I posted my NFC Preview on Monday. With the season kicking off tonight with last year's Super Bowl champion vs. the team with the best regular season record--both AFC teams--let's take a look at the AFC. As we do, there are a few things we need to keep in mind when predicting regular season records:

* No team has ever played in a Super Bowl that was held at their home stadium. As a matter of fact, the last team to even make the playoffs in a year the Super Bowl was held at their home stadium was the 2000 Tampa Buccaneers. So Miami is unlikely to even make the playoffs this year (among other reasons).

* Since 1997, 34 teams won 5 or more games than they won the year before. 27 of these teams won fewer games the next season, with only 2 winning more. AFC teams you can expect to have a worse record this year as opposed to last year are (win improvement and last year's record in parentheses): NY Jets (+5, 9-7), Baltimore (+6, 11-5), and Miami (+10, 11-5). 

* Only 1 out of the last 16 teams with a first round playoff bye earned a first round playoff bye the next season (the 2006 Bears).

* 3 of the 4 teams with the first round playoff byes the year before missed the playoffs entirely in each of the last two seasons. (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and the New York Giants all had the first round byes last year.)

* Since 2002, at least 5 new teams have made the playoffs each season, and no fewer than 2 new teams have made it from each conference.

* The last two times only 2 new teams made the playoffs in one conference (as happened in the AFC last season), at least 4 new teams made it the next year.

* Since 2003, at least one team has gone from last place to first place in their division (and from 2003-2006 two teams did it each season).

Let's take it division by division, beginning with the division I expect to have the #1 seed in the playoffs--the AFC East.

AFC East

New England

As of last Saturday the Patriots were the favorites for the #1 seed in the AFC and the Super Bowl. Then they traded Richard Seymour to the Raiders in a move that set them up with a #1 draft pick two years from now. With Tom Brady back from injury, more weapons on offense than two years ago and a defense that looked to be better than last year's, is Bill Belichick just trying to raise the level of difficulty? Is he taking a page out of his own playbook? After all, he released Lawyer Malloy just before the 2003 season--and the team went on to win the Super Bowl that season. 16-0 doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl victory as we all found out. With the offense this team has, 13 wins sounds about right. But the game Belichick and the Patriots really want to win is Super Bowl XLIV.
Predicted record: 13-3, #1 seed
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Patriots enter their Week 10 showdown with the Colts at 8-0.

Miami

Soft schedule, innovative offense, solid defense, and a career year from quarterback Chad Pennington. That formula equaled 11 wins and a shocking turnaround from 1-15 to division champs for the Miami Dolphins. What can we expect for a follow-up? Fourteen teams since 1978 have won 7+ more games than they did the year before and finished with 10+ wins in all. All 14 teams won 3+ fewer games the next season. This includes the 2000 Colts (from 13-3 to 10-6) and the 2005 Steelers (from 15-1 to 11-5). Can the Dolphins buck this trend? Unlikely. But an 8-8 season would be an impressive follow-up to last season.
Predicted record: 8-8
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Wildcat offense is almost useless by mid-season as other teams figure out a way to stop it.

Buffalo

The no huddle offense? Terrell Owens? The offensive coordinator fired one week before the season starts? Starting left tackle Langston Walker cut 2 days after final cutdown day? What on earth is in the water in Buffalo?
Predicted record: 5-11
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Bills do something else crazy before their first game arrives Monday night.

New York Jets

Rex Ryan is phenomenal. I love his press conferences. I love reading what he said next. It's great. As a head coach? I have no idea. As entertainment? He's phenomenal. But the Jets will not be the next team with a new coach and a new quarterback to take the league by storm.
Predicted record: 5-11
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Jets open the season 0-5 (@Hou, NE, Ten, @NO, and @Mia).

AFC West

San Diego

The Chargers have a healthy Shawne Merriman (as long as his legal troubles keep him on the field), a healthy LaDanian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers getting better every year, and six automatic wins in their dreadful division. I can't imagine a scenario in which the Chargers don't win the division and land a first round bye in the playoffs.
Predicted record: 12-4, #2 seed
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Chargers win 5 of their division games by 10 or more points (with 1 close game).

Kansas City

The Chiefs were going to be the trendy pick for the surprise team of the year. Then they traded away future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez (who would have been a huge help in this offense), quarterback Matt Cassel got hurt, and the Chiefs fired offensive coordinator Chan Gailey one week before the season was to start. Now they're the trendy pick to have a bad season.
Predicted record: 5-11
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Chiefs open the season 2-7--with both wins coming against the Raiders.

