As I continue my weekly post predicting the NFL, this week I focus on my favorite division, the NFC North.   The reason it is my favorite division is not because it is the best in football; in fact, it is far from it.  The reason I love this division is that the Green Bay Packers are my favorite team.   Without further delay, here is how I see the NFC North playing out this season. 

Chicago Bears

Strengths:  The strength of this team is the same as it has been since 2000.  Brian Urlacher and the defense.  Brian Urlacher is as fine of a defensive player as any in the league.  He is one of those players that everyone wishes they had on their team.  The main problem that caused the Bears defense to break down at the end of last season was injuries to Harris and Brown, legal problems for Tank Johnson, and Rex Grossman being Rex Grossman.  The Bears also had the best special teams in the league last season.  Hester returned 6 touchdowns for the Bears.  Gould was as dependable a kicker as any in the league.  The Bears also have a very strong head coach.  Lovie Smith was a winner in Tampa, came to St Louis and turned that defense around, and since taking over the Bears in 2004, has won 2 division titles and led the Bears to a Super Bowl.  Coaching in Chicago is a challenge unlike any other.  Every team is compared to the 85 Bears.  Every coach is compared to "Da Coach."  While the Bears will never measure up to the 85 standard, this should still be a very good team.  Its defense gives them a chance to win every Sunday. 

Weaknesses:  The main weakness is the offense, and it starts at the quarterback position.  Rex Grossman was as up and down as they came last year.  His first 5 starts produced 4 games with a 98.0 rating or higher.  He had 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.  Enter the next 11 weeks of the season.  A 36.8 rating against the Dolphins.  A 10.2 rating against the Cardinals.   A 1.3 rating against the Vikings.  And my personal favorite, a 0.0 rating against the Packers.   Sorry Bear fans, but I had to get that one in.  Grossman redeemed himself by having 2 solid outings against the Seahawks and the Saints.  Then came the Super Bowl, where he fumbled and bumbled his way to a dreadful performance.  If the Bears are going to stay atop the division, Rex Grossman has to play with more consistency.  When he plays within himself, he can be as good as any quarterback in the league.  When he throws off his back foot, scrambles around, and tries to play like a playground quarterback, he throws pick after pick.  Grossman also has a problem putting bad plays out of his head.  Once he makes his first mistake, it seems as if he tries to correct it with one big play, which adds to more mistakes.  Other question marks besides Grossman are the running game and wide receiver.  Thomas Jones was traded to the Jets.  That leaves Benson as the featured back.  He has to show that he is mature enough to be able to shoulder the responsibility.  The receiver position is not really anything to write home about.  Berrian looks to have promise.  Muhhamad has been a good possession receiver, but has not performed at a high enough level to warrant his big contract.  It will be interesting to see what Hester can do at wide receiver.  Rookie tight end Olson was a much-needed addition to the passing game.        

Prediction:   This division would be pretty easy to pick if the top two teams in the division had not had such an interesting offseason.  The Bears have had all kinds of problems.  They traded Thomas Jones to move up in the second round.  That pick landed them Dan Bazuin.  While he may end up being a terrific player, it is hard to see how he makes them a better offense this season, seeing he plays defensive end, a position the Bears are already loaded at.  While the Bears probably had to choose between Jones and Benson, leaving them with just Benson makes them unproven at running back.  The Lance Briggs and Tank Johnson sagas will be interesting to follow.  It will also be interesting to see how those issues, combined with the departure of Rivera affects the defense.  In the end, the Bears were a 13-3 team last season, with the Packers being the closest competition in the division at a distant 8-8.  The Bears were so ahead of the division they clinched in early December.  The Packers have done nothing of consequence to upgrade the roster, other than the NFL draft.   I think the Packers will be slightly improved, and the Bears will slip a bit.  If Grossman plays the entire season like he did the second half of last season, I could see the Packers having a shot at catching the Bears.  Also, history has not been kind to defending Super Bowl losers.  Ask the Raiders, Panthers, Eagles, and Seahawks how their follow up campaigns treated them.  The Seahawks were the only team to repeat as division champs and the only team to make the playoffs.  However, the Bears are very similar to the Seahawks in that they don't play in the strongest of divisions.  Until the Bears prove they are not the class of this division, it is their division to lose. 

