“You don't sleep after a loss like this and you throw up in your mouth a couple of times, which is what I did last night.” - Bill Parcells, 1997
That’s how I felt Sunday night.
But ever since the Patriots inexplicably went for it on 4th down on their own 28 against the Colts while leading by 6, most everyone has focused on that final play. As if that play was the only play that decided the outcome of the game. I’ve said time and time again that football is a game of inches and one play can literally make the difference between winning and losing. So, it’s true that if the Patriots converted that 4th down, the game would have been over. That one play made the difference. But there were plenty of other “one plays” that determined the outcome as well.
Let’s be honest. Anyone watching this game probably had the same thought that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick must have had: If we give the Colts the ball back, they’re going to score from anywhere on the field. The Colts had just scored two touchdowns on eerily similar 79-yard drives in less than two minutes each time. Sandwiched between those two drives was an interception of Manning on a pass in which his receiver clearly ran the wrong route. Otherwise that drive probably would have ended in a touchdown as well. Maybe that 4th down call wasn’t so crazy after all. And besides, even if the Patriots failed to get the 1st down, they might have gotten the ball back with enough time to drive down and kick a game-winning field goal.
But if that’s the way that Belichick was thinking—and we’ll never know, because he is the king of being tight-lipped—then the decisions he and his coaching staff made both before and after the 4th down play are all the more maddening.
Let’s begin at the beginning. The Patriots were playing a brilliant game. After driving 73 yards for the first touchdown of the game, the Patriots allowed a 90-yard touchdown drive to the Colts. After that, the Patriots’ defense forced 6 punts and intercepted Manning once, while the offense roared to a 31-14 lead. And up until that point, the game was not as close as the score indicated. The Patriots could have been up 45-14 because Tom Brady threw an interception in the end zone and Laurence Maroney fumbled on the goal line. But after the Colts marched the field to cut the lead to 31-21, Belichick must have been having flashbacks to the Patriots’ loss to the Colts in the AFC Championship Game three years ago. Or to the 4th quarter of their Super Bowl XLII loss to the Giants. Or even to the 4th quarter of Super Bowl XXXVIII against the Panthers. Each time the Patriots’ defense collapsed after playing brilliantly for three quarters.
Which makes Belichick’s next seven decisions all the more perplexing. He saw what was coming, probably better than anyone else. And yet only when faced with a go-for-it-and-possibly-win vs. punt-it-and-probably-lose decision did he finally attempt to counteract what was happening.
Up 31-21 following the first Colts 79-yard drive, the Patriots took over on their own 20. At first, the drive looked like their previous two, as the Patriots began to move the ball with short passes. But their two runs by Maroney gained 0 and 2 yards each. On 2-and-8 Brady was sacked—possibly because the Colts decided they didn’t need to try and stop the run any more—and the Patriots were left with 3rd-and-10. To that point they had had three 3rd downs of 8 yards or more. They made the 1st down only on their first attempt. After that they were 0-for-2. The Patriots basically had three choices: 1) Run the ball, trying to gain a surprise 1st down as they had done several times with a Kevin Faulk inside draw, and punt if they don’t get it; 2) Determine at that point that it was time to start going for it on 4th down to retain possession (they were on their own 45) and run two plays to get their 10 yards; or 3) Run a pass play designed to pick up 10 yards. Even if Option #1 led to a punt, at least a running play burned another 30 seconds off the clock. Belichick chose Option #3 (Decision #1), Brady threw incomplete, and the Patriots punted with 7:54 remaining in the game.
Ten seconds later, the Patriots had the ball back on the Colts’ 31-yard-line thanks to the wrong-route interception. After gaining one first down (thanks to a Maroney 2-yard run), the Patriots faced a 3rd-and-8 on the Colts’ 18. Once again they had the same choices as before (only substitute a field goal for the punt). Once again Belichick chose Option #3 and once again another 30 seconds were left on the clock thanks to an incomplete pass (Decision #2).
Touchdown, Colts, and the lead is down to 6 with 2:23 remaining in the game. Belichick huddles on the sideline with Brady and talks to whomever is on the other end of his headset. All we ever hear about the Patriots is how well prepared they are and how Belichick gets them ready for even the most unlikely of situations. So what happens following a kickoff and all of the strategizing on the sideline? The Patriots have to call a timeout. (Dumbfounding Decision #3.)
