The NFL Playoffs, Round 1: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results

How else should one of the craziest NFL seasons in recent memory conclude than with three Week 17 match-ups that end up as rematches in Round 1 of the playoffs? And the thing that makes the least sense--and therefore will probably happen--for all three Week 17 losers to turn around and win in Round 1. Considering how last year went (three teams with worse records winning in Round 1 and the Cardinals--one of the most inconsistent teams of all time--advancing to the Super Bowl) in the NFL the financial mantra holds true: Past performance is not indicative of future results.

So pay no attention to what happened last week. This trend will continue into next week as we assess the Colts and Saints, neither of whom

When I made my NFC and AFC predictions this year, I added a little blurb at the end of each that began, “Wouldn’t surprise me if.” This was followed by things that would be unexpected but really wouldn’t surprise me based on my predictions. Below is a review of the good, the sort-of-good, and the ugly, concerning my 2009 predictions.

Introducing…the Amazing Kreskin!

I nailed all four AFC division champions (including my out-of-nowhere pick of the Cincinnati Bengals going 10-6 and winning the division) as well as the Saints going from worst to first in the NFC South.

Wouldn't surprise me if: Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman sees the field by Week 6 (either because Byron Leftwich can't go or is ineffective).
I was off by one week (but Leftwich had been replaced by

We began this NFL season looking forward to Tom Brady’s triumphant return from injury, Kyle Orton’s certain failure in Denver, Jay Cutler’s rise to stardom in Chicago, Michael Vick’s game-changing return to the NFL, and Brett Favre’s triumphant arrival in Minnesota. We end the season wondering why the Colts laid down like dogs when they could have improved to 15-0, if the Saints are following the 2007 Patriots’ formula for peaking at the wrong time, if the AFC can ignore all the tiebreakers and simply send 4 teams to the playoffs instead of 6, and if Brett Favre’s third straight team will limp to an agonizing finish.

It’s been a crazy NFL season. How crazy? I’ll provide some stats and info with some of my selections for Week 17 below.

With Apologies to Clement C. Moore...

'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house

Not a creature was stirring, not even the Lions, who don’t have a chance against SAN FRANCISCO (-12)

The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,

In hopes that St. Nicholas soon would be there;

The children were nestled all snug in their beds,

While visions of a Washington (+7) upset over Dallas danced in their heads;

And mamma in her 'kerchief, and I in my cap,

Had just settled down for a long winter's nap—kind of like the nap Browns head coach Eric Mangini has been in all season (Oakland (+3)),

When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,

I sprang from the bed to see whether ATLANTA (-9) beating Buffalo would really matter.

Away to the window I flew like a flash,

Tore open the shutters

After starting the season 12 games over .500 after 7 weeks, I have not had a winning week since. I’m in danger of my 5th straight losing season picking games against the spread after finishing over .500 in four out of five years. I need to go 31-17 over the final three weeks to finish over .500. That means it’s time to go game by game once more.

Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
So far this season I am 0-6 picking Thursday night games. I went 2-for-2 on the two afternoon Thanksgiving games, but once darkness descends, I can no longer pick the Thursday outcome correctly. Two weeks ago I went opposite of what I thought. It still didn’t work. So this week I’m going double opposite. I think Jacksonville will pull the upset. So I should go with the Colts.

A few weeks ago I rolled out the first-ever Sports in a Can NFL Rankings. For a complete explanation on how it works and the rankings after Week 6, click here.

If you just want to dive in to the latest set of rankings, here’s all you need to know: because one play can sometimes decide whether a team wins or loses, a close win or loss factors into each team’s ranking:

a win by 9+ points is worth 3 points
a win by 1-8 points is worth 2 points
a loss by 1-8 points is worth 1 point
a loss by 9+ points is worth 0 points

Any ties were broken by looking a little more in depth at the team’s slate of games to date. Other than that, the numbers speak for themselves.

Without further ado, here is the latest installment of the Sports in a Can NFL Rankings (the number in parentheses is the

After an unprecedented three straight weeks with six teams on a bye (giving us just 13 games per weekend), the NFL is finally at near-full strength this week, with only the Giants and Texans getting the week off. Next week the full slate of 16 games returns. So with the byes officially over after this week and my prognosticating skills severely diminished after a solid run to start the season, it's time to take a look at each game in detail this week.

Thursday Night Football

Chicago at San Francisco
Thursday Night Football is back--because with the byes mercifully almost over the NFL has a new way to mess up picking games as well as Fantasy Football rosters: Thursday Night Football. The Bears lost at Cincinnati 45-10 and to Arizona at home 41-21. The 49ers have lost four straight and five

With the first set of BCS rankings released this week and more NFL Power Polls than you can shake a remote at available on the Internet, Sports in a Can has decided to get into the action. Welcome to the inaugural Sports in a Can NFL Rankings.

First, let's explain how the list came to be. I was trying to decide how good the Broncos are. They are 6-0 but the image of their opening week win--which only came to be because of one of the flukiest plays in NFL history--still gnaws at me every time I consider how good they are. That game clearly could have gone either way if you think about it. And really any NFL game decided by 8 points or less is one play away from going the other way.

That led to my realization that every team really has three sets of win totals: 1. their actual number of wins;

Last year I presented the official Sports in a Can list of the Worst-Run Organizations in Sports. It's time to see where the teams stack up one year later.

With the Arizona Cardinals improbably making a run to the Super Bowl last year, I have moved them off the list (they were #5 last year). But their .373 winning percentage since 1999 and a history of repeated failure could land them right back where they've always been next year. And last year I noted that the Tampa Bay Rays made the leap off the list by advancing to the World Series. But their trade of pitcher Scott Kazmir (a noted Red Sox and Yankees killer) when the team was just 4½ games out of the Wild Card almost put them back on the list.

Beyond the Cardinals and Rays, there are plenty of bad organizations out there deserving