Record:  11-5, NFC North Division Title, NFC #2 seed     

Green Bay Packers

Strengths:   The strength of the Packers for the last 15 seasons has always been their offense, led by Brett Favre.   While he was not 1996 Brett Favre, he showed that he was still capable of leading this team to victory.  What is surprising is that in the 4 game winning streak to end the season, Favre had only 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.   The Packers defensive side of the ball made that streak happen.  This may be one of the first seasons in recent memory where the defense enters the season as the strength of the team.  The Packers ranked 12th in total yards and 13th in rushing defense.  Charles Woodson was a nice addition to the defense last season, with his 8 interceptions.   AJ Hawk had a great rookie campaign.  Aaron Kampman had a breakout year with 16 sacks.  While the defense allowed the 26th most points in the league, they closed the season on a 4 game winning steak, giving up just 10.5 points per contest.  Some of that was due to playing the Lions, Vikings, and Bears on New Years Eve Vacation.  Some of it had to do with moving Jenkins to defensive end on running downs, and having KGB in the game on passing situations.  That move seemed to sure up there run defense.  Some of it had to do with their young players growing up.  If draft picks Harrell and Rouse can have an immediate impact, along with the young players continuing to grow; the Packers have a chance to enter the top 10 defensive units in the NFL.     

Weaknesses:  The Packers at times looked like a team that was dazed and lost last season.  While they won their last 4 games, they were also 4-8 prior to that streak.  They lost games to the Bears, Jets, and Patriots 0-26, 10-38, and 0-35.  All of those games were at home.  If the Packers want to become a playoff team again, they have to play better at home against quality teams.  While the Packers were 9th in total yards and 8th in passing yards, they were only 23rd in rushing offense.  That explains a lot of the problems they experienced in the red zone, where they were the worst team in the NFL.  Teams could double team Driver and not respect the running game.  That is one reason why I do not believe the Packers will miss Ahman Green this season.  If this were the Ahman Green from 2003, the Packers would be in horrible shape.  Since 03, Ahman Green has not rushed for more than 1,200 yards or more than 7 touchdowns.  A lot of that has to do with injuries.  He also cost the Packers with his fumbling problems.  The problem isn't so much that the Packers let Green leave, it's that they haven't replaced him with anyone who has proven himself in the NFL.  The other reason the Packers were so bad in the red zone last season was the tight end position.  It seems impossible that Bubba Franks had only 25 receptions and no touchdowns.  He has never been big with receptions and yards, but when he was going to the Pro Bowl, he was good for 7-9 touchdowns a year.  Since the Packers did not add a tight end this offseason, he needs to return to his 2002-2004 form.  Finally, Brett Favre has to make better decisions in the red zone.  The Packers were devastated by a fumble in the redzone against the Rams and an interception against the Bills.  Those plays came at critical times in the game, and might have been the difference in the Packers failing to beat out the Giants for the wildcard. 

Prediction:  Even though I was very disappointed in the offseason, I think the Packers should be able to improve from last seasons 8-8 record.  One thing that helps them is the Lions and Vikings being in there division.  The Vikings are woeful at quarterback, and the Lions have been woeful in general.  The Packers had one of the youngest teams in the league last season and seemed to put it together at the end of the season.  While they didn't make a lot of additions in free agency, Ahman Green was really their only notable loss.  History shows that it is not necessarily a bad thing to be young at running back.  While the league doesn't see a lot of rookie 1,000-yard receivers, the league is filled with rookie running backs that have topped the 1,000-yard plateau.  Terrell Davis, Curtis Martin, and Fred Taylor, and Cadillac Williams all rushed for 1,000 yards in their rookie seasons.  Look at lat season.  Even though Reggie Bush was the big name in last years draft, Joseph Addai had 1,000 yards as a late first round pick and Maurice Jones-Drew scored 15 touchdowns as a 2nd round rookie rusher.  If the Packers have found the right guy in the draft in Brandon Jackson, Morency and him should be able to carry this load.   It is nice that Jackson played in a zone blocking scheme for Nebraska.  The schedule maker was generous in giving the Packers the Eagles and Giants at the beginning of the season.  With McNabb's knee injury and Tiki Barber's retirement, it is probably a break to play those teams early in the season.  Even if McNabb starts that game, it will be his first regular season game back from major knee surgery.  The schedule maker was also brutal giving the Packers back-to-back games at Denver and Kansas City in weeks 8 & 9.  Those stadiums are as difficult to win in as any in the league.  Even though free agency was a non factor, this was the youngest team in the league last season.  The NFC is down and the Packers finished the season on such a strong note, that it isn't that unrealistic to think that the Packers improve just one game.  If they can, they should be able to sneak into the playoffs.     

