You're thinking this is premature, and you're right, but I've got a lot of time on my hands and an Internet connection at home combined with NBA season withdrawals; this blog is a result.  I'm calling a Bulls-Spurs final with the Spurs narrowly edging the youngsters due to more big-game experience.

Here is why the Bulls will win the East:

Detroit is taking a big step back.  The issue isn't just the play of Big Ben replaced by the play of Mohammed; it's what Wallace's departure will get the other players thinking.  Billups is in the last year of his contract, so he'll want to play in such a way that gets him paid in his last opportunity to get a big deal - this may lead him to play something other than team basketball.  Without the primary enforcer and motivator around, who keeps an eye on Rasheed?  Saunders is a smart coach, but not the culture-creating iconoclast that wins championships.  Other than Rudy T and maybe Chuck Daly, can you name an NBA coach who's won a championship that doesn't have an overwhelming presence in the locker room?  Larry Brown is a diva, but he gave the team the edge they needed to win it all despite not having a star who could consistently take over games.  Add to that Dumars gave away potential future building-blocks in trading Darko and Maurice Evans.  The Pistons are still very skilled and very experienced, but they now lack the toughness and togetherness that gave them the razor's edge advantage over all of their opponents.

The Heat are a one-hit wonder

I'll start with the counter-argument on behalf of Wade & Co.  Dwyane Wade is just going to get better.  Lest we forget, His Airness began his career as a pathetic outside shooter previous to his becoming the record-holder for threes made in the playoffs, and there's no reason for us to believe someone as driven and gifted as Wade won't adopt new skills.  Miami can count on a weakened Detroit and other than the Bulls, a conference bereft of worthy opponents.  Like this year, whoever comes out of the East can anticipate an opponent that has expended tremendous energy just to escape the West playoffs.

So much is stacked against the South Floridians.  Repeating a title run is difficult in any sport, but especially in the unique era of NBA parity.  Miami won the title in large part because Dallas had been bloodied by the Spurs and Suns, evidenced by Jason Terry's legs not being in his shots (do you really think he couldn't score on that perimeter D?) and Dirk too tired to go to the hole.  Pat Riley should send gift baskets to Poppovich and D'Antoni.  After such a cathartic victory, how hungry will Riley and his 15 Strong be?  Shaq will be a year creakier as will Payton and Mourning.  Williams, Haslem and Posey are playing at their peak.  While Wade has established himself as one of the game's premier crunch-time performers, what happens if he rolls his ankle, not for the first time?  And Mourning isn't even a lock to come back.  Remember that this "warrior" back-stabbed both the Nets and Raptors, so apparently losing a kidney hasn't diminished his love of the dollar.  Now that they've proven themselves, it remains to be seen if this group with several players with character issues will hold it together for a title run.  Ask the 2004 Lakers: a team with three stars years past their prime with a top-notch two-guard will still be dangerous, but not quite fit for the title.

The East is Still Least

Cleveland will be marginally better, as will New Jersey, but unless LeBron becomes MJ and Krstic becomes Duncan, we can comfortably ignore the Nets and Cavs come conference finals time. 

Regarding New Jersey, Jason Kidd is still awesome even a bit slower, and he'll be better rested now that Marcus Williams is on board.  Hopefully Williams will have more thefts on the court than off.  Vince Carter is the David Robinson of guards: Hall of Fame numbers, but not the guy who wins playoff games for you.  East coast whiners complain of a lack of respect for Jefferson, but they should complain of his lack of jump shot and lack of delivering in big games.  Krstic, like all Euros, plays no defense, so considering the last champion that won without excellent post play was nobody, cancel the parade through town.

Many NBA followers, especially the media, would love for LeBron to be the next Jordan, leading his previously destitute team to glory.  But the bad news for James fans is that his opponents score like Paris Hilton at a frat house; MJ took it as a personal offense when his opposition succeeded.  Sadly, ferocity generally isn't a characteristic you go out and get.  Big Z has nowhere to go but down.  Damon Jones now has to endure the cruel world known to slow-footed perimeter chuckers who don't have the benefit of double-teams on Duncan/O'Neals/Stoudemire or draw and kick guys like Nash.  The Cavs need three things: a savvy point guard, a shooter who can create his own shot, and a sadistic coach.  Eric Snow was the right guy for the PG job six years ago, but now they need a newer model.  Why not make a play for Brevin Knight?  Shannon Brown may actually the shooter/scorer they need.  As talented as Mike Brown is, he hasn't convinced the team to play the kind of defense he was schooled in under Carlisle and Poppovich.  It doesn't take that long for the right coach to get his team at least on the right path - Exhibit A is Avery Johnson and the previously defensively-defunct Mavs.  Defense is mostly an issue of effort, which effort is shaped by the coach rewarding and punishing play.  LBJ could be the league's premier defender, given his physical skills and instincts, but he has to be shown the way.

