"Everybody knows" that the Patriots will beat the Dolphins this week, week 12, in Dolphins Stadium...and there are all sorts of reasons (some of which I can refute and some I can't, because "everybody" has a darned good reason to pick the Pats, and, if I wasn't a "stupid female" I'd pick the Pats as well...)

1. Matt Cassel just threw for 400 yards against a darned good Jets defense as he took the Pats, down 24-6, to a tie as the clock ran out with an incredible (yes I saw it) pass to Moss as Ty Law, who was brought in precisely to defend Moss, seemed to just stand there and let him catch it. Further, Cassel is NOT the doofus QB that he was in that Fins rout, 38-13, in New England. Therefore, since Cassel is so much better now (and I admit he is), the Pats will win.

2. Revenge. Skipping over 2007 because the Fins couldn't beat a wet noodle in 2007 (does that make the 2007 Ravens lower than a wet noodle?), going back to 2003, when the Pats won both matches, both teams have won one match each, not always at home either. In fact you have to go way back to find a year the Fins won both, and it is too far back to matter in this case. Thus, the Pats should get their revenge as well. To heck with Joey Porter's diatribe about the Pats running up the score on his team last year...the Pats ran up the score on everyone else, too, and well...Joey Porter is just being Joey Porter. Not only do the Pats NOT take him seriously, his own teammates don't either!

3. The Fins special teams bleep. FOX Sports blogs won't let me say the word I want, so what the heck, bleep. I can't remember back to when they did not have good special teams (the late 60s, maybe??). Further, this issue of opponent TDs on punt and kickoff return coverage does not seem to bother Sparano much. Why? It would have driven Shula mad! And, Tony, you DO WANT TO BE thought of as the "next Shula", don't you? Now I do like Tony Sparano. But sometimes I do think he's a bit too laid back. Miami's special team woes should be making him as determined to correct them as it would Shula.

4. "Everybody knows" the Pats, who are in the "twilight" years of a truly great team (the term "dynasty" is arguable), "need" to win this game because if they don't they may not make the playoffs, and the Pats were picked to make the playoffs, so they must...and anyway, the Fins are an up-and-comer so they don't need it as much, and the Pats are old and the Fins are young, yadda yadda yadda.

5. The Pats will beat the Dolphins because the Wildcat will not be the surprise it was when the Fins won. Further, Bellichick will have the Pats stop the Wildcat, which the Fins can't win without.

6. Sure the Pats have lots of injuries, but they have the wisdom and depth as well as the will to playoffs to take care of that problem, and, oh yeah, the Fins have had few injuries because, well, just because. Luck, I guess.

7. Bellichick needs to have his team get revenge on Bill Parcells, for some reason. In the "Bill vs. Bill" matchup, Bellichick trumps Parcells. And oh yeah, Bellichick is a better coach than Sparano.

8. "Everybody knows" the Fins secondary isn't up to stopping Cassel should Cassel have another game like he did against the Jets. I mean, if the Jets couldn't stop him....

9. The Pats were looking ahead to the Chargers, and, further, it was at home and they had no idea what the Dolphins had in store for them in that 38-13 blowout, so the Pats can be excused for blowing that game, but now they know what the Fins are capable of so they won't make that mistake again.

10. The Pats are just a better team, more experienced, especially at making runs for the playoffs, more talented, better coached, and have more incentive on top of wanting revenge, and as with the old George allen Redskins, the "time is now"...and Miami is just gonna have to wait their turn.


Well, I might as well stop at ten reasons why those who are picking the Pats are doing so, at least as far as FOX Sports blogs goes. I could put more but then I'd be repeating myself.

As I said I can refute some and can't' refute others. I will say this. Reason ten is the only reason that makes sense, and, all other things being equal, this reason alone, ESPECIALLY the one about having the experience to make runs for the playoffs (which Miami hasn't been in since the beginning of the decade), would seem to indicate the Pats will most certainly win. And, yes, Bellichick IS a better coach than Sparano, whom the jury is still out on because he's a rookie HC and he has yet to fix Miami's special teams woes as he has been fixing the offense and defense.

