I was almost ready to give up this blog to my son, "Son of Snorky," (who began his own blog on realsportsblogs but hasn't actually posted anything, so I may take that one over!), due to back injury, or rather, a lotta bit of arthritis mixed with a bit of osteoporosis...yeh, yeh, yeh, you men here don't wanna hear about it! So what the heck, it was too much you know what in the wrong position!

And, oh yeah, the Dolphins losing so horribly to the Ravens four weeks ago! I thought I was going to DIE! Now I can take losing by one point to the Texans--whom they have never beaten, so what else is new? But when it is a team the Fins have pretty much owned (except for a playoff loss), and when it is an improving pass defense against the rookie Flacco, and one of the best AFC defenses against the wonder of the Wildcat--well, the Fins couldn't lose, right? BUT THEY DID AND THEY DID HORRIBLY, so I thought I was going to die, and in an apoplectic fit of anger I guess I did a number on my sacri-iliac! No you know what that night! I had a headache!

Nor did it help the (as I expected) the Fins demolished the Bills the following week, reigned in the horses the week after that, and this past Sunday managed to survive a weak Seattle team. This brought me back to this blog! It was vitally important that Miami beat a weak team. Funny how a rebuilding, up and coming team finds a way to beat the "big boys" (Pats, Chargers, Broncos) but always struggles against teams that look (in the win-loss column) like losers (Texans, Seahawks). But they held off against Seattle (with Yeremiah Bell redeeming himself after letting Texan QB Schaub run it into the endzone in that one-point loss), and with a remaining schedule that mostly includes weaklings (like the Niners, Rams, Raiders and Chiefs) as well as their division rivals, the Fins had to prove to me that they could beat these kinds of teams, no matter which way.

So now we have the AFC East in a bind, with the Jets and Pats at 6-3 and the Fins and Bills at 5-4. Wha haappen to the Bills? According to most experts, it is the fact that beginning with the loss to Miami in week 8, then the Jets in week 9 and the Pats this past week, the problem for the Buffalos is that Edwards can't read a 3-4 defense. If that is indeed the cast, then the Bills are out of it...they have the Fins, Jets and Pats pretty much in the crucial final four weeks. One can assume that the Fins, Jets, and Pats will all still be in the running at that point, so the Bills will have to rely on the old reliables of home field (particularly against the warm weather Fins...one day soon I am going to rant on why the NFL insisted on keeping the Dolphins in the same division with three cold weather teams, and it doesn't get much colder than Buffalo in the late fall/winter!), and that they have played spoiler on the Jets since almost forever. Which could mean---guess what, all you Pats doubters!---Snorky was right to say several weeks ago that counting out the Bradyless bunch was a bad idea.

Now some might claim I made up that headline, "Go Pats" to flip off Jets fans and get Josh Q. Public to notice me. Josh Q WHO? But anyway, I still do not like the Patriots and probably never will as long as Bellichick is their coach. And I can still say I might be a Jets fan today had the Jets been able to ride their AFL success into the AFC in 1970 instead of cave to the newcomer Colts and upcomer Dolphins that year. But instead, Sonny Werblin sold the team to incompetents, and the Jets have been incompetent on and off since then. (It is one thing for the Fins post-Joe Robbie ownership to have gone downhill under Huizinga, who really is one of the worst sports franchise owners out there...I mean, look at the Marlins! and it is one thing for the Fins coaching to have been really lousy for the last 7 years or so. It is clear now that Hiuzinga is letting the football pros run the team now, Parcells and Co in the front office and Sparano and Co on the field, with good results so far. It is another thing for the Jets to have not even been close to a Super Bowl IN FORTY YEARS!!!)

