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Report User My brother and I got into a discussion a few months ago about Brett Favre. We differed on whether or not it was time for him to finally just hang it up, but we both agreed that there was nothing cooler in sports than being a starting quarterback in a Super Bowl. If we could have chosen any career track in sports, that would have been it. We understood why it was so hard for him to walk away.
But that got me thinking. What if you weren't a Hall of Fame quarterback? What if you were just a no-name guy struggling to hang onto the dream?
If you were really, really good at a sport, but also kind of sucked, what would be the best career choice then?
It seemed like a simple question, but the more I got into, the more I realized there was a dizzying array of factors at play here. Right away, the elements I identified as being important were:
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Money
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Dues-Paying (what would life be like on your way to becoming a below-average pro)
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Groupies (self-explanatory)
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Post-Career Opportunities
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And, what I'll call the "Grandkid" Factor, meaning 50 years from now, how cool will Grandpa seem when people explain what he used to do
The sports careers I considered were baseball, football, basketball, hockey, golf, and generic Olympic athlete. I'm tossing out the non-revenue sports, because there's no possible way you can convince me that being a professional bowler or bass fisherman is on par with playing in the National Football League. NASCAR is too difficult to compare, and from my outsider's perspective, it seems like you need to be like third-generation to even get into that racket.
Also, no tennis, because it's basically the same experience as golf, but you have to work a lot harder, your body breaks down quicker and there's a good chance you had to endure a crazy dad to get there. And how many times can you have fun getting smoked in straight sets by Roger Federer.
I tracked each factor on a five point scale and added up the results to figure out which sport was best for underachievers. My exceedingly scientific results are as follows.
#1 - Money
This is a key consideration, so let's deal with it right up front. Scrubs don't have much in the way of endorsement potential, so we're pretty much looking at base salary here. I'll take each league's minimum salary as our guide.
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Sport |
Score |
Explanation |
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Baseball |
3.5 |
Minimum: $327,000 |
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Football |
3 |
Minimum: $225,000 - $750,000 |
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Basketball |
5 |
Minimum: $412,718 - $1.1 million+
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Hockey |
3 |
Minimum: $450,000 |
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Golf |
4
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John Cook, the player who finished 150th on last year's PGA Tour money list, made $150,839. That doesn't sound great, but his career earnings are well over $11 million. And golfers get lots of free clothes and equipment. |
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Olympics |
1 |
If you're a medal winner in a glamour sport, you have plenty of earnings potential. Since we're talking about scrubs, not so much. Those guys work at Home Depot. I've seen the commercials. |
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#2 - Dues-Paying
Life's great once you reach your destination, but how's the journey?
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Sport |
Score |
Explanation |
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Baseball |
2 |
Long bus rides to sleepy burgs. Terrible food. Low pay. Moving whenever you get promoted or sent down. Doesn't sound like that much fun to me. |
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Football |
5 |
Even a below-average NFL performer was likely a stud player at a big-time Division I school. Those guys live ok... |
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Basketball |
4.5 |
Ditto for basketball, assuming you're an American. If you're European you serve an internship with some club team learning how to flop and play bad defense. If you're a mediocre American, you might also end up in Europe. In any case, not too shabby. |
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Hockey |
1.5 |
Sort of like the baseball experience, but in Canada. |
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Golf |
3.5 |
This is kind of a tough call. It's not bad for your four years in college, when you'll likely meet your hot future wife and spend all day on the driving range. But then you hit the Nationwide Tour and start praying for PGA exemptions. I've heard too many stories about these guys living out of their cars, chasing their dreams. On the plus side, you're playing golf every day. |
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Olympics |
1 |
You spend 15 years preparing to do one thing in life. Usually your training regimen involves getting up insanely early in the morning and trying to squeeze the rest of your life around that schedule. |
#3 - Groupie Factor
Now things get interesting.