But I'll try to refute most of them, anyway.


1. Cassel IS a MUCH BETTER QB now than he was in the early season, more poised and more prepared, and I doubt (Porter's rants aside) that the Fins D will have similar success against him this time. The Pats OL has also improved so Cassel doesn't seem to be getting sacked quite as much. But he is still very sackable. And, those of you who are picking the Pats (which is nearly everyone on this blog, even Bolt Backer 21!), explain to me why, if Cassel is so good, he had to pull a Tom Brady in the second half of that Jets game to pull to a tie when, if he really was Brady, that would not have been necessary and the Pats would have had the game sewed up by the third quarter at least? I mean, sorry, but the Pats made the Jets look like world beaters, and now "everyone" has the Jets winning the AFC East!

I will say this: if the Jets beat the Titans this Sunday, they DESERVE to win the AFC East!

So that, though Cassel is a better QB than he was in that 38-13 clobbering, the Fins D knows one thing: he is STILL no Tom Brady, and Matt Cassel still will not intimidate them. Advantage Fins.

2. Revenge is a funny thing when you have the sometimes erudite Porter saying he wants revenge for that time last year when the Pats were up 21-7 late in the 4th quarter and, instead of sitting on the ball on the last drive of the game, the Pats used running palys instead as if (in Porter's mind) the Pats sought to run up the score even more. So what I am saying is the Pats aren't the only side wanting revenge here. Advantage even, slightly favoring the Pats, but considering Porter DOES have a lot of influence on the play of his defensive cohorts.

3. I will give no argument here as I am not happy with the Fins giving up all those TDs on punt/kickoff return coverage, almost one per game this year. Big advantage to the Pats.

4. I'd say this one is even, because "twilight years" or not, I can't think of a better reason for winning than being 1-15 last year and having won 4 straight. Advantage Fins.

5. This one doesn't wash, because, as I said in a previous post, Bellichick "wrote the book" on the Wildcat/single wing formation for the NFL, so that, if he couldn't defend against it (or, at least, make some adjustments during that 38-13 game, but he couldn't though he knew what he was up against), he had no excuse. And what makes "everybody" think he will be able to stop it Sunday? And, for that matter, do the Dolphins even NEED the Wildcat? Can it be assumed that they MUST use the Wildcat? Or that they will even USE the Wildcat? Oh, and BTW: the Fins lost to the Texans as well as the Ravens despite using the Wildcat, but they also beat the Broncos without it! (Note: So the Bronco defense is a wash? Then what so you call the Pats defense in that first half against the Jets, and the overtime?) Advantage none or even.

6. Here is the reason the Fins have had so few injuries this year: Tony Sparano's tight fisted training program combined with the fact that (as under Shula) the players don't mind playing injured. Turning it around to winning does that. Advantage Fins.

7. I won't even comment on this BS. Advantage none or even.

8. You can't make this claim because one has no idea IF Cassel will have that kind of game against the Fins he had against the Jets. And as long as we're at it, can one say that the Pats will be able to stop Ronnie Brown if Ronnie Brown has another game like he did against the Pats in week 3? So, this kind of argument is false. Advantage none or even.

9. As far as I'm concerned the Pats have NO EXCUSES for losing IN NEW ENGLAND, 38-13, to a team that went 1-15 the year before and had already lost their first two games, one by a blowout. This point of "the Pats didn't know what was coming" is especially ironic considering some of those who are making this claim also have made the claim that Bellichick is a CHEATER! So, which is it? Advantage Fins.

10. On paper, the Pats are a better team, but, as they say, games aren't played on paper but on the field. The game will be a here and now event and one can pretty much throw history out the window (which is funny for me to admit this because my picks usually have some history to back them up), because as they say this game is vitally important for both teams. In "must win" situations, with talent levels fairly even, good coaching on both teams, and both teams expected to rise to the occassion, is there really an advantage here? (I mean, why would the Fins NOT rise to the occassion? They were 0-2, beat the Pats and then the Chargers, another playoff expectant team...then lost ot the Texans and Ravens, and have beaten the Bills, Broncos, Seahawks and Raiders in sucession....all of which they could have lost! Thus they have been "rsing to the occassion" for at least four straight weeks! Why would they stop now?) As I said in the title, the Jets game was also a must win game, and the Pats lost (true, they had the bad luck of not winning the coin toss, but then again they could have stopped Dustin Keller on 3rd and 15, but they didn't.) Oh, and, BTW, this is also a must win game for the Dolphins, and it's in Miami. Advantage Fins.

