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    MLB Postseason Awards

    Wednesday, October 7, 2009, 08:47 AM EST [MLB]

    Anyone who has read this site in the past year knows how much I love doing awards columns. And, as I sit here and watch the end of this epic one-game playoff between the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins to decide the American League Central, it dawned on me that the end of the season yet again provides me another opportunity to partake in my favorite baseball activity: handing out hardware.

    Three stud players made the picking fairly easy, and obvious, this year, which takes some of the fun out of it. Indeed, Zack Greinke, Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols left little room for debate in their respective categories. Without further adieu, though, here are my final--for those scoring at home, I did four different awards-related articles this year--awards for the 2009 MLB season.

    American League

    Most Valuable Player: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

    I was really hoping that I could give this award to Ben Zobrist of the Tampa Bay Rays. Zobrist was sensational for the Rays, hitting .297/.405/.543 with 27 home runs and 91 RBIs while providing fine defense at multiple positions. Perhaps in any other year, Zorilla would garner more serious consideration, but the race for A.L. MVP is a one-man show.

    To anyone looking at this objectively, Twins catcher Joe Mauer is the only reasonable choice for this award. Mauer is a once-in-a-generation catcher who put together one of the finest seasons of all time, not just for a backstop. The stats are not official since game 163 is not finished yet, but he is a lock to win the sabermetric Triple Crown, leading the junior circuit in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Dude put up a line of .364/.442/.586 with a league-best park-adjusted OPS+ of 176. Arguing for someone else as M.V.P. is the equivalent in craziness as arguing that Craig Sager, he of the purple suits, has a good sense of style. Indeed, if he does not win, it is the writers who should be required to partake in mandatory drug testing, because one would have to be high to not pick Mauer as M.V.P.

    Not only was Mauer the best hitter in the league, he also plays a premium defensive position. And he does so well above average. It is difficult to find a league-average hitter who can catch, let alone the guy who leads the league in OPS. I know he missed a month, but there is no way the Twins sniff the playoffs without him.

    Cy Young: Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals: I wrote about Greinke's case two weeks ago. He, too, is a no-brainer. Greinke to no fault of his own pitched for a team with an embarr****ingly constructed roster, featuring the likes of Yuniesky Betancourt and Mike Jacobs, and still managed to go 16-8. Hopefully that will satisfy the writers who pretend that we are still living in the stone ages and feel that wins remain the most valuable way to evaluate pitcher effectiveness.

    The truth lies in the numbers.

    Greinke posted sick rates of 9.50 K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, ranking second in the league with 242 punchouts. He paced the league in ERA (2.16), WHIP (1.07), was also second in complete games (six) and fifth in innings pitched (229.1). As well, the 25-year-old ace also led the majors with a 2.33 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark and posted an excellent 2.75 tRA.

    Rookie of the Year: Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics

    This was supposed to be a race between David Price and super stud catcher Matt Wieters. Ironically, the Rays did have a rookie pitcher who is in the conversation here in Jeff Niemann. Niemann, one of the famous Rice trio of first-rounders, finally established himself at the major league level. The big right-hander went 13-6 with a 116 ERA+. His 6.23 strikeout rate left a bit to be desired, but he threw some important innings for Tampa Bay and should be a factor down there for the next few years.

    Anderson gets the vote here because he simply blew away the rest of the field in Wins Above Replacement, producing 3.8 WAR. His 11-11 record and just above league-average 102 ERA+ will hurt him with the voters, but he produced solid rates of 7.70 K/9, 2.31 BB/9 and 1.03 HR/9. He was hurt by a 67.0 strand rate that will regress up, but his 3.69 FIP was good for eighth in the AL. The kid has a bright future.

    National League

    Most Valuable Player: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals

    They should change the award name to the Pujols. The man just continues to mash. The Triple Crown talk ended up all for naught, but he still put up another Nintendo-like slash stats line of .327/.443/.658 with a league-best 188 OPS+. His defense was down at first base this year, with his UZR dropping to a five-year low of 1.8 and 1.0 UZR/150. But he was still again a plus with his glove and was worth 8.5 WAR when factoring in batting, fielding and positional factors. That translates to .1-M dollars. So, yeah, the Cards should definitely lock him up regardless of the price, because even with a record-setting deal, he is still a safe bet to be worth every penny.

    National League Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

    The Cardinals have an excellent chance of having a pitcher take home this award. Chris Carpenter came back from injury to put up another fine season. Carpenter went 17-4 while posting a league-best 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. New Hampshire's prized son won his second Comeback Player of the Year award and was a major reason why the Cardinals are headed back to the postseason.

