After devouring as much football as humanly possible during the NFL's glorious first weekend, one thing is clear: the NFL is the toughest sport by far to predict. I spent about 640 hours breaking down each team to put together my AFC and NFC previews, and in one week the 49ers and Broncos have each already won half as many games as I predicted they'd win all season, my top three AFC teams (Patriots, Chargers, and Colts) won by a combined 7 points, and injuries have already changed the landscape (specifically for the Bears and Eagles).

So as usual, you can't put too much stock in what you saw in Week 1. It's a long season. But let's try and piece through what we saw and improve upon the picks this week:

Carolina at Atlanta 

Jake Delhomme has 11 turnovers in his last two games. In between those two games he received a $42.5 million contract. Can the Panthers' organization take Delhomme to court for breach of contract and get that money back. This is really Jake's last chance isn't it? Another 5+ turnover game and there's no way they can trot him back out there. Which means even though all signs point to Atlanta in this game, Carolina is the choice. A road game is exactly what Delhomme needs to get back on track.
Pick: Carolina (+6)

Minnesota at Detroit 

The Lions lost. Again. (How many people are taking "whoever is playing the Lions" in this year's knockout/elimination/suicide pools?) And it probably won't get any better this week. Minnesota followed the script we expected them to follow--solid defense, lots of Adrian Peterson, and a mistake-free Favre. There's no reason that plan shouldn't work again. This week. Just how long they can stick to that script is the question.
Pick: Minnesota (-9½)

Cincinnati at Green Bay 

The Bengals crossed the 50-yard-line 5 times in the 1st half last week and scored 0 points. What killed those drives? Penalties, a botched snap on a field goal, an interception (on a tipped pass that Ochocinco gave up on), and dropped passes. Was the offense just rusty from Carson Palmer missing most of the preseason? They did have an impressive 91-yard drive to "win the game." Meanwhile the Packers won a tough one at home against the Bears but got a lot of help from Jay Cutler. I'm still not buying what the Packers are selling, and since I improbably picked the Bengals to win the AFC North, I'm going with them with the points in this one. And who knows, maybe they'll even shock everyone and win this one outright.
Pick: Cincinnati (+9)

Arizona at Jacksonville 

That was a solid all-around game by the Jaguars last week. They went toe-to-toe with the Colts on both offense and defense and were a missed 2-point conversion away from tying the game in the 4th quarter. As for Arizona, all I have to say for them is that this game is on the East Coast and starts at 1pm (West Coast teams went 8-17 in 1pm starts last season, and 3 of those wins came against the Rams, who were awful). So there's no way they're winning this game.
Pick: Jacksonville (-3)

Oakland at Kansas City 

The Raiders and Chiefs each looked better than everyone thought they would look opening week, and since they play each other, it will be yet another week before we can gauge how good either of them is. So since it's a toss-up, I'll use the same logic as for the Cardinals--1pm Eastern start for a West Coast team. Give me the Chiefs.
Pick: Kansas City (-3)

New England at NY Jets 

For all of us expecting a Patriots blowout Monday night--the Bills interrupted our regularly scheduled programming. Whether it was rust or adjusting to the new play calling, Tom Brady looked human. Until the second half when he returned to looking superhuman. How long will it take the offense to start rolling? Meanwhile, the Patriots' defense was what we expected them to be: average. After one week they rank 13th overall, 12th against the pass, and 20th against the rush. The defense allowed 17 points (Brady's pick-6 accounted for the other 7). But if they can remain "average" (or better) all season and the offense cranks it up, watch out. On the Jets' side, I have to admit--quarterback Mark Sanchez played really well. Granted, the Texans' defense played abysmally, and on a number of the 6 times Sanchez successfully passed on 3rd down for a 1st down, he hit his receiver near the line of scrimmage and the receiver ran for the 1st down. But you could see his confidence rising with each pass and he made some great throws. Most impressive was after he threw his first career interception he rebounded with a big 40-yard completion to Dustin Keller on his very next pass. This game will probably be a close one. Will Jets' head coach Rex Ryan's bulletin board material be the difference?
Pick: New England (-3½)

New Orleans at Philadelphia

The Saints went crazy on the Lions last week but the defense gave up quite a few yards to the rookie-led Lions. Meanwhile, the Eagles looked explosive on both offense and defense--but Donovan McNabb broke a rib and no one knows whether or not he'll play. It's not going to matter because the combination of the Saints facing a tougher defense, a bit of a letdown after last week, and the Eagles moving the ball against a (still) suspect Saints defense adds up to an Eagles win.
Pick: Philadelphia (+1)