Even more dumbfounding, out of the timeout they line up in a conventional one back set—with Kevin Faulk not Maroney in the backfield—and run right up the middle. No gain (Decision #4). They burned a timeout for that? Timeout Colts, their first. Next, Brady completes a pass to Welker for 8 yards. Now it’s 3rd-and-2 with 2:11 remaining and time to plan the next two plays thanks to the Colts’ timeout.
And here’s where it gets interesting. You’ve got to come out of this timeout with a plan for the next two plays, because the game is on the line. If you know you’re going for it on 4th down, then you could line up in the shotgun and give the inside handoff to Kevin Faulk. Maybe you make the 1st down, but worst case scenario you get a little closer to the 1st and you make the Colts burn another timeout. Or you could play action and try to hit a deep pass to Moss for a game-winning 1st down. If it’s incomplete, at least you went for it and maybe you even get to the 2-minute warning by taking up 11 seconds.
The Patriots’ decision? Send everyone on routes that are close to the line of scrimmage—exactly what the Colts were hoping would happen. And Brady threw a tough pass to Welker that went incomplete, burning a mere 3 seconds of clock. Even Welker’s route made no sense. The guy makes a living eating up the middle of the field for catches and yet they sent him toward the sideline and made Brady throw a pass he’s had trouble completing all season (Decision #5).
No need for a timeout from the Colts, and 2:08 still remaining. The Patriots inexplicably burn their final timeout (Decision #6) and go for it on 4th down, failing to convert. (Which I’m sure you know by now.)
But the bad decisions weren’t over yet. 2:00 remaining, the Colts on the 29-yard line, and the Patriots have no timeouts left. The Colts need a touchdown. And if they get it, the Patriots need the ball back as soon as possible. So what do the Patriots do? Play the same defense that hasn’t worked the entire quarter. Why not blitz 8? If you get the sack, great, if you don’t then the Colts probably score. Then you’d get the ball back, which is what you want. Instead they stick with the defense that wasn’t working (Decision #7) and the Colts complete a 15-yard pass and then a 14-yard run that puts the ball on the 1-yard line. Two plays (and 1:43 of clock) later, touchdown. Game over.
You can debate 4th-and-2 all you want. I’m still perplexed about the other seven decisions: 3rd-and10, 3rd-and-8, timeout #2, 1st-and-10, 3rd-and-2, timeout #3, and not playing aggressive defense on the Colts’ final drive. Those seven decisions led just as much to the Patriots’ loss as 4th-and-2.
At this point Patriots fans have to hope that this is one of those learning experiences that will get the team to gel and propel them forward. Like the 29-28 loss to the Dolphins in Week 15 in 2004 (the Patriots gave up two touchdowns in 44 seconds late in the 4th quarter). Or the 31-0 loss to the Bills at the start of the 2003 season (the game after which ESPN’s Tom Jackson famously declared that the Patriots “hate their coach”). Or the 30-10 loss to the Dolphins in Week 4 of the 2001 season (after the game Belichick and the Patriots buried the game ball as a signal that they were moving on). Why these three games? Because in each instance the team rallied together and marched to a Super Bowl victory.
At the end of the day it was a devastating regular season loss. But it was still a regular season loss. There are not months of angst ahead before the next game. On Sunday afternoon, just seven days later, they’ll tee it up again for the next big game. How the Patriots’ players and coaches respond is the real question now.
NFL Week 11 Picks
CAROLINA (-3) over Miami TAMPABAY (+11) over New Orleans NY GIANTS (-6½) over Atlanta JACKSONVILLE (-8½) over Buffalo GREENBAY (-6½) over San Francisco MINNESOTA (-10½) over Seattle Indianapolis (-1) over BALTIMORE Washington (+11) over DALLAS Pittsburgh (-10) over KANSAS CITY DETROIT (-3½) over Cleveland ST. LOUIS (+9) over Arizona Cincinnati (-9½) over OAKLAND San Diego (-2½) over DENVER NEW ENGLAND (-10½) over NY Jets CHICAGO (+3) over Philadelphia Tennessee (+4½) over HOUSTON
After an unprecedented three straight weeks with six teams on a bye (giving us just 13 games per weekend), the NFL is finally at near-full strength this week, with only the Giants and Texans getting the week off. Next week the full slate of 16 games returns. So with the byes officially over after this week and my prognosticating skills severely diminished after a solid run to start the season, it's time to take a look at each game in detail this week.