    And Adam Wainwright was also damn good. Wainwright led the league with 19 wins, paced the circuit with 233.0 innings pitched and struck out 212. Combined, the pair formed one of the best 1-2 duos in the N.L.

    However, Carpenter (5.6) and Wainwright (5.7) actually rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in WAR for National League pitchers. Here are the top four:

    Lincecum: 8.2
    Javier Vazquez (guy gets no run support or love, by the way): 6.6
    Dan Haren: 6.0
    Ubaldo Jimenez (can't wait to watch this guy in the playoffs): 5.8

    Joel Pineiro is actually not too far off the pace in WAR from Carpenter and Wainwright. Another pitcher to improve considerably after switching to the inferior Senior Circuit, Pineiro produced the best ground ball rate in baseball and walked only 1.14 batters per nine innings. True, he does not miss bats (4.42 K/9), but he was excellent on the way to a 4.8-win performance. The trio combined for 16.1 WAR, which is incredible.

    While the trio was the league's best, Lincecum, as the numbers show, was the best individual pitcher. WAR is not the end-all be-all stat, by any means, but his lead is just so significant there. The Freak won 15 games on a team that featured one plus hitter in its offense, Pablo Sandoval, and scored about only seven runs a week. Plus, he paced the league with 261 Ks and four complete games and posted the second-lowest ERA (2.48). Only Greinke posted a lower FIP than his 2.34 and his 2.85 tRA was also excellent. He probably will not win his second straight Cy Young, since the voters seem to be centered in on St. Louis. But, before it is all said and done, his Trophy Case will not have a lot of empty shelf space.

    Rookie of the Year: Chris Coghlan, Florida Marlins

    In the spring, many people predicted this award to go to a member of the Marlins. Except the player was not supposed to be Chris Coghlan. Rather, stud outfield prospect Cameron Maybin was the guy whose name showed up in a million pre-season awards columns. But, with his incredible hitting down the stretch, Coghlan thrust himself in the conversation.

    Coghlan's first-half line: .245/.342/.335

    Coghlan's second-half line: .372/.423/.543

    Yeah, the kid mashed after the All-Star break. He only hit nine home runs, not exactly stellar for a left fielder. As well, he takes a hit for his position and below average defense; he was worth -12.8 runs below average, according to UZR.

    That said, Coughlan finished sixth in the league in hitting on the way to a line of .321/.390/.460. Not too shabby for a 24-year-old who was not expected to be a major factor for Florida this season.

    Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen is the guy likely to have the best career out of the rookie cl****, and he had fine rookie performance in his own right. McCutchen hit .286/.365/.471, posted an 11.1 BB% and graded out 17.3 runs above average with his stick in 493 plate appearances. The 22-year-old was one of the few bright spots during a rough second half in Pittsburgh, and he offers hope that the streak of 17 consecutive losing seasons will come to an end soon.

    3.7 (3 Ratings)

    New York Yankees Boast The Best Infield In Baseball

    Saturday, August 22, 2009, 08:12 PM EST [MLB]

    Earlier today, I compared second basemen Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia.

    While watching the Boston Red Sox versus New York Yankees (a real laugher, by the way) game this afternoon on Fox, though, I began to compare the two rivals' entire infields in my head and was just amazed at how much stronger the New York four is. Clearly, the Yankees have a fine infield, with two of the most recognizable stars in the game, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, making up the left side of a group flanked by Cano and Mark Teixeira. It really does not take a rocket scientist to understand how talented of a group that is.

    To determine the exact level of excellence of the New York infield, though, I went over to FanGraphs to take a look at how each player grades out in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). The four infielders, who all rank in the top four in the stat on the Yankees, have combined to amass 14.8 WAR. Which is just incredible.

    As I wrote the other day, Jeter is having one of the finest campaigns of his career at age 35. He leads the club with 5.5 WAR, having posted a line of .333/.396/.474 with 15 home runs and a 128 OPS+. He has also played much better defense, grading out 5.6 runs above average at shortstop.

    The biggest free agent offensive acquisition of the winter, Teixeira has rebounded from a slow start to post a line of .286/.384/.559 with 31 homers, 92 RBIs and a 144 OPS+. The switch-hitting slugger is second on New York with 4.0 WAR, though his -0.8 UZR could be suffering from some noise in the data. He is not a realistic M.V.P. candidate--as Jeter has been the more valuable player on his own team--but he has been a tremendous addition and a major upgrade over Jason Giambi.

