"And you may ask yourself...well, how did I get here?"
- Talking Heads
When the Utah/Golden State series tips off Monday night, it will indeed be a Once In A Lifetime event. Two teams that weren't expected to advance beyond the first round will square off in an unlikely Western Conference Semi-Final showdown.
Two underdogs...and two vastly different journeys. The 8th seeded Golden State Warriors needed only 6 games to dispose of the Dallas Mavericks, a series that is being dubbed as one of the biggest playoff upsets in NBA history. On the other side of the coin, the Utah Jazz didn't clinch their opening round series until the final seconds of a wild 7th game in Houston.
At this point, regular season records mean very little...as both teams roll on to the next round with momentum and confidence. Let the games begin...
Splitting Headache
Many folks are talking about the Utah/Golden State season series split (2-2), as if it provides an indicator of how evenly matched these two teams are. While it could end up being a tough series, here are a few reasons why the regular season is virtually irrelevant in this case:
This isn't the same Golden State team...literally - The first two regular season match-ups between these teams occurred back in November, long before the Warriors had made their blockbuster trade with the Pacers. Most notably, the presence of Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington were missing.
This isn't the same Utah team either - OK, the personnel is still the same...but Utah struggled mightily during the last few weeks of the season. Only now are we beginning to see the same dominant team that began the season with an astounding 12-1 record. This is the first year that Jerry Sloan's rebuilt Jazz squad earned a playoff spot, and in just their first post-season series...we saw his group mature before our very eyes.
This is the Playoffs, people! - If the playoffs were determined by regular season records...well, neither of these teams would be here. 'Nuff said...
Common Ground
Other than their underdog status, these two teams don't have a lot in common. The up-tempo Warriors take nearly twice as many 3-pointers as Utah, a team that prefers to work the half-court set for open looks. While Golden State has plenty of slashing perimeter players, Utah relies more on quick passing and off-the-ball cuts to get their scoring. In terms of style, you really couldn't ask for a more contrasting match-up.
Where are my Damn Keys?
Here is my look at the key factors for each team:
Utah
Same Ole' Song and Dance - In the first round series against Houston, the Jazz remained relatively consistent in their approach. Offensively, they utilized a heavy dose of pick-and-rolls...which should be no surprise. Execution has always been the key ingredient for Sloan's offense, and this young group of players is more disciplined that you would expect. Instead of relying on one-on-one playmakers, Utah depends on crisp passing and motion away from the ball. Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams are capable of creating their own shots, but both seem to do so within the flow of the offense.
Watch out for Snipers - Even though Utah plays a hard-nosed brand of defense, they have some areas of concern. Primarily, they have had trouble defending against the 3-point shot. The good news is, the Houston series should give them a good glimpse of what they will see against Golden State. How Utah defends Golden State's ball-handlers will be absolutely crucial to the outcome of this series. If they can hinder Baron Davis even a little bit from penetrating and dishing to open long-range shooters...it would be a huge bonus.
Golden State
Is there a doctor in the house? - Baron Davis isn't 100% healthy, which makes his first-round playoff performance even that more impressive. At this point, his injuries aren't enough to keep him out of the lineup...but they have been nagging at Baron for a while. It's a tough situation for head coach Don Nelson. The Warriors absolutely need Baron Davis to be on the floor, but they also need to keep him healthy and rested. One thing is for sure, Baron is definitely on the right team...because he can be absolute warrior. And if his team hopes to advance any further...he will have to be.
This team could self-destruct in 30 seconds - When Stephen Jackson was traded to Golden State, he was shipped with a warning label on his forehead that says "Highly Explosive". Granted, he doesn't necessarily need to be Captain Cool all the time in order to win, but for Golden State...Jackson must keep it together in this series. Anyone that has followed his career knows that there are two sides to Stephen Jackson - effective...and destructive. Jackson will probably receive a lot of different defensive looks...just like Utah gave McGrady in the first round. The combination of Andrei Kirilenko, Derek Fisher, and Gordan Giricek is likely to frustrate Jackson at times...and he will need to keep an even keel in order to help his team.
The Difference
There will be lot of themes to watch in this one...but here is a couple that could make the difference:
All Eyes on Carlos Boozer - Houston didn't have an answer for Boozer, and Golden State probably won't either. Carlos has quickly developed into one of the best post players in the league. He flashed a perfectly balanced repertoire against Houston...scoring at will from mid-range and around the hoop.
The Real Stephen Jackson? - The "volatile one" had a great series against Dallas, highlighted by an impressive 47.5% shooting from beyond the arc. The only question is, which Stephen Jackson will show up?
Great Expectations
Overall, this series should have its share of fireworks. Both teams play with high intensity, even though they have contrasting styles. With a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line, expect nothing less than an all-out dogfight.
So how did these two teams get here? It doesn't matter...this should be one hell of a fight.