The NFL regular season is just a couple of weeks away, which means it is time to start making predictions on who will win the various divisions and play in the Super Bowl. Here are my picks for the NFC. This article originally appeared on the website, fantasypros911.com.
1) NFC East
The Favorite(s): You can pretty much flip a coin between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants in this division. I ranked the Eagles No. 3 in my opening power rankings, with the Giants coming in at No. 4. Each team has a great claim for the front-runner in not only the division, but also the entire NFC.
The Giants had the superior 2008 record, going 12-4 compared to the Eagles' 9-6-1, but the Eagles won two of the three head-to-head meetings with the Giants last year, including the divisional round rubber match. The Eagles ranked sixth in scoring offense and fourth in scoring defense last year. The Giants were third in scoring offense and fifth in scoring defense.
The Giants have a big advantage in rushing the football, as their 2,518 rushing yards led the NFL last season. The Eagles, on the other hand, ranked only 22nd in rushing offense, as their big weapon, RB Brian Westbrook, is not only a dangerous runner, but has averaged 71 receptions the last five seasons. He is a big reason that Donovan McNabb's Eagles have the more dangerous passing game, which ranked fourth in the NFL last year. The Giants were only 18th in that department in 2008, led by their Pro Bowl QB Eli Manning.
Both teams made a lot of moves in free agency and the draft. The Eagles attempted to bolster their offense by adding Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews to their already tough offensive line. They also drafted speed WR Jeremy Macklin and RB LeSean McCoy.
The Giants drafted Hakeem Nicks to fill the shoes of Plaxico Burress at receiver and added DE Chris Canty, DT Rocky Benard and LB Michael Boley to a defense that is also receiving a boost with the return of Pro Bowl DE Osi Umenyiora to the mix. These two teams will battle it out all season for the NFC East crown and the No. 1 Seed in the NFC.
The Dark Horse(s): The Dallas Cowboys are still a very talented team in the competitive NFC East, but unfortunately for them, they did not live up to Super Bowl expectations in 2008. They have QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber III, TE Jason Witten and WR Roy Williams on offense, which is a very dangerous quartet of talent; all four have made at least one Pro Bowl in their careers. They have a defense that led the NFL in sacks last year with 59 behind LB DeMarcus Ware, who recorded a league-leading 20 sacks and finished runner up to the Steelers' James Harrison for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. If they can improve their chemistry and consistency, they have enough talent to compete with the Giants and Eagles in the NFC East.
The Redskins are probably the odd team out in this division. Newly acquired DT Albert Haynesworth is an All-Pro talent, which should improve their sack and interceptions totals from a year ago, both of which were toward the bottom part of the league. However, their offense only averaged 12.5 points per game over the final eight games. If QB Jason Campbell does not step his game up this year, and if RB Clinton Portis cannot stay healthy and dominant, they are looking at being the clear cut fourth team in this division.
2) NFC North
The Favorite(s): This is probably a two-team race between the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears. The Vikings edged out the Bears last season by just one game. They were able to do that thanks to a rush defense that ranked first in the NFL, led by the Pro Bowl combination at DT, Kevin and Pat Williams. They also ranked fifth in rushing yards gained, with Adrian Peterson leading the league with 1,760 yards rushing. Now they add Brett Favre to the quarterback position, which was a major question mark for the Vikings in 2008. If he can recover from his bicep tendon injury and play at a high level, the Vikings should be a Super Bowl contender.
The NFC North picture changed when the Bears made a trade with the Denver Broncos for Pro Bowl Quarterback Jay Cutler, who is just 26-years-old. Both teams were very weak at quarterback last year, with the Vikings ranking 25th in passing yards and the Bears ranking 21st. That was a big reason why the Vikings felt the need to upgrade at quarterback with Favre. If Cutler can bring his passing prowess from the Broncos to the Bears and Favre struggles at the age of 40, it may be enough to change the balance of power in this tight division.
The Dark Horse(s): The Detroit Lions are not much of a dark horse in 2009, as they went 0-16 last year. WR Calvin Johnson and RB Kevin Smith have bright futures in the NFL and rookies QB Matthew Stafford and TE Brandon Pettigrew give the team something to shoot for in the future. For now the offense is too young and inexperienced to make up for the shortcomings of a defense that allowed a league worst 517 points in 2008.