Thursday Night Football
Chicago at San Francisco Thursday Night Football is back--because with the byes mercifully almost over the NFL has a new way to mess up picking games as well as Fantasy Football rosters: Thursday Night Football. The Bears lost at Cincinnati 45-10 and to Arizona at home 41-21. The 49ers have lost four straight and five of their last six. What a perfect match-up to kick off the Thursday night series. (Insert sarcasm here.) Pick: Chicago (+3½)
Sunday games
New Orleans at St. Louis The Saints are the most feared team in the NFL. They win with offense (40+ points scored four times). They win with defense (7 defensive touchdowns this season). The Rams, on the other hand, are one of the least feared teams in the NFL. Their lone win came against the 1-7 Lions and they've scored more than 17 points just once. How do you think this one's going to go? Pick: New Orleans (-14)
Tampa Bay at Miami The battle of Florida. Are the Dolphins the best 3-5 team in NFL history? If they could just find a way to close out games they could be 6-2. Pick: Miami (-10)
Detroit at Minnesota After a homecoming to remember in Green Bay, Brett Favre and the Vikings received a rare gift--two weeks off: a bye and a visit from the Lions. Pick: Minnesota (-16½)
Jacksonville at NY Jets After an impressive 3-0 start, the Jets have lost four of their last five. Meanwhile, in the Jaguars' last three games they've barely beaten the Rams and Chiefs while they've handed the Titans their first win. Your guess is as good as mine on this one. Pick: Jacksonville (+7)
Buffalo at Tennessee What great times these two teams have had together. The greatest playoff comeback ever (when the Titans were the Oilers). The Music City Miracle. And this weekend? A boring game that most people don't want to watch. Pick: Tennessee (-6½)
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh The Bengals are officially for real now. And while not many people saw it coming, it was one of the best predictions from my NFL preview. A win over Pittsburgh this week will be the next step in their dramatic rise to the division title. Pick: Cincinnati (+7)
Denver at Washington Just what the Broncos need to snap their two-game losing streak--a trip to D.C. Pick: Denver (-4)
Atlanta at Carolina The Falcons are 5-0 against teams that are at .500 or worse, while they are 0-3 against the Saints, Patriots, and Cowboys. They still have two games with Tampa Bay, as well as dates with the Jets, Bills, and this week's game against the Panthers. Which means this team could theoretically finish with 10 wins without ever beating a team with a winning record. Pick: Atlanta (-2)
Kansas City at Oakland Every second the Red Zone Channel spends on this game is a second that's wasted. I don't even want to pick it. But I guess I will. Pick: Oakland (-2)
Seattle at Arizona The defending NFC Champion Cardinals are even more perplexing this year than they were last year. They are 1-3 at home, getting outscored 106-75. On the road, they are 4-0 and have outscored their opponents 123-58. So since they're at home this week, I'm going with the Seahawks, even though it makes no sense except for the above stats. Pick: Seattle (+8½)
Dallas at Green Bay The Packers lost to Tampa Bay last week. That's really as much analysis as I need. Pick: Dallas (-3)
Philadelphia at San Diego Eagles coach Andy Reid challenged the spot on a 4th down play last week. It didn't go well. Later, trailing by 7 with 4:27 remaining in the game and out of timeouts, he ordered a field goal. And then kicked away instead of trying an onside kick. It was hands down one of the worst--and most perplexing--performances by a head coach in NFL history. Having Reid go head-to-head with Chargers coach Norv Turner this week is like an anti-Hall of Fame match-up. Pick: San Diego (-1½)
Sunday Night Football
New England at Indianapolis Once again, Patriots-Colts is one of the most anticipated games of the season. The Patriots are starting to gel while the Colts are fighting through injuries yet somehow winning every game. I like the Patriots to take this one and raise the intrigue level on this season. Pick: New England (+3)
Monday Night Football
Baltimore at Cleveland It's the old Browns vs. the new Browns. Since leaving Cleveland in 1996 and becoming the Baltimore Ravens, the old Browns have made the playoffs five times and won one Super Bowl. Since joining the league as an expansion franchise in 1999, the new Browns have made the playoffs once and had six different head coaches. The depth of this mismatch is unimaginable. Pick: Baltimore (-11)
Since the NFL has 6 teams on a bye for an unprecedented third straight week, I decided I'd take a bye as well...
Week 9 NFL Picks
ATLANTA (-10) over Washington Green Bay (-9½) over TAMPA BAY NEW ENGLAND (-10½) over Miami Kansas City (+6½) over JACKSONVILLE INDIANAPOLIS (-9) over Houston CINCINNATI (+3) over Baltimore Arizona (+3) over CHICAGO Detroit (+10) over SEATTLE NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Carolina SAN FRANCISCO (-4½) over Tennessee San Diego (+4½) over NY GIANTS PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Dallas Pittsburgh (-3) over DENVER
With the first set of BCS rankings released this week and more NFL Power Polls than you can shake a remote at available on the Internet, Sports in a Can has decided to get into the action. Welcome to the inaugural Sports in a Can NFL Rankings.
