Ohio State Title Contender

Key Games: @ USC-9/13-W, @ Wis-10/04-L, @ Mich St.-10/18-L, @ Illinois-11/15-W, vs.Michigan-11/22-W

Upset Alert: @ Northwestern-11/08; Now I in no way think the Wildcats will actually pull of an upset of the Buckeyes, but it is most certainly a set up game with vengeance against Illinois, and their bitter rival Michigan on the horizon.

Why They Can: The Buckeyes return 19 (of 22) starters from last season's BCS championship game runner-up team roster. How did they get there? Defense. The Buckeyes' D ranked 1st in the nation in pass defense, scoring defense, and total defense, while ranking 3rd in rush defense. Even further, they were 8th in the nation in tackles for a loss, 6th in sacks, and 14th in 3rd down conversion defense. The best news that Buckeye fans received in the off season was that Middle Linebacker and anchor of their vaunted defense, James Laurinaitis would return for a senior season. Now defense is not the only thing Ohio State has to boast-on the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes have a solid backfield of QB Todd Boeckman, and Chris "Beanie" (more like "Freight Train") Wells. Wells was the 11th leading rusher in the nation last season as a sophomore, and Boeckman was 13th in the nation in pass efficiency. With defense, and efficient QB, and a Heisman Candidate RB, the obvious foundation for a national title run is set.

Why They May Not: Now it's hard to say a team coming off a national title game appearance is "off the radar," but I don't think many people regarded the 2007 Buckeyes as a threat to win it all. After all they had lost QB Troy Smith, and were replacing him with an unproven guy in Boeckman, Ted Ginn Jr, the number one receiver and return man was gone, and their running back was just a sophomore. This year, the Buckeyes will face a different approach from opponents-they will get everyone's best shot, and Wells is a secret weapon no longer. The reason they "may not" three-peat as participants in the BCS title game this year, is Todd Boeckman. See, he will be forced to throw...teams will choose to let him beat them. Last year, Wells was held under 100 yards rushing against Purdue and Illinois...Boeckman threw 3 INT's in each of those contests...a sign of things to come?

What Will Happen: Ohio State WILL beat USC...yes it is on the road, but I guarantee you the Buckeyes are probably tired of hearing how USC would have fared better than Ohio State in the title game the last two years. While that may be true, I do not think the Trojans are the better team THIS year, nor do I think they will survive the opening 5 games of their season without a blemish. After the SC game though, things get sticky-Wisconsin matches up well with Ohio State. They have the perfect recipe-run game, 8 men to stack in the box, and a slow, grind-it-out style-to beat the Buckeyes. Plus, Ohio State has typically had a rough time in Madison. Last time they met there, the Badgers won 17-10, and in 2002, it took a 4th quarter TD pass to prevent the Buckeyes from blowing a National Title run. This year, Ohio State switches places with the Sooners...The Buckeyes get the Big 10 BCS berth, but they're smelling roses and a rematch with the Trojans, no Sunshine and Oranges.

Heisman Candidate: Chris "Beanie" Wells

Wisconsin

Key Games: @ Mich-9/27-L, vs. Ohio St.-10/04-W, vs. Penn State-10/11-L, @ Iowa-10/18-L, @ Mich St-11/01-W

Upset Alert: @ Fresno St-09/13-L; You heard it here first, there is a whole lotta magic in Fresno, CA right now, and it will continue with the Bulldogs' football team in 2008...more on them later!

Why They Can: The Badgers have a style, and they own it well. The Badgers were the best in the nation in time of possession, keeping the ball for an average of 33 minutes and 44 seconds per game. They are able to do this with a solid running game, anchored by P.J. Hill-Hill was on Heisman pace before being injured last season and missing 2 of the last 3 games. Still, Hill ran for more than 1,200 yards and was 23rd in the nation in rushing. The Badgers also feature a defense that should be much improved, and now more experienced. The starting defense features 5 seniors and 3 juniors, with 7 of those in the front 8. With Beanie Wells and Rich Rodriguez' offensive scheme on the schedule, that will serve as a strength for the Badgers.

