the 23-3 victory by the Denver Broncos over the Oakland Raiders. Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell was held to 61 yards passing in this contest and the Raiders managed only 137 net yards. You just can't win in the NFL with an offense that is that inconsistent. The Raiders now rank 32nd in pass offense at 359 yards in three games, the next closest team is the Cleveland Browns, who have gained 440 passing yards. The gap of 81 yards is the same as the gap between the Cleveland Browns and the Minnesota Vikings, whose 521 yards rank 26th in the NFL. As long as the Raiders struggle to pass the ball they will continue to receive mention in this part of my newsletter.
The Mike Martz Award: I think you have to question the play calling / strategy of the San Francisco 49ers and their Head Coach Mike Singeltary at the end of their game. The San Francisco 49ers took a 24-20 lead with 8:17 left in the game. The 49ers had two drives after that and ran six plays, five rushing plays and one passing play. The 49ers gained negative one yards on the rushing plays and eight yards on the passing play, which was run on third down and 17 yards to go. The result was that the Vikings had three possessions in the final 8:17 minutes of the game.
In Singletary's defense, Favre hasn't looked like that for quite a while. The last 300-yard game he had was on November 22, 2007 against the Detroit Lions; he was still in a Packer uniform at that point. Last year he had two touchdowns and nine interceptions in his final five games. This year he ranked 32nd among starting quarterbacks in passing yards heading into that game. You have to think the 49ers didn't believe Favre was going to be able to go down the field like that at this point in his career.
But then you have another issue. The 49ers quit blitzing toward the end of that game. They had been bothering Favre with constant pressure the entire game and heading into that final drive Favre was 18 for 36 for 221 yards passing, one touchdown, one pick and a QB rating of 67.0. The 49ers went into a prevent defense and he was able to move around in the pocket, buy time and find receivers, which resulted in him going six for 10 for 80 yards, one touchdown, no picks and a QB rating of 118.8. Two of the incompletions were spikes to stop the clock; without those his QB rating was 145.8.
The 49ers are going to learn that you can't stop playing football and go with the prevent defense with a four-point lead and eight minutes left in the game, especially when the guy on the other sideline is Brett Favre. Better to learn that lesson now in an early regular season game than in a playoff game. Singletary is not the first coach to make that mistake and he will not be the last.
Injury Report: Lots of big injuries this week, none bigger than Miami Dolphin's QB Chad Pennington. Pennington dislocated his shoulder and is expected to miss the season. It is the third major shoulder injury for Pennington and at 33 years old you have to wonder what this does for his NFL future. The Chad Henne era is officially underway in Miami and at 0-3 the Dolphins need him to step up.
It also shows why the New York Jets were right to cut ties with Pennington last year. Even though the Brett Favre experiment ultimately was a disappointment; Pennington was never going to be able to take them to a Super Bowl. While they cut ties a year early, the Jets are in a much better position now with their rookie QB Mark Sanchez. It also was a good move for the Dolphins, Henne was not ready to start last year and if Henne ends up being a good QB, Pennington was a great transition from the 1-15 team into the Henne era. Pennington led that team to the playoffs and changed the culture in Miami. Time will tell if this is the end for Pennington in Miami, but I wish him well, he is an extremely talented player whose career has been hampered by unfortunate shoulder injuries.
Other injuries to report would start with 49ers RB Frank Gore. He is out at least two weeks with an ankle injury. St. Louis Rams QB Marc Bulger is going to be in doubt after bruising his rotator cuff. The Buffalo Bills lost two starters in their secondary, CB Leodis McKelvin has a broken bone in his leg and S Donte Whitner has a broken thumb. McKelvin's injury is serious and has him out indefinitely, while Head Coach Dick Jauron says the team will monitor Whitner's injury on a week-to-week basis. It is a big blow to a defense on a team that is already 1-2 and struggling to stay afloat in the AFC East. Colts DE Dwight Freeney hurt his right quadriceps and is scheduled for an MRI, but as of the publishing of this newsletter, there was no word as to the extent of the injury. Finally, Redskins DT Albert Haynesworth has a hip injury, but is expected to be able to play through it.
