2007 NFL Playoff Preview

But Maybe I'm Crazy
Maybe you're Crazy
Maybe we're Crazy
Probably

- Crazy, Gnarls Barkley

One of the craziest NFL seasons on record came to a close last weekend in the only way it possibly could-with a crazy finish. A record 20 teams were alive for playoff spots entering the final set of games. And given the unimportance of Home Field Advantage this season, is it any surprise that the Kansas City Chiefs clinched a playoff spot because they won their game while three other teams lost at home?

Home teams finished the season 136-120. The best team in the NFC has a quarterback controversy. While the #2 seed in the NFC won only 10 games and received a bye, two AFC playoff teams with 12 wins have to play in Round 1. The NFC West champion Seattle Seahawks lost three of their last four games. The 8-8 Wild Card Giants lost six of their final eight games.

All these things only scratch the surface of crazy. This season was crazier than the finish of the Fiesta Bowl three nights ago. I have to digress here: has there ever been a sequence of football that included a team getting three shots at a tying two-point conversion; an interception returned for a touchdown on the very next play; a 4th-and-18 completion that turns into a touchdown thanks to the hook-and-ladder; a 25-yard scoring run on the first play of overtime; a scoring answer on 4th-and-2 that's a direct snap wide receiver pass; a decision to go for 2 points instead of the tie; and the Statue of Liberty play for the win? The answer is no. Oh, and the kid who scored the winning points ran over and proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend after spiking the ball. Seriously, you're kidding me with all of this, right? My only question is this: who does Boise State play this week?

Back to the NFL craziness. Earlier this year Matt Bryant of Tampa Bay kicked a 62-yard field goal to beat the Eagles. The Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans each won games in which they scored 3 points on offense but 21 points on defense and/or special teams. One of the top quarterbacks in the league (Donovan McNabb) got injured and his replacement (Jeff Garcia) led them to the division title.

That's the kind of year it's been. It didn't stop there. While the rest of the music industry treats appearances at sporting events as if they were at Uncle Louie's 80th birthday party, we had a performance for the ages back in September. U2 and Green Day gave a stirring set in front of a sold out Louisiana Superdome crowd prior to the first home game for the Saints since before Hurricane Katrina. The Saints then rode a wave of emotion to a 23-3 win, and ended up the 2nd-best team in the NFC. This from a team that had a rookie head coach and didn't even have a home field last season.

So with all of this craziness as a prelude, there's no way the playoffs will be any saner, right? Chargers-Bears sounds like a reasonable Super Bowl pick. But with the way this year went, it's an impossibility.

I said back in my NFL Preview that "NFL prognosticating is like raising children. We all-parents, experts, and extended family members-think we're good at it, but does anyone really know what they're talking about?" Who knew this season would put an exclamation point on that statement? Sports Illustrated's Super Bowl picks-Miami and Carolina-didn't even make the playoffs. Yours truly went a career-worst 112-140-4 against the spread. No one could figure out who would win any game or why.

So , why shouldn't I be the one to restore some sense to things? After all, as bad as my weekly picks were, I still correctly predicted half of the playoff field (and left out Chicago and Seattle out of stubbornness, otherwise it would have nailed 8 out of 12), and not only are both of my Super Bowl picks in the hunt, but all four of my predicted championship teams are in the mix as well.

I'm going to stick with my Super Bowl prediction, but I'm going to predict that my original AFC Championship guess of Baltimore-Indianapolis will meet one round earlier. Why? Because a Jets win over New England would need to happen otherwise. And I just can't predict that will happen. I just can't. It's not that it's too crazy. It's just too painful (as a Patriots fan).

Here's the way I see Round 1 shaping up, along with the rest of the playoffs (including some crazy NFC picks):

Indianapolis 44, Kansas City 31

"You play to win the game!" And hope for three home teams to lose so that you can sneak in. To say the Chiefs are lucky to be here is an understatement. And even though Kansas City can run the ball and cause problems for the Colts' defense, I see the Colts slowly pulling away in this high-scoring affair.

Dallas 36, Seattle 35

Following the Boise State formula, Terrell Owens throws the final touchdown pass and the Cowboys go for two with Terry Glenn running in the conversion on the Statue of Liberty play. Tony Romo proposes to Carrie Underwood on the sideline.

New England 38, NY Jets 10

I've gone back and forth on this game all week. Will it be close? Will it be a blowout? Will the Jets pull the upset? I've rewritten this paragraph 15 times. All right. I'm done. I'm not touching it again. It's the Pats in an unexpected blowout. Vinny Testaverde adds the final touchdown instead of kneeling down, just to rub it in. Bill Belichick bear hugs Eric Mangini after the game. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

NY Giants 26, Philadelphia 23 (in overtime)

These two teams played the weirdest games of the season with the losing teams snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in both games. The Giants rally from 23 points down thanks to Tiki Barber's 250 rushing yards and pull off the win in overtime.

Round 2

Over the last 10 years, teams with first round byes are 31-9 in Week 2. So in this crazy season I see three home teams losing this year:

Baltimore beats Indianapolis (Game 2 is always when the Colts lose in the playoffs)
New England beats San Diego (Marty-ball chokes up another one)
Dallas beats New Orleans (Parcells wins the rematch with his former prot