Everybody else is completely doomed.  Paul Pierce excluded, the Celtics are a playground team.  Artest flushed a beautiful thing in Indy down the toilet and they won't recover.  The Bobcats and Knicks might make the Elite Eight in March Madness.  Milwaukee is three players and a coaching staff away from contending.  Basically, it's the Heat and Bulls with the rest in the dust.

The Bulls are Actually That Good

In 2005-06 Chicago led the league in field goal percentage defense and was fourth in defensive rebounding.  Whereas they were weak in shot-blocking, they bring in four-time Defensive POY and swat king Ben Wallace as well as defensive dynamo Tyrus Thomas.  If TT has half the offensive game he claims to have not used due to the system at LSU, he'll win Rookie of the Year handily.  With those two and P.J. Brown down low they'll have more possessions, which they'll need not being the most offensively-efficient team quite yet.  Hinrich and Gordon already provide reliable scoring, but if Deng, Smith, and Thomas progress as hoped, their scoring woes will disappear.  Skiles will keep this team prepared for opponents and has already progressed as an in-game decision maker.  He'll find a way to channel the energy of the guys who are coming up for contract extensions into feisty team play.  These guys are actually a lot like the '99 Spurs but without the same amount of veteran leadership.  If this isn't their year to come out of the East, then wait one more; it will come.

How the West Will Be Won by the Spurs

The Suns Still Don't Have a Bench

Phoenix ended the season with many questions, many of which were answered negatively in the off-season.  The biggest is how well does Amare come back; is he Penny Hardaway or Antonio McDyess?  Both were fantastic players who were never the same, not even when healthy.  Jason Kidd has come back nicely, but his injury wasn't as severe and he still dropped a notch in his game.  Even at the top of his game, Amare couldn't guard his own shadow and didn't rebound that well for someone of his size and athleticism.  Healthy or not, Stoudemire is still only one player and will not compensate for the Suns' biggest problem, that being the lack of depth.  No offense to Barbosa, but every time Steve Nash was lying down on the sidelines, everybody watching cringed just a little.  Though he shouldn't have won either MVP award, so much of what the Suns do relies on Nash's awesome decision-making, and when he leaves the floor most of the team's basketball IQ goes with him.  Nash winning the MVP is a lot like a DH or closer winning the MVP in baseball: obviously he's excellent in one dimension of the game, but doesn't every part of the game matter? 

The sad thing is they had opportunities to address depth problems with two first-rounders, but they gave the picks away.  And what have they done in free-agency?  They bring in another shooter, already their greatest strength, rather than bring in somebody who could defend, rebound, block shots, or pass.  In addition, their value was artificially inflated by the play of Tim Thomas, who was playing hard for the first time in a decade so he could get a new contract.  Having Kurt Thomas and Amare back will help, but Diaw's effectiveness will be lessened.  Speaking of Amare, has anyone of that size, skill, and athleticism been a poorer rebounder?  Who will hit big shots when Nash inevitably wears out?  The answer, as it has been for three years, is nobody.  That along with an open contempt for defense will doom the Suns in second or third play out west yet another year.

Mavericks will take a few steps forward, a few steps back

No sane basketball observer will say that Dallas won't be right in the mix to win the West and even the whole thing.  But lest we forget, Cuban and Co were one brain-dead foul by Manu Ginobili from watching the rest of the playoffs from home.  As far as advantages of next year over this one, they'll have another year of tutelage from Avery Johnson as well as experience for the coach, which will help especially in late-game and playoff situations, a significant reason Pat Riley's squad won.  Cuban has seen the wisdom of keeping a core group together, so they'll be even tighter as a unit.

However, a few questions linger regarding to how well Dallas can do this year compared to the last.  This last year, Jason Terry was playing for a contract; will he be Ray Allen and submit an even better year after his monster deal or will he be Eddy Curry and phone it in now that he's gotten all the dollars he needs?  If you don't think that's a legitimate question, ask the teams that have/had Tim Thomas, Curry, Ike Austin, Stephen Jackson, Steve Francis, etc.  Perhaps the more significant concern is that nearly all of the Mavericks' players are playing at their peak or just beyond.  Other than Devin Harris and maybe Josh Howard and Diop, these guys have hit their ceiling.  Stackhouse is probably going to be worse as more injuries and physical restraints come with his age.  How much better can Dirk get?  Will the defensively-challenged Croshere actually get minutes on Avery's squad?  Dirk and the gang will be right back in it, but the track record of teams that lose in the Finals over the last few decades is less than an encouraging sign for their title hopes.