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Sport |
Score |
Explanation |
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Baseball |
4.5 |
Even the ugliest, worst baseball players have hot wives. At some point that can't just be chance. |
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Football |
3.5 |
Decent, but the lack of long road trips cuts down on the opportunities. Also, helmets make recognition more difficult. |
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Basketball |
5 |
This is why we couldn't give baseball a '5' in this category. Most recognizable players, actual road trips and flexible hours give NBA ballers the top score in this category. Watch out for entrapment, however. |
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Hockey |
2.5 |
I've been to a few hockey games in my life. Had a great time. Not an NBA crowd when it comes to the women, however. |
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Golf |
4 |
Another split decision. On the one hand, I don't think golfers have groupies. Not the right lifestyle. On the other hand, I've never seen an unattractive golf wife. The factory that pumps them out must not allow it. |
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Olympics |
1.5 |
No groupies AND your entire life is dedicated to making sure you treat your body like a temple (see what happens when you don't). I'm not sure two weeks in the Olympic Village is enough to cancel all that out. |
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#4 - Post-Career Opportunities
So once you've bounced around for awhile and decide to hang it up, what next?
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Sport |
Score |
Explanation |
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Baseball |
2 |
There are an awful lot of ex-ballplayers out there. Unless you had a good career in a single place, it's going to be tough to trade on your fame. If you even want to stay in the game, you have to go back to the minors. On the plus side, you can probably get out of bed in the morning without any problems. |
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Football |
3.5 |
Tough spot for the NFL. Careers are short and the physical effects can be long-lasting. On the other hand, there's a good chance you could become a high school football coach, one of the coolest jobs around. |
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Basketball |
3 |
You might have made enough money not to worry too much about what happens afterwards. If you can string even four words together, some network will probably try to hire you as an analyst. Then again, you may not be able to string four words together. |
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Hockey |
3.5 |
Honestly, I have no idea. There's really only one hockey analyst on TV, and Barry Melrose isn't going anywhere any time soon. The good thing is that since you're a hockey player, you're most likely a level-headed guy who appreciated his time in the game but will have no trouble re-adjusting to living a normal life. I think I'd rather live next to a retired hockey player than any other kind of ex-jock. |
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Golf |
5+ |
Champions Tour? Golf pro at a private club? Giving lessons for 100 bucks an hour and getting in nine rounds a week? Top marks here. |
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Olympics |
1.5 |
Can you keep working at Home Depot once you're no longer an Olympic athlete, or are they like boosters in the SEC, where you're taken care of as long as you produce but blow out that knee and they don't even know you? Good news: every four years you can go back on TV as an analyst for CNBC's coverage of your event. That's probably pretty cool. |
#5 - Grandkid Factor
So how awesome will your grandkids think you are when they hear what you did back in the old days?
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Sport |
Score |
Explanation |
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Baseball |
3 |
Baseball fans have an awfully long memory. Not only will they think your career was cool, but they may even know just how many Win Shares you accounted for. |
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Football |
2 |
Don't get me wrong, it's cool, but unless you have a Super Bowl ring, it's not that cool. |
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Basketball |
3 |
The great thing about basketball is that at some point in a season you end up standing next to just about everyone. So you'll always have a story that starts like, "So this one time I was guarding Shaq..." |
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Hockey |
1
(4*) |
"Son, there used to