So, that gives the Dolphins a 5-2 advantage with 3 even. And it is those "evens" that could determine who wins, so we might have a close one here.


If I missed anything or if readers can come up with some darned good reason why the Pats will win after all, let me know.

Does anyone actually believe Donavan McNabb, a several year NFL vet, didn't realize that at the end of an overtime period if the score was tied, that's how the game ended? The Bungles, who flubbed a possible game winning FG, surely knew, so what was McNabb's and Reied's excuse?

 

Did anyone actually expect (who saw the game, that is, cos I only saw highlights) that the Steelers, who had huge offensive yardage, would win by the improbable 11-10 and that officials regarding that forward lateral are now saying the TD should have stood?

 

The Packers beating the Bears 37-3??? We are not in the year 1938 are we (well, some say we are in terms of the economy...I'd say 1930 might be more like it)

 

Amd who doesn't think the Cowboys beat the Redskins ONLY because Romo was back and Portis was out?  The two of you, let me know.

 

Did anyone really think the Jags really would beat the Titans? Does anyone really think the Jets will next weekend? As a fan of the 1972 Dolphins, I'd like to think someone will!

 

The Cards-Hawks, Niners-Rams, Panthers-Lions, and Colts-Texans games went about as expected. Some games had to!

 

Well, the Broncos, who would be the Bengals if they were a losing team, did it again! Everyone and his grandmother expected the horses to go down to the Ryan-Flyin' Falcons, plus Turner-Burner! BUT NOOOOOOO!  Folks, the Broncos are one of the biggest reasons I don't do the "stupid female" picks anymore...they lose when they should win and win when they should lose, and, what with the Chargers loss, it looks like the Broncos are likley to pull off winning the AFC West. That;s too bad because they don't play like a playoff team consistently enough.

 

So, that, with Carolina over the Detroit crew and the Bucs over the Vikes, it looks as if the Falcons will now have their work cut out for them. That the Bucs stopped Adrian Peterson, though, is impressive. As for the Saints and Chiefs, all that biz about Thigpen (what a name for a QB!) must have had a lot of folks thinking the KC'ers would win it, despite their bad defense.

 

Speaking of bad defense, I think the Raiders showed their D isn't so bad after all, getting Mr. Sore Foot down for a safety (serves them right for passing that bull biscuit story along! Sore foot, huh...Chad sure didn't look like he had one out there the way he played, especially that last drive). Now, if the Raiders had a decent offense they probably would have won the game. The Fins had close to 400 yards of offense and only 17 points? Guys, YOU'RE GONNA HAVE TO DO BETTER THAN THAT NEXT SUNDAY AGAINST THE PATS!!! And for pity sake, WORK ON THOSE DARNED PUNT-KICKOFF RETURN TEAMS! There is NO WAY Oakland should have gotten a TD! But that was to be expected (?) with the Raiders having one of the better special teams and Miami one of the worst.

Oh well, at least they won, are now 6-4, a game behind the Jets and a game in front of the Bills. Did anyone actually think at this point in the 2008 season the Fins would be anywhere but last, and by that I mean DEAD LAST? And if I read ever again by Marvez or any of the other FOX Sports pundits that the Phins have the worst receiver corps in the league, or that Ted Ginn Jr. can't take a hit...

As for that Ravens-Giants game, I have no sympathy for the plight of the Ravens. Now I'd liek to see how well the Titans would do against the Giants...no, Titans, you will not go undefeaed! Get with the Pats about that for a clue.

And my dad up in heaven is smiling....