And therein lies the edge to the Pats. As much as one cannot stand Bellichick, as much as one can downgrade Matt Cassel, as much as one can say that new runner of theirs won't make up for the ones who are injured, and as banged up as the Pats defense is, the Pats did not let their at home crushing by the Dolphins get ot them. The Pats--as so many had hoped--did NOT go away, did not let losing Brady get ot them, and did not let their fans get them down. As much as I can't stand the Pats, I gotta say this is definitely the team that has dominated the 2000s, that knows how to win when it counts and can come back to the point where (besides the Titans) has the best shot at winning the AFC! Besides Favre, Thomas Jones, and Ty Law (again!), what do the Jets have? So what if they clobbered the hapless Rams? As far as I am concerned, that game says more about the Jets lack of moral fiber than anything else (you know, like the Pats lack of moral fiber everytime they annihilated the Fins last year!)

Now don't take that "GO PATS" headline to mean I am actually rooting for the Pats. Perish the thought! It is just that the Jets are favored and I'm sorry, if Favre has a bad game, and he might because the Pats really are inspired (and not looking ahead to that rematch in Miami against a true nemesis, who outside of last year has always beaten the Pats at least once a season), the Jets won't win, period, no matter what Tom Jones does.

And don't look for anymore "Stupid Female Picks" because obviously my record so far is embarassing and I don't even want to think about it!

A note to Bolt Back 21: don't give up, the Chargers are still going to win the AFC West. Good golly, the Broncos surely don't deserve to!

This week I'm just gonna list my picks with no explanations...after last weeks's 6 - 8, I have to agree with slshusker...my picks deserved no respect! Rams over Skins?? Browns over Giants?? Jags over Broncos???  And kudoos to that Cards fan who lambasted my Cowboys pick!

Bills over Chargers (Because it's in Buffalo and their QB is back)

Panthers over Saints

Bears over Vikes

Steelers over Bungles

Titans over Chiefs

Dolphins over Ravens

Giants over Niners

Cowboys over Rams

Texans over Lions

Colts over Packers

Jets over Raiders

Skins over Browns

Bucs over Seahawks

Broncos over Pats (good golly I picked the Broncs again??? But it is funny how it seems when the Chargers lose the Broncos win, and vice versa...but what if Bills lose? Pats might regain some incentive.)

Should that be the Sports Page Headline in the Miami Herald this morning?...Not really, because, well, some here might think it's "the curse" but I beg to differ...Houston's not-so-unlikely last minute win over Miami was not only not simply a curse but just a bit better football for just a bit longer. I would like to have seen the face of Ronnie "slinging arrows" Brown when Matt Schaub ran that ball into the endzone--the same way the Fins D refused to let LT run it in last week!

So the Texans--as I said a few days ago who are NOT the 0-4 team their record indicates--and, as some other blogger said (who picked the Texans) that the Dolphins and Texans were like mirror images of each other--young, aggressive teams which tend to do well against the run (which, Brown's stats being noted on the game...I don't recall the Texans leading rusher...were not thast great)--won by just being a little more aggressive yesterday, 29-28...a win not unlike the other three times the Texans beat the Fins...three points or less! And because Matt Schaub, unlike Matt Cassel and Phil Rivers, exposed the weaknesses of the Dolphins defense backfield for a huge amount of yardage.

I am sad the Fins lost after such stellar efforts against Pats and Chargers...but I am also glad the Texans, a fairly decent team after all (but for the stupid play of Rosenfels--get rid of him, Texans!), are no longer winless because they shouldn't have been in the first place! Good for you all, Texans! Now go out next week and whoop it up against the hopeless Lions. Just don't get smug the way the Fins did!

THAT'S RIGHT, DOLPHINS...YOU GOT SMUG! STUPID, STUPID...YOU BEAT THE PATS AND CHARGERS, KNOWN TO BE GOOD TEAMS, AND NOW YOU THINK BECAUSE YOU'RE AHEAD LATE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER (AGAINST A QB THAT APPARENTLY TOOK YOUR PASS DEFENSE APART ALL DAY, NO LESS) YOU CAN GO OUT AND CELEBRATE AT 28-23??? AND NOW YOU HAVE PAID FOR IT! WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT???