Overall Impressions of Week Three:
1) This is why the Vikings courted Brett Favre - I'm a little tired of people saying that Favre silenced the critics. He started 8-3 and silenced the critics last year, but once he went 1-4 over the final games and played a terrible end to the season the critics reemerged. The fact is that if he has a five interception game the critics will reemerge. If he crashes at the end of this regular season the critics will reemerge. If he loses a playoff game the critics will reemerge. Anything short of a Super Bowl win is going to give his critics ammunition and they will not be silenced unless the Vikings win a Super Bowl, which in that case it will be a discussion of how little credit Favre deserves and how he was carried there by a great defense and star RB Adrian Peterson.
You can never silence critics, you can only keep them quiet for a limited time. I think that Sunday confirms to the objective football person why the Vikings thought they needed this guy, even though he turned the team down in July and recommitted later in August. Ask yourself, do the Vikings win that game if Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels is the quarterback in that exact same situation, 89 seconds left in the game, down four points, 80 yards to go and no time outs.
According to ESPN's John Clayton they don't. Over the past three years, the Vikings have averaged about nine games per season that have been decided by eight points a less. The Vikings have a record in those games of 13-16. Furthermore, some of those games were games where they were ahead and the defense made stops to preserve the lead. Last year the Vikings had the ball down five in the final minutes at Green Bay and Jackson threw a pick to seal the loss. They had two possessions against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers down by six points and failed to score a touchdown last in the fourth quarter. They lost to Atlanta by seven points and had the ball in the final two minutes, but turned the ball over on downs.
This is a game the Vikings should have lost. The 49ers had the lead and the Vikings were a dead team walking in the second half. They couldn't establish Peterson in the running game, Favre was misfiring on passes and their only touchdown in the second half was a long kickoff return by Percy Harvin. This was a game the 49ers should have won and had they played that game agianst Rosenfels or Jackson, I believe the 49ers would have won.
The difference is that the Vikings had a guy that despite being in the twilight of a Hall of Fame career, he can still do that. That is why he is still the most followed athlete in the NFL. That is why he can't decide whether or not to retire. Even though he can't play at the same level as when he was 25-years old, he still has enough left in the tank to do something like that. There is nothing that can replace that feeling and as long as he can do that, people are going to tune in to watch no matter how annoyed they are with the retirement saga that occurs from February to August.
That isn't an excuse for him not being able to make a decision until training camp is done. The thing people have to understand is that most quarterbacks that are 40-years old can't play at the level he can play. Even at this advanced age he does things that continue to amaze. Like I have said in the past, enjoy rooting for him or against him, because we are watching a once in a lifetime athlete. When it is done it is done and we will never see another one like him. Just when people thought the magic was done, The Old Gunslinger or as Jared Allen calls him, The Silver Fox, pulled one more trick out of the old hat. We'll see how the Vikings use this momentum to carry them into the most anticipated regular season game in recent memory, the Vikings and Favre facing his old team, the Green Bay Packers.
2) How bad are things in Tennessee, Carolina, and Miami - All three of these teams were division champions last year and the Titans and Panthers had first round byes. These were among the best teams in the NFL just a season ago. It shows that last season was last season; all three teams have started 0-3. The last time three division champs started 0-3 the following year was 1999, when the Denver Broncos, New York Jets, and Atlanta Falcons all started 0-3. The Falcons would finish 5-11, the Broncos 6-10 and the Jets 8-8. All three teams missed the playoffs. Furthermore, the last team to start 0-3 and make the playoffs was the 1998 Buffalo Bills. It's going to be a very difficult chore for these teams to turn their seasons around, even though there are still 13 games to play.
Miami's slow start is the most expected of the three divisional winners. They were 1-15 in 2007 and surprised everyone with an 11-5 turnaround in 2008. A 7-1 record against the two most anemic divisions in the NFL, the AFC West and NFC West fueled the big turnaround. This year they have the toughest schedule in the NFL and faced the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers. All three teams were playoff teams in 2008 and the Falcons and Colts won over ten games in 2008.