Sports analysts, both professional and armchair, are a fickle bunch. Going into a playoff series, they all know how things will play out, since one team is "clearly superior" or has "match-up edges." Writers, bloggers and TV guys will stick to their guns, through thick-or-thin, unswervingly devoted ... right up until the point where their favorite shows signs of weakness and they completely change their minds. Part of this is the natural bias of reporters. Underdogs and comeback kids make great copy. Methodical superiority is sort of boring. Commentators heighten the drama before a game by appropriately setting the scene. But this dynamic also demonstrates the extent to which we all make common psychological mistakes, including placing way too much emphasis on recent events, rather than long-term trends. So now, after two games in which the plucky Cavaliers took it right at the way-too-dismissive Pistons, everyone is on board with the boys from Cleveland (here's a well-written example). To properly evaluate tonight's game, the key is not forgetting the things we thought we knew before the series began. Here's what we used to know: The Pistons are the better team The Pistons and Cavaliers played in the same division. Detroit, even with its penchant for not always showing up to play, closed the regular season with a record of 64-18. Cleveland finished 50-32. That's a significant difference. Detroit won the season series 3-1 and dealt Cleveland a serious beat-down in a mid-April statement game. (The statement being, of course, we can beat you any time we really try, but trying is soooo hard...) Detroit had the league's second-best per-game point differential at +6.7 PPG, behind only San Antonio. Cleveland was at +2.2, only good enough for 8th best. None of these facts has changed and no player losses on Detroit's side (other than a hobbled Rasheed Wallace last game) should lead us to believe that somehow the balance of power has shifted. The Pistons have home court advantage They call it home court "advantage" for a reason. Teams win more often at home than on the road, so Cleveland's performance in the last two games shouldn't be that surprising (see here for a very dated study). For whatever reason, Detroit is a team whose players have trouble motivating themselves to go out and dominate when they think it's time for the other team to pack it in and go home. Put that team back in front of its home crowd and that annoying DEEEETROOOOIT BAAAAASSSSKETBAAALLLL guy and see how much more energy they have tonight. The Pistons have more playoff experience As many have pointed out, Cleveland is playing in this series like a team with nothing to lose. However, it's really easy to feel that way when you're opening a series on the road against a team that is heavily favored, or when you're down 2-0 at home and no one expects very much from you. But now this series is even, and the Cavaliers have had 48 hours to wrap their heads around the idea that just maybe they could win this thing. Don't be surprised if they open the game tonight playing tighter than we've seen them all series. The secret of the playoffs isn't just that the intensity is higher than it is in the regular season. The secret is that the intensity jumps every round and before every pivotal game. It will skyrocket tonight as Detroit returns home with its once-commanding 2-0 lead in tatters. Detroit has been in this position many times before. They know what the atmosphere is going to be like and more importantly, they know just how to manipulate that atmosphere to most affect the Cavs. We'll see if Bron Bron and his young charges are ready. I doubt it. Bottom Line A better team, familiar surroundings, and a moment the Cavs have never experienced? Sounds like an easy Detroit win tonight ... followed by two days of bloviating about the untouchable dominance of the Pistons. Last night, Jack Nicholson defended his appearance at a lowly Clippers game by saying: "I came up here in case Charles tried to get tough with my man Kobe at half-time." The game was played in Phoenix. Steve Nash looks tired. TNT pointed out that the Suns have played 11 games in 21 days, but it's also worth mentioning that going into last night's game, Nash was averaging 40 minutes a game in the playoffs, up from 35.5 in the regular season. That figure was already the highest of his career. Doug Collins really, really sounds like he wants to be back on the sidelines. Cuttino Mobley averaged three assists a game this year. I have no idea how. When it comes to being on the receiving end of semi-hard fouls, NBA players are turning into soccer players. Speaking of foreigners*, at a time when the league's European players are shedding their collective reputation as soft, no-defense jump-shooters, it's really nice to see Vladimir Radmanovic paying tribute by kicking it old school. With the dearth of creativity in Hollywood these days, I fully expect to see that Hanes commercial with Michael Jordan and Kevin Bacon made into a full-length movie. That should really help Bugs Bunny's Bacon