The NFL regular season is just a couple of weeks away, which means it is time to start making predictions on who will win the various divisions and play in the Super Bowl. Here are my picks for the AFC. This article originally appeared on fantasypros911.com:
1) AFC East
The Favorite(s): Even though the New England Patriots did not win the division in 2008 (finished 11-5) and failed to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2002, the Patriots have to remain the favorite to recapture the division. The Patriots are just two years removed from finishing 16-0 and were without the 2007 MVP QB Tom Brady, who injured his knee in the first game of the 2008 season and missed the entire year. He has looked sharp this preseason and with WRs Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Joey Galloway leading the receiving crew, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney running the ball, the Patriots should be in position to have another explosive offensive year and dominate the AFC East.
Most people did not give the Miami Dolphins a chance to compete in 2008 as they improved from 1-15 to 11-5 despite having only a positive 28-point differential. They were able to win many close games with an offense that committed the fewest turnovers and a defense that ranked ninth in points allowed.
The key for the Dolphins is going to be keeping QB Chad Pennington healthy and for DE / LB Jason Taylor to add another pass rusher to help their already tough defense, which was led in 2008 by LB Joey Porter. The Dolphins face the toughest schedule in the NFL based on 2008 winning percentage, with their opponents having a .594 winning percentage in 2008. They are going to have to step up their game if they want to repeat their 2008 success, but they still have a lot of talent, which means I do not expect them to bottom out at 6-10 this year. They will give the Patriots a run for their money.
The Dark Horse(s): The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are both in the same boat in this tough division. The Bills started last season 4-0 before finishing 3-9, and the Jets started 8-3 before finishing 1-4, with their only win coming against the Buffalo Bills. Both teams made major changes in hope to compete with the two favorites.
The Jets did that by changing Head Coach and quarterback. Gone are Coach Eric Mangini and QB Brett Favre and in are rookie Coach Rex Ryan and quarterback Mark Sanchez. Ryan was the defensive coordinator in Baltimore and he wasted no time in free agency adding defensive talent, most notably LB Bart Scott and CB Lito Sheppard. If Sanchez can play well in his rookie season, the Jets have a chance to dominate with a rebuilt defense and strong running game led by Pro Bowlers Thomas Jones and Leon Washington.
The Bills did not make as many changes as the Jets, electing to stay with Dick Jauron at head coach and Trent Edwards at quarterback. What they did do is take a gamble on controversial WR Terrell Owens. If Owens can return to his 2007 form, when he was All-Pro First Team, the Bills will have a much better chance of surviving a three-game suspension to Pro Bowl RB Marshawn Lynch and will be in good position to give the rest of the division a battle. This has the potential to be an explosive offense, but they need Edwards to step up, which means Owens must be a dominant player.
2) AFC North
The Favorite(s): You can make a good case for either the Baltimore Ravens or the Pittsburgh Steelers, as both teams represented the AFC in its conference championship game. Both teams have stacked defenses, with the Steelers ranking No. 1 in points allowed, yards allowed and passing yards allowed. The Ravens were also in the top five in those areas and forced a league best 34 turnovers. The Steelers did not add many players in free agency, but return the core of their Super Bowl team that was 3-0 against the Ravens last year. It's going to be hard to beat a defense that features James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, James Farrior and LaMarr Woodley, in addition to an offense that returns Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Willie Parker and Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes. The Steelers are set to compete in the AFC North for years to come.
The Ravens should be getting better on offense, with QB Joe Flacco now having a year of NFL experience under his belt, but should also take a step back on defense with the loss of Ryan and Scott to the Jets. The key to beating the Steelers this year is going to be whether the Ravens can be more productive on offense, as they scored only 14.3 points per game in the three losses to the Steelers, 10 points less than their season average.
The Dark Horse(s): Neither the Cleveland Browns or Cincinnati Bengals were very impressive in 2008, as the Browns went 4-12 and the Bengals 4-11-1. The Browns don't give me a lot of confidence that they will be able to turn things as they have a quarterback competition where neither Derek Anderson nor Brady Quinn has been able to separate from each other. Jamal Lewis did have 1,000 yards last season, but turns 30-years-old and is clearly in decline. Braylon Edwards has not shown the consistency necessary to be a No. 1 Pro Bowl level receiver. They have a defense that is good at forcing interceptions and average at stopping the pass, but cannot stop the run. It seems like the Browns have a lot of rebuilding to do.
I like the Bengals more as a dark horse than the Browns, simply because Carson Palmer was hurt for most of the 2008 season and they really depend on his talent at the quarterback spot to move the ball for this offense. If Cedric Benson can step up as their starting running back, the Bengals have the talent at wide receiver with Laveranues Coles, the receiver formerly known as Chad Johnson and Chris Henry to score a lot of points. The defense made a lot of strides in 2008 and if that can carry over to 2009, the Bengals could compete with the top teams in that division.
3) AFC South
The Favorite(s): The Tennessee Titans got off to a 10-0 start in 2008, but still only won the division by only a single game at 13-3. That was because the Indianapolis Colts survived a 3-4 start to win their final nine games of the regular season. Both teams are going to have to adjust to major losses from their 2008 team. The Titans are going to be without All-Pro First Team DT Albert Haynesworth, who left in free agency for the Washington Redskins. The Colts are going to be without future Hall of Fame WR Marvin Harrison, who was let go due to declining performance and future Hall of Fame Head Coach Tony Dungy, who retired at the end of the season. They will also be without Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore and Offensive Line Coach Howard Mudd, although both have returned as "special consultants."