The Panthers are also somewhat expected, although I thought they would be able to make a wild card push this year. Their biggest problem has been QB Jake Delhomme and the offense and while I didn't think they would be as good as last year, I didn't think they would be this bad either. Last year the Panthers ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards and first in rushing touchdowns with 30; this year they rank 21st and have scored only two rushing touchdowns. That means Delhomme needs to step up and give them solid production in the passing game to penalize teams for putting eight in the box. He currently has two touchdowns, seven picks, seven sacks and a 54.3 QB rating that ranks 31st among starting quarterbacks in the NFL; only Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell ranks lower. As a result the Panthers rank 29th in scoring offense at just 12.3 points per game, so bad that it is worse than the Washington Redskins. That is not a recipe for success.
Tennessee has to be the most surprising team in the NFL. They opened up their season with a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers. The Steelers have since lost games at the Chicago Bears and at the Bengals. They lost their next game to the Houston Texans, who also sits at 1-2 with losses to the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. The New York Jets are 3-0 and playing as good as any team in the NFL.
Former Head Coach and current Dolphin Exceutive Vice President of Football Operations Bill Parcells once said, "You are what your record says you are." Right now the Titans are not a very good football team. One of the biggest problems is they have no efficiency in their passing game, Kerry Collins ranks 29th in QB rating at 69.9. His 55.2 completion percentage ranks 26th in the NFL. He is also turning the ball over; his four picks are tied with numerous players for fourth most in the NFL. All of those numbers are worse than what he averaged last year.
Their run defense has been stellar, ranking second in the NFL at 60.7 rushing yards allowed per game. Unfortunately, they aren't doing very well in the pass defense. This year quarterbacks have a QB rating of 100.7. Teams are completing 67.0 percent of their passes and they have given up seven touchdown passes while securing only three interceptions. Compare that to last year when they gave up only 12 touchdown passes the entire season and had the third best pass defense in terms of QB rating allowed at 69.2. A lot of that can be attributed to DT Albert Haynesworth no longer being with the team. Last year he drew a lot of double teams in the middle and the result was 44 sacks, which ranked fifth in the NFL. The Titans are still sacking the QB with seven sacks (tied for 8th in the NFL), but what aren't showing up in the stat sheets are the QB pressures and hurries that aren't there this year.
Of those three teams, the team I expect to have the best chance to turn this around is the Tennessee Titans. For as many problems as they have had, the silver lining for the Titans is that they have lost their three games by a combined total of 17 points. This isn't a situation like the Cleveland Browns who are 0-3 and been outscored by 66 points. The Tennessee Titans are still a dangerous team that can comeback from this. While they are three games back in the division to the Indianapolis Colts, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans are just 1-2. If they can get on a roll second place is easily obtainable, which could mean a wild card birth.
The other two teams I think are done. The Dolphins needed Pennington to stay healthy; they are not going to survive that schedule with backup QB Henne learning on the job. The Panthers could only be so lucky, Jake Delhomme is playing terrible and deserves to be benched, but they don't have many good options behind him. He was signed to a five year extension with $20.00 million guaranteed in April, a move that was designed to free up cap space, but was puzzling given how Delhomme played in the playoffs last year and given the Tommy John surgery he had during the 2007 season. I just don't see how they are going to survive in a division with the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints with a quarterback and running game that can't move the team down the field and can not stop turning the ball over.
A Look Ahead:
Street Cred's 2009 Regular Season Record: 31-17
This year I will not be including my picks in my newsletter, instead I will release them on Thursday as a separate article. Check back on Thursday as I release my picks for the upcoming games, with analysis of the big factors that will determine the winners.
Check out www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for other articles about the NFL and fantasy football. We received 20,000 hits for our Start / Sit article in Week One and had another strong showing in both Weeks Two and Three. Find out why people trust the Maniaxs for the best fantasy football advice.
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ruggedest - Thanks for the comments. I think we agree on everything this week. Dolphins are not going to recover in the AFC from 0-3 without Pennington. Agree that the Panthers did a horrible job of managing the clock at the end, which was about how they played the entire second half.
StreetCredAs for Favre, agree he can not throw 47 times a game and expect to win. But the two previous weeks people complained he'd have to throw the ball down the field. What the Vikings are showing is that you have to pick your poision. Stop Peterson and let Favre beat you or stop Favre and let Peterson beat you. Neither looks like a solid option if they keep playing the way they have to start the season.
05:26 PM EST