Record: 9-7, 2nd NFC North, NFC #6 seed 

Detroit Lions

Strengths:  The Lions are loaded at wide receiver this season.  Even though Charlie Rodgers and Mike Williams are a sour subject with Lions fans, drafting Calvin Johnson was the right move.  He was the best available player in this draft.  Combing him and Roy Williams should make the Lions a competitive passing team for years to come.  Also, remember that Mike Furrey had 98 grabs last season.  Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell have shown signs of being Pro Bowl running backs, but neither have been able to put together a consistent season.  It will be interesting to see if Bell follows the trend of Denver running backs that have lost their way after leaving Denver.  While Kitna is a journeyman quarterback, he has shown that when surrounded with the right talent, he is capable of putting up solid numbers.  Mike Martz is starting to get the right pieces in place to play the wide-open offensive style that he likes.  The Lions are probably the right quarterback away from becoming an offensive juggernaut.  While Stanton isn't going to be that guy this year, he may very well get the chance in the near future if Kitna does not produce at a high level. 

Weaknesses:  The main problem with this has been the defense.  This unit was 30th in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed.  While Calvin Johnson was the right pick, it didn't help sure up this defensive unit.  Edwards, Bailey, and Simms are nice young players that have the Lions headed in the right direction.  However, the Lions lost Dre Bly at cornerback in the Tatum Bell deal.  Cory Redding should upgrade the middle of the defensive line, although like many teams this offseason, I believe the Lions overpaid for his services.  The secondary is going to be the interesting part.  Bryant, Wilson, Bullocks, and Kennedy would sound much more intimidating as a law firm, rather than an NFL secondary.   That projected starting unit brings exactly 2 picks from last season to the table, both by Kennedy as a Bronco.  If the Lions are able to generate a pass rush with their front seven, they may be able to compensate for the lack of production in the secondary. 

Prediction:  The easy thing to do would predict this team to go 3-13 or 4-12.  Since 2001, the Lions have not had a season in which they did not lose at least 10 games.  Only the Ford family knows why Matt Millen still has a job.  While I thought he was a good hire going in, he just hasn't been able to get this thing turned around.  While he has made some good moves the last few seasons, the perception around the league is that this organization is incompetent.  It is hard to attract big time free agents, when the team has that type of perception.  The Lions are probably going to have to can Matt Millen and bring in a GM who can make good players want to come to Detroit.  The reason I like Detroit to finish ahead of Minnesota is that I like the pieces they have in place on the offensive side of the ball.  Kitna is better than anything the Vikings have at quarterback.  Williams and Johnson would be number one guys on the Minnesota offense.  The Lions have options at running back, although Bell and Jones seem to be the same player.  Not sure why you need 2 of the same thing.  The Lions get a nice start to the season.  Unlike last season, where they opened up against Seattle and Chicago, they open up against the Raiders and Vikings.  I don't see them doing much against the rest of the AFC West or the NFC North.  The Bucs and Cardinals might offer a chance for some victories.  While the offense should be exciting, the defense is still a ways away.  6-10 is a three game improvement over a year ago, and is about as high as I see the Lions going this season.    

Record:  6-10, 3rd Place NFC North, No Playoffs

Minnesota Vikings

Strengths:  The strengths of the Vikings are their run game and their run defense.  The Vikings gave up a little over 61.6 yards per game on the ground, which was good for best in the NFL.  The Ravens were second with 75.9 yards per game.  Pat and Kevin Williams form one of the best defensive tackle tandems in the league.  Chester Taylor's 1,216 yards were a good total, especially seeing that the pass offense ranked 18th in the league.  McKinney and Hutchinson are as good of a left side to an offensive line as there is in the NFL.   Added to this rushing attack is Adrian Peterson, the best running back prospect in the draft.  Had he not been injured last season, he probably would have been a top 3 pick. 