First, let's explain how the list came to be. I was trying to decide how good the Broncos are. They are 6-0 but the image of their opening week win--which only came to be because of one of the flukiest plays in NFL history--still gnaws at me every time I consider how good they are. That game clearly could have gone either way if you think about it. And really any NFL game decided by 8 points or less is one play away from going the other way.
That led to my realization that every team really has three sets of win totals: 1. their actual number of wins; 2. the number of games they would have won if they won every close game; and 3. the number of games they would have won if they lost every close game. I define close games as any game decided by 8 points or less.
And that's it. That's the formula. Put even more simply:
a win by 9+ points is worth 3 points a win by 1-8 points is worth 2 points a loss by 1-8 points is worth 1 point a loss by 9+ points is worth 0 points
I kept it simple by using the above method, even though a team who scored a late touchdown to cut the lead to under 8 really skews the formula. But I wanted something that could be figured out quickly for any team in this or any season.
To test the formula, I looked at last season's teams. At the end of the regular season, the Tennessee Titans would have had the #1 ranking with a rating of 36. They won 13 games, had 1 close loss, and 4 close wins (13 wins + 14 potential wins + 9 potential wins, or (9*3) + (4*2) + (1*1) = 36). They were upset in the playoffs by the Baltimore Ravens--who won 11 games but would have had a rating of 35, just one behind Tennessee. Arizona's rating was 27, and the teams they beat on the road to the Super Bowl had ratings of 29 (Atlanta), 32 (Carolina), and 31 (Philadelphia). Maybe those playoff results weren't so crazy after all.
And if you want some historical perspective, the best regular season rating I've seen is 44, accomplished by the 2007 Patriots (who went on to lose the Super Bowl to a team with an improbably low rating of 26). The 1985 Bears finished the regular season with a 43 (their "close games" were defined as games decided by 7 or less since the two-point conversion was not in effect back then). And the number teams would like to avoid is 5. That would be the rating the Lions achieved last season thanks to their 5 close losses and 0 wins.
Since we are through 6 weeks a perfect rating would be 18 (six wins by 9 or more). For any team that has already had their bye, I have taken their per game average and multiplied by 6.
Any ties were broken by looking in depth at each team's slate of games to date. Other than that, the numbers speak for themselves.
Without further ado, here is the first ever Sports in a Can NFL Rankings (the number in parentheses is the team's rating according to the above formula):
32 Tampa Bay (2) The winless Buccaneers are the worst team in the league right now. They barely get the nod over the Rams by virtue of their 7-point loss last week to Carolina. Other than that they have one 3-point loss and 4 losses of 9 or more. But it was this close between these two teams.
31 St. Louis (2) Their overtime loss to the Jags last week just barely keeps the Rams out of the cellar.
30 Detroit (3) Another toss-up between teams with the same rating, but the Lions' lone close loss was an 8-point loss to the Steelers that no one really thought they had a chance of winning, right?
29 Cleveland (3) The Browns could have won their overtime game against the Bengals, which keeps them a spot above the Lions.
28 Tennessee (3) The winless Titans ahead of two teams with 1 win each even after their 59-0 loss to New England? Only because the Titans have played one more close game than the Lions and Rams have. Sure, Tennessee lost all three of their close games but they were one play away in each game. Of course, if they keep playing like they did against the Patriots last week they could find themselves at the bottom of this list soon enough.
27 Kansas City (4) All hail the Chiefs, who finally posted a win after coming close in overtime against the Cowboys and losing by 3 to the Raiders in Week 2.
26 Oakland (5) Speaking of the Raiders, their win over Philadelphia last week slots them in at #26--still the worst of all the teams with 2 or more wins.
25 Carolina (6) After an 0-3 start the Panthers have won back-to-back games, but both by 7 or less. Meanwhile quarterback Jake Delhomme has thrown 10 interceptions in 5 games.
24 Seattle (7) The Most Jekyl and Hyde team in the league, the Seahawks have won 2 games by a combined score of 69-0 but have lost 3 games by a combined score of 84-30. They sit behind Buffalo until we can figure out which team is going to show up each week. But keep this in mind: The Cardinals lost 4 games by 9 or more last season--more than any other playoff team--and ended up in the Super Bowl. But 3 losses by that much this early in the season is a bad sign for Seattle.