The team that has a chance to be a sleeper in this division is the Green Bay Packers. The Packers were the only team in the NFL to feature a 4,000-yard passer in Aaron Rodgers, two 1,000-yard receivers in Greg Jennings and Donald Driver and a 1,200-yard rusher in Ryan Grant. While many people, including yours truly, thought the Packers would struggle on offense without Favre, the Packers finished fifth in points scored and eighth in yards gained in 2008.
The problem was a defense that ranked 26th against the run and gave up many leads in the fourth quarter. The Packers replaced all but Winston Moss on their defensive coaching staff, named Dom Capers the Defensive Coordinator, switched to a 3-4 defense and spent two first round picks on DT B.J. Raji and LB Clay Matthews. If they can make the transition from the 4-3 to the 3-4 and the Packers offense can duplicate their success from 2008, this team has enough talent to contend in the NFC North. Asking two rookies to turn around the fortunes of an entire defense is a tall task, but to date the Packers have looked very solid in the preseason making that transition.
3) NFC South
The Favorite(s): Like the NFC East, the NFC South is a division that is loaded with talented teams. The two with the most promise are the Carolina Panthers, who won the division with a 12-4 record in 2008, and the Atlanta Falcons, whom secured a Wild Card birth with an 11-5 record.
The Panthers are still considered by many to be the slight favorite, led by the running back tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The two led a Panther attack that rushed for 2,437 yards and 30 touchdowns. Steve Smith is still a formidable weapon at receiver with 78 catches for 1,421 yards and Jake Delhomme is a veteran quarterback that has been through the wars. If DE Julius Peppers and MLB Jon Beason can keep the defense playing at a high level, the Panthers have an excellent chance to repeat as NFC South Champions, something that has never happened in the NFC South's brief history.
The Falcons are an offense that is quickly on the rise. QB Matt Ryan enters his second year coming off a rookie season in which he threw for 3,440 yards and 16 touchdowns. The good news is that TE Tony Gonzalez is now entering the fold, which should really help their passing game. WR Roddy White finally received his rich contract extension and made it to camp. The deal was for six years and an estimated $50 million, with an estimated $18 million guaranteed. They need to get him to pick up where he left off in 2008 with 88 catches, 1,382 yards and seven touchdowns.
Both teams appear to be loaded on offense. Defense is where they have the most questions. The Falcons were 11th in points allowed, but 24th in yards allowed in 2008. The Panthers were 12th in points allowed and 18th in yards allowed. Whichever team is able to realize the most improvements on the defensive side of the ball this year will be in the best position to win the NFC South in 2009.
The Dark Horse(s): The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were sitting at 9-3 and looked prime to earn a playoff spot last year. They finished the season 0-4 and missed the playoffs. Head Coach Jon Gruden was let go and Raheem Morris was hired to take his place. A rebuilding effort has since taken place, with veterans like QB Jeff Garcia, RB Warrick Dunn, WR Joey Galloway and OLB Derrick Brooks no longer with the team. Given how the Buccaneers finished the season and the players they let go, it would be difficult to believe that they are going to contend in this brutal division. I believe the Buccaneers are going to be competing for a top five draft pick.
That leaves the New Orleans Saints as the dark horse in this division. The positive is that they have one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. QB Drew Brees became the first quarterback to top 5,000 yards passing since Dan Marino did it in the 1984 season. RB Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are an excellent one-two punch at running back, with Thomas gaining the tough yards and Bush catching passes out of the backfield. WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem give Brees a lot of targets down field and TEs Jeremy Shockey and Billy Miller give defenses more targets to guard in the middle of the field.
The problem is that they did not have a lot of defense to support that explosive offense; the defense was 26th in points allowed and 23rd in yards allowed. If SS Darren Sharper and rookie CB Malcom Jenkins can improve the play of the secondary and new Defensive Coordinator Greg Williams can turn around the defense's production, the Saints will be able to compete with the two favorites at the top of the division.
4) NFC West
The Favorite(s): The Arizona Cardinals made the best of a favorable situation, by winning one of the worst divisions in the NFL with a 9-7 record. They capitalized on that good fortune by winning three playoff games and making their first appearance in the Super Bowl. QB Kurt Warner enjoyed one of his best seasons with 4,583 yards passing, 30 touchdown passes, 14 picks and a 96.9 QB rating. WR Larry Fitzgerald established himself as the best receiver in football with 96 catches, 1,431 yards and 12 touchdowns. WR Anquan Boldin chipped in with 89 catches, 1,038 yards and 11 touchdowns.
