Two years ago was one of the greatest regular seasons of all time. There was big game after big game and each encounter was memorable. Last season didn't quite have the same cache. So here's hoping this year's version of the NFL can match the 2007 version.

As we take a look at the NFC, there are a few things we need to keep in mind when predicting regular season records:

* Since 1997, 34 teams won 5 or more games than they won the year before. 27 of these teams won fewer games the next season, with only 2 winning more. NFC teams you can expect to have a worse record this year as opposed to last year are (win improvement and last year's record in parentheses): Carolina (+5, 12-4) and Atlanta (+7, 11-5).  

* 7 of the last 8 teams to lose the Super Bowl missed the playoffs the next season, which is bad news for Arizona.

* Only 1 out of the last 16 teams with a first round playoff bye earned a first round playoff bye the next season (the 2006 Bears).

* 3 of the 4 teams with the first round playoff byes the year before missed the playoffs entirely in each of the last two seasons. (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and the New York Giants all had the first round byes last year.)

* Since 2002, at least 5 new teams have made the playoffs each season, and no fewer than 2 new teams have made it from each conference.

* Since 2003, at least one team has gone from last place to first place in their division (and from 2003-2006 two teams did it each season).

* The last place team in the NFC South has finished first the next season 5 times in the last 6 years. Last year's Falcons were the team to break the streak, but they did go from last place to a playoff spot, which means that New Orleans should make the playoffs this year (and could win the division).

Let's take it division by division, beginning with the division I expect to have the #1 seed in the playoffs--the NFC East.

NFC East

Philadelphia

For a variety of reasons I was all set to write off the Eagles this season. Then they signed Michael Vick--possibly the worst possible scenario for Donovan McNabb. Did you see that first preseason game when McNabb and Vick alternated plays? Could the crowd have gone any crazier for Vick? Not the thing McNabb and his psyche need. But you know what? Donovan McNabb is probably the most mentally tough player of his generation. He's certainly had his share of psyche-testing moments. Consider this partial list he's dealt with: getting booed on draft day, Rush Limbaugh calling him overrated because "the media wanted to see a black quarterback succeed," Terrell Owens, the repercussions of throwing up on the sidelines during Super Bowl XXXIX (or trying to set the record straight that he didn't), Terrell Owens, admitting that he didn't know that games in the NFL could end in a tie, getting benched last season, and now Vick. Every step of the way McNabb has let it run off his shoulders and went back onto the field. And won. Also, the Eagles' long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson died of cancer earlier this year. He was beloved by the Eagles' defense--and they had the 3rd best defense in the NFL last year. I'm predicting not much to change schematically, but expect inspired play by the defense in their coach's honor. You've got the makings of a superb season for the Eagles.
Predicted record: 13-3 (#1 seed)
Wouldn't surprise me if: Philadelphia beat Dallas in Week 17 for the 2nd year in a row--clinching the #1 seed and eliminating the Cowboys from playoff contention.

New York Giants

This is the year that we might see exactly what we have with Eli Manning. The reason? He has no Jeremy Shockey or Plaxico Burress on the team. No high profile receiver who--although incredibly talented--needs and demands the lion's share of the catches. Can Manning be Tom Brady, circa 2001? A solid quarterback no matter who is on the field? Or will he turn into Rex Grossman? Manning's accuracy (or lack thereof) is what is most telling. Manning completed over 60% of his passes for the first time last season, but his career passer rating of 76.1 puts him at 27th on the active quarterbacks list. 27th! The defense should be phenomenal again, as the Giants have built a solid core from the ground up. Sure, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo left to be the head coach of St. Louis, but new coordinator Bill Sheridan has a lot to work with (and was linebackers coach under Spagnuolo and head coach Tom Coughlin). I think the Giants can get by one more season without a huge improvement from Manning, but after that there could be trouble in Jersey.
Predicted record: 12-4 (Wild Card)
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Giants win the 2nd most games in the NFC but end up a Wild Card.

