Before we get to the official Sports in a Can predictions, let's try and answer the 12 most pressing questions about the upcoming playoffs:
1. Will a Cubs-White Sox or Cubs-Red Sox World Series have the same cachet as it might have pre-2004?
No, unfortunately, it won't. Nothing could have topped fan interest in a Red Sox-Cubs World Series if neither had won one since before the Great Depression. And no subway series could ever have topped the battle of Chicago with one team winning for the first time in almost a century and the other team facing another painful offseason. It would still be fun to see either match-up, but it just wouldn't be the same.
2. What other World Series match-up would be lots of fun?
How about Red Sox-Dodgers? Manny Ramirez and Derek Lowe against this year's edition? Joe Torre matching wits with Terry Francona once more? The Boston-LA rivalry getting another boost following Celtics-Lakers earlier this year? Now that would be fun.
3. How big a factor will home field advantage be in this year's postseason?
Usually, home field advantage does not come into play during baseball's postseason. Over the last four years, the home teams are 70-52 during the playoffs. That amounts to a .574 winning percentage, which is pretty good with a sample size of 122 games. But over the course of a five or seven game series, any effect of having the home field is diminished due to the small sample size. And taken league by league, the numbers are even less stellar. From 2004 to 2006, in the American League playoffs, the home teams went 6-8, 6-7, and 6-5. Only last year did the league post a gaudy 10-4 record. What's interesting about that is that last season all four American League playoff teams won more than 50 home games-the only time that happened in the last four years. Once again the AL will send four teams with 50+ home wins to the postseason, so perhaps home field will again be a factor.
4. How impressive were Francisco Rodriguez's 62 saves and will he be a difference maker in the playoffs?
Rodriguez might have compiled one of the most unimpressive records in the history of sports. His record 62 saves were compiled over the course of just 68.1 innings with an ERA of 2.24. Not only did he have zero saves in which he had to pitch more than one inning, he did not pitch more than one inning in any outing this season! Everyone knows the playoffs are all about stretching out the ends of games, and even though the Angels have a very good bullpen, eventually Rodriguez will have to pitch more than one inning, won't he?
5. How historic was what the Tampa Bay Rays did this season?
It was one of the greatest one season turnarounds in the history of sports. Tampa Bay won 66 games last year, and in their 10-year history they'd never won more than 70. This year they won 97 games, and outdueled the Red Sox and Yankees-who have a combined $4 billion payroll (or close to that).
6. How do the Rays keep winning?
Perhaps it's the name change from Devil Rays to Rays this year. No Ray hit better than .295 for the season. They only have one player with more than 100 RBIs. Their top two pitchers went a combined 26-16 and no starter won more than 14 games. And yet they won 97 games and kept the Red Sox at bay to win the AL East. I'm not counting them out in the playoffs.
7. Why is TBS in charge of the Division Series games?
Money? That can be the only reason. It's certainly not TBS' performance as the Braves' main network. I mean it's TBS. The home of House of Payne and Bill Engvall. And Frank TV. This is really the best we can do?
8. Why won't Bud Selig heed all of your sage advice?
I don't know. As noted last week, Major League Baseball finally smartened up and scheduled two off days prior to the playoffs-and they needed both of them. A couple of my proposals that still need to be addressed are changing the season's end to mid-week, adding a play-in game for the Wild Card (two games like tonight's White Sox-Twins game every year!), and getting rid of the coin toss for determining one game playoffs. Come on, Uncle Bud! You don't have to give me the credit-just make the changes.
9. What Division Series match-up is the most appealing on paper?
Cubs-Dodgers. Joe Torre against Lou Piniella. Manny Ramirez back on the playoff stage. The loveable losers from Chicago against LA's finest. That's the premier match-up, hands down.
10. Which first round series has the best chance to go 5 games?
My top choice is Phillies-Brewers. If Milwaukee can just grab Game 1, 3, or 4, they have CC Sabathia (11-2, 1.65 ERA since joining Milwaukee) who could win Games 2 and 5 by himself.
11. Is it finally the Cubs' year?
It has to be, doesn't it? After the infamous collapse of 2003, they watched in horror as the Red Sox won in 2004 and 2007, and had to endure their cross-town rivals winning it all in 2005. (Not to mention seeing the NL Central-rival Cardinals win in 2006.) This is the Cubs' time, right?
12. Who will this year's postseason winners be?
Division Series
Rays 3, White Sox 0
The Rays just keep winning.
Red Sox 3, Angels 2
In the new millennium, Boston always beats LA, whether it's Celtics over Lakers or Red Sox over Angels. Beckett might be hurt, but the Red Sox still have Lester and Matsuzaka.
Cubs 3, Dodgers 1
Unless Derek Lowe can be the Derek Lowe from 2004 and people can get on base in front of Ramirez, this series will be shorter than everyone thinks.
Brewers 3, Phillies 2
Milwaukee steals one and Sabathia wins twice more.
ALCS
Rays 4, Red Sox 2
Unbelievable but true. (To my fellow Red Sox fans: I didn't pick them last year either.)
NLCS
Cubs 4, Brewers 1
Destiny calls.
World Series
Cubs 4, Rays 0
The Red Sox swept their World Series wins. The White Sox swept theirs. It's the Cubs turn this year.
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