The problem with the Cardinals is that they featured the worst running offense in the NFL with just 340 attempts and 1,178 rushing yards. They tried to remedy that by releasing veteran RB Edgerrin James and drafting Chris Wells.
Their other shortcoming was on pass defense, where they ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed and gave up the most passing touchdowns in the NFL with 36.
Those suspect numbers combined with Kurt Warner being 38-years-old make a lot of people skeptical of the Cardinals' ability to repeat, which leaves to door open for a familiar NFC West Champion, the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks had many injuries last year, especially at quarterback and wide receiver. They also underachieved on the defensive side of the ball, where they ranked 32nd in pass yards allowed.
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh was brought in to help a receiving core that lacked a No. 1 talent, and if QB Matt Hasselbeck can stay healthy this year, their passing offense will improve from its 30th ranking. Combine that with the additions of DTs Colin Cole, Cory Redding and rookie LB Aaron Curry, and the Seahawks could be looking at a bounce back from a very disappointing 4-12 2008 season.
The Dark Horse(s): Similar to the Lions, the St. Louis Rams are too much of a rebuilding project to be considered even a dark horse this year. Their defense allowed 465 points, which would have been the worst in the NFL had it not been for the 517 points given up by the Lions. Former Giants Defensive Coordinator and new Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo will bring a much tougher approach to defense, but he is going to need more than a year to fix that mess. RB Steven Jackson is still a dangerous weapon, but can't stay healthy and QB Marc Bulger hasn't played like a Pro Bowl quarterback since 2006 and is one more bad year away from losing his job.
The dark horse in this division could be the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers went 5-4 after Mike Singletary took over and his intensity seems to be rubbing off on this underachieving team. They have a tough defense in place, led by Patrick Willis, one of the most promising young linebackers in the NFL.
Had they been able to sign rookie receiver Michael Crabtree in time for camp, I might have considered swapping them with the Seahawks, but his contract is not even close to being completed and there are already rumblings that he might sit out the season. Without him involved in the offense, they are still terribly short of playmakers on offense and RB Frank Gore cannot be expected to carry this offense to the playoffs. Shaun Hill needs all the help he can get as the starting quarterback and everyday Crabtree sits out hurts this team's chances of competing in a division that is wide open and ripe for the taking.
NFC Prediction: I like the Eagles to win the NFC East and be the No. 1 Seed with a 12-4 record, with the Giants finishing as the top wild card, just a game back of the Eagles at 11-5. The reason I like the Eagles is that I think they retooled an offense that was too inconsistent last year and still have the defensive tools in place. In New York, I am nervous about the lack of an established No. 1 receiver, something that hurt the Giants in December and in the playoff loss to the Eagles.
In the NFC South, I like the Falcons and Panthers to finish with a 10-6 record, with the Falcons winning the tiebreaker and the Panthers earning the final wild card spot. The NFC South has one of the toughest schedules this year facing the NFC East and AFC East, which is going to prevent those teams from having better records.
In the NFC North, I like the Vikings to win the division and earn a first round bye at 11-5, thanks to the addition of Favre, which counteracts the Bears addition of Cutler and keeps the Vikings as the superior team in the division. The Bears will be close behind and will finish 9-7, just a game out of the playoff mix. The Bears will be improved with Cutler, but the lack of a No. 1 receiver is going to prevent them from realizing that improvement in the form of more wins in his first year. The Packers will struggle to reach .500 with a defense that is transitioning to a 3-4, despite the fact that they have played solid in preseason, a part of the football calendar that means almost nothing to me.
Finally, I like the Seattle Seahawks to rebound from a subpar 2008 year to win the NFC West with a 9-7 record. The Cardinals and 49ers will be right in the mix, but finish just out of the playoffs.
I look for the Eagles and the Vikings to face each other in the NFC Championship Game with the Eagles advancing to their first Super Bowl since the 2004 season.
Check out my AFC predictions and Super Bowl winner.
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Fire Ted - Whose Ted, lol. I'm with you.
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