You are going to go out next Sunday and beat the Ravens at home, that's what! And you don't even need an Peyton Manning to do it. Neither the Texans, nor the Bolts nor Pats, really stopped the Wildcat, so use it, and since "everybody knows" you can't run on the Ravens, do it anyway, because they can't stop the pass. And you pass rushers (Porter had another good day in Reliant Stadium) and especially you secondary folks, Flacco is a rookie, okay? A pretty good rookie (or else he wouldn't be starting) but a rookie nevertheless who couldn't do squat against a Colts defense that IMHO is outshined by the Fins anyway. You know what you have to do.

And the Sunday after that, you are going to beat the Bills at home.

And onto my other stupid picks...

Good golly Miss Molly! the Rams beat the Redskins--in Washington! Only one or two of the bolder bloggers picked the "hapless" Rams, and they did it by doing something no one else has been able to do to the Skins--force turnovers, and they--like 4 or 5 other teams--did it in the closing seconds (in fact time had expired). HOORAY FOR THE RAMS!

Thus the Rams and Texans have won their first games this year, and good for them. Don't like to see winless teams.

Well, my pick of the Falcons paid off. Another last second win, and this one makes the NFC North bolluxed up with no one who clearly standout (except the Lions, who just might do what the Fins couldn't and wouldn't do last year, go winless!). So the Bears, who looked at one point like they would easily take this division, are now 3-3. The Vikes, who looked like they really needed more than Frerotte to win with, are now 3-3. The Packers, who have looked either good or bad with Rodgers, are also 3-3. Sorta mediocre, these three, wouldn't you say? Now, look at the NFC South: the Panthers (wha-happen?), the Bucs (thanks you, Mr. Garcia!), and the Falcons (holder of the best rookie QB out there this year) are all 4-2 and the Saints are 3-3. Statistically the NFC East is the strongest division but I'm not buying it.

Panthers! Whaa haapen? Two words: Jeff Garcia. Okay, three more words: home field advantage...the Bucs haven't lost there in a long time. And, oh yeah, you guys were buying into that "the Panthers are playoff bound this year" stuff. As with the Fins, you folks got smug and you paid the price for it. But unlike the Fins you looked bad in losing!

And the Vikes eke out the Lions. And the Saints raid the Raiders. And the Jets buck the Bungles. And Cards clip the Cowboys (and apologies to that Cards fan who walloped my Pokes pick--see comments on previous post--you were right after all about the Cards). And Eagles fly over the Niners, who are apparently sinking fast. And the Packers drown the Seahawks.

Finally, three incredible wins that will reverberate around the league for at least this week.

I had picked the Broncos (I have to keep reminding myself never to pick this height of inconsistency!) over the Jaguars because it was at Mile High. Well, at the end of the day, it was the Cutler kids who needed air. Nice going, Jags! You needed the win with the Colts winning as well as Texans, and you did it! Have a nice week off.

I had picked the Colts, but figured it'll go either way anyway. WRONG! Peyton is back. The Colts D appears to be back. That momentum they built up against Texans in the last quarter last week carried through...what happened to the Ravens, another team that looked promising at the beginning of the year, have lost three straight now and have not looked too bad doing it (looked okay vs. Steelers and didn't look too bad vs. Titans, but what happened to that highly ranked defense??). Seems the Colts have rediscovered they are a good team after all.

And now we come to Chargers-Patriots, with the Bolts belting Bellichick's crew in a 30-10 win that took some of the sting off the Texans win over my aqua-orange boys. This puts the Chargers only one game behind the feckless horses...and they go to Buffalo next week (good luck...or will the Bills be looking ahead to Fins?) while Pats have the Broncs. Meanwhile, the Jets (who seem to have the easiest schedule in the NFL...why is it they always seem to have teams they can beat...Brett Favre, maybe?) and Pats are both at 3-2! the Bills are 4-1 and the Fins are 2-3, which means this now "not least" division is still up for grabs as only two games separate top from bottom. That is not something that happens too often. And kuddos to the Bolts, who clearly got the revenge they wanted...but what's gonna happen if they meet the Pats in the playoffs?

