In these columns, I have taken over as the owner/GM of your NBA franchise. Herein I suggest personnel (player, coach, and management) and coaching changes that will take your franchise to the next level, moving from losing to winning and winning to winning big. I have taken all salary and free agency information from HoopsHype.com, draft information from foxsports.com, and basketball statistics from ESPN.com. Where applicable, I used the trade checker on RealGM.com.
As a current Seattle resident, I feel a compulsion to help out the local team. Back to the lottery after Mr. Sonic Nate McMillan's departure, gameplay obviously needs improvement, necessitating change in player personnel and some coaching additions. An added bonus: I'll even throw in suggestions for the "we want a new arena" drama.
On offense - The Sonics as presently constituted are a very good offensive team: this season their NBA rankings included 2nd in points, 9th in field goal percentage, 10th in 3 point percentage, and 4th in free throw percentage. From a passing perspective, they are below average in the assist and assist/turnover ration categories. They rank 21st in turnovers. The Sonics have solid but unspectacular point guard play; their misfortune is that both Ridnour and Watson are excellent backups, but neither really a starter. Ridnour's assist stats are inflated by accurate-shooting teammates. Ray Allen's passing skills seem to have eroded or been forgotten, leaving this team bereft of any real playmakers. The big men have hands of stone and are even worse at passing than catching.
On defense - ESPN's John Hollinger makes a solid case for this season's Sonics being the worst defensive teams ever in terms of defensive efficiency per possession. They steal the ball at a high rate (6th in the NBA) but have the ball stolen back at a similar clip (20th). Stealing usually involves defensive gambling (good defensive teams like the Bulls, Spurs, and Pistons rank in the bottom half of the league in steals) which in the absence of shotblocking, where the Sonics ranked 25th, results in a clear path to the basket. Nobody gave up more points per game.
What do you do with a team that can shoot the lights out but can't pass or guard their own shadows?
Possible Solutions
Hire a young assistant coach who can relate to the players and get them to buy into the coaching staff. The Sonics have invested another year in Bob Hill, which is good news for Seattle's young big men. Hill might have a tougher time selling his program to the veterans. For his security and the sake of team chemistry (which is always at risk when you lose) Hill should bring in recently retired player with a winning resume to help build the bridge between players and coaches.
Resign Wilcox at a reasonable price. No doubt his agent will want Rashard Lewis money, but an invigorating half-season is no reason to kill your future cap. Wilcox will be a valuable asset, but he'll never be an all-star.
Make a bid for Joel Przybilla. This guy can block shots and rebound. While the Sonics are an okay rebounding team, they need to greatly improve to compensate for their terrible defense. Teamed with Swift, the Sonics would substantially improve interior defense and by reducing the minutes of Fortson, Petro, and Collison, take three of the most foul-prone players in the league off the floor. I recommend Przybilla because they're not going to get Nazr Mohammed or Alonzo Mourning.
Get a new scouting department and get a new GM. Johan Petro? Granted, it wasn't a lottery pick, but the year after drafting a teenage big man, you just can't draft another teen big who wasn't even all that good in his home country. Leave your project foreign guy overseas and let him develop (e.g. half the Argentine national team). In three lottery picks of 2001 and 2003 you get Ridnour, Collison, and Radmanovic? Walker did get Rashard to back off the max a few years ago, but then again, who was going to pay him that kind of cash? Good trades, bad drafts, and poor performance in free agent signings; all signs of GM who can't build a team.
Do something, anything about the way the point guards shoot. Watson needs a little work on shot selection, but is there any reason Ridnour's percentage is so terrible? He's an excellent free throw shooter, but his field goals are poor and his threes are horrendous. He doesn't take an extraordinary amount of threes, but maybe he should take a page out of Tony Parker's book and quit shooting them altogether. Take it to the hole, Luke; work off of screens and hire a shooting coach.
Trade up in the draft to get Lamarcus Aldridge. If it's not possible to trade up, draft Shelden Williams. Everybody but Allen on the roster is completely expendable - even Lewis. He'll probably look to bolt or ask for too much money when he exercises his player option at the end of next season. Actually, just about any of the top big men at the top of the draft will be a marked improvement over their current forwards. Aldridge is the most polished low-post scorer in the draft, a gaping hole in the Sonics' perimeter-based offense. Aldridge's defense and rebounding are not lacking, making him a complete player with all-star potential. Shelden Williams would be a stellar pick at their current 10th spot; he rebounds, blocks shots, and patrols the paint as well as anybody in the draft, plus the guy can score. As an alternative, they might nab the best point guard in the draft, Marcus Williams, who has more potential than Ridnour or Watson. There are tons of capable swingmen in the draft that would be appropriate at the 10th spot where they'll likely be. The drop-off in quality when Lewis or Allen go to the bench is like the Grand Canyon. As for now, the Emerald City has a bunch of 9th and 10th men on their bench, but not a legitimate 6th or 7th (though Ridnour would be a nice7th). In other words, it's hard for the Sonics to really go wrong in this draft, which could be said about only a few teams.
Bonus Section: the Arena Deal
Sonics owner Howard Schultz has gone about the Key Arena renovations completely wrong. You can't complain about your arena deal when your team is terrible with slim prospects for improvement (unless they follow my plans), especially when you're a billionaire employing millionaires who play a child's game. Promoting the fact that the Mariners and Seahawks got new arenas with lucrative deals reminds the state and local government how much they infuriated the public by doing so and of the huge amount of money they've just laid out in the past half-decade. And bullying the already over-taxing city of Seattle while they're about to close several public schools to save money is asinine.
Nevertheless, the Sonics, unlike the Knicks, are in business to make money. Instead of just threatening to leave Seattle, plan to leave Seattle. The metro area - Everett, Issaquah, Bellevue - would likely welcome you with open arms, and you wouldn't have to change the name; ever hear of the Auburn Hills Pistons or New Jersey Jets and Giants? If you stay in the area, you don't have to pay the exorbitant relocation fees assessed by the NBA. Moving out to the periphery and maybe even striking a deal for a privately financed arena would have many advantages. First, you don't have to deal with all of the nonsense of being in a congested and overtaxed city. King County's East Side has a strong corporate presence and would love to rub in Seattle's face that they had an NBA team. A new arena could be built to your specifications and be a new gathering place for East Side events.
Whether or not the Sonics move, they should make the games more of a party atmosphere. While Squatch running around flanked by scantily-clad women is entertaining, better promotions will get butts in seats and help some of the money issues. Letting in fans free for painting faces, dollar seat nights, and focusing the event on the fans has helped the Mavericks fill nightly a once-empty arena. Sometimes you just need to get fans in a couple times for discount and then they'll be willing to pay more for quality entertainment.
If nothing else, the Sonics having plans in hand to move might just compel Seattle try harder to keep them. But for now, the Sonics can less afford the negative feelings about griping about a bad arena deal than they can to live with that deal a few more years.
Conclusion
With no defensive stoppers available in free agency or the draft at the position they're picking, the Sonics can either hope to sucker a team into a bad trade or just play smarter and work harder on defense. The free agents after next season are much better, as is the draft, so they should not mortgage the future for a slightly better present. Nor am I suggesting they tank so they can draft Greg Oden. The best thing the Sonics can do is learn to play more intelligently, play defense with pride, and save their resources for the 2007 offseason. Leaving Seattle for the hinterland could reinvigorate the team financially. In the meantime, make sure the players on the court are people the fans like and will pay to watch. Management should make themselves invisible, make a stronger effort to have the games be more fun for the fans, and bring in smarter people to put a quality product on the floor.
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