Why They May Not: The Badgers will be inserting a new starting quarterback in 2008. As of now Allan Evridge is atop the depth chart, set to fill the void left by Tyler Donovan. One of Donovan's knocks was that he made poor decisions and turned the ball over too much (Wisconsin was 70th in turnover margin last year), but Evridge may not be much better, and he definitely lacks experience. Evridge last got significant playing time in 2005, and in that time he only managed a completion percentage of 47.9% and threw 6 TDs against 7 INTs. Additionally, the Badgers just flat out have been overrated. They ranked 46th in total offense, 38th in total defense, and 91st in the nation in sacks allowed per game. Add all that together with the contingency that P.J Hill stays healthy all season, and a BCS berth seems unlikely.

What Will Happen: Wisconsin played very well against Ohio State last season in Columbus...the 38-17 final score did not do them justice. The Badgers led 17-10 deep into the third quarter, then the Buckeyes broke it open with 28 unanswered. Why mention? Well the Badgers host the defending Big 10 champs for the first time since 2003....a game the Badgers won....17-10. Also, they expect to have the services of P.J. Hill this year, a luxury they did not have in last season's showdown. That, and their stacked front 8 against Wells, is a recipe for a Badger victory. Like 2003 however, the Ohio State upset will be the feather in the cap for the season, as I expect another 4 loss season for the Badgers. If P.J. Hill gets hurt...it could be worse. I don't expect this Badger team to earn a BCS berth.

Heisman Candidate: P.J. Hill

Michigan State

Key Games: @ Cal-8/30-W, vs. Notre Dame-9/20-W, vs. Ohio St.-10/18-W, @ Mich-10/25-L, vs. Wis-11/01-L, @ Penn St.-11/22-L

Upset Alert: @ Indiana-W-Looking down the schedule, teams do not usually look twice at Indiana, but with Kellen Lewis under center, they can match scores with the Spartans, plus they will be a little hyped up after losing to State 52-27 last year in Lansing.

Why They Can: People may look at the Spartans' overall and conference record (7-6, 3-5 in Big 10) and think it is preposterous to include them in this discussion. To those I say, consider this:  The Spartans lost their 6 games, ALL by 7 points or less, in fact they lost by an average of just over 6 points per game. Four of those losses came away from Lansing, four were against teams ranked in the top-15 by an average of 4.25 points per game, and the other two losses were in overtime. This year, the Spartans get Ohio State and Wisconsin in Lansing, and I believe they can take one of those.

Why They May Not: While Michigan State has the top tier Big 10 teams at home this year, they do have some road games that can put a damper on hopes for the BCS--@ Michigan, which late in the season will certainly be a tough one; @ Penn State, which could be the team the Spartans are battling for positioning and Bowl berths out of the Big 10; and @ Cal, where it is always tough for a road team to win. Michigan State was only 2-4 away from home last year, so that will have to change for them to contend as they should. The Spartans will also need to improve their pass defense, which ranked 44th in the nation last year. They cannot have games like the Northwestern shootout, when they allowed CJ Bacher to throw for over 500 yards and 5 TDs if they want to succeed.

What Will Happen: The Spartans had a lot to build off of from last year; the loss of wide receiver Devin Thomas will affect the passing game a bit, but that's the nature of college football, look for someone to step in and fill that void-keep an eye out for T.J. Williams. Overall, I think the Spartans have a schedule that favors them being this year's version of Zook's Fighting Illini...especially since an adjustment period is expected in Ann Arbor. I look for the Spartans to make some noise, taking care of business against the lesser teams in-conference, and giving the top tier teams plenty of trouble. I predict a 3-loss season for Michigan State, but unfortunately for them, I do not expect Ohio State to return to the National Championship game...which means only one team from the Big 10.

Heisman Candidate: None

So far, in my multi-part preview, we have Clemson of the ACC, Pittsburgh of the Big East, and now Ohio State of the Big 10 taking up BCS bowl slots. That leaves room for 7 more! 3 more conferences to go, plus the non-BCS conference contenders...My next breakdown will be of the stacked Big 12...