Remember bakc to the 70s and the Steelers-Raiders? This matchup seems similar.

As a response comment to last week's Stupid Female Picks, another blogger wrote something like this: "scan in your Las Vegas Betting Ticket to me and then I will show your picks some respect."

Well, you can keep that "respect" buddy! I DO THIS FOR FUN! Further, I don't need to get into my Football betting history which goes back to the early 70s, and, actually, even before that when I used to help my dad make office betting pool picks. But I have won enough and lost even more enough to know that "on any given Sunday" is the rule, not the exception that proves it. I mean, the last two weeks...the Broncos DID beat the Bucs even though I said they wouldn't, and the Jets DID beat the Cards the week before that even though I said they wouldn't. And go back and read the first Stupid Female Picks, in which I opened with...

"This is an experiment."

Why? Because though football has changed somewhat--the players are bigger and faster than they used to be, there are more teams than there used to be, and thus the talent gets spread thinner (though there seems to be more of it), and college offenses/defenses have changed somewhat so thus NFL offenses/defenses have had to change somewhat...for example, back in the 60s and 70s nearly every team had a good QB. It seems now colleges aren't making them fast enough, as several of the NFL teams lack a good QB: Detroit, KC, St. Louis, Minnesota (Frerotte's a good back up, not a good starter), Oakland, Houston, and Cleveland. And it seems Miami is only competeitive now because they had the luck of grabbing the Jets' castoff, Pennington, after NY got Brett Favre. The need for a good QB, along with enough offensive and defensive talent is one of the few things that haven't changed. Formations and coaching has changed somewhat, though, and there now seems to be more room for innovation. As I said, "seems." Appearances can be deceiving.

That was why when I started "putting my money where my mouth was" back then I had to have a rational for making picks. I couldn't follow all the teams as much as I would need to, so I subscribed to "Pro Football Weekly" so I could get useful stats so I could say, "So and So's offense can beat Yadda Yadda's defense"--and guess what? "On any given Sunday." Then you have the spread, which is what the betting is based on. Only someone who very closely follows football stats and player to player matchups can (IMHO) beat the spread consistently, and thus win more money than lose. After losing enough money vs the spread (but not straight up), I had to pick my picks judiciously enough to cover the spread as well as pick the winner. So I needed more than pure numbers. This is where momentum, schedule, QB, division rivalry and good old fashioned desire come in.

As I opened last weeks picks, on paper, the Chargers are a better team than the Fins, that is, their QB is better, their receivers are most certainly better, LT is better than Brown at least by reputation (Brown, of course, has been dogged by injuries and inconsistency), and the Bolts defense is generally thought to be better than the Fins' because it consists of reliable veterans. Yet, the Dolphins won, with Porter and company stopping Chambers, then LT, at the goal line, and that innovative Wildcat offense, and Pennington--while not being Favre or Brady or (both) Mannings--has enough arm to well utilize "what may be the NFL's worst receiver corp" (to quote Fox's Marvez, or was it Schein?). And, oh yeah! the Fins just might have one of the NFLs best offensive lines since...that 1972 offensive line? (But that is a stretch; still, who is complaining about their first pick, Jake Long, now??) Finally, the Fins wanted it more last week, they had some momentum left after that delicious Pats win, and the interplay of the Fins "needing" the win over the Chargers need for the win (as they didn't know the Broncos would win later in the day). Besides, they have enough players left from that horrible 2007 team to never ever wnat to go through that again! Thus perhaps the Fins might ALWAYS feel that they "need" the win this year!

Finally, I generally tend to think that my AFC East picks will be more reliable than others' AFC East picks because I generally follow the AFC East more closely (as would any Pats, Fins, Bills or Jets fan). So far, my AFC East picks are 4-1 over two weeks, with the only loss being the Jets win over the Cards. This week, I am picking every single East team to win except the Pats, who play the Chargers. After last weeks win over the Niners, the Pats can afford to "not win"...well, not really, but now the Bolts REALLY NEED TO GET AFTER IT!