Which brings me to the Browns-Bills. Good for the Browns, who I have no opinion over, ever, and barely even acknowledge their existence theyre so mediocre, as usual. Except that it is the Browns who, after all, beat the Giants, and were in some quarters favored to beat the Bills. Weather was no factor as Buffalo and Cleveland are winter weather soul mates with the Lake Effect. It is clear now that Brady Quinn will be THE Browns QB for years to come. It is also clear that the Bills have only a prayer left to make the playoffs...their last four games are Dolphins, Jets, Broncos,and Patriots. Except for the Fins game and the cold weather factor (against the Fins in Buffalo), I expect the Bills to lose the rest and wind up 8-8, assuming they beat the Chiefs and Niners the next two weeks.

 

Ad for my next trick, I'll show that it is very possible that the Dolphins can win the AFC East...but next time!

 

 

Just read this on Fox Sports "news"....Fins QB Chad Pennington has a "sore foot" but was probable for Sunday vs. Raiders. Funny this is coming out just now, when everyone and his uncle has plopped down God-knows-how-many bucks on a sure Dolphin blow out, minus 8 or 9 or whatever it is now, seeing as how the Raiders can't seem to average more than 12 points a game (sounds familiar with a certain team last year!)!

Sorry, but I, a "reformed NFL bettor," thinks this looks suspicious. I wonder if Parcells has ever been involved with this sort of possible conspiracy...and anyway, it is even funnier that if this is a conspiracy, it is being done to Mr. NFL Conspiracy, Al Davis! Or, Tony "Soprano" Sparano? ;-)

For instance, back in 1970 something I put down, on the Saturday before the game, a fairly large (for me) amount of dollars, on the Chiefs vs. the Raiders on the spread plus about 10 points or so (the Chiefs were mediocre to bad that year, under Hank Stramm) because it was announced Kenny Stabler had a sore arm or something but was "Probable"...naturally, Stabler played and it was "what sore arm?" and covered the spread to boot.

But Al Davis used to pull this nonsense all the time so that for me it was getting so I wouldn't even touch a Raiders game spread-wise!

Is it me, or do others think the Sparanos (likely NOT trying to influence betting at all) think that at least the Fins are playing a mind game on the Raiders, a la the old Al Davis?

I was almost ready to give up this blog to my son, "Son of Snorky," (who began his own blog on realsportsblogs but hasn't actually posted anything, so I may take that one over!), due to back injury, or rather, a lotta bit of arthritis mixed with a bit of osteoporosis...yeh, yeh, yeh, you men here don't wanna hear about it! So what the heck, it was too much you know what in the wrong position!

And, oh yeah, the Dolphins losing so horribly to the Ravens four weeks ago! I thought I was going to DIE! Now I can take losing by one point to the Texans--whom they have never beaten, so what else is new? But when it is a team the Fins have pretty much owned (except for a playoff loss), and when it is an improving pass defense against the rookie Flacco, and one of the best AFC defenses against the wonder of the Wildcat--well, the Fins couldn't lose, right? BUT THEY DID AND THEY DID HORRIBLY, so I thought I was going to die, and in an apoplectic fit of anger I guess I did a number on my sacri-iliac! No you know what that night! I had a headache!

Nor did it help the (as I expected) the Fins demolished the Bills the following week, reigned in the horses the week after that, and this past Sunday managed to survive a weak Seattle team. This brought me back to this blog! It was vitally important that Miami beat a weak team. Funny how a rebuilding, up and coming team finds a way to beat the "big boys" (Pats, Chargers, Broncos) but always struggles against teams that look (in the win-loss column) like losers (Texans, Seahawks). But they held off against Seattle (with Yeremiah Bell redeeming himself after letting Texan QB Schaub run it into the endzone in that one-point loss), and with a remaining schedule that mostly includes weaklings (like the Niners, Rams, Raiders and Chiefs) as well as their division rivals, the Fins had to prove to me that they could beat these kinds of teams, no matter which way.

