Midnight has struck for the Cinderalla story of the 2009-10 Montreal Canadiens.
After barely qualifying for the 2010 playoffs, then upsetting the President’s Trophy-winning Washington Capitals and the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins, the Canadiens fell in five games to the Philadelphia Flyers – themselves an underdog team – in the Eastern Conference Final.
The Habs saved their season with their surprising post-season success but their lack of offensive production and skilled size at forward were exploited by the determined Flyers, particularly their defense corps.
Heading into the off-season the Canadiens have $45.7 million committed to 14 players next season, which leaves them perhaps $13 million to re-sign several key free agents and look at addressing their dire need for big offensive forwards.
Their most notable unrestricted free agents include Tomas Plekanec, Dominic Moore, Glen Metropolit and Marc-Andre Bergeron.
It’s believed Plekanec will be re-signed but doing so could cost up to $5 million per season, which would eat up nearly half of their available cap space.
Moore played well after joining the Habs in a pre-Olympic break trade and depending on his asking price could also be retained. Metropolit, Bergeron and Paul Mara probably won’t be back.
Among their key restricted free agents are goalies Jaroslav Halak and Carey Price plus forwards Maxim Lapierre, Sergei Kostitsyn, Benoit Pouliot and Tom Pyatt.
The biggest guessing game in Montreal has been deciding whether the Habs should retain Halak or Price.
Halak took over the starter’s role this season from Price and was the key reason the Habs made the playoffs and marched to the Eastern Conference Final. Yet Price is still considered by some experts a future star which has some folks believing it would be a mistake to move him.
Lapierre proved his worth as an agitator this year and should earn a new contract, while Pyatt, who was an after-thought in the trade last summer which brought Scott Gomez from the NY Rangers to Montreal, also likely earned a new contract with his solid playoff performance.
Pouliot had a good regular season after joining the Habs in an early-season trade from Minnesota but his play deteriorated in the post-season and his ice time was drastically slashed. They might keep him around for another season at perhaps $1 million to evaluate him in hopes Pouliot can round into a consistent scorer.
Sergei Kostitsyn meanwhile was a huge disappointment for the Habs this season and is expected to sign with a KHL team this summer. He won’t be back.
It appears Halak has earned himself a nice raise and cemented the starter’s job with the Habs, but depending on how much he gets (perhaps in the neighborhood of $3 million per season) his new salary combined with Plekanec’s would leave the Canadiens with probably less than $5 million of available space, precious little to re-sign other key players, let alone bid competitively for scoring depth in this summer’s UFA market.
Should Halak be re-signed the question then becomes whether to re-sign Price or shop him.
General manager Pierre Gauthier, who took over for Bob Gainey at mid-season, faces a difficult task finding enough cap space to improve the Habs.
He could consider peddling some players, like perhaps the under-achieving Andrei Kostitsyn, who has one year at $3.25 million left on his contract, or perhaps veteran Roman Hamrlik, who has one year at $5.5 million left.
Good luck however finding takers for those guys. Kostitsyn might be bundled with another, more attractive player (Price?) but that’s a stretch, while Hamrlik has a limited NTC for next season although his salary would also prevent a trade.
Buyouts of those two might be a better option as it would free up over $6.3 million in cap space this summer but of course it remains to be seen if Gauthier goes that route.
One player who certainly will be bought out is enforcer Georges Laraque, who left the team at mid-season and has another season at $1.5 million left on his contract. Buying him out frees up another $1 million for next season.
Another concern is the future plans of long-time Habs defenseman Andrei Markov, who’s been their best player in recent years but is a UFA next summer.
Gauthier might contact Markov to determine if he wants to remain a Hab beyond next season. If he does it could cost up to $7 million per season starting in 2011-12 to retain him, which could prove too rich for the Habs blood.
If Markov decides he’d like to test next summer’s market Gauthier then faces a difficult decision: retain Markov for one more season and lose him next summer for nothing, or shop him this summer in hopes of addressing his other needs.
Until recently that move might’ve been considered sacrilege to Canadiens fans but the emergence of promising young blueliner P.K. Subban in this year’s playoffs gives the Habs a potential replacement for Markov if Gauthier decides to move him.
Ultimately Gauthier’s biggest choice could be between Halak and Price, and with the former’s performance this season the latter could end up shopped, maybe even packaged with another player or a top prospect or draft pick, for a big scoring forward.
This year’s surprising playoff performance could be something for the Canadiens to build upon but it’s not going to be an easy task.
Cap constraints could force the Wings to re-sign Bertuzzi instead of Holmstrom, and I do think that Holmstrom would be a good fit for the Habs. Don't forget, though, there are no other Swedes on the Canadiens, and that may be a factor in where Holmstrom ends up (can we say Vancouver, anyone?).
AtmaWeaponI can also see Price potentially going to the Red Wings, but I don't see a good fit for a return in that trade that would work for both teams.
The Panthers may be a good fit if they decide to part ways with Vokoun, and if packaged with another player, Nathan Horton may make a fair return. Bigger than Plekanec, and at a 4mil/year cap hit, he might be more affordable.
I could also see him going closer to home in Edmonton in return for a player like Dustin Penner. If dumping salary is indeed in the books for the Habs, they may be able to pull off a deal like Kostitsyn and Price for Penner and Drouin-Deslauriers.
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