Michelle Wie is a phenomenal talent.  If any woman should be allowed an exemption to play on the men's tour, certainly she should qualify on the length of her drives.  The problem with Michelle Wie, as I see it, is that she will never win a significant amount of tournaments to go into the LPGA hall of fame much less be remembered as a great golfer.  She will be remembered as the teen golfing sensation that signed a lucrative endorsement deal with Sony and Nike but then fizzled after repeated attempts to win on the men's tour.  Here are 5 reasons in no particular order that I believe will make this all come true:

1. Michelle Wie is not a winner; Tiger is.  The simple truth is that Michelle Wie has never really won anything.  Oh, she won the pub links amateur once, but since then what has she won.  Tiger won on every venue he could before going on to become a pro.  He won the US Junior Amateur three times, the US Amateur three times, and finished with the NCAA title before turning pro.  Do you think Tiger could have gotten exemptions to play on the PGA tour like Wie is doing now when he was 15 or 16.  Of course he could, but learning to win on your own level is more important.  After winning on the college level, ten times, at the age of 20 he become a professional, but not before he was a proven winner.  Winning breeds winning.  Losing, well, that breeds losing also.  If Wie continues to compete against those that are far better than her, she will never feel the thrill of victory and get a taste as well as the experience she needs to mount a charge on a Sunday or hold on to a lead.  For everyone who wants to compare the two, you cannot.  They do not have the same approach to winning.
2. B.J. Wie:  Tiger had Earl who instilled a love for the game in Tiger early.  He also instilled discipline and many other wonderful virtues that are evident in Tiger's Foundation.  By the way, I am not a huge Tiger fan, but there is no comparison between the ways that Earl has raised his son to the way B.J. is raising Michelle.  Earl hired the best caddies for Tiger and got out of the way.  B.J. has been on the bag and clearly has no respect for other players.
3. The endorsements will dry up if Wie doesn't win.  Tiger signed a 60 million deal with Nike when he turned pro.  Wie signed a 4-5 million dollar deal with the same company.  A lot of money for sure for someone who has never really won an official PGA or LPGA tournament, or Asian tour, or Nationwide tour, or any tour that Wie has played on.  I repeat, she has gone to all of these men's tours, even the ones where it is the B and C caliber professional and lost.  Wie will continue to get invites over the next few years, but as her novelty wears thin, she will lose those invitations and the endorsements will stop.
4. Commitment to one tour:  Wie needs to commit to one tour.  Winning on the PGA Tour is hard enough for the likes of Tiger.  Today the talent level on the men's tour is only getting better.  Winning on the LPGA is also harder.  Granted Annika makes it look easy, but after Annika there are the new kids on the block like Paula Creamer and all of the Park girls.  The Koreans are taking the women's tour by storm and if Wie wants to win there, which is where she should be playing as a professional, but that is for the next post on Wie.
5. Hormones:  Wie will eventually meet someone and get sidetracked with love.  It happens to the men on the tour as well, and most of them have a drop-off in performance for a year or two until they get refocused to their craft, Tiger excluded.  Wie is still very young and once the hormones kick in she will be dealing with all kinds of emotional issues besides her overbearing father and a lack of winning. 

Well, that is it for Michelle Wie for now.  Look for the next post on my blog titled "Wie has it Wong or is it Wrong."  Add your thoughts.