So now we have the AFC East in a bind, with the Jets and Pats at 6-3 and the Fins and Bills at 5-4. Wha haappen to the Bills? According to most experts, it is the fact that beginning with the loss to Miami in week 8, then the Jets in week 9 and the Pats this past week, the problem for the Buffalos is that Edwards can't read a 3-4 defense. If that is indeed the cast, then the Bills are out of it...they have the Fins, Jets and Pats pretty much in the crucial final four weeks. One can assume that the Fins, Jets, and Pats will all still be in the running at that point, so the Bills will have to rely on the old reliables of home field (particularly against the warm weather Fins...one day soon I am going to rant on why the NFL insisted on keeping the Dolphins in the same division with three cold weather teams, and it doesn't get much colder than Buffalo in the late fall/winter!), and that they have played spoiler on the Jets since almost forever. Which could mean---guess what, all you Pats doubters!---Snorky was right to say several weeks ago that counting out the Bradyless bunch was a bad idea.

Now some might claim I made up that headline, "Go Pats" to flip off Jets fans and get Josh Q. Public to notice me. Josh Q WHO? But anyway, I still do not like the Patriots and probably never will as long as Bellichick is their coach. And I can still say I might be a Jets fan today had the Jets been able to ride their AFL success into the AFC in 1970 instead of cave to the newcomer Colts and upcomer Dolphins that year. But instead, Sonny Werblin sold the team to incompetents, and the Jets have been incompetent on and off since then. (It is one thing for the Fins post-Joe Robbie ownership to have gone downhill under Huizinga, who really is one of the worst sports franchise owners out there...I mean, look at the Marlins! and it is one thing for the Fins coaching to have been really lousy for the last 7 years or so. It is clear now that Hiuzinga is letting the football pros run the team now, Parcells and Co in the front office and Sparano and Co on the field, with good results so far. It is another thing for the Jets to have not even been close to a Super Bowl IN FORTY YEARS!!!)

And therein lies the edge to the Pats. As much as one cannot stand Bellichick, as much as one can downgrade Matt Cassel, as much as one can say that new runner of theirs won't make up for the ones who are injured, and as banged up as the Pats defense is, the Pats did not let their at home crushing by the Dolphins get ot them. The Pats--as so many had hoped--did NOT go away, did not let losing Brady get ot them, and did not let their fans get them down. As much as I can't stand the Pats, I gotta say this is definitely the team that has dominated the 2000s, that knows how to win when it counts and can come back to the point where (besides the Titans) has the best shot at winning the AFC! Besides Favre, Thomas Jones, and Ty Law (again!), what do the Jets have? So what if they clobbered the hapless Rams? As far as I am concerned, that game says more about the Jets lack of moral fiber than anything else (you know, like the Pats lack of moral fiber everytime they annihilated the Fins last year!)

Now don't take that "GO PATS" headline to mean I am actually rooting for the Pats. Perish the thought! It is just that the Jets are favored and I'm sorry, if Favre has a bad game, and he might because the Pats really are inspired (and not looking ahead to that rematch in Miami against a true nemesis, who outside of last year has always beaten the Pats at least once a season), the Jets won't win, period, no matter what Tom Jones does.

And don't look for anymore "Stupid Female Picks" because obviously my record so far is embarassing and I don't even want to think about it!

A note to Bolt Back 21: don't give up, the Chargers are still going to win the AFC West. Good golly, the Broncos surely don't deserve to!

This week I'm just gonna list my picks with no explanations...after last weeks's 6 - 8, I have to agree with slshusker...my picks deserved no respect! Rams over Skins?? Browns over Giants?? Jags over Broncos???  And kudoos to that Cards fan who lambasted my Cowboys pick!

Bills over Chargers (Because it's in Buffalo and their QB is back)

Panthers over Saints

Bears over Vikes

Steelers over Bungles

Titans over Chiefs

Dolphins over Ravens

Giants over Niners

Cowboys over Rams

Texans over Lions

Colts over Packers

Jets over Raiders

Skins over Browns

Bucs over Seahawks

Broncos over Pats (good golly I picked the Broncs again??? But it is funny how it seems when the Chargers lose the Broncos win, and vice versa...but what if Bills lose? Pats might regain some incentive.)