23 Buffalo (7) The Bills should have beaten the Patriots Week 1 but since then it's been a roller coaster ride, including their bizarre win over the Jets last week. They've allowed 961 rushing yards just in the last 4 games. If they continue giving up yards on the ground at that pace it's going to be a long season.
22 Miami (7.2) The Wildcat offense is about as erratic as the Dolphins' entire team. They almost beat the Colts, then struggled against the Chargers. They blew out the Bills then barely got by the Jets. How this team fares in it's next three games--against the Saints, Jets, and Patriots--could determine how the rest of the season will go.
21 San Diego (7.2) The Chargers are ahead of the Dolphins simply because they won their head-to-head match-up, but things are not good in San Diego. They can't run the ball and they can't stop anyone. There are going to be quite a few shoot-outs in the Chargers' future.
20 Jacksonville (8) The Jaguars lost to Seattle by 41 and barely beat the lowly Rams in overtime last week. And yet there are 12 worse teams than them in the NFL.
19 Washington (8) Washington is the only team on the board who, with a play per game going the right way, could be either undefeated or winless. Every Redskins game has been decided by 8 points or less. This can't possibly continue, can it?
18 Cincinnati (9) Why are the 4-2 Bengals sitting behind 9 teams with 3 wins? They are the only team in the top 24 without a defining win (a win by 9 or more) and their 11-point loss to the Texans last week goes in the "unwinnable game" category. Five of the Bengals' six games have been decided by 7 points or less--which means they could just as easily be 0-6 as they could 5-1. They've had some big wins (and should have won Week 1) but until they start putting teams away, their rating is going to continue to suffer.
17 NY Jets (9) After a 3-0 start, the last 3 weeks have been a disaster for the Jets. Were quarterback Mark Sanchez's first three games too good to be true?
16 Houston (10) Of course the perpetually 8-8 Texans are right in the middle of the pack. Where else would they be?
15 Arizona (10.8) The 2009 Cardinals are just hanging around, beating the bad teams and losing to the good teams. They have six games the rest of the way against teams .500 or better and four games against teams with a combined 1 win, so they theoretically could cruise to an 8-8 record without breaking a sweat.
14 San Francisco (10.8) The 49ers beat the Cardinals head-to-head, so they get the nod for the #14 spot. Who can figure this team out right now? They had a win against the Vikings in the books until Favre's last-minute heroics but two weeks later they're losing 45-10 to Atlanta--at home. They have a very similar remaining schedule to the Cardinals' (including one more head-to-head game) and finally have #1 pick Michael Crabtree in the lineup and running back Frank Gore back from injury.
13 Chicago (10.8) Improbably, the Bears currently have the same rating as the Cardinals and 49ers. But they have only one win over a quality team to go with two close losses to good teams.
12 Baltimore (11) The Ravens would have been near the top of the rankings after three straight wins (two of them via the blowout) to open the season. But three straight losses have Baltimore stuck closer to the middle of the pack.
11 Philadelphia (12) Just looking at the numbers I had Philadelphia coming out ahead of the five other teams with a 12 rating. Until I looked at the fact that the Eagles' three "take care of business games" came against the 25th, 27th, and 32nd ranked teams on this list. That would have been fine until they lost to the 26th-ranked Raiders last week. This automatically disqualifies the Eagles from winning any tiebreakers.
10 Green Bay (12) Like the Eagles, the Packers' biggest wins have come against the dregs of the league (30th ranked Detroit and 31st ranked St. Louis). Their much-awaited rematch with Brett Favre and the Vikings is next weekend, though.
9 Atlanta (12) Atlanta's close win over the Panthers and not-so-close loss to the Patriots keep the 4-1 Falcons sitting behind the 3-2 Cowboys.
8 Dallas (12) The Cowboys have lost close games to two of the best teams in the league (the Giants and Broncos) but struggled to beat the Chiefs two weeks ago, keeping them just below the Patriots on this list.
7 New England (12) The Patriots have a solid win against the Falcons, a close one over the Ravens, and an overtime loss to the Broncos working for them. Plus a 59-0 win gets you the nod when it comes to tiebreakers.
6 Pittsburgh (12) The Steelers followed up back-to-back close losses with three straight wins heading into two straight games against currently undefeated teams (Minnesota and Denver).