Washington

For the first time in a long time, owner Daniel Snyder's treatment of his real-life football team like a fantasy football team is starting to look good. Between adding the best defensive player on the planet (Albert Haynesworth) and drafting a stud in the first round (Brian Orakpo), last year's 4th-ranked defense should be even better this year. If the offense could just put it together, the Redskins could be scary good. But the offense is incredibly inconsistent, and I don't see that changing any time soon even though quarterback Jason Campbell has his moments and running back Clinton Portis can be all-world. At the end of the day Campbell is not an elite quarterback and Portis has to carry too much of the load.
Predicted record: 9-7
Wouldn't surprise me if: Daniel Snyder fires head coach Jim Zorn during the season in preparation of replacing him with Mike Shanahan in the offseason.

Dallas

No more Terrell Owens. That's good for the Cowboys' headaches. But who is going to replace T.O.'s 1,052 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns? And how much longer can head coach Wade Phillips do his job semi-effectively when he knows his walking papers are already typed up and awaiting the signature of owner Jerry Jones? Now that the new billion-dollar stadium is complete, Jones is not going to tolerate a team that can't get it done when it counts much longer. One more December collapse (Dallas is 18-28 from December onward this decade but have a winning record from September through November) and there will be a new sheriff in town in Dallas.
Predicted record: 8-8
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Cowboys start 8-3 only to lose their final 5 games (@NYG, SD, @NO, @Was, Phi).

NFC West

Seattle

Instead of a game day program, the 2008 Seahawks PR department should have helped draft the new health care legislation. The Seattle offense suffered catastrophic injury after catastrophic injury--and then Week 3 arrived and things got worse. Instead of a farewell tour for outgoing head coach Mike Holgren, the Seahawks were a M.A.S.H. unit that couldn't wait for the season to end. Seattle has added wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh to an offense that--when healthy--is dangerous. And for all of their injury troubles last year, Seattle lost 4 games by 3 points or less. Taking over as head coach is Jim Mora (the younger), who was the Seahawks' defensive coordinator the last two seasons and led the 2004 Falcons to the NFC Championship Game in his first season as head coach. The second time around is often the charm for new head coaches--could Mora's history repeat itself as he leads his second different team to the NFC Championship Game in his first season as head coach?
Predicted record: 12-4 (#2 seed)
Wouldn't surprise me if: Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck makes his 4th Pro Bowl--he's been selected every other year starting in 2003.

St. Louis

The Rams were really, really bad last year. They opened the season losing 4 straight by the total score of 147-43. After miraculously winning back-to-back games, the Rams lost their final 8 games, scoring more than 20 just once while allowing 31 or more points 5 times. How is it possible that this team could rebound this year? A new head coach (former Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo), a rebuilt defense, and lots of running back Steven Jackson on offense. And if Marc Bulger's pinkies are fine, lots of Bulger. They won't make the playoffs but they will come closer than a lot of people expect.
Predicted record: 8-8
Wouldn't surprise me if: Steven Jackson leads the NFC in rushing.

Arizona

In some respects the playoff run was one of the worst things that could have happened to the Cardinals--it validated their laidback attitude toward regular season games. Remember the trips east against the Jets (56-35 loss), Eagles (48-20 loss), and Patriots (47-7 loss)? If they don't end up with a four-game lead with six to play as they did last year, can this team flip the switch for the stretch run like they did in the playoffs? I don't think so. Add in the suspect defense, Kurt Warner's health (he's played 30 games in the last two years, got hit a ton, and is now 38 years old), the loss of both coordinators, and the "losing Super Bowl team" phenomenon, and it looks to be a disappointing season for the Cardinals.
Predicted record: 7-9
Wouldn't surprise me if: Matt Leinart is playing quarterback by mid-season, and he shows everyone the reason he isn't starting ahead of Warner.

San Francisco

I like head coach Mike Singletary. I think a lot of people do. Fans love when really good players become coaches, because it extends their careers in our minds. Unfortunately, most good players do not become good coaches. And Singletary might not be around long enough to find out if he has the goods or not. Let's look at this season realistically: after opening @Arz, Sea, @Min, the 49ers are probably going to be 0-3. And just like most NFL teams that start 0-3, the playoffs will be out of reach already. And just like every other team that is under .500 year after year, an 0-3 start would lead to in-fighting and more losing. Again. And even if San Francisco can actually start the season on a better note, their mid-season 6-game stretch (@Ind, Ten, Chi, @GB, Jax, @Sea) seems impossible to overcome.
Predicted record: 2-14
Wouldn't surprise me if: The 49ers head into their Week 16 match-up against Detroit looking for their first win of the season.