Yes, You Can Count Out Everybody but the Mavs, Spurs, and Suns

Who you got, the Warriors?  They'll most probably be even worse than last year.  Memphis can't win a playoff game, which will change if Gay becomes a star, but who will play point?  The Clippers are up-and-coming, but lack the seasoning.  Same with Utah.  With all of the long-term contracts on the Kings, they've pretty much cemented their slightly-above-mediocre status for years.  I'm better than the Nuggets' guards and other than Carmelo, their frontcourt is a reliable as election results in the Soviet Union.    

Delusional Lakers fans: you aren't getting Garnett unless you give up Kobe.  People who talk about Lamar Odom's potential: thank you for the comedy.  What does he have to do to convince you he's never going to get it?  Show up year after year without spending a minute in the weight room over the summer?  Not develop reliable post moves?  Display incompetent defense?  Get called obscene names by his own coach?  The Lakers' bench would be a middle-of-the-pack WNBA team.  Good luck, Farmar.

That the Rockets are not championship material is a sure sign of bad GM work.  They have two pieces most teams would kill to have: an increasingly dominant center and a top-five player on the perimeter.  McGrady is even a premier playoff performer.  It is a crime that Houston is not on par with the other Texas teams, but with a supporting cast worse than a Vin Diesel movie, these guys are doomed.

Everybody else is too doomed to mention.

The Spurs Will Bounce Back

It's just their way.  They can't win two rings in a row.  They weren't too far off this year - as I mentioned earlier, they were one play from advancing to the conference finals where they would have dispatched the Suns (who nearly lost to the Lakers.  The Lakers!)  San Antonio matches up better with Miami than Dallas: Josh Howard isn't exactly Bruce Bowen guarding Wade (who serves up a brickfest every time in that matchup) and Duncan is one of the game's premier low-post scorers, something Dallas has in minimal supply.

These guys are flat-out winners.  They play suffocating and clutch defense, have three reliable big-time scoring options, and clutch shooting and playmaking.  Does anyone think Parker won't get even better after doing so his whole career?  He just turned 24.  Ginobili and Duncan were both slowed by injuries, but both figure to be healthy.  We should also take into account this will be the first summer in a long time that no Spur will be obligated to play for a national team, a problem in years past as far as contributing to fatigue.  Since they lost in the second round, the Spurs had even more time to rest this year. 

Don't forget that the Spurs have one of the league's best coaching staffs and the best player personnel department.  San Antonio's leadership will make the correct adjustments to diminish previous weaknesses and mistakes, which aren't that numerous to begin with.  Already a top-notch team just a razor's edge worse than the Mavs this year, Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili all are due better seasons than the last.  With more mobility in the game plan and another year for Finley to adjust to his role, you can expect the Spurs to be even stronger, smarter, and better-rested.

Why San Antonio Will Beat Chicago

My proposed finals would be a bloody battle, but one won by the more experienced and savvy team.  The big-game experience of Duncan and crew would dwarf the upstart Bulls.  I envision these finals a lot like the '95 finals, the Bulls playing the role of the Orlando Magic as the young/athletic team with all the potential in the world being outclassed by the smarter/experienced team led by a world-class big man in the Spurs playing the Houston Rockets part.  I honestly believe that this Bulls team will win a championship or a few in the near future, but not before one last hurrah from Team Duncan.

In these columns, I have taken over as the owner/GM of your NBA franchise.  Herein I suggest personnel (player, coach, and management) and coaching changes that will take your franchise to the next level, moving from losing to winning and winning to winning big.  I have taken all salary and free agency information from HoopsHype.com, draft information from foxsports.com, and basketball statistics from ESPN.com.  Where applicable, I used the trade checker on RealGM.com.

I'll be as generous as possible in describing this team: they are a pathetic abomination.  Record-wise, they were worst in the NBA this season.  Statistically speaking, they were even worse - dead last in points, point differential, 3point defense, free throw percentage, rebounding percentage, opponent's offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, and total rebounds.  In every other statistical category, they were average or usually much worse. 