number. Ernie, Charles and Kenny instantly became my favorite playoff announcing team after they had to take over for a few minutes when the Heats/Nets broadcast had audio problems. Can't we try them out in a regular season game next year, just for fun? So out-of-rhythm jump shots are bad, unless they're taken in overtime by Sam Cassell or Steve Nash? Do I have that right, Mr. Collins? The NBA should start fining guys who flop on defense. Or at least send them a letter telling them to stop being such wusses. (I'd make a WNBA joke here, but I'd be sleeping on the couch if my wife ever found out about it. Hi honey.) Anyone here able to read Raja Bell's lips after he hit that 3-pointer to force a second overtime period? I watched it a dozen times on TiVo and couldn't decipher it. I'm pretty sure I caught the last word though... *Joking, joking... Maybe not as good as you think. It's a topsy-turvy world in the National League East this year. The Mets parlayed a hot start into the second-best record in the NL. The Phillies, winners of 13 of their last 14, are sneaking up behind them and sit only one game back going into tonight's action. The Braves have been sluggish and currently languish two games under .500, five-and-a-half games off first place. The Nationals and Marlins have been just as bad as most people expected. So the standings going into tonight's games are as follows: ACTUAL STANDINGS - 5/16 W L PCT GB NY Mets 23 14 .622 - Philadelphia 22 15 .595 1 Atlanta 18 20 .474 5.5 Washington 13 25 .342 10.5 Florida 11 25 .306 11.5 So far, so good, for Phillies fans. The Braves are lurking a bit more than any of us would really like, given that team's annoying habit of making a second-half charge to win ...yet...another...division...title. But with how poorly the Phils started the season, this ain't too shabby. The trouble starts when you dig a little bit deeper into the team's stats. Among National League teams, the Phils are currently: On the plus side, they are 4th in OPS, behind Milwaukee, Cincinnati and New York. So the Phillies haven't done a great job scoring runs and, based on these rankings, they aren't so hot at preventing their opponents from scoring either. A few years ago, stats-nut Bill James happened upon a formula that did a great job predicting a team's won-loss record based on the number of runs it scored and allowed. He called it the "Pythagorean Record" and provided the following formula: (runs scored ^ 2) / [(runs scored ^ 2) + (runs allowed ^ 2)] Short run deviations from this expected value can most likely be attributed to luck. With that in mind, here are the Pythagorean standings for the NL East as of today: PYTHAGOREAN STANDINGS - 5/16 PW PL PPCT PGB RS RA NY Mets 22 15 .586 - 188 158 Philadelphia 18 19 .497 4 178 179 Atlanta 21 17 .547 1.5 202 184 Washington 17 21 .437 4.5 170 193 Florida 15 21 .414 6.5 173 206 The Mets drop down one game, but notice who the big losers are. The Phillies go from a very respectable 22-15 mark to a record of 18-19. The other three teams in the division all show substantial improvement. Worst of all, with the way the Braves have been playing, we would expect them to be 21-17, only a game-and-a-half out of first and two-and-a-half games up on our hometown heroes. So what explains this difference? If you believe the stat-heads, mostly short-term luck. The first 38 games do not present a significant sample size, so we would expect to see more bouncing around at this point in the season. In the end, however, a team's actual record should track pretty well with its performance on the field. If you're truly an optimist, you can believe it has something to do with grit, hustle and the attitude of the team's new center fielder. I hope those folks are right. But here's one more thing to chew on. Check out the home/road splits for this division: HOME / ROAD - 5/16 HOME ROAD NY Mets 12-6 11-8 Philadelphia 12-11 10-4 Atlanta 9-6 9-14 Washington 3-10 10-15 Florida 3-14 8-11 Notice anything? The Phils have played 23 games at home so far, by far the most in the division. Early in the season, the team certainly struggled at Citizen's Bank Park, but it's hard to believe the other teams won't benefit from a few stretches where they get to catch up on home games. Sometimes, the most interesting pieces of a news story are the things the reporter doesn't say. With that in mind, let's play another round of... ...The Subtext Game! Today's story is an AP article in which Larry Brown's agent attempts to tamp down rumors suggesting his client is headed out of town: Reports say Brown out, agent says he's in WHAT THE STORY SAYS WHAT IT REALLY MEANS NEW YORK (AP) - Knicks coach Larry Brown may be on his way out of New York. His agent insists there's no truth to such reports. Agent: "Look, just like I told the Pistons, and the Sixers, and the Pacers, Spurs and Clippers, Larry Brown has no interest in going somewhere else." And