5 NY Giants (13) The Giants did not look good against the Saints last week, but that one game did not undo the work they did in their first five. The road ahead is not a picnic for the Giants--7 of their final 10 games are against teams that are above .500.
4 Minnesota (15) The 6-0 Vikings have taken care of business against the 29th, 30th, and 31st ranked teams on the list. Two of their three other games easily could have been losses. That makes the Vikings the 4th best undefeated team in the league.
3 Denver (15) And the answer to my original question--how good are the Broncos--is this: They are the 3rd best team in the NFL. The Broncos' three close wins came against the 7th, 8th, and 19th teams on this list, and they've taken care of business against the three bad teams they've played. It all adds up to an incredible turnaround by the Broncos. And with games remaining against Washington, San Diego, Kansas City (twice), and Oakland, the Broncos actually have a shot at a first round bye in the playoffs.
2 Indianapolis (15.6) After back-to-back squeakers to start the season, the Colts have won their last three by the combined score of 96-36. They come out of the bye with 0-6 St. Louis and then play 8 of their next 9 against teams that are .500 or better.
1 New Orleans (18) And then there are the Saints. They've played 5 games and won all 5 of them by 14 or more. That gives them a perfect record in our ratings system. And with three games remaining with 0-6 teams and only four with teams over .500, it's going to be tough to get them out of this top spot.
Week 7 Picks
New England (-14½) over Tampa Bay Indianapolis (-13½) over ST. LOUIS Minnesota (+5) over PITTSBURGH KANSAS CITY (+5) over San Diego HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco Green Bay (-7) over CLEVELAND OAKLAND (+7) over NY Jets Buffalo (+7) over CAROLINA CINCINNATI (-1) over Chicago New Orleans (-6½) over MIAMI DALLAS (-4) over Atlanta NY GIANTS (-7) over Arizona Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON
Four weeks of the NFL season are in the books, and we can now see who the contenders are and who the pretenders are, right? Not so fast. All you have to do is go back one season to see that even after four weeks of play, as Hogan's Heroes' Sergeant Schultz would say, "I know nuuu-sssing!"
Last year at this time Buffalo was 4-0, and Tampa Bay, Denver, Washington, and Dallas were 3-1. Buffalo ended the season 7-9, Tampa Bay 9-7, Denver 8-8, Washington 8-8, and Dallas 9-7. None of them made the playoffs. Meanwhile Arizona, Atlanta, San Diego, and Philadelphia were all 2-2, and Indianapolis and Miami were 1-2. All six of those teams made the playoffs. And the Cardinals--after their second of five embarr****ing East Coast trips--ended up making the Super Bowl.
An NFL record five teams are 4-0 this year--the Colts, Broncos, Giants, Vikings, and Saints. Meanwhile, five teams are 0-4 (Kansas City, Cleveland, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis), and Carolina is 0-3. But records don't tell the whole story, as evidenced by last season.
Is there really that much separation between the haves and the have nots? Close games are decided by just a play or two. Take the Broncos. Their Week 1 win came on one of the flukiest plays in the history of the NFL. Three weeks later and they are 4-0. What if they had lost that game? Would they be 0-4 instead? And how about the Titans? They lost to the Steelers in overtime in Week 1. Would they have rattled off four straight wins if they had pulled that one out instead of four straight losses?
The NFL, as we have seen time and time again, is a fickle creature. Teams finish in last one season only to finish in first the next. Teams make it all the way to the Super Bowl one year only to miss the playoffs the next.
This week two of the winless teams take on two of the undefeated teams. Those are two of the games Vegas has posted spreads of 10 or more for. And even with quarterback question marks on two of those favored teams--the Giants and Eagles--I'm having a hard time finding a reason to pick the underdogs. And yet it wouldn't surprise me if one of the underdogs pulled off an upset.
Prognosticators are not immune to the ups and downs of the NFL, either. My first two weeks picking games I was stuck at .500. Last week I went 11-3 against the spread. But you won't hear any gloating from this camp. That 11-3 record could just as easily plummet to 3-11 this week. So let's get to this week's picks...
Week 5 Picks
Cincinnati (+8½) over BALTIMORE PHILADELPHIA (-15) over Tampa Bay NY GIANTS (-14½) over Oakland Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY Pittsburgh (-10½) over DETROIT CAROLINA (-3½) over Washington BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS Atlanta (+2½) over SAN FRANCISCO Jacksonville (E) over SEATTLE New England (-3) over DENVER ARIZONA (-5½) over Houston Indianapolis (-3½) over TENNESSEE NY Jets (-1½) over MIAMI
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