Zack Randolph and Darius Miles both expressed desires to play elsewhere.  Owner Paul Allen is finally realizing what a colossal waste of money his expenditures have been heavily investing in unworthy players (isn't Shawn Kemp still on their payroll?) and has relinquished ownership of the arena so he doesn't have to pay the penalties for the losses (that's money he needs to buy the rest of the Pacific Northwest.   Ask me some time about his damn streetcar he wants Seattle to build for him.)  They fired a sub-par GM with no apparent successor.  Nate McMillan coaching this team bereft of talent is like Francis Ford Coppola directing the Jackass sequel.  Portland fans, once the most loyal and loudest in the NBA for many years, have left, alienated by the bumbling management of their once-beloved team.  How do you fix a team with no GM and the owner and players looking to hit the eject button?

Solutions

Follow the Nuggets' pattern.  This pattern can be boiled down to a few parts: trade everybody who makes more than the coach and get draft picks, followed by signing reasonably-priced free agents.  In the Blazers' case, trade everybody who makes more than the assistant coaches (Nate is well-paid) except Randolph - I'll make the case for my exception later.  The Blazers have no money this summer for free agents - you have no idea what a good thing this is.  They shouldn't use the mid-level exception either, especially since it probably puts them into luxury-tax territory.  But in summer 2007 they become players in free agency as far as the cap is concerned, so they must not only make moves to not stifle that, but to enhance that.  The Blazers would be wise to read on.

Do like the Raptors and shove a pile of money in front of a proven GM.  Stealing Bryan Colangelo was a fantastic move for the Canadians.  The only GMs I'd open the vault for are R.C. Buford, Joe Dumars, Rod Thorn, Jerry West, and Geoff Petrie.  Dumars is a Piston for life or until the owner decides he hates winning and his fans and fires him.  Buford is leading a relatively pressure-free life out of the spotlight with a perennial championship contender with arguably the best player and coach in the league.  Jerry West is about to sail off into the sunset with his gazillion trophies and there's ample evidence he's lost it a little bit.  That leaves the Blazers with Petrie and Thorn.  Both have limited resources to work with but both took terrible teams to conference finals.  Neither GM has historical or familial ties to their respective teams.  And who the hell wants to work out of Sacramento or New Jersey?  See if either one is attainable.  If not, hire a disciple of one of the guys listed above.  If Kevin Pritchard was the guy, why haven't they hired him?  Is his handling of the draft a final exam? 

Get rid of Darius Miles and Travis Outlaw.  "Addition by subtraction" comes to mind.  Assuming these guys aren't in jail, trade them as soon as possible.  Are you still waiting for Miles to blossom?  How about his six years in the league with his rebounding average declining every year of his career?  Perhaps you're impressed by his career shooting percentages from three-point line (16.8%) or the free throw line (58.6%)?  Maybe you dig his high turnover rate and low assist and rebounding numbers.  What do you call the #3 overall pick in the draft who can't shoot, can't pass, can't defend, can't rebound, and is a black hole of good feelings on his team?  Hint: it starts with "B" and ends with "ust".  I don't even want to list Outlaw's stats lest he find out where I live.

To solve this problem, Portland must capitalize on the stupidity of other teams; in this case, I'll use the Knicks, the dumbest team in the NBA.  It's almost too easy, especially given Isaiah's alleged coveting of Miles.  Given that Isaiah loves big men and loves Miles, I've concocted a megatrade that will give him what he wants and for the Blazers clears cap space and brings in players the fans will love.  Portland sends Theo Ratliff, Darius Miles, Travis Outlaw, and Brian Skinner for Jalen Rose, Malik Rose, and Nate Robinson.  Here's why Portland makes this trade:

Ratliff: He's finished.  As a former owner of Theo in fantasyland, I can attest his game is blocking shots and some rebounds with pretty much nothing else.  His shot-blocking attempts often come at the expense of proper rebounding position, thus reducing his defensive impact.  Miles and Outlaw: Bad seeds and in the case of Miles, vastly overrated potential.  If references to leaping ability were MVP votes, Miles would have matched Jordan by now.  But he plays basketball, which unfortunately for him includes elements other than trying to dunk.  Skinner: Completely replaceable game and he'll want bigger dollars when his contract is up.   Jalen Rose: He might as well change his name to "Cap Space."  Jalen gives you some versatility position-wise and he wears great suits.  Malik Rose: Malik is a very good defender who can guard several positions.  He's a little overpaid, but his work ethic, energy, and professionalism will have a positive impact on teammates and endear him to fans.  Nate Robinson:  You bring him in to change the pace of the game and keep defenses guessing.  However, the real reason you bring him in: he will put butts in seats.  He won the dunk contest and he already has a following in the Pacific Northwest, so he will bring in desperately needed dollars.  Factor in that he's on his rookie contract, he's not making much money on a short deal, Robinson is a small risk to take.