Chargers over Patriots

Perhaps Bellichick got all over Matt Cassel during the two week skein with the bye week to get his act together, and perhaps those "old" bodies got a good rest so that when they played the younger Niners they were able to outlast Nolan's crew...and Cassel looked almost as effective as Brady while Moss finally looked like Moss. Further, the interplay again--Miami had just beaten the Bolts while the Bills were getting their buffalo wings clipped by the Cards gave the Pats more motivation (after all, the NFC West IS the NFLs weakest division this year by a long shot...should the Cards falter the Niners might win by default). I had also said (in a comment on another blog) that it was foolhardy to diss the Patriots this early in the season (mostly because the Bills were unbeaten at that point). I was right: both the Bills and the Pats have the same relative records with Bills 4-1 and Pats 3-1. In fact, as the Bills are off (and they need it now big time), one would think the Pats would "need" that win to get themselves a 4-1 matching record, and thus shut up those who have so easily dismissed them. But I do not think this is going to happen. Everyone knows that the Chargers are "struggling". Everyone "knows" that the veteran defense looked "old" against the Sparano's "Wildcat" bunch last week as the Pats had looked two weeks before, so that means the Chargers are going down, right? I suspect that a good dose of the biggest motivating factor in football, revenge, will lift those "old" bodies up to play like young lions again against the team that defeated them in last year's AFC Champ game, and the Chargers, with LT's painful toes and all, will rise to the occasion.

 

Panthers over Bucs

If I was just coming into following the NFL now, this year, and was pre-disposed to root for an NFC team, I would go with the Panthers (there is no west Texas team to root for, and I generally go against the grain anyway, thus I wouldn't root for the Cowboys). This team is HOT. This team is consistent. This team has beaten good teams as well as bad teams. This team has a good QB that has played all season (unlike the Bucs, who have two fairly good QBs). This team has a certain rhythm (which I suspect the Bucs lack, due to QB changes). Everyone talks about the strength of the NFC East, but I think the NFC South is just as competitive (and maybe moreso). Yes, the Bucs "need" this win more, being a game behind the Panthers. Yes, the game is in Tampa Bay. Yes, Garcia is back. But will Garcia fit into the rhythm that the Bucs have developed? Will Garcia be able to develop his own rhythm this week in practice? Since I trust in Carolina's rhythm more than the Bucs, I go with the Panthers.

 

And the rest:

Falcons over Bears: It's in Atlanta, I like Ryan over Orton, and I am very impressed with what the Falcs did in Green Bay last week. I would say any young QB such as Orton could look like a Tom Brady against the not only winless Lions but the hopeless Lions as well, so that, although this game could go either way, I have to make a pick so I pick the Falcons.

Dolphins over Texans: Yes, I know...Miami is coming off a big win over Chargers and the Texans are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Colts. The Texans are NOT the terrible 0-4 team their record indicates, and Schaub is back (maybe), and it's in Houston. AND the Fins have NEVER beaten the Texans (plus the fact that when the Oilers were in Houston, they gave the Dolphins fits, especially in the Earl Campbell era).  I can really understand why several "pickers" are picking the Texans. So here is why I am picking Miami: one, there is a DAMNED GOOD REASON the Texans lost that 17 point lead last week--Sage Rosenfels (the Fins got rid of him for a damned good reason, too), and the fact that whoever had the ball during those fumbles couldn't hang onto it! Even if Schaub plays, will their players be able to keep the ball? Will the Texans coaching staff have a fix for the Wildcat? Will the Texans OL be able to stop one of the leagues best pass rushes? And, oh yeah, the Fins are still in the running but not the Texans.

Colts over Ravens: Just when I thought the Colts were perhaps finished for the year and their defense was yucky they play like one would expect the Colts to play and overcome a 17 point deficit against Texans. Just when I thought they had no running game they come up with one. Now the Ravens are good, but when the going gets tough the tough get going, and this could be the Colts' last shot at winning this division for a long time. Just a hunch.

