With Vijay Singh fresh off his win at the Barclays Classic, he heads to the U.S. Open with renewed confidence. If a fall from number two in the world to number three can be called a slump, he just broke out of it. And not a moment too soon. Singh now has to be considered a favorite again, and chances are he'll be in contention this week. But the player they all will be chasing is Phil Mickelson, who is the best big-game hunter on tour right now, having won the last two majors. Here's why he'll also win this week at the extremely difficult Winged Foot (or who might if he doesn't).
Favorites:
-Phil Mickelson-After bucking the monkey off his back at the 2004 Masters, Phil has become arguably the best player in golf. As I mentioned, he's won the last two majors, showing a mental toughness to go along with the most talented arsenal in the game. All the while flashing a Cheshire cat grin, as if he knows something we don't. He knows, all right. He knows that he is currently the best player in the world. And whether he actually is or not, believing it is his big difference. He's finally been able to pair his exquisite shot-making ability with the grit shown by the all-time greats. The next hurdle he would like to jump--beating Tiger head-to-head in a major championship. (Coming soon to a theater near you.) The one thing going against him this week-he has been on the brink of a few U.S. Opens, and hasn't been able to close the deal. (Still the pick here, though. Possibly going away).
-Tiger Woods-True, he hasn't played any serious golf since the Masters, but can he ever really be counted out? He obviously has the mental aspect of these majors down, but what his game is going to be like after the layoff is the question. Keep this in mind, though: the Open finishes on Father's Day, and since this is the first major without Earl watching, what better motivation could Tiger possibly have than that?
-David Toms-Admittedly, he doesn't hit it as far as the big guns, but distance off the tee doesn't always equate to Open success (see Stewart, Payne; Janzen, Lee; Pavin, Corey; et al.) He's been there before, having a PGA Championship under his belt, and has everything else needed to win this week: a solid short game, solid putting, just solid in general. He has a game (and mindset) similar to Stewart, Janzen, and Pavin--very few mistakes. Keep the ball in play. Win U.S. Opens. If not this year, certainly soon.
-MIchael Campbell-It seems that once a player wins a U.S. Open, he seems to contend for several years after that. (Stewart, Janzen, Els, etc.). After last year's victory, Campbell now knows how to play the disciplined, pressure-packed game to win. His final round 69 (-1) matched Tiger's and gave him a two-stroke victory over Woods. He'll draw on that if he's in the running Sunday.
-Vijay Singh-Phil Mickelson won the week before the Masters. Vijay won last week. Could be a good omen for Singh. No need to go into his credentials here. He's more than capable.
Don't Be Surprised If:
-Chris DiMarco wins. The temptation to say simply that he's due and leave it at that is overwhelming. But taking into consideration his top ten finishes in majors the last four years, it appears that he's, well, due. Like Toms, not a big hitter, but that's not a factor when he's playing well, as witnessed by his playoff with Tiger at the 2005 Masters, when both of them were seven shots better than the rest of the field. He came withing an eyelash of winning that, and you have to think that he's, well, due, right?
-Stuart Appleby wins. Good international, veteran player who has quietly crept up the world rankings. He's won just enough to stay in the headlines, but still tends to be overlooked by most when it comes to the Big Four tournaments. Doesn't have a weakness in his game, and could be the next great player to emerge.
-JIm Furyk wins. As I said earlier, former Open winners have a knack for playing well in subsequent Opens. He's as steady as they come under pressure, as witnessed by his Ryder Cup play in recent years. He cannot be overlooked. (Don't look now, but he's second on the money list this year).
Dark Horses:
-Kenny Perry-Look at total driving the last couple years (distance and accuracy). He's up there. In fact, he's up there in a lot of stats that matter. Can he do it on golf's grandest stage? No reason to think he can't, unless too many great players get in his way.
-Tim Clark-Finished third in last year's Open. Second in this year's Masters. Donated his first place money in the Nelson Mandela Classic in South Africa in November of 2005 to a deaf girl who needed implant surgery. Go Tim!
-K.J. Choi-Okay, a hunch. Strictly a hunch. But I think he's got the game.
Other 'dark horses' to watch: Scott Verplank, Justin Leonard, Darren Clarke, Padraig Harrington, Thomas Bjorn.
Not Quite Ready Yet:
-Adam Scott-A trendy pick by some. A solid pick in a few years. Great tools, great game. But not now. Too many good players with experience ahead of him.
-Sergio Garcia-As good a ball striker as there is, but his average (at best) putting won't get it done this week. But soon . . .
-Geoff Ogilvy-A real up-and-comer. He'll contend in majors in the next couple years, and could very well have a good showing this week. But he's not quite ready-yet.
What A Great Story It Would Be:
-Fred Couples-One of the most popular players on tour, it was great to see him in contention at Augusta. And it would be great to see it again this week. He still has the game, but time is his enemy. He's got maybe a year of top notch golf left?
-Mark Brooks, David Duval, or Colin Montgomerie, for various reasons. Brooks and Duval are former major winners who haven't done much in a long time. Montgomerie has never won a major, although he's had many close calls. Brooks had a very good stretch in the '90s, including winning the '96 PGA, but has finished out of the top 125 on the money list three straight years. A good showing by him couldn't come at a better time. Duval once had the best game in the world, though it was short lived. He'll certainly be overlooked here, so with no pressure, perhaps he can sneak up on the field. As for Monty, he was Europe's best player for about eight years running, but has no major victories to show for it. He still has a pretty solid game, but his margin for error will be almost non-existent. Granted, all three are (very) long shots, but that's what would make each a great story.
Thanks for taking the time to read.
Prospect