Four weeks of the NFL season are in the books, and we can now see who the contenders are and who the pretenders are, right? Not so fast. All you have to do is go back one season to see that even after four weeks of play, as Hogan's Heroes' Sergeant Schultz would say, "I know nuuu-sssing!"

Last year at this time Buffalo was 4-0, and Tampa Bay, Denver, Washington, and Dallas were 3-1. Buffalo ended the season 7-9, Tampa Bay 9-7, Denver 8-8, Washington 8-8, and Dallas 9-7. None of them made the playoffs. Meanwhile Arizona, Atlanta, San Diego, and Philadelphia were all 2-2, and Indianapolis and Miami were 1-2. All six of those teams made the playoffs. And the Cardinals--after their second of five embarr****ing East Coast trips--ended up making the Super Bowl.

An NFL record five teams are 4-0 this year--the Colts, Broncos, Giants, Vikings, and Saints. Meanwhile, five teams are 0-4 (Kansas City, Cleveland, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis), and Carolina is 0-3. But records don't tell the whole story, as evidenced by last season.

Is there really that much separation between the haves and the have nots? Close games are decided by just a play or two. Take the Broncos. Their Week 1 win came on one of the flukiest plays in the history of the NFL. Three weeks later and they are 4-0. What if they had lost that game? Would they be 0-4 instead? And how about the Titans? They lost to the Steelers in overtime in Week 1. Would they have rattled off four straight wins if they had pulled that one out instead of four straight losses?

The NFL, as we have seen time and time again, is a fickle creature. Teams finish in last one season only to finish in first the next. Teams make it all the way to the Super Bowl one year only to miss the playoffs the next.

This week two of the winless teams take on two of the undefeated teams. Those are two of the games Vegas has posted spreads of 10 or more for. And even with quarterback question marks on two of those favored teams--the Giants and Eagles--I'm having a hard time finding a reason to pick the underdogs. And yet it wouldn't surprise me if one of the underdogs pulled off an upset.

Prognosticators are not immune to the ups and downs of the NFL, either. My first two weeks picking games I was stuck at .500. Last week I went 11-3 against the spread. But you won't hear any gloating from this camp. That 11-3 record could just as easily plummet to 3-11 this week. So let's get to this week's picks...

Week 5 Picks

Cincinnati (+8½) over BALTIMORE
PHILADELPHIA (-15) over Tampa Bay
NY GIANTS (-14½) over Oakland
Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY
Pittsburgh (-10½) over DETROIT
CAROLINA (-3½) over Washington
BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland
Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS
Atlanta (+2½) over SAN FRANCISCO
Jacksonville (E) over SEATTLE
New England (-3) over DENVER
ARIZONA (-5½) over Houston
Indianapolis (-3½) over TENNESSEE
NY Jets (-1½) over MIAMI

Last week: 11-3

Season: 35-27