    Rodriguez, 33, missed the first six weeks due to injury but has continued to put up incredible statistics since his return. He is batting .263/.398/.505 with 21 home runs, 65 RBIs and a 135 OPS+. Despite the fact that he has played in only 89 games and has provided below-average defense at third base, he has already produced 3.0 WAR.

    I touched on Cano earlier, but he is also having a fine rebound performance. He has put up 2.8 WAR, thanks to a .311/.343/.499 line and 118 OPS+. Plate discipline remains an issue for the sweet-swinging left-handed hitter, but he has continued to display plus power for a middle infielder (18 home runs) and has been a major asset for the Yankees.

    Certainly, the Steinbrenners spent a ton on the aforementioned players. A-Rod is due to make $32-M, Jeter and Teixeira will each net $20-M and Cano is being paid $9-M for 2009. For those scoring at home, that adds up to $81-M, or more than the entire payrolls for 15 teams in the sport.

    Are they all worth it, though?

    Jeter has exceeded his salary on a dollars earned/made scale by a considerable amount, as his WAR translates to $24.6-M. Teixeira should get to that point before the season is done, too, as he has already been worth $18.1-M with a little over a month to go. Rodriguez has provided $12.7-M of production, which would be higher had he been healthy all year. Cano has outperformed his paycheck as well, having been worth $11.3-M.

    Overall, a group that cost $81-M has been worth $60-M, representing negative value. However, New York, with its financial muscle, is the one team that can afford to over pay that much and still benefit. The Steinbrenner doctrine is to win the World Series at all costs, and, with a talented infield like they run out every night, it could very well end up happening.

    Indeed, the cost of those four players was expensive. Those four players are excellent and make up the best infield in the majors, though, and it is not particularly close. Thus, while there is no surplus value, the money was definitely well spent.

    3.7 (1 Ratings)

    What Grinds My Gears

    Wednesday, October 8, 2008, 12:58 PM EST [MLB]


    I hate to go all Peter Griffin in this space, but do you know what really grinds my gears?

    When ignorant baseball commentators make statements that are factually inaccurate.

    Disclaimer: I am also about to do my best Fire Joe Morgan impersonation as well.

    Let me start with the recent TBS coverage of the American League Division series between the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays.

    Right off the bat, Harold Reynolds-the man fired from ESPN for alleged sexual harassment, but for the most part a well-liked broadcaster-began discussing the Rays' lineup by suggesting that Carl Crawford would be one of the best leadoff hitters in the game if he played for another team.

    I am paraphrasing that, and it is not an exact quote. But, he then went on discussing how Crawford has been a great leadoff hitter in the past, ect...

    Well, Harold-

    A. Crawford has said, time and time again, that he hates batting in the leadoff spot.
    B. Crawford has not hit leadoff in any game this year.
    C. Crawford finished the season with a .319 on-base percentage.

    Point C especially shows Reynolds' severely flawed way of looking at baseball. He is stuck in the past, it seems. No player with a sub-.340 on-base percentage should ever sniff the leadoff spot. Ever.

    Sure, CC is fast. He steals bases. Occasionally, he will even drop down a bunt for a base hit. Yes, he does a lot of the things that baseball fans associate with the traditional, typical leadoff man.

    The most important thing a leadoff hitter can do, however, is get on base. Above all else. And, with his poor plate discipline, Crawford has shown that this is an issue for him.

    Reynolds then went on with his usual tirade on small-ball tactics. Which is fine.

    But this leads into my next example, regarding Chip Caray. Let me preface this by saying that Caray has excellent communication skills and is a fairly solid play-by-play man. But, as the following paragraphs will show, he should leave the whole analyst thing to people who, well, know what they are talking about.

    Caray was a guest on XM's Baseball This Morning with Buck Martinez and Mark Patrick earlier today.

    Shortly into his appearance, Caray, who will do color work for TBS during the upcoming ALCS, began to criticize Moneyball and the value of on-base percentage.

    But to make his point-and this is the real kicker-he cited the Los Angeles Angels' first-round exit from the postseaon as an example of why the concepts of Moneyball do not work.

    Again, I will paraphrase here. But he basically spewed out the typical Moneyball does not work in the postseason nonsense, saying, "No Moneyball team has made it to the World Series and eventually won it."

    Then Caray cited the Boston Red Sox and Rays as teams that are good because they know how to manufacture runs, or something along those lines.

    Now, I do not know where to begin here. There is too much to criticize; this may take longer than I want to spend on this, in fact.