Stephon Marbury doesn't care either way. Marbury: "Watch me throw Brown under the bus..." "Based on our record, that's normal for anybody to have that speculation," the Knicks' point guard told The Associated Press on Monday, referring to reports that Brown may be booted following a 23-59 season. Marbury: "...riiiiight... here." The New York Post and Daily News reported Sunday that owner James Dolan is considering buying out Brown's contract. His possible replacement: team president Isiah Thomas, according to the Post. It's taken some time, but Dolan has finally figured out how he can stop Isiah from wrecking his team with awful personnel moves. Marbury, who feuded with Brown throughout the season, said either Brown or Thomas would be OK with him. "I wouldn't mind, it doesn't matter who coaches," he said. "I don't care if Larry Brown comes back. I wouldn't mind at all." Marbury: "Dude, I haven't listened to a coach for years, you think it matters who's telling me to pass more and shoot less?" Brown's agent, Joe Glass, said the team told him to ignore the New York tabloids. "I spoke to Isiah Thomas earlier this afternoon and he categorically denied that there's any substances to what was in the paper," Glass told the AP on Monday. Thomas: "You know you can't trust anything you read in the papers." Thomas coached the Indiana Pacers for three seasons, reaching the playoffs each time, before he was fired. ...by some suit who clearly doesn't know jack about basketball. "We have not commented on anything over the last two days," said Barry Watkins, senior vice president of communications for Madison Square Garden. Mouthpiece: "But if I COULD comment, I'd tell you that guy is a dead man walking." Brown, a Brooklyn native, described his hiring last year as a "dream job," and the Knicks hoped his happy homecoming signaled a return to the playoffs. Brown, a Brooklyn native, described his hiring last year as a "dream job," just as he had each of his 10 previous head coaching positions, which lasted an average of less than two and a half years. But despite a league-high payroll of more than $120 million, New York finished with the league's second-worst record, matching the most losses in franchise history. Reporter: "Hey, Brown's gone. I can't tick off Isiah Thomas now if I want to keep my access." Still, the Hall of Fame coach - who signed to a five-year deal with the Knicks worth a reported $50 million - has said he believes he will return. Brown: "And I've never been one to change my mind once it's made up." "I meet with Mr. Dolan and Steve (MSG sports president Mills) probably once a week," Brown said the day after the season ended. "I've never, ever gotten a feeling they don't want me to be a part of this. And they know how much I want to be here, especially in light of the fact that we won 23 games and I feel directly responsible for that." Brown again: "The 23 games we won, I mean. The 59 losses were all on those idiot players." He acknowledged that coaches without his resume probably wouldn't be safe with such a poor record, but Thomas indicated after the season ended that Brown would be back for another try. Thomas: "Seriously, you wouldn't believe how hard it is to get fired around here." "We haven't considered making a change because of his history. He may not want to hear this, but outside of Detroit and maybe Indy, he starts slow," he said. "If you look at his history, he's a slow starter and then he picks up steam and all of a sudden players start doing what he wants them to do and GMs such as myself find a way to get him the things that he needs and he finds a way to win. And I believe that will be the case here." Thomas: "Of course, I'm the same guy who believed Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis could co-exist in the same backcourt." If Brown does not return, it would be the second time in as many years that a team didn't want him back. He reached a buyout last summer with the Detroit Pistons - Brown maintains he was fired - even though he led the Pistons to the NBA Finals in both of seasons. ...while flirting with every little tramp GM in the league. Brown endured a miserable season with the Knicks, squabbling with players through the media and missing three games in April because of illness. He had only one worse season as a coach, when he went 21-61 with the San Antonio Spurs in 1988-89. Show of hands, who here really thinks that season with the Spurs was worse? Anyone? You in the back? No, you just had a question? Ok. Glass said Brown was recovering well after recent surgery, and shot down another report that Brown was interested in another coaching position next season. Agent: "Why, have you heard someone else is interested?" "He's the coach of the Knicks and that's the only team he wants to coach," he said. "...at this moment. Check back tomorrow." |
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