Vikings over Lions: Of course.

Saints over Raiders: It is crunch time for the Saints.

Jets over Bungles: Because they're the BUNGLES! ( I refuse to call the Bungles by their rightful name until they can win one!)

Redskins over Rams: Of course.

Broncos over Jaguars: It is in Denver. Living at about 6,000 feet myself, I know the importance of altitude. Since the Jags live at sea level...(and they are still all banged up)

Cowboys over Cardinals: If it was just Warner vs. Romo I'd pick Warner, but it isn't, so I won't.

Niners over Eagles: Because the Niners don't have players questioning everything the way McNabb does...a rule of thumb for me is never pick the team where one of its most important players is questioning the play of the rest of the team.

Packers over Seahawks: I can't believe how far the Hawks have fallen! They should have the NFC West sowed up by now! Since I can't figure out why this team is doing so poorly, I must go with the Packers, who still have a shot at their division title.

Giants over Browns: Of course. Why is a mismatch like this on Monday night? (Don't reply, I know why! The same reason the Fins aren't on this year!)

Let me "gloat" about picking the Dolphins, one of the few here who did...and also, the Cards over Bills and the Pats over the Niners. My be the AFC East Effect on me...since 1970 something, I think I have had a pretty good feeling about how teams in the division work. Now, if someone could enlighten me on the AFC and NFC Souths...Falcons over Packers?And why is it the Vikings always seem to impress when they win and look so bad when they lose? As for the Saints, yep, business, it seems, as usual:  despite some good years in there, historically the Saints have been losers and despite all best efforts, they can't seem to shake the losing habit consistently. I am 9-5 this week, but I shouldn't have picked the Lions over the Bears. I will NOT pick the Lions again for the rest of the season! They play without hope. As for the Chiefs (I had the Panthers), they played like their whole seaon was in the Denver win last week and they forgot to show up this week.

The Bucs and the Broncs...see, this is why (as I've claimed in other posts and comments) I do not like the Broncos! You pick them to win and they lose, and you pick them to lose and they win! I think I have said in a post a couple of years ago that the Broncos are the Bengals (ooops! Bungles) of the NFC West (while the Seahawks are the Bungles of the NFC West). Folks, I do not like inconsistent, flaky teams. Thus I do not like the Bungles, Seahawks, Broncos, Browns, and Falcons, and, too a lesser extent, the Jets (in fact the reasons I have rooted for the Fins all these years is that, in 1970, when the Jets and the AFL entered the NFL and their only competetion in the AFC East was supposed to be the Colts, the Jets fell flat-footed with/without Namath with his knee injuries, and Shula's new Fins team took the Jets' place in that division...so I became a Fins fan. And now you know the rest of the story!)...but the Jets' flakiness appears to be mostly front-office generated. Didn't they have Parcells at one time?

It appears I was right about the Patriots. The rest of you can count them out if you want to, but I won't because, as I said, I know how AFC East teams work. The Pats will not simply go away so that the uppity Bills (or Fins) can blow their "dynasty" away that easily. The Bills? Yep, and until I know how bad Edwards' injury is, the Bills are still in the thick of it. You all can say what you want about the Fins as well. Ruggedest is right, however--this Miami team, which is NOT last year's team!--may not have all the "right" stuff on paper, but I've said it before and I'll say it again: football games are not played on paper!!! Now if they only don't get overconfident against the Texans!

 

If ever a team should have won in week 5, Houston is it! Sage Rosenfels must think he is still on that mediocre 2006 Fins team! Way to go Sage! YOU BLEW IT!

And way to go Saints! Just how long are you going to screw around your loyal--super loyal, in fact--fans who stood by you all even when Katrina took your home away? Do you guys think you can win one for my hubby's folks next week?

So far this year (with weeks 4 and 5 in): 15 - 12

Just caught SRMgenius's blog about censorship on Fox sports blogs. I support you in this, but still if you do leave Fox Sports blogs I'll miss you, from one Fins fan to another.