NFC South

New Orleans

I'd like to introduce the 2008 Saints to the Air Coryell Chargers (1981, 1982, and 1985 editions) and year 2 of the Greatest Show on Turf Rams (2000). They are your predecessors. Like you, they had the #1 offense in the NFL but the 23rd (or worse) defense. Only one of these teams went .500 (the '85 Chargers) while the others made the playoffs with records of 10-6 ('81 Chargers and 2000 Rams) and 6-3 ('82 Chargers, strike year). You could also check in with some of the recent Colts seasons for perspective. What am I driving at? There's no reason to think this Saints team--with their incredible passing offense and woeful defense--couldn't turn the defense up even a little and make the playoffs. Even if the defense were average at best, the Saints will win 10 or 11 games with last year's offense. By virtue of their 4th place finish in the division, the Saints get to play Detroit while everyone else in the division doesn't, so that's one extra win right there. Someone has to go worst-to-first, so why not the Saints?
Predicted record: 11-5 (#3 seed)
Wouldn't surprise me if: Drew Brees flirts with 5,000 yards passing again.

Carolina

Everyone is going to focus on quarterback Jake Delhomme's miserable playoff performance against Arizona (5 INTs, 1 fumble) and wonder if Delhomme can still get it done. But up until that game, Delhomme had only thrown 12 interceptions all season. Granted, the Panthers focused completely on the run last season so Jake didn't have to throw much, but when he did he had two main targets: Steve Smith (78 catches, 1,421 yards) and Muhsin Muhammad (65 catches, 923 yards)--no other Panthers receiver had more than 22 catches or 202 yards. Any quarterback that gets 2,353 yards from his running backs and 2,344 yards from his top two wide receivers is going to have a decent season, which is what Delhomme had. Considering Carolina is returning almost the exact same team as last year, there's no reason--other than the topsy-turvy nature of the NFC South--to think that Carolina can't repeat last year's regular season. Except that the Panthers overachieved a bit last year. Carolina went 5-0 in games decided by 4 points or less. In games in which one play either way could decide the outcome, the Panthers won all five of them? Is that luck or skill? Probably a little of both, but if you take 2 or 3 wins away from their 12 last year, you end up with a very similar regular season (except for wins).
Predicted record: 9-7
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Carolina-New Orleans match-up in Week 17 is for the division crown.

Atlanta

History is not on the Falcons' side. First of all, the Falcons' franchise has never put together back-to-back winning seasons. That's 47 seasons of non-back-to-back winners. Second, since 1978, 15 teams won 7+ more games than the previous year. 13 of those teams won 3+ fewer the next season. Only the 1981 Lions (-1) and 1998 Jets (+3) bucked the trend. I know these Falcons appear as if they could be another team to buck the trend. Between quarterback Matt Ryan's incredible rookie season, the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez, and an organization finally headed in the right direction, the Falcons can stay the course right? I think two years from now we'll be talking about a Falcons team that is on the verge of a superb season. But this year they will take a small step backwards. Especially since four of last year's wins came against Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland, and St. Louis (who combined to go 9-55). This year might be a little tougher. Following their back-to-back byes (I'm counting @SF as a bye) they have the following: Chi, @Dal, @NO, Was, @Car, @NYG, TB, PHI, NO, @NYJ. A 5-5 record during that stretch would be miraculous. And I didn't even mention @NE in Week 3 and @TB in Week 17.
Predicted record: 7-9
Wouldn't surprise me if: Matt Ryan has a sophomore slump in season #2.