Weaknesses:  As good as the run defense was last year, the pass defense was equally as bad, giving up the most yards passing in the NFL.  So bad was the pass defense of the Vikings, that when Denny Green brought is Arizona squad to Minnesota, he decided that he would bypass the running game, and strictly throw the ball.  In fact, he announced that he would be doing so the week before the game.  The result was a 31-26 win for Minnesota.  However, James had the only 4 rushing attempts for the Cardinals, and rookie Matt Leinart threw 51 times for 405 yards.  Teams passed at will against the Vikings last year.  The Vikings added Mike Doss to this unit.  Chad Greenway, the Vikings first round pick never played a down due to knee injury.  Adding him into the lineup should be a boost.  This pass defense is still a ways away from becoming respectable.  The other weakness for the Vikings is the pass offense.  Brad Johnson is now the backup in Dallas, leaving Jackson and Bollinger.  I don't think the Vikings should have kept Johnson.  The Vikings will not be Super Bowl contenders this year, and it made no sense to keep an old quarterback who had 9 touchdowns last season.  What I find confusing is why the Vikings didn't go after David Carr.  Jackson only played 2 games last year and was impressive in neither.   While that body of work is too small to make a final determination of his NFL status, it seems like a big gamble to not have any proven veteran on the team.  The other problem in the passing game was the wide receiver spot.  No receiver had more than 60 catches, 700 yards, or 5 touchdowns.  Part of that was due to the quarterback position, and part of it was to do with the quality of the receiver position.  The Vikings added Rice in the second round of their draft.  While he should be an upgrade over many of their returning players, it will be hard for him to have a big impact, considering who is throwing him the ball. 

Prediction:  I'm not as sold on this team as other people.  I have been hearing that they will challenge the Packers for second place in the division.  This team went 6-10 last season, after starting the season 2-0.  Only six times last season was this team able to score more than 20 points.  When your pass defense is giving up the most yards in the league, it is a tough combination for success.  While the Vikings have an excellent run defense, part of the reason it was so good is that teams were too busy destroying the pass defense.  Supporters of this team will point to the left side of the line and the running duo of Taylor and Peterson.  I have no doubt that Peterson will be a good running back.  My problem is that they don't play with two footballs. Taylor and Peterson can't run the ball at the same time.  I don't doubt the Vikings will run the ball effectively.  The problem is they did that last year, and still finished 6-10.  Rice is a nice addition, but rookie receivers don't usually have a big impact in their first year, especially when their quarterback is also learning on the job.  You look at the receivers that traditionally make splashes in their rookie years; they usually have veteran quarterbacks.  Marvin Harrison is my favorite example of that.  He is a Hall of Fame wide receiver who put up average numbers his first 3 years in the league.  Two of those seasons were before Manning got there, and the other was Manning's rookie year.  Once Manning became a dominant quarterback, the rest was history.  It is hard for veteran receivers to put up big numbers with poor quarterback play.  For a rookie, it is almost impossible.  The Vikings don't get to capitalize on the Packers traveling to Kansas City and Denver, as they do the same.  Week 3 to Week 10 is brutal.  The schedule is as follows:  at Chiefs, Packers, at Bears, at Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers, and at Packers.  The combined record from last season is 71-41.  That's five playoff teams and the Packers.  December has games against the Broncos, Bears, and 49ers.  That isn't exactly a cupcake month either.  I think people will have different predictions for this team depending on the following:  Is it better to be average in all facets of the game, or dominant in a couple areas and dreadful in others?  I think the Vikings will struggle to capitalize on their strengths, because teams will be too busy exploiting their weaknesses.  Giving up big passing plays and a young quarterback turning the ball over makes it hard to control the clock with a good running game.  The Vikings will probably be a lot like the Packers in 2005, competitive in almost every game, but not good enough to translate into a high victory total.  

Record: 4-12, Last Place NFC North, No Playoffs 

I hope you enjoyed reading the predictions.  Feel free to start ripping me for picking the Packers to do well.  For the last 2 divisions, I have got to read from fans how the Panthers are going to finish 13-3, how the Falcons are without a doubt a playoff team, and how the Eagles will easily win the division, even though McNabb is coming off major knee surgery.  I am confident I will be able to come up with enough to support my position that the Packers have a chance to be the last team in.  With that said, I hope you enjoyed these predictions and I will try to post the NFC West sometime next week.