    Using the Angels as a poster boy team for Moneyball is like saying, "Barack Obama is a proponent of Reaganomics." In fact, the Angels, as well-run of an organization as they are, would do well to pay more attention to advanced statistical analysis.

    That way, they might have avoided the whole Gary Matthews Jr. fiasco. After all, Matthews Jr. was perhaps the Least Valuable Player in the AL this year while earning enough money to make Barry Zito look underpaid, as he finished with a .675 OPS. If CC Sabathia, granted a pitcher who can absolutely mash, were to play everyday, he would have posted a higher number there.

    Bogus contract aside, though, the Angels and Mike Scoscia are perhaps the poster child for incorporating small-ball tactics and manufacturing runs. And they could care less about OBP, one of the few teams left to.

    How could Caray use them to make his case?

    They actually finished ranked 18th in the majors on-base percentage, and the coaching staff preaches aggressiveness, but why let facts get in the way of an old-fashioned Moneyball bashing? Did Caray even watch their last series? The Angels hurt themselves by swinging at too many first pitches, seemingly hacking at everything. And Scoscia ran his team out of an inning with the whole squeeze bunt on a 2-0 pitch.

    That really was such a ridiculous claim. But, more than that, it shows his ignorance about the Michael Lewis bestseller from 2002, which profiles the Oakland Athletics that season.

    Moneyball is really not about on-base percentage or being cheap, as most people believe. Sure, OBP and valuing outs more than traditional baseball people have for generations is a major concept to be taken out of the book. However, too many people-especially those who have never read it (we are looking at you, Joe Morgan)-focus on these aspects as opposed to the real theme-finding inefficiencies in the market for baseball players.

    Lewis, one of the most intelligent and respected business writers of this generation, wanted to answer one question by following around Billy Beane and the A's: How could one team with such a low payroll consistently make the postseason, while other small-market teams could not?

    The answer, of course, lies is Beane's ability at exploiting inefficiencies. At the time, OBP was one such inefficiency. Traditional teams overpaid for stats-batting average, for instance-that actually did not have that much of a correlation between scoring runs and winning games as many people were led to believe.

    Studies have show repeatedly that team on-base percentage goes hand-in-hand with how many runs a club will score over a full season.

    Thus, at the time of the book OBP was a major inefficiency for Beane to exploit. Well, that is hardly the case today, as nearly every front office nowadays uses it as a major criterion-well, at the least the smart ones who do not do things like, say, offer huge contracts to Jose Guillen-for making personnel decisions. In fact, any general manager who still ignores the stat when evaluating talent and making roster decisions should be fired for incompetence. Today.

    But, I digress.

    One of those teams that values OBP-the Red Sox, who led the majors with a .358 clip.

    In fact, Theo Epstein is one of the ultimate so-called Moneyball GMs today. And, guess what? Last time I checked, Mr. Caray, they have won two World Series championships in the past four years and are in a position to win a third. Boston, an organization that hired the father of sabermetrics, Bill James, as a senior advisor, is a so-called Moneyball team with money-a nearly unstoppable combination.

    The key for any front office is to strike the right balance between traditional scouting and advanced statistical analysis-which does not work at the amateur level-to build a cost-efficient organization that can sustain its success.

    Under Epstein, Boston has done exactly that, devoting the right financial resources into improving its farm system via excellent talent evaluation and the draft while making cost-efficient, intelligent decisions (for the most part) at the major league level.

    The success of the other team that Caray mentioned, the Rays, is a direct result of the effective use of statistical analysis to make shrewd roster decisions and excellent trades. Andrew Friedman has shown the ability to find value anywhere, buying low and selling high. All of the talent acquired through low draft picks is beginning to prosper, but the Rays' success is a result of more than that. Friedman built the rest of his roster by shopping at the equivalent of Wal-Mart for baseball players while locking up a great deal of that young talent before they were eligible for arbitration or free agency.

    So, again, they are a Moneyball team by definition, if people still use that ridiculous phrase to describe a team. Yet he used them as an example why teams should not value on-base percentage. Right?

    So, to recap.

    1. Chip Caray gets paid to talk about baseball.
    2. Chip Caray has probably never read Moneyball, yet criticizes it constantly-just like Morgan, who admits that.
    3. Chip Caray thinks that a team built on Moneyball principles will never win the World Series, even though the Red Sox have already won two.
    4. Chip Caray hates on-base percentage.
    5. Someone pays Chip Caray to talk about baseball.

    You cannot make this stuff up.

    3.7 (1 Ratings)