Tampa Bay

Many people are high on the Bucs this year, and a lot of it probably has to do with their new head coach, Raheem Morris. But Tampa is installing a new defense (with new defensive coordinator Jim Bates, late of the 32nd-ranked Denver Broncos defense last season), a new offense, and pretty much a new everything. Oh and the Bucs fired offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski one week before the season started. Why exactly are people high on Tampa Bay again?
Predicted record: 5-11
Wouldn't surprise me if: Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman sees the field by Week 6 (either because Byron Leftwich can't go or is ineffective).

NFC North

Chicago

Jay Cutler is clearly an upgrade over Kyle Orton at quarterback. But the question is--can he be as good as he was in Denver with a worse offensive line and suspect wide receivers? Also, can the Bears' defense be as good as they used to be? Orlando Pace would have been a good addition to the offensive line--if it were 2005, the last time Pace played in all 16 games and made the Pro Bowl. Now? Probably not the best option. The Bears have won before with a solid defense and a horrible offense. This year they look like they're going to win with a solid defense and a really good quarterback and a really good running back trying to run a pretty good offense. It should be good enough to win the NFC North--but just barely.
Predicted record: 10-6 (#4 seed)
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Bears finish with a 5-game winning streak (STL, GB, @Bal, Min, @Det). It also wouldn't surprise me if the December 28 night game at home against Minnesota features a Brett Favre meltdown for the Vikings.

Minnesota

The fact that the Vikings won 10 games last year is impressive. Minnesota posted a -6 in turnovers for the season (turning the ball over 6 more times than they forced turnovers). 9 other teams posted a -5 or worse and they averaged 5.5 wins. (Conversely, teams that were a +5 or better for the season averaged 9.2 wins.) High turnover numbers cost teams games. In 6 games last year, the Vikings posted a -2 or worse in turnovers. Amazingly, they won 3 of those games (2 against Detroit (-2 in both) and 1 against Green Bay (-3)), and lost 2 of them by just 7 points even though they were -4 in turnovers in each game (against Chicago and Atlanta). What all of this means is that if the Vikings' defense is as stout as it was last year and they take care of the ball more on offense, they should win more games. Which, of course, brings us to their new quarterback, Brett Favre, who threw 21 interceptions last season--4 more than the Vikings' starting quarterbacks combined. Not exactly what the doctor ordered if they're trying to keep the turnovers down on offense. On a game-to-game basis, Favre's addition is negligible. Don't believe me? Below is a chart showing Favre's stats vs. Tarvaris Jackson or Gus Ferotte's stats in the same week last year. I've included only games in which one team won and the other lost (except for the Vikings' game against the Lions--clearly anyone could have quarterbacked teams to a win over the Lions):

All things being equal, Favre at quarterback would have meant 3 more wins for the Vikings. But it also would have meant 3 more losses for the Vikings, giving Minnesota the same record with or without Favre. So taking the Favre factor out of the equation, we have the same thing we had last year: a solid defense and a questionable offense.
Predicted record: 10-6 (Wild Card)
Wouldn't surprise me if: Favre has another December swoon and the Vikings lose 4 of their last 5 games--but make the playoffs anyway.

Green Bay

I don't trust this Packers team. Aaron Rodgers is probably going to be a fine quarterback, but not elite. Mike McCarthy is an OK coach, but he's not going to be a difference-maker. Ryan Grant is a nice running back, but no one's confusing him with Adrian Peterson. Plus with new defensive coordinator Dom Capers on board installing a new 3-4 defense, there could be a bit of a learning curve.
Predicted record: 7-9
Wouldn't surprise me if: Packers fans boo Brett Favre upon his return on November 1. It also wouldn't surprise me if Packers fans boo Aaron Rodgers as he faces the Vikings' defense the same night.

Detroit

General manager Matt Millen was mercifully put out to pasture (or NBC as it were). Head coach Rod Marinelli was shown the door. 25 of the players from last year's opening day roster are gone. And, let's not forget, the Lions changed their uniform design and their logo--the logo is now "an angrier lion." That's got to be worth a couple wins, right?
Predicted record: 5-11
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Lions' losing streak ends against an unexpected opponent--the Steelers, perhaps (Pittsburgh faces Detroit in a sandwich game--one week after a tough San Diego team but before rival Cleveland).