Houston at Tennessee 

One thing was clear from the Titans' opening game with the Steelers: when the Titans don't blitz they don't get a solid pass rush. Expect Tennessee to change things up just a bit after Big Ben picked them apart last week. Plus they've got an extra three days to prepare for this one. The Titans' awful special teams is going to cost them a game or two this season, but not this one. Why? As evidenced on Sunday, the Texans are awful.
Pick: Tennessee (-6½)

St. Louis at Washington 

I heard someone say during the week that a certain team would win this weekend since they "needed the win more" because that team was 0-1 and the team they are playing is 1-0. Well, I've got news for you--since 2001, 0-1 teams are 25-37 against 1-0 teams in Week 2. And in the last two years it's even more pronounced--the 0-1 teams are just 6-20. There are 6 such match-ups this weekend. And if you think all of the 0-1 teams will be hungrier and will play better, then you didn't watch the Rams play last week. "Playing better" isn't even on their agenda. "Showing just a small sign of life" is.
Pick: Washington (-9½)

Seattle at San Francisco

If I believe what I wrote in my NFC preview, then the 49ers are only going to win 1 more game the rest of the season. And I'm guessing this won't be it. Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks started out slowly (just like the rest of the quarterbacks returning from injury) but then rolled over the Rams. They'll take the next step toward their return to the top of the NFC West in this one.
Pick: Seattle (+1½)

Tampa Bay at Buffalo 

How will the Bills respond to their epic collapse against the Patriots last Monday night? If history is any indication, they might respond pretty well. Consider that two years ago the Bills lost in similar fashion on Monday Night Football to the Cowboys (by the exact same 25-24 score). Following their bye week they beat the Ravens 19-14. And last season the Chargers lost the "Ed Hochuli game" to the Broncos and responded by trouncing the Jets 48-29. So perhaps this edition of the Bills will respond similarly. Especially since other than Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay looked dreadful last week.
Pick: Buffalo (-5)

Pittsburgh at Chicago

The Steelers lost their best defensive player and struggled on offense last week. The Bears lost their best defensive player and struggled on offense last week. Do not adjust your set if this game looks eerily similar to Steelers 13, Titans 10 or Packers 18, Bears 15 from a week ago. And apparently the Madden video game cover curse might be real (Troy Polamalu was featured on the cover this season along with Larry Fitzgerald).
Pick: Chicago (+3)

Cleveland at Denver 

The Broncos fumbled (but recovered) the opening kickoff. Their final play of the game was a fluke touchdown pass with 11 seconds remaining. In between was 59 minutes of pure torture. And if the Bengals hadn't shot themselves in the foot all game it wouldn't have even been close. Meanwhile Cleveland looked as bad as we expected them to look against the Vikings. So what happens in this game? I have no idea. But any time the Red Zone Channel switches me to this game I'm changing the channel.
Pick: Denver (-3)

Baltimore at San Diego 

The Ravens outgained the Chiefs 501 yards to 188, ran 85 plays to the Chiefs' 44, and had the ball for almost 40 of the game's 60 minutes. And yet with 5:21 remaining in the game the score was tied. This does not bode well for the Ravens. Meanwhile the Chargers looked completely out of sync against the Raiders. Perhaps they were reading their own press clippings and the hype went to their heads. That's not likely to happen two weeks in a row.
Pick: San Diego (-3)

NY Giants at Dallas 

The Giants won a hard fought battle with the Redskins last week while the Cowboys trounced the Bucs. Dallas opens its new stadium in front of what will be a large, loud crowd. So far the season's first four night games have been decided by 3, 3, 1, and 4 points. The winner of this one probably wins by 3 or less, so since the spread is 3, I'm going with the underdog.
Pick: NY Giants (+3)
Bonus Pick: Over/under on punts hitting the scoreboard: 1½ (Under)

Indianapolis at Miami

Last week the Colts were impressive on defense but had just enough to win on offense. I know the stats were gaudy again, but Peyton Manning didn't look like Peyton Manning and the offense did not look like the video game-style Colts we're used to. Plus they had 2 chances to put the game away on offense--and couldn't do it (they failed on 3rd-and-8 and 4th-and-2 on their final 2 drives). They needed the defense to take care of business. Meanwhile the Dolphins look like the Dolphins again--the 2007 Dolphins (1-15) not the 2008 Dolphins (11-5). This night game will put an end to the streak of night games decided by 4 or less.
Pick: Indianapolis (-3)

Last week: 7-9