NFL prognosticating is like raising children. We all-parents, experts, and extended family members-think we're good at it, but does anyone really know what they're talking about?

The "parents" in this analogy would be general managers, coaches, and even the players, themselves. Ask any of them how their team will do this year and they'll probably tell you they're Super Bowl-bound. Our children can do no wrong. Brett Favre, for example, said with a straight face that this is the most talented team he's been on in the NFL. This is akin to the parents of a Harvard Rhodes Scholar telling you how wonderful their other child is. You know, the one in prison.

"Experts" at NFL prognosticating include the boys in Vegas and a host of magazine and television personalities. They all think they know their stuff. In Vegas, they post an over/under for how many games each NFL team will win each year. Last year they came within 2 games of being correct on only 12 of the 32 teams. They were off by as many as 5