Denver

What new head coach Josh McDaniels did in Denver was very Bill Belichick-like. Belichick from his Cleveland days that is. When Belichick arrived in Cleveland he basically told the franchise's star quarterback to take a hike and began to rebuild the team. The difference, of course, was that the Cleveland quarterback was an aging star, not a young star. Compounding the problems in Denver, McDaniels has lost his best receiver (Brandon Marshall) to coach-induced insanity, has the oldest secondary in the league, and has one of the oldest defenses in the league. And instead of focusing on fixing the defense--the clear problem on the team last year--the Broncos improbably drafted a running back with their first pick and then traded away next year's number one to take a cornerback in the second round. Take last year's team, add a rookie running back and cornerback, swap Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler, and subtract Brandon Marshall, and what do you get? A very long season for the Broncos.
Predicted record: 4-12
Wouldn't surprise me if: Denver loses 8 in a row in the middle of the season (Dal, NE, @SD, @Bal, Pit, @Was, SD, NYG). It also wouldn't surprise me if they lose more than 8 in a row.

Oakland

Do I even have to give the gory details? OK, here's two: The head coach got into a fist fight with one of his assistants (sending him to the hospital) and then the walking corpse that is Al Davis traded the team's 2011 #1 draft pick to the Patriots for a defensive player who will be a free agent at the end of this season (if he ever reports).
Predicted record: 2-14
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Raiders ruin your Thanksgiving dinner (they play Dallas that afternoon).

AFC South

Indianapolis

The Colts set an NFL record last year by winning 12+ games for five straight seasons. They've got essentially the same team they had last year, but now they have a completely new coaching staff. How they respond to this change will determine their success. Will they improve and dominate the way Tony Dungy's Tampa Bay team did under Jon Gruden in 2002? Or will they regress? The schedule is a plus for the Colts as they get to face the NFC West and Houston twice, and their seemingly annual grudge match with the Patriots is a home game. Their lone cold weather game is at Buffalo in Week 17--and by then they might have the division wrapped up. The only way the Colts miss the playoffs is if the players and coaches are not only on different pages, they're reading different books. Or if Peyton Manning gets hurt. Since each of those is unlikely (much of the "new" coaching staff was part of the old coaching staff and Peyton Manning has not missed a game in his career), it looks to be another 12+ win season for the Colts.
Predicted record: 12-4, #3 seed
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Colts enter their Week 10 showdown with the Patriots at 8-0.

Jacksonville

The 2008 Jaguars went 5-11 but some of their games did not have the feel of a 5-11 club. A 7-point loss at Tennessee, a 2-point win at Indianapolis, and a 5-point loss to eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh highlighted their early season resume. Of course after their bye they lost to Cleveland and Cincinnati on consecutive weeks, and only a date with the eventual 0-16 Lions prevented a 7-game losing streak. Head coach Jack Del Rio's job could be on the line this season and with the very good chance that the Jaguars' home games will be blacked out, they've got real "us against the world" potential. Add in the mountain of injuries the team suffered last season and we could be looking at a playoff team.
Predicted record: 11-5, Wild Card
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Jaguars win both games against the Colts--but still lose the division to Indianapolis.

Tennessee

Did any player have a greater impact on the 2008 regular season than Albert Haynesworth did? His stats might not show it (8½ sacks) but check out his teammates' stats: Jacob Ford 7 sacks, Jason Jones 5 sacks, Dave Ball 4½ sacks, and Tony Brown 4 sacks. (Heck, even 32-year-old Jevon Kearse had 3½ sacks.) And why did all of these people you've never heard of get to the quarterback last season? Albert Haynesworth--who was getting double- and triple-teamed at times and was in a contract year. We'll see how well they do this season without Haynesworth.
Predicted record: 7-9
Wouldn't surprise me if: Patrick Ramsey--and not Kerry Collins or Vince Young--is playing quarterback before the year is over.

Houston

I'm tired of waiting for the Texans to get good. And I'm tired of predicting the Texans will be good. I've been in their corner ever since their very first game in 2002, when they improbably knocked off the Dallas Cowboys. Blaming last season's poor start on the hurricane that disrupted their schedule is a cop out. Sure they opened @Pit, bye (due to the hurricane), @Ten, @Jax, Ind--which equaled an 0-4 start. Swap in the scheduled home date against Baltimore for the bye and you know what the Texans would have had? An 0-5 start. This team ended up losing to Oakland in Week 16, which interrupted what would have been a 6-game winning streak to end the season. This of course made the Texans the sexy pick to make the leap this year. But you'll notice that there are no rules at the top of this post about teams who end the previous season on a hot streak. You know why? End of the year winning streaks do not create momentum for the next season. They just don't, no matter what anyone tells you. The Texans are, were, and for the foreseeable future will be a mediocre team.
Predicted record: 7-9
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Texans start the season 4-0, get everyone excited about their season, and then the wheels come off. It wouldn't surprise me if they ended the season with a 9-game losing streak.