If the megatrade doesn't work out, just offer Miles for Malik Rose and Nate Robinson.  Malik brings championship experience and would instantly become one of the team's better free throw shooters while Robinson brings flair and excitement to an otherwise dead Rose Garden.

Let Voshon Lenard go.  Resign Przybilla, but don't go nuts.  Lenard has apparently employs the trainer hired by Marcus Camby, Ken Griffey Jr., and Fred Taylor.  At this point all he brings is his waning three-point shot and a guarantee he'll miss a good chunk of the season.  Przybilla is a good defender with excellent per 40 minute numbers in rebounding and shotblocking, but he's not one you open the vault for.  He's a terrible free-throw shooter but at least has good shot selection on the floor at 54.8%.  But he seems to have hired Lenard's trainer too: six years into the league and he has yet to play more than 76 games, appearing in 58% of a possible 492 games.  Big men tend to get overpaid (Kwame Brown, Rasho Nesterovic, Jerome James - hell, even Macej Lampe) so the Blazers must be careful not to jeopardize the future for a guy they can't build a team around.

Bring in John Lucas.  This is one addition to the coaching staff I would open the wallet big-time for.  Not only does half the league train with him in Houston in the offseason, he has revolutionized rehabilitation in the NBA.  He helps players overcome physical ailments, but Lucas has a gift in helping people heal emotionally and psychologically.  Steve Francis was an All-Star starter under John's tutelage whereas now he is an overpaid pariah.  The main reason I bring Lucas in is to mentor Zach Randolph, not just because he's pretty much untradeable, but because I seriously believe Randolph can be a star in this league.  He's nearly a 20-10 guy and he has flashes of dominance, first evidenced by the way he destroyed the competition during summer league as a rookie and sophomore.  Zach is a troubled man and with the guidance of Lucas in things basketball and life, he would be an all-star.  Lucas would be a nice counter to McMillan's hard-driving personality, giving the players someone on the coaching staff who could act as a sounding board.  Hiring a big-man specialist like Patrick Ewing or Hakeem Olajuwon would be beneficial, but John Lucas would have a therapeutic effect on that fractured team.

Regarding Martell Webster: get him lifting weights, play him in the summer leagues as the #1 option on offense, and tell him to go to the hole.  I am a big fan of Webster.  Still young, he needs meat on those bones, probably fifteen pounds or so.  While admittedly is was in less than 20 minutes per game, he only took 71 free throws last year, a waste for a guy so athletic and who shoots at 86% from the charity stripe.  Go to the hole, Martell.  With some experience in the summer leagues being The Guy, that confidence can translate to the regular season.  Webster starting getting pretty good over the course of the season - check his pre- and post- All-Star numbers and his per 48 minute numbers.  Within a few years, he'll more than justify his high draft pick.

If you can, draft Lamarcus Aldridge or Brandon Roy.  If you can't, settle for Adam Morrison.  More than anything, Portland should draft somebody the alpha player from a program that wins big.  All three of my recommendations come from schools that have had some success in the NCAAs and have won their conferences.  Experienced players from winning environments do all they can to win.  I'll use the Chicago Bulls as a template: drafting the two high-schoolers Chandler and Curry, the Bulls floundered and now Chandler comes off the bench and Curry is a Knick; they bring in Hinrich (Kansas), Deng (Duke), Gordon (UConn), Duhon (Duke), and Nocioni (gold-medal winning Argentina national team).  With tons of cap room and loads of young, talented, and winning-oriented players, the Bulls are already a playoff team with a very bright future.  In the meantime, the Blazers have drafted three high-schoolers and brought in/resigned grossly overpriced players with no leadership skills (Ratliff, Miles).  Start stocking up on winners.  Roy is probably the most complete player in the draft and is a McMillan-type of player.  He would bring size to that small backcourt and could even play some point.  Morrison will bring some much-needed offense and would put butts in seats; both Morrison and Roy already have a following in the region.  Aldridge would bring low-post and mid-range offense and plenty of rebounding with solid defense.

Conclusion

There isn't one move or even a couple moves that will make the Blazers a playoff team in the next couple years, so they have to accomplish three things: get rid of the losers, bring in players who play to win, and bring back the fans by putting on the court hardworking guys who are respectful and fun.  To do this, they must shed albatross contracts and personalities (Ratliff, Miles, Outlaw) and make every move with an eye toward winning and flexibility.