Both teams should be able to survive the losses. Jeff Fisher has been the Titans' coach since November 14, 1994, and has the experience to survive tough free agency losses. Chris Johnson and LenDale White are a lethal running back combination and QB Kerry Collins does an excellent job of managing the game. Even with Haynesworth gone, the defense has a lot of talent in place. They will still be a tough unit to score points on, especially with their running game controlling the clock.
Indianapolis has the reigning MVP and future Hall of Fame QB, Peyton Manning. When you have a quarterback as good as Manning you are going to be competitive in every game. WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark are still excellent targets in the passing game and the defense still has a lot of talent, led by DE Dwight Freeney and S Bob Sanders. Whichever team is able to demonstrate first that their personnel losses are behind them will be the favorite to come out of the AFC South.
The Dark Horse(s): The Jacksonville Jaguars were the team that many people thought would emerge as the powerhouse in this division, especially when they went 11-5 in 2007 and became the first team to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh twice in the same season. That just did not happen last year and the team took a major step back with a 5-11 record. They still cannot find any receivers to throw the ball, which has contributed to David Garrard not being able to take the next step at quarterback. Maurice Jones-Drew is still a fine running back, but he cannot carry the offense alone. That does not even include the weaknesses they had at putting pressure on the quarterback and stopping the pass. It is going to be hard for the Jaguars to compete in this division, because the other teams are so tough.
The team that I think has a chance to sneak up on people is the Houston Texans. Matt Schaub could be a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback if he could stay healthy, and Andre Johnson is among the best receivers in the NFL. Steve Slaton gave them a nice presence on the ground with 1,282 yards rushing and nine rushing touchdowns. If the first round picks they have spent on defense the last five seasons can play at the same level that DE Mario Williams has played at the last two years; this is an 8-8 team that could be ready to take the next step in the tough AFC South.
4) AFC West
The Favorite(s): This is probably the only division where there is only one favorite. The San Diego Chargers are among the most talented teams in the NFL and they have had a stronghold on this division since 2006. Philip Rivers is among the best quarterbacks in the NFL and the only quarterback to have an over 100.00 in QB rating in 2008. TE Antonio Gates, WR Vincent Jackson and WR Chris Chambers give him excellent targets in the passing game and LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles are excellent complements in the rushing attack. If Shawne Merriman can comeback strong from injury and Larry English can give them more pass rush as their top pick, the Chargers should be in excellent position to repeat as AFC West Champions. This is a division that is full of rebuilding teams and is the Chargers' division to lose.
The Dark Horse(s): If the Chargers do not win the AFC West, the other three teams will be considered a dark horse that surprised people to win the division. The Denver Broncos appeared to have the most potential to challenge the Chargers, but they traded QB Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears this offseason and WR Brandon Marshall has been injured and unhappy with his contract. If Marshall cannot play at a high level, this once impressive offense becomes average and the Broncos do not have a good enough defense to carry the team, as they were 30th in points allowed last year. It would be impressive if they can duplicate their 8-8 mark from 2008.
The Oakland Raiders have a terrific nucleus of running backs in Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush, but ranked last in passing offense as QB JaMarcus Russell is still adjusting to the NFL game. They also have a very good pass defense led by CB Nnamdi Asomugha, but have not been able to fix a run defense that is perennially among the worst in the NFL. It will be interesting to see if Head Coach Tom Cable can turn this franchise around, one that has been among the worst in the NFL since 2003 and was just 5-11 in 2008.
The Kansas City Chiefs have fallen on hard times and finished 2-14 last year, one year removed from a 4-12 season. They were 26th in points scored and 29th in points allowed. While QB Matt Cassel gives them some hope on offense, it is going to take a couple of years to fix an offense that has a poor offensive line, an aging RB in Larry Johnson and young receiver Dwayne Bowe as its only legitimate NFL weapon in the passing game. They also need to fix a defense that recorded only 10 sacks and 13 interceptions in 2008.
Prediction: I really like the Patriots to bounce back with Brady at quarterback to win the AFC East with a 12-4 record. While the Dolphins aren't going to crash to 6-10 like some people are expecting them to, they are going to find it tough to duplicate the few turnovers and defensive success they had in 2008 against the NFL's toughest schedule.
In the AFC South, I am going to go with a dark horse. I think the Titans defense is going to miss Haynesworth, but I also think the Colts are going to miss all those coaches more than people think. The Texans is a team that has slowly been getting better and after starting 0-4 in 2008, they went 8-4 the rest of the way, including wins in five of their last six games. I look for them to surprise people and take a very competitive AFC South with an 11-5 record. I still think the Titans have enough of a running game and a defense to take the Wild Card at 10-6. The Colts will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2001, but will still have a winning record at 9-7.
In the AFC North, I still like the Steelers to win the division at 13-3. I don't think the Bengals or the Browns have the talent to compete with the top two teams, and while the Ravens were close to the Steelers last year, I think they had a lot of losses in free agency that make it difficult to argue they will overtake the Steelers. They will still make the playoffs as a Wild Card at 10-6.
In the AFC West I like the Chargers to win the division at 11-5. I would pick them to finish with a better record, but Norv Turner never seems to have the team clicking at the beginning of the season.
I think the Steelers and the Chargers will face off in the AFC Championship Game, with the Steelers prevailing in the title game.
That will leave the state of Pennsylvania to face each other in the Super Bowl, with the Eagles finally getting over the hump with Andy Reid and QB Donovan McNabb earning a Super Bowl ring, which to this point has eluded them.
Check out my NFC predictions
Super Star
Ahem - Mr streetcred, still looking at 8-8 for the 6-0 Broncos?
spinster7608:00 PM EST