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Tide Turning Against Hurricanes?
Friday, June 16, 2006, 09:02 AM EST
[Stanley Cup Final]
That's been the suggestion raised by a few pundits following the Edmonton Oilers OT victory over the Carolina Hurricanes in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Final.
Undoubtedly the Hurricanes best chance to put away the Oilers was Game Five. The Oilers went into that game having put up a lackluster performance in the final period and a half of Game Four, which cast a pall of gloom over Oilers fans and the Edmonton media. Most observers had written them off, believing the Oilers players had subconsciously given up even though they made brave statements to the contrary leading up to the fifth game.
But expectations were high for the Hurricanes players heading into Game Five. The media had all but crowned them Stanley Cup champions. The Raleigh City Council were debating where to hold the Stanley Cup parade. Hurricanes fans expected their team to win the big mug in that game and were jazzed up for a celebration.
It's easy to write off as cliches that the Cup clinching game is the toughest to win and that all the pressure falls on the team with the "three games to...." lead to win that game, but in Game Five, those cliches turned into reality.
So has the momentum shifted in favour of the Oilers?
True, the Hurricanes still hold the hammer heading into Game Six, leading the series 3-2. They're away from the pressure and distractions of home ice and the expectation to win it there.
It's easy to suggest the Oilers now face more pressure to win Game Six at home to stay alive than the Hurricanes to clinch the Cup.
The difference,however, is the sense of relief the Oilers obviously felt in their Game Five victory. It was evident in their faces following the game. Yes, those players were happy to have won to stay alive but there was genuine relief.
There's more pressure to stay alive down 3-1, and having narrowed the margin to 3-2, the Oilers now believe strongly they have a chance, a good chance now, to win and force a seventh game.
As for home town pressure for the Oilers, it won't be the same compared to what the 'Canes must've felt in Game Five.
Given the Hurricanes 3-2 edge, Edmonton fans don't expect their club to win the Cup in Game Six. They're happy their club is still alive for another game. They just want their team to stay alive for one more game after Saturday.
If the Oilers now believe they have a chance to force a seventh game, so do their fans, and that'll be a shared experienced for players and fans. It's a fight for survival with the odds now having improved, and the outpouring of love and devotion from the Edmonton fans should buoy the Oilers.
The Oilers strong performance in Game Five could provide motivation to step up their play in Game Six. The Oilers dominated the Hurricanes at certain stretches of Game Five and will obviously look to build on that for Game Six.
Psychologically, the Oilers may now believe they can come back to win this game. By not putting away the Oilers in Game Five, the Hurricanes might be starting to question themselves.
Of course, this is only speculation on my part. The Hurricanes could be mentally prepared to blow into Edmonton, crush the Oilers and win the Cup.
There are, however, a few real issues that could have an impact in shifting momentum away from the Hurricanes.
First, the most obvious, the injuries to Doug Weight and Aaron Ward. It's believed both have suffered seperated shoulders and if true they won't be back for Game Six or a possible Game Seven.
Weight's absence will have an impact on the 'Canes offence, but their depth up front should allow them to compensate. The loss of Ward, however, could potentially be devastating. He's been their top shot blocker, best defensive blueliner and a leader of the Hurricanes defence corps.
There's also speculation that Bret Hedican, who's logged a lot of minutes for the 'Canes, might also be nursing an undisclosed injury.
The injury bug bit the Hurricanes opponents throughout their playoff run (but is no excuse for why they've gotten this far) while they emerged virtually unscathed but it may now be catching up to Carolina at the worst possible time.
That would be attributable to the Oilers stepping up their checking game, especially in Game Five, a trait that was absent earlier in this season. With Ward and Weight now potentially out for Game Six, that could inspire the Oilers to extract a further physical toll on the 'Canes. That doesn't mean they'll come out playing dirty and deliberately intending to injury Carolina players, but it does mean the Hurricanes could pay a steep physical price every time they touch the puck in Game Six.
One reason for the Oilers relief in Game Five was finally potting a powerplay goal, courtesy of Ales Hemsky, which tied the game at 2 in the first period, blunted any momentum the 'Canes had built after going up 2-1 and changed the course of the game.
That may give the Oilers the incentive to shoot more and get more lateral movement going in their passing game with the man advantage,which has been missing from their game throughout most of this series.
After Dwayne Roloson went down to injury in Game One, the Oilers seemed to tighten up more in Games Two, Three and Four, seemingly unwilling to push their attack as they'd previously done with Roloson in goal.
It may be that the Oilers may have felt they needed to be more responsible defensively with Jussi Markkanen in goal, but it seemed that after Markkanen played very well in Games Three and Four, the Oilers now have more confidence that he'll be there to make the big saves and can open up again offensively. That certainly appeared to be the case in Game Five, which appeared to surprise the Hurricanes.
Finally, it should be noted the Oilers got three of their four goals in Game Five by shooting high on Hurricanes netminder Cam Ward. That doesn't mean Ward is weak on high shots, but throughout the playoffs he hasn't had to face as many high shots as he has low shots.
Ward has done an outstanding job taking away the bottom half of the net, where he's proven practically unbeatable, but the Oilers striking high on him in Game Five suggests they're likely to go that route again in Game Six.
Nothing is set in stone here. The Hurricanes still hold the advantage heading into Game Six, but it's obvious things could be shifting back to the Oilers favour.
For the Hurricanes to win Game Six, they'll need to get to Markkanen early to take the Edmonton fans out of the game, play the smart defensive game as in Game Four, use their offensive depth to their advantage (especially on the powerplay where they hold a distinct advantage), and for Cam Ward to bounce back as he has so often in this year's playoffs with a strong performance.
Yes, it's a must-win game for the Oilers. Lose and they have to watch the Hurricanes parade around with the Stanley Cup at Rexall Place.
But this is a bigger must-win for the Hurricanes. Win and Cup glory is theirs. Lose, however, and they'll not only face a seventh game against a fired-up Oilers team, but will also have to battle growing self doubt heading back home.
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