AFC North

Cincinnati

Cincinnati? The Bungles? Champions of the tough AFC North? That is not a misprint, my friends. Every year there's at least one team that makes a remarkable turnaround that no one saw coming. This year it will be Cincinnati. Everything seems to be stacked against the Bengals heading into this season: the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Carson Palmer's inability to stay healthy, a holdout by 1st round draft pick Andre Smith (who then got hurt), horrible management, Ochocinco's Twittering (which I am now addicted to, by the way--the official Sports in a Can Twitter page is following Ochocinco's page), etc., etc. Not to mention the Bengals' penchant for signing past and future criminals. Finally, add in the fact that this offseason the Bengals were the subjects of HBO's Hard Knocks--which never works out well for the team involved. But if--and this is a big if--everything goes right for Cincinnati (Palmer stays healthy, Ochocinco has a monster season, Cedric Benson continues to be on the upswing, and the defense is even better than last year), they have an outside chance of winning the division. Which is good enough for me. Because I don't trust any other potential surprise team in the AFC.
Predicted record: 10-6, #4 seed
Wouldn't surprise me if: Ochocinco scores a touchdown and updates his Twitter page in the end zone.

Pittsburgh

If I believe what I wrote at the top (that only 2 AFC playoff teams from last season will return to the playoffs this season), and I'm convinced that both Indianapolis and San Diego are locks to return, then Pittsburgh cannot make the playoffs. But after breaking down every single team one-by-one, I cannot find a team to replace the Steelers. So I'm putting the Steelers in. The defense will take a minor step backward and Roethlisberger will continue to struggle at all points during the game except for the 4th quarter. But somehow the Steelers will make it into the postseason tournament again.
Predicted record: 10-6, Wild Card
Wouldn't surprise me if: Roethlisberger throws more interceptions than touchdowns this season (he threw 13 INTS vs. 17 TDs last year).

Baltimore

The last time the Ravens strung together back-to-back 10-win seasons was in 2000 and 2001, which was also the last time their defense repeated a top 5 performance in back-to-back years. Since that time, the effort it took to be a top-caliber defensive club in one season was too much for the succeeding year. Granted, the Ravens' offense has not helped matters over the years. But they haven't quite solved that problem. As impressive as Joe Flaaco was last season, it was a low-risk offense he was in charge of. It stands to reason that the offensive playbook will be a little thicker this season. And the schedule could be tough for Baltimore this year--their first three road trips are to San Diego, New England, and Minnesota. And my favorite nugget of all: according to Sports Illustrated, the Ravens petitioned the league to not schedule a night game in Pittsburgh between the Ravens and Steelers, because they've lost 3 in a row at night in Pittsburgh. Not exactly brimming with confidence, are they? Here's hoping NBC "flexs" their Week 16 match-up to Sunday night.
Predicted record: 7-9
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Ravens lose all 3 of their scheduled night games this season--at Cleveland and Green Bay, and at home against the Steelers.

Cleveland  

Shhh! Don't tell anyone who's starting at quarterback. New head coach Eric Mangini is trying to get every advantage he can by keeping it a secret. It's not as if he's choosing between Joe Montana and Steve Young. His options are Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. I don't think the Vikings' defense--or anyone else for that matter--really cares who starts. Can you imagine Jared Allen screaming, "Brady Quinn! Oh no! We prepared for Derek Anderson!"? Neither can I. Mangini had instant success his first season with the Jets but I don't see it happening in Cleveland. Things are bad in Cleveland. I mean, he's keeping his starting quarterback a secret because he thinks it will give him an advantage. Things are really bad in Cleveland.
Predicted record: 3-13
Wouldn't surprise me if: Cleveland Browns owner Randy Lerner announces that he's keeping the identity of his head coach a secret leading up to the team's Week 13 game against San Diego. You know, to try and get a competitive advantage.

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Week 1 Picks

PITTSBURGH (-6½) over Tennessee
Dallas (-6) over TAMPA BAY
NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Detroit
ATLANTA (-4) over Miami
HOUSTON (-4½) over NY Jets
CINCINNATI (-4) over Denver
Philadelphia (-2½) over CAROLINA
Jacksonville (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS
Minnesota (-4) over CLEVELAND
Kansas City (+13) over BALTIMORE
Washington (+6½) over NY GIANTS
St. Louis (+8) over SEATTLE
ARIZONA (-6½) over San Francisco
Chicago (+3½) over GREEN BAY
NEW ENGLAND (-10½) over Buffalo
SAN DIEGO